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Downloaded 10/09/21 06:03 AM UTC There Is No Trend in the SST Over the NIO Basin TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACT A Study in Andhra Pradesh, India BY S. RAGHAVAN AND S. RAJESH Increasing damage due to tropical cyclones over Andhra Pradesh, India, is attributable mainly to economic and demographic factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones. t is generally accepted that, all over the world, map, Fig. 1). The damage during the past quarter cen- property damage from tropical cyclones (TC) has tury, in the coastal state of Andhra Pradesh in India Iincreased over the years. There is a common per- (Fig. 2), has been normalized for inflation, population ception in the media, and even in government and management circles, that this is due to an increase in tropical cyclone frequency and per- haps in intensity, probably as a result of global climate change. However, studies all over the world show that though there are decadal variations, there is no defi- nite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones. In this paper, we review recent worldwide literature on trends in tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and impact, with special reference to the North Indian Ocean (NIO) ba- sin, that is, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) FIG. I. Map of the North Indian Ocean basin. The state of Andhra and Arabian Sea (AS; see locator Pradesh, India, is shown enlarged in Fig. 2. AFFILIATIONS: RAGHAVAN—India Meteorological Department 15, 2nd Cross St., Radhakrishnan Nagar, Chennai 600041, India (retired), Chennai, India; RAJESH—Madras School of Economics, E-mail: [email protected] Chennai, India DOI: 10.1 I75/BAMS-84-5-635 CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: S. Raghavan, 11/16, Bayline Apts., In final form 27 September 2002 ©2003 American Meteorological Society AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY MAY 2003 BAfft I 635 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:03 AM UTC there is no trend in the SST over the NIO basin. Some studies over shorter periods show slightly different results. Mooley and Mohile (1983, 1984) found an (apparent) increase in cy- clones in 1965-80, compared to ear- lier decades, and attributed it to bet- ter detection by satellites. This points to the need for separating apparent trends created by better observing techniques or even by changes in definitions of tropical cyclones, from real trends (Nicholls et al. 1998). Jayanthi (1997) found large decadal variations in the frequency of NIO FIG. 2. Map of Andhra Pradesh showing the coastal districts. Points of basin cyclones with a maximum in landfall of cyclones listed in Table 2 are indicated. 1921-30 and a minimum in 1981 - 90, but did not report any long-term growth, and increase in real income, in an attempt to trend. Joseph and Xavier (1999) found a 40-yr peri- identify the factors involved. Evidence from this odicity in the frequency of TCs in the NIO basin with analysis supports the view that the increase in vulner- maxima around 1930 and 1970 and minima around ability and damage is due to societal factors rather 1950 and 1990. They also reported a decreasing trend than any actual increase in cyclone frequency or in monsoon depressions but none in pre- and intensity. postmonsoon systems. P.V. Joseph (2001, personal communication) found more north-moving TCs in TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FRE- 1900-30 and 1960-90 and more west-moving TCs in QUENCY AND INTENSITY. The most recent 1930-60, these 30-yr periods coinciding with periods study of TC frequency and intensity in this region was of below-normal and above-normal Indian monsoon by Srivastava et al. (2000). They examined data for rainfall, respectively. While these findings may imply 1891-1997 and found a significant decreasing trend changes in frequencies over specific parts of the coast (at 99% confidence level) in the frequency of cyclones with intensity of "cyclonic storm" TABLE 1. India Meteorological Department (IMD) classification of and above in the NIO basin cyclonic disturbances (from 1998 onward). Speed categories are (see Table 1 for classification of defined in knots; values converted to meters per second and tropical cyclones in this basin). rounded to the nearest integer are given in parentheses. (Source: The maximum decrease was in IMD 1999.) the last four decades. Since Maximum sustained surface there is no significant trend in Weather system type wind speed (MSSW) the number of cyclonic distur- bances, they infer that intensi- 1. Low (L) < 17 knots (< 9 m s ') fication of depressions into 2. Depression (D) 17-27 knots (9-14 m s1) cyclones is less frequent in re- cent decades. These authors 3. Deep depression (DD) 28-33 knots (14-17 m s1) have given as a possible expla- 4. Cyclonic storm (CS) 34-47 knots (17-24 m s"1) nation, a weakening of the Hadley circulation, due to an 5. Severe cyclonic storm (SCS) 48-63 knots (25-32 m s ') increase of upper tropospheric 6. Very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)* 64-1 19 knots (33-61 m s ') temperatures (attributed to 7. Super cyclone (SuCS)* 120 knots (62 m s~') and above global warming). They rule out sea surface temperature *VSCS and SuCS were included in a single category called "severe cyclonic (SST) change as a factor, as storm with a core of hurricane winds" (SCSCHW) prior to 1998. 636 I BAPIS- MAY 2003 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:03 AM UTC over decadal periods, no long-term trend of increase fected by cyclones than some other states of India. It or decrease in frequency over the basin as a whole, also has a relatively well-developed disaster manage- over the period for which data are available, has been ment organization [see Raghavan and Sen Sarma noted. Singh and Khan (1999), who studied 122 yr of (2000) for a description]. We selected 1971-2000 be- data, found that annual frequency of NIO basin TCs is cause reliable data exist after the advent of radar and decreasing at the rate of about one cyclone per hundred satellite observations. There were seven cyclones of years. However, they noticed an increasing trend in intensity greater than 32 m s_1 in this period; meteo- Bay of Bengal cyclones, only for the months of Novem- rological parameters relating to them are shown in ber and May (the principal months of occurrence). Table 3 and their tracks in Fig. 3. Table 2 shows nine Tropical Cyclones (of cyclonic storm or higher in- cyclones landfalling in the state in each of the decades tensity) landfalling in the state of Andhra Pradesh 1971-80 and 1981-90. There were only two cyclones (AP) during 1971-2000 are listed in Table 2. We in 1991-2000. There were two storms of intensity chose Andhra Pradesh for this study because it has a greater than 32 m s_1 in each of the decades 1971-80 long coastline (1030 km) and is more frequently af- and 1991-2000 and three in 1981-90. Thus, there was TABLE 2. Statistics of landfalling tropical cyclones in Andhra Pradesh (1971-2000). Landfall locations are shown in Fig. 2. Cyclone intensity codes are defined in Table 1, in terms of MSSW. The information is from IMD (1997), and IMD's annual Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones (RSMC) Reports. The latter are reports on cyclonic disturbances issued by RSMC at IMD, New Delhi, so designated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Cyclones that might have affected the weather in AP but did not make a landfall in that state are not included in this table. Year Month Date Intensity Category Landfall near Gap years 1971 Oct 10 CS Visakhapatnam 1972 Nov 22 SCS Sriharikota 1976 Nov 4 scs Machilipatnam 4 1976 Nov 16 SCS Kavali 1977 Oct 31 SCS Kavali 1977 Nov 19 SCSCHW Chirala 1979 May 12 SCSCHW Ongole 2 1979 Nov 25 CS Sriharikota 1980 Oct 18 CS Machilipatnam 1982 Oct 16 CS Kakinada 2 1982 Oct 18 SCS Kavali 1983 Oct 3 CS Visakhapatnam 1984 Nov 14 SCSCHW Sriharikota 1987 Oct 15 CS Ongole 3 1987 Nov 2 SCS Nellore 1987 Nov 12 SCS Machilipatnam 1989 Nov 8 SCSCHW Kavali 2 1990 May 9 SCSCHW Machilipatnam 1996 Nov 6 SCSCHW Kakinada 6 1998 Nov 15 VSCS Visakhapatnam 2 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY MAY 2003 BAI15* I 93 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:03 AM UTC TