Chapter 2.1.3, Has Both Unique and Common Features That Relate to TC Internal Structure, Motion, Forecast Difficulty, Frequency, Intensity, Energy, Intensity, Etc
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Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Geometry Parameters Based on Best Track Data
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-119 Preprint. Discussion started: 27 May 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best track data Kees Nederhoff1, Alessio Giardino1, Maarten van Ormondt1, Deepak Vatvani1 1Deltares, Marine and Coastal Systems, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, The Netherlands 5 Correspondence to: Kees Nederhoff ([email protected]) Abstract. Parametric wind profiles are commonly applied in a number of engineering applications for the generation of tropical cyclone (TC) wind and pressure fields. Nevertheless, existing formulations for computing wind fields often lack the required accuracy when the TC geometry is not known. This may affect the accuracy of the computed impacts generated by these winds. In this paper, empirical stochastic relationships are derived to describe two important parameters affecting the 10 TC geometry: radius of maximum winds (RMW) and the radius of gale force winds (∆AR35). These relationships are formulated using best track data (BTD) for all seven ocean basins (Atlantic, S/NW/NE Pacific, N/SW/SE Indian Oceans). This makes it possible to a) estimate RMW and ∆AR35 when these properties are not known and b) generate improved parametric wind fields for all oceanic basins. Validation results show how the proposed relationships allow the TC geometry to be represented with higher accuracy than when using relationships available from literature. Outer wind speeds can be 15 well reproduced by the commonly used Holland wind profile when calibrated using information either from best-track-data or from the proposed relationships. The scripts to compute the TC geometry and the outer wind speed are freely available via the following URL. -
FAA REPORT.Wpd
INVESTIGATION OF EVENTS SURROUNDING THE CAPSIZE OF THE DRILLSHIP SEACREST VOLUME 1 OF 2 Prepared for: Looi Eng Leong Unocal Thailand, Ltd. Unocal Legal Department Central Plaza Office Building Bangkok 10900, Thailand Prepared by: Robert Taylor, P.E Vince Cardone, Ph.D. John Kokarakis, Ph.D. Jon Petersen, Ph.D. Brian Picard Gary Whitehouse Failure Analysis Associates®, Inc. 149 Commonwealth Drive Menlo Park, California 94025 October 1990 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At the request of Unocal Thailand's legal department, Failure Analysis Associates®, Inc. (FaAA) performed an investigation and analysis of events related to the loss of the drillship Seacrest. The scope of the investigation encompassed the analysis of: the physical condition and design of the ship; the weather and the affect on the dynamic response of the ship; the search and rescue effort; and safety training and operating procedures. This report covers the results of this investigation. On November 3, 1989, the drillship Seacrest capsized in Unocal's Platong Gas Field during Typhoon Gay. The Seacrest had a crew of 97 at the time of the incident and six survived the event. The cause of the capsize is attributed to the severe weather conditions encountered by the ship during the storm. A detailed stability review was performed as part of the investigation. The ship was designed, built, and operated in accordance with American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) Standards. In 1988, the ship was modified to include a top drive unit. The stability effect of this modification was analyzed, and it was found that stability improved due to conversion of the No. -
Improvement of Wind Field Hindcasts for Tropical Cyclones
Water Science and Engineering 2016, 9(1): 58e66 HOSTED BY Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Water Science and Engineering journal homepage: http://www.waterjournal.cn Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones Yi Pan a,b, Yong-ping Chen a,b,*, Jiang-xia Li a,b, Xue-lin Ding a,b a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China b College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China Received 16 August 2015; accepted 10 December 2015 Available online 21 February 2016 Abstract This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform (CCMP) reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Climate Early Warning System Feasibility Report: Early Warning Systems and Hazard Prediction
