September Weather History for the 1St - 30Th
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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO ST. PETERSBURG BEACH Francis P. Ho and Robert J. Tracey Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md. April 1975 UNITED STATES /NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / National Weather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Service Frederick B. Dent, Secretar1 Robert M. White, Administrator George P, Cressman, Director CONTENTS 1. Introduction. • • • • • • • 1 1.1 Objective and scope •• 1 1.2 Authorization •• 1 1.3 Study method •• 2 2. Summary of historical hurricanes •• 2 2.1 Hurricane tracks 2 2.2 Historical notes 3 3. Climatology of hurricane characteristics. 8 3.1 Frequency of hurricane tracks •••. 8 3.2 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity. 8 3.3 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. 9 3.4 Probability distribution of speed and direction of forward motion • . • • • • • • • • 9 4. Hurricane surge • • • • 9 4.1 Surge model ••• 9 4.2 Shoaling factor •• 10 5. Tide frequency analysis by joint probability method • 10 5.1 The joint probability method • 10 5.2 Astronomical tides •••••• 11 5.2.1 Reference datum •.•••• 11 Table 1. Tropical storm parameters - Clearwater, Fla 12 Table 2. Tropical storm parameters - Bayport, Fla •• 13 Table 3. Tropical storm parameters - Cedar Key, Fla. 14 Table 4. Tropical storm parameters- Rock ·Islands, Fla .. 15 Table 5. Tropical storm parameters - Carrabelle, Fla • 16 Table 6. Tropical storm parameters - Apalachicola, Fla 17 5.2.2 Astronomical tide • • • •.• 19 5.3 Prestorm water level ••••••. 19 5.4 Tide frequencies • • • • . • ••• 19 5.5 Adjustment along coast ••••••.•••.•••. 19 5.6 Comparison of frequency curves with observed tides and high-water marks • • • • • • • • • • • . -
Jeff Donnelly [[email protected]] Sent: Friday, April 28, 2006 4:55 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Martha's Vineyard and Hurricanes
From: Jeff Donnelly [[email protected]] Sent: Friday, April 28, 2006 4:55 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Martha's Vineyard and Hurricanes Hi Paul... The current hospital location is relatively safe from hurricanes making landfall to the west of Martha's Vineyard. For example storm surge from the 1938 hurricane at that location was between 4 and 6 feet. The location is much more susceptible to nor'easters. You might get 6 feet of surge associated with an intense nor'easter potentially with some large waves on top of that. However, my biggest concern is if an intense hurricane were to slowly pass to the east of the island. This would result in strong north and northeast winds that could pile significant storm surge and waves into Vineyard Haven Harbor. The October 3, 1841 hurricane was just such a storm. One of the key factors is the forward motion of the storm. If the storm track is to the east of the island and it is moving rapidly the speed of forward motion would be subtracted from the rotary winds of the west side of the storm and the duration of strong winds would be less (a couple of hours or less). If the storm moves slowly the duration of onshore hurricane force winds could be more like 6 to 10 hours. In this scenario the hospital might be in peril. You could get between 10 and 15 feet of storm surge in Vineyard Haven Harbor during such an event. From my read of the topographic map it looks like the hospital is between 10 and 20 feet above sea level. -
Presentation
10B.5 VORTICITY-BASED DETECTION OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS Michelle M. Hite1*, Mark A. Bourassa1,2, Philip Cunningham2, James J. O’Brien1,2, and Paul D. Reasor2 1Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 2Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 1. INTRODUCTION (2001) relied upon closed circulations apparent in the scatterometer data. Using a threshold of Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG), although an vorticity over a defined area, Sharp et al. (2002) already well researched area, remains a highly identified numerous tropical disturbances and debatable and unresolved topic. While assessed whether or not they were likely to considerable attention has been paid to tropical develop into tropical cyclones. Detection was cyclone formation, little attention has focused on based on surface structure, requiring sufficiently observational studies of the very early stages of strong vorticity averaged over a large surface TCG, otherwise referred to as the genesis stage. area. Unlike Sharp et al. (2002), Katsaros et al. In the past, the early stages of TCG were (2001) and Liu et al. (2001) concentrated on unverifiable in surface observations, due to the disturbances that would develop into classified paucity of meteorological data over the tropical tropical cyclones. They examined surface wind oceans. The advent of wide swath scatterometers patterns and looked for areas of closed circulation, helped alleviate this issue by affording the successfully detecting tropical disturbances before scientific community with widespread designation as depressions. These studies observational surface data across the tropical illustrated the usefulness of SeaWinds data basins. One such instrument is the SeaWinds towards tropical disturbance detection, with the scatterometer, aboard the QuikSCAT satellite, intent of improving operational activities. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
