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Climate Early Warning System Feasibility Report: Early Warning Systems and Hazard Prediction

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Climate Early Warning System Feasibility Report: Early Warning Systems and Hazard Prediction United Nations Environment Programme Climate Early Warning System Feasibility Report: Early Warning Systems and Hazard Prediction March 2012 Dr. Zinta Zommers University of Oxford 1 Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ....................................................................................................................... 3 2. METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................. 6 3. CURRENT EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS.......................................................................................................... 8 3.1. COMPONENTS OF EWS ...................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. KEY ACTORS IN EWS......................................................................................................................... 9 3.3. EWS BY NATION .............................................................................................................................. 10 3.4. EWS BY HAZARD............................................................................................................................. 15 3.4.1. Drought.......................................................................................................................................... 15 3.4.2. Famine........................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4.3. Fire................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.4.4. Floods ............................................................................................................................................ 26 3.4.5. Cyclones/Hurricanes...................................................................................................................... 30 3.5. EWS EVALUATION ........................................................................................................................... 33 4. HAZARD PREDICATION CAPABILITIES ........................................................................................................ 40 4.1. BACKGROUND ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ........................................... 40 4.1.1. Weather Forecasting ..................................................................................................................... 40 4.1.2. Climate Forecasting....................................................................................................................... 41 4.2. SEASONAL FORECASTS ................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.1. Infrastructure.................................................................................................................................. 42 4.2.2. Standard products ......................................................................................................................... 44 4.2.3. Verification ..................................................................................................................................... 45 4.3. MULTI-YEAR AND DECADAL FORECASTS .......................................................................................... 46 4.4. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................... 48 5. STEPS FORWARD............................................................................................................................................ 49 5.1. KEY FINDINGS.................................................................................................................................. 49 5.2. POSSIBLE ACTIONS.......................................................................................................................... 50 5.3. POSSIBLE CLIM-WARN DESIGN...................................................................................................... 52 5.3.1. Biome or ecosystem targeted approach ........................................................................................ 52 5.3.2. Risk assessment rather than warning............................................................................................ 53 5.3.3. Seamless integrated system.......................................................................................................... 53 6. ACRONYMS ...................................................................................................................................................... 55 7. REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................... 56 8. APPENDIX 1. LIST OF INDIVIDUALS CONSULTED....................................................................................... 60 2 1 Introduction and Purpose “No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where hunger and conflict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation and all peoples…are in jeopardy.” President Barack Obama addressing the United Nations (New York Times 2009) 2012 will be remembered as “the year that winter was cancelled” in Canada”1. It was the year that grass fires raged in the Prairies in mid winter, and farmers already began planting crops in March (Hirtzer 2012). Canadians experienced, on average, temperatures 3.6 degrees oC higher than normal and 18 percent less precipitation (Gulli 2012). Around the world these trends are not uncommon. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that, “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (IPCC 2007). In addition to changes in temperature, observations since 1950 indicate increases in extreme weather events (IPCC 2011). The recent IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC SREX) predicts further increases in extreme events in the 21st century, including a growing frequency of heat waves, rising wind speed of tropical cyclones, and increasing intensity of droughts. A one-in- 20 years “hottest day” event is likely to occur every other year by the end of the 21st century. Heavy precipitation events are also on the rise, potentially impacting the frequency of floods and almost certainly affecting landslides (IPCC 2011). These trends have significant impacts on human lives, national economies and even on national identities (Figure 1). For example, winter, and the extreme cold, have been embraced in Canada as something distinctive to the country (Gulli 2012). Canada without winter may shake national identity to the core (Gulli 2012). For First nations communities in the Canadian North, “warm winters are a tragedy, a catastrophe,” writes Adam Gopnik. As the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6) concluded, “Disaster loss has grave consequences for the survival, dignity and livelihoods of individuals, particularly the poor, and hard-won development gains.” Over the period 1991-2005 3,470 million people were affected by disasters globally, 960,000 people died, and economic losses totalled US$ 1,193 billion (UNISDR 2008). Losses from extreme weather are expected to continue to increase in future (IPCC 2012). However regions differ in vulnerability. Total economic losses from natural disasters are greatest in developed countries, while deaths from natural disasters are highest in developing countries (IPCC 2011). In fact, from 1970 to 2008, more than 95% of deaths from natural disasters occurred in developing countries (IPCC 2012). Mortality risk is approximately 225 times greater in low-income countries than in OECD countries when similar numbers of people are exposed to tropical cyclones (Peduzzi et al. 2012, from UNISDR 2011). 1 According to David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada (Gulli 2012). 3 Figure 1. Total number of people affected by disasters of natural origin Nearly all current efforts to cope with climate change focus on either mitigation to reduce emissions or on long-term adaptation to adjust to changes in climate. Although it is imperative to continue with these efforts, the ongoing pace of climate change and the slow international response suggests that a third option is becoming increasingly important: the creation of climate change early warning systems to protect populations against the immediate threat of climate-related extreme events, including heat waves, forest fires, floods and droughts. Already in 2005, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for the establishment of a worldwide early warning system (EWS) for all natural hazards (UN 2005). The 2010 Cancun Agreements specifically invite “all Parties to enhance action on adaptation…by…enhancing climate change related disaster risk reduction strategies (such as) early warning systems.” IPCC SREX Report (2012) concludes that, “The implementation of early warning systems does reduce loss of lives and, to a lesser extent, damage to property and was identified by all the extreme event case studies (heat waves, wildfires, drought, cyclones, floods and epidemic disease) as key
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