United Nations Environment Programme Climate Early Warning System Feasibility Report: Early Warning Systems and Hazard Prediction March 2012 Dr. Zinta Zommers University of Oxford 1 Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ....................................................................................................................... 3 2. METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................. 6 3. CURRENT EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS.......................................................................................................... 8 3.1. COMPONENTS OF EWS ...................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. KEY ACTORS IN EWS......................................................................................................................... 9 3.3. EWS BY NATION .............................................................................................................................. 10 3.4. EWS BY HAZARD............................................................................................................................. 15 3.4.1. Drought.......................................................................................................................................... 15 3.4.2. Famine........................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4.3. Fire................................................................................................................................................ -
Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed And
Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed and Storm Size Alice R. Zhai La Cañada High School, 4463 Oak Grove Drive, La Canada, CA 91011 Jonathan H. Jiang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91109 Corresponding Email: [email protected] Abstract: Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependencies of normalized U.S. hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the U.S. from 1988 to 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation c a b with maximum wind speed (Vmax) and size (R). Assuming L=10 Vmax R , c being a scaling factor, the coefficients, a and b, generally range between 4-12 and 2-4, respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. For large losses, a weighted regression model, with a being 4.28 and b being 2.52, produces a reasonable fitting to the actual losses. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about 3.4 times of the average size of the 73 storms analyzed. -
Tropical-Cyclone Forecasting: a Worldwide Summary of Techniques
John L. McBride and Tropical-Cyclone Forecasting: Greg J. Holland Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, A Worldwide Summary Melbourne 3001, of Techniques and Australia Verification Statistics Abstract basis for discussion at particular sessions planned for the work- shop. Replies to this questionnaire were received from 16 of- Questionnaire replies from forecasters in 16 tropical-cyclone warning fices. These are listed in Table 1, grouped according to their centers are summarized to provide an overview of the current state of ocean basins. Encouraged by the high information content of the science in tropical-cyclone analysis and forecasting. Information is tabulated on the data sources and techniques used, on their role and these responses, the authors sent a second questionnaire on the perceived usefulness, and on the levels of verification and accuracy of analysis and forecasting of cyclone position and motion. Re- cyclone forecasting. plies to this were received from 13 of the listed offices. This paper tabulates and syntheses information provided on the following aspects of tropical-cyclone forecasting: 1) the techniques used; 2) the level of verification; and 3) the level 1. Introduction of accuracy of analyses and forecasts. Separate sections cover forecasting of cyclone formation; analyzing cyclone structure Tropical cyclones are the major severe weather hazard for a and intensity; forecasting structure and intensity; analyzing cy- large "slice" of mankind. The Bangladesh cyclones of 1970 and 1985, Hurricane Camille (USA, 1969) and Cyclone Tracy (Australia, 1974) to name just four, would figure prominently TABLE 1. Forecast offices from which unofficial replies were re- in any list of major natural disasters of this century. -
Launching the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
210 91NA ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC BANGKOK, THAILAND NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: LAUNCHING THE INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION VOLUME I WATER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS UNITED NATIONS December 1991 FLOOD CONTROL SERIES 1* FLOOD DAMAGE AND FLOOD CONTROL ACnVITlHS IN ASIA AND THE FAR EAST United Nations publication, Sales No. 1951.II.F.2, Price $US 1,50. Availably in separate English and French editions. 2* MKTUODS AND PROBLEMS OF FLOOD CONTROL IN ASIA AND THIS FAR EAST United Nations publication, Sales No, 1951.ILF.5, Price SUS 1.15. 3.* PROCEEDINGS OF THF. REGIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON FLOOD CONTROL IN ASIA AND THE FAR EAST United Nations publication, Sales No. 1953.U.F.I. Price SUS 3.00. 4.* RIVER TRAINING AND BANK PROTECTION • United Nations publication, Sate No. 1953,TI.I;,6. Price SUS 0.80. Available in separate English and French editions : 1* THE SKDLMENT PROBLEM United Nations publication, Sales No. 1953.TI.F.7. Price $US 0.80. Available in separate English and French editions 6.* STANDARDS FOR METHODS AND RECORDS OF HYDROLOGIC MEASUREMENTS United Nations publication, Sales No. 1954.ILF.3. Price SUS 0.80. Available, in separate. English and French editions. 7.* MULTIPLE-PURPOSE RIVER DEVELOPMENT, PARTI, MANUAL OF RIVER BASIN PLANNING United Nations publication. Sales No. 1955.II.I'M. Price SUS 0.80. Available in separate English and French editions. 8.* MULTI-PURPOSE RIVER DEVELOPMENT, PART2A. WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN CF.YLON, CHINA. TAIWAN, JAPAN AND THE PHILIPPINES |;_ United Nations publication, Sales No. -