Disaster, Terror, War, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive (CBRNE) Events
Disaster, Terror, War, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive (CBRNE) Events Date Location Agent Notes Source 28 Apr Kano, Nigeria VBIED Five soldiers were killed and 40 wounded when a Boko http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2017/ 2017 Haram militant drove his VBIED into a convoy. Apr-28/403711-suicide-bomber-kills-five-troops- in-ne-nigeria-sources.ashx 25 Apr Pakistan Land mine A passenger van travelling within Parachinar hit a https://www.dawn.com/news/1329140/14- 2017 landmine, killing fourteen and wounding nine. killed-as-landmine-blast-hits-van-carrying- census-workers-in-kurram 24 Apr Sukma, India Small arms Maoist rebels ambushed CRPF forces and killed 25, http://odishasuntimes.com/2017/04/24/12-crpf- 2017 wounding six or so. troopers-killed-in-maoist-attack/ 15 Apr Aleppo, Syria VBIED 126 or more people were killed and an unknown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Aleppo_suici 2017 number wounded in ISIS attacks against a convoy of de_car_bombing buses carrying refugees. 10 Apr Somalia Suicide Two al-Shabaab suicide bombs detonated in and near http://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia- 2017 bombings Mogadishu killed nine soldiers and a civil servant. security-blast-idUSKBN17C0JV?il=0 10 Apr Wau, South Ethnic violence At least sixteen people were killed and ten wounded in http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan- 2017 Sudan ethnic violence in a town in South Sudan. violence-idUSKBN17C0SO?il=0 10 Apr Kirkuk, Iraq Small arms Twelve ISIS prisoners were killed by a firing squad, for http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/islamic- 2017 reasons unknown. -
Impacts of Global Warming on Hurricane-Related Flooding in Corpus Christi,Texas
Impacts of Global Warming on Hurricane-related Flooding in Corpus Christi, Texas Sea-level Rise and Flood Elevation A one-foot rise in flood elevation due to both sea-level rise and hurricane intensification leads to an inundation of 5000 –15,000 feet. Global Sea-level Rise Global warming causes sea level to rise through Limitations of the Analysis two major mechanisms. First, as water warms, it expands, taking up more space. Second, as ice This analysis looked only at damages due to flooding by storm on land melts (including mountain glaciers surge and sea-level rise. It is not a comprehensive analysis of the wide array of hurricane-related damages. Other simplifying around the world as well as the polar ice assumptions were made and there were limitations due to lack of sheets), this water flows to the oceans. data. For example, no data on historical flood damage to oil The thermal expansion of the oceans and the refineries was available to the researchers. melting of mountain glaciers are well understood. Increased melting and loss of ice on In addition, the study assumes that the barrier island retains its elevation and volume as sea level rises, though under high rates of parts of the polar ice sheets has recently been sea-level rise, the relative condition of the barrier island would be observed, especially on Greenland, although how expected to weaken, posing additional risk for erosion of the island much and how fast the ice sheets will increase and for flooding in the bay, both of which would increase economic sea-level rise is not well known, and this damages. -
UNDERSTANDING the GENESIS of HURRICANE VINCE THROUGH the SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION Kwan-Yin Kong City College of New York 1 1
9B.4 UNDERSTANDING THE GENESIS OF HURRICANE VINCE THROUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION Kwan-yin Kong City College of New York 1 1. INTRODUCTION 20°W Hurricane Vince was one of the many extraordinary hurricanes that formed in the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Unlike Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, Vince was remarkable not because of intensity, nor the destruction it inflicted, but because of its defiance to our current understandings of hurricane formation. Vince formed in early October of 2005 in the far North Atlantic Ocean and acquired characteristics of a hurricane southeast of the Azores, an area previously unknown to hurricane formation. Figure 1 shows a visible image taken at 14:10 UTC on 9 October 2005 when Vince was near its peak intensity. There is little doubt that a hurricane with an eye surrounded by convection is located near 34°N, 19°W. A buoy located under the northern eyewall of the hurricane indicated a sea-surface temperature (SST) of 22.9°C, far below what is considered to be the 30°N minimum value of 26°C for hurricane formation (see insert of Fig. 3f). In March of 2004, a first-documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean also formed over SST below this Figure 1 Color visible image taken at 14:10 UTC 9 October 2005 by Aqua. 26°C threshold off the coast of Brazil. In addition, cyclones in the Mediterranean and polar lows in sub-arctic seas had been synoptic flow serves to “steer” the forward motion of observed to acquire hurricane characteristics. -
Florida's Water Resources1
FE757 Florida’s Water Resources1 Tatiana Borisova and Tara Wade2 Introduction: Why Water Resources Are Important “Water is the lifeblood of our bodies, our economy, our nation and our well-being” (Stephen Lee Johnson, Head of EPA under G.W. Bush Administration). This quote sums up the importance of water resources. We use water for drinking, gardening, and other household uses, in agriculture (e.g., for irrigation), and in energy production and industrial processes (e.g., for cooling in thermoelectric power generation). Clean and plentiful water resources are also important for our recreational activities (e.g., boating, swimming, or fishing). Water also Figure 1. In November, manatees migrate to warmer coastal waters, sustains wildlife (such as manatees) and is an integral part such as Crystal River on the west coast of Florida (Source: UF/IFAS/ICS) of Florida’s environment (Figure 1). The use of water is increasing along with Florida’s of Florida’s water resources is a first step toward optimizing population. Floridians rely on underground freshwater current freshwater supply use and ensuring adequate water reserves, called aquifers, to supply our diverse water needs resources in the future. (USGS 2016a). In some Florida regions, this underground freshwater reserve can no longer sustain the growing water demands of the population, while also feeding Florida’s riv- Hydrologic Cycle: Where Water ers, springs, and lakes. With periodic droughts, shortages of Originates and Where It Goes freshwater may occur. Drought and water shortages in the Toni Morrison, an American novelist, once said that “all state have caused urban planners and policy makers to pay water has a perfect memory and is forever trying to get closer attention to water use, water supply development, back to where it was.” Indeed, water is constantly moving. -
Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: Discursive Spaces of Safety and Resulting Environmental Injustice
HURRICANE KATRINA AND NEW ORLEANS: DISCURSIVE SPACES OF SAFETY AND RESULTING ENVIRONMENTAL INJUSTICE A dissertation submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Andrew B. Shears August, 2011 Dissertation written by Andrew B. Shears B.S., Ball State University, 2003 M.S., Ball State University, 2005 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2011 Approved by ____________________________________, Chair, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Dr. James A. Tyner ____________________________________, Members, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Dr. Mandy Munro-Stasiuk ____________________________________ Dr. Robert M. SchwartZ ____________________________________ Dr. Scott C. Sheridan Accepted by ____________________________________, Chair, Department of Geography Dr. Mandy Munro-Stasiuk ____________________________________, Dean, College of Arts and Sciences Dr. Timothy Moerland ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………..………………………………………………….iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………………………………vi DEDICATION……………………………………………………………………………………………………...vii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..1 A. DEFINING ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE………………………………………….3 B. THE GAME PLAN………………………………………………………………………..19 C. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK……………………………………………..20 II. ABOUT NEW ORLEANS……………………………………………………………………...29 A. THE HISTORY OF NEW ORLEANS……………………………………………….33 B. NEW ORLEANS IN 2005…………….……………………………………………….85 C. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………………...111 III. HURRICANE KATRINA……………………………………………………………………..113 -
Chapter 2.1.3, Has Both Unique and Common Features That Relate to TC Internal Structure, Motion, Forecast Difficulty, Frequency, Intensity, Energy, Intensity, Etc
Chapter Two Charles J. Neumann USNR (Retired) U, S. National Hurricane Center Science Applications International Corporation 2. A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology 2.1 Introduction and purpose Globally, seven tropical cyclone (TC) basins, four in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and three in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be identified (see Table 1.1). Collectively, these basins annually observe approximately eighty to ninety TCs with maximum winds 63 km h-1 (34 kts). On the average, over half of these TCs (56%) reach or surpass the hurricane/ typhoon/ cyclone surface wind threshold of 118 km h-1 (64 kts). Basin TC activity shows wide variation, the most active being the western North Pacific, with about 30% of the global total, while the North Indian is the least active with about 6%. (These data are based on 1-minute wind averaging. For comparable figures based on 10-minute averaging, see Table 2.6.) Table 2.1. Recommended intensity terminology for WMO groups. Some Panel Countries use somewhat different terminology (WMO 2008b). Western N. Pacific terminology used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is also shown. Over the years, many countries subject to these TC events have nurtured the development of government, military, religious and other private groups to study TC structure, to predict future motion/intensity and to mitigate TC effects. As would be expected, these mostly independent efforts have evolved into many different TC related global practices. These would include different observational and forecast procedures, TC terminology, documentation, wind measurement, formats, units of measurement, dissemination, wind/ pressure relationships, etc. Coupled with data uncertainties, these differences confound the task of preparing a global climatology.