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Full Version of Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting WMO-No. 1194 © World Meteorological Organization, 2017 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix P.O. Box 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland ISBN 978-92-63-11194-4 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. This publication has not been subjected to WMO standard editorial procedures. The views expressed herein do not necessarily have the endorsement of the Organization. Preface Tropical cyclones are amongst the most damaging weather phenomena that directly affect hundreds of millions of people and cause huge economic loss every year. Mitigation and reduction of disasters induced by tropical cyclones and consequential phenomena such as storm surges, floods and high winds have been long-standing objectives and mandates of WMO Members prone to tropical cyclones and their National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services. To this end, accurate and timely available forecasting of tropical cyclones are fundamental to enable those objectives and mandates to be materialized. The Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting is a collection of the state-of-art sciences and technologies and best practices that are available for use by operational tropical cyclone forecasters. It is both a heritage and development of forecasting techniques and warning methodologies for tropical cyclones. It serves as a series of tools and a platform for information source for operational forecasters to acquire essential skills and competencies and latest techniques in tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting and warnings. The Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was first compiled and edited by Dr Greg Holland in 1992, with contributions from a large number of scientists and experts. However, significant changes in many aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting have occurred since 1992, as results of advances in computing, radar and satellite capabilities, and meteorological science itself. Therefore, the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was recommended to be updated by a group of experts and forecasters who attended the serial WMO International Workshops on Tropical Cyclones in 2006 and 2010. The updating was finally completed in 2015. The updating of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting includes contributions from experts from around the world. Particular thanks are due to Charles "Chip" Guard (United States of America), Chief Editor, for his leadership and scientific contributions, and the chapter authors for their time, dedication and expertise, and many others who kindly provided their advice and assistance. The updated Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting is adopting modern Web-based technology with easy access by readers. It was initially configured by a technical team led by Dr Beth Ebert of Australia Bureau of Meteorology. For this special thanks go to Dr Beth Ebert and her team. The current e-book is reformatted following latest Web standards. It now becomes more user-friendly. I hope this e-book and its PDF version, together with other publications on tropical cyclones, will become a valuable source of information, tools, data, techniques, methodologies, and best practices in tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting and warning services. Petteri Taalas Geneva, 16 May 2017 1 Introduction This website of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is aimed to serve as a platform for the information sources for tropical cyclone forecasters to obtain data and tools which are useful for monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones. Forecasters may access the various sources providing conventional and specialized data/products including those from numerical predictions and remote sensing observations as well as forecasting tools concerning tropical cyclone development, motion, intensification and wind distribution. It will continue to develop along with the availability of new data and products and will also contain techniques and best practices from tropical cyclone forecast centers that could be adapted by other forecast centers. This Training manual has been developed using contributions from various authors around the world. It will be updated from time to time as the science and practice of Tropical Cyclone monitoring and forecasting evolves. The multi-author nature of this document means that both British and American spellings will appear across various parts of the document. Figure 1 is a taste of the imagery types included in the Guide. Figure 1 shows an example of a 37-GHz polarized corrected temperature (PCT) image of Super Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013, where blue-green streamers indicate low cloud bands and reds and pinks indicate well-developed convective clouds. Dark green patches, represent areas that are the same temperature as the ocean surface. The green spot inside the pink ring indicates the partially cloud-free eye. Analysis of multiple images (preferably within six hours of the analysis time) can increase the chances of correctly identifying the TC center. Sequential multiple images can be animated to improve center location of poorly organized systems (Edson, personal, communication). (Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory). 2 Table of Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter One ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 1. Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Overview ................................................................................. 11 1.1 Introduction and purpose ............................................................................................................................. 11 1.1.2 Tropical Cyclone Climatology (Neumann) ............................................................................................. 12 1.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Motion (Kimberlain and Brennen) ............................................................................. 12 1.1.4 Tropical Cyclone Structure (Evans) ........................................................................................................ 13 1.1.5 Storm Surge and Open Ocean Waves (Lyons) ....................................................................................... 13 1.1.6 Tropical Cyclone Hydrology (Lai et al.) .................................................................................................. 14 1.1.7 Seasonal Forecasting (Klotzbach et al.) ................................................................................................. 14 1.1.8 Forecasting Strategy (Burton et al.) ....................................................................................................... 14 1.1.9 Warning Strategy (Guard) ...................................................................................................................... 15 1.1.10 Training materials (Guard) ................................................................................................................... 15 1.1.11 Ready Reckoner ................................................................................................................................... 15 1.2 The global tropical cyclone forecasting network .......................................................................................... 15 1.2.1 Tropical cyclone warnings ..................................................................................................................... 18 1.2.2 Naming of tropical cyclones .................................................................................................................. 24 1.2.3 Terminology ........................................................................................................................................... 25 1.3 References .................................................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter Two ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 2. A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology............................................................................................................ 28 2.1 Introduction and purpose ............................................................................................................................
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