Vulnerability Assessment of Arizona's Critical Infrastructure
FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN BANGKOK: ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE AND ADDRESSING CHALLENGES R.T. Cooper1, P. Cheewinsiriwat2, I. Trisirisatayawong3, W.A. Marome4, K. Nakhapakorn5 1. Southeast Asia START Regional Centre, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand 2. Department of Geography, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand 3. Department of Survey Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand 4. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand 5. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand ABSTRACT: The Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. The Southeast Asia region is projected to experience heavier precipitation, increased monsoon- related precipitation extremes, and greater rainfall and wind speed associated with tropical cyclones. In terms of population and assets exposed, Bangkok is projected to be one of the top ten cities globally exposed to the impacts of coastal flooding. Flooding is considered the most critical hazard for the city, both from coastal and inland flooding, with potential for peak river run-off, high tide, and heavy cyclone- associated rainfall to coincide towards the end of the year. Flooding caused by riverine run-off and rainfall is a reoccurring phenomenon, as recently experienced in 2011, when one of the worst flooding events in Thai history caused hundreds of mortalities, widespread displacement, and severe economic damage. This paper examines development of a research strategy and presents preliminary findings for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal and inland flooding of the BMR, which forms a central component of the five-year international Canadian-funded Coastal Cities at Risk project. -
Calculating Tropical Cyclone Critical Wind RADII and Storm Size Using NSCAT Winds
Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1998-03 Calculating tropical cyclone critical wind RADII and storm size using NSCAT winds Magnan, Scott G. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/8044 'HUUU But 3ADU; NK fCK^943-5101 DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL M0N7TOEY CA 93943-5101 MOX LIBRA ~H0OL Y CA9394^.01 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS CALCULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE CRITICAL WIND RADII AND STORM SIZE USING NSCAT WINDS by Scott G. Magnan March, 1998 Thesis Advisor: Russell L. Elsberry Thesis Co-Advisor: Lester E. Carr, HI Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 93943-Si MONTEREY CA REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1 . AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March, 1998. Master's Thesis 4. TTTLE AND SUBTITLE CALCULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNDING NUMBERS CRITICAL WIND RADII AND STORM SIZE USING NSCAT WINDS 6. AUTHOR(S) Scott G. Magnan 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. -
Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in the USA – an Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Effects
Economic losses from tropical cyclones in the USA – An assessment of the impact of climate change and socio-economic effects vorgelegt von Silvio Schmidt Von der Fakultät VII – Wirtschaft und Management der Technischen Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaft (Dr. rer. oec.) genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen Berichter: Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Prof. Dr. Georg Meran Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 19. Mai 2010 Berlin 2010 D83 Acknowledgements Many people deserve thanks and appreciation for this thesis, without their support and help, this work would not have been possible. Thanks to Laurens Bouwer, Oliver Büsse, Joel Gratz, Marlen Kube, Clau- dia Laube, Petra Löw, Peter Miesen, Brigitte Miksch, Roger Pielke Jr., Frank Oberholzner, Robert Sattler, Boris Siliverstovs, Michael Sonnenholzner and Angelika Wirtz for their useful comments and sugges- tions, engaging discussions and for providing me with the necessary data and with support for the data processing. Special thanks to Prof. Claudia Kemfert for her guidance during my studies, for her supporting feedback on various drafts of this paper and for her advice and motivation. Also, special thanks to Prof. Peter Höppe who was always available as a motivating discussion partner, for his advice and for arranging a funding for research activities. He also made it possible for me to have access to Munich Re’s NatCatSERVICE® database. I am also very grateful to Eberhard Faust who shared his profound knowledge on extreme weather events and the related insurance requirements with me. His support and advice contributed immensely to the completion of this thesis. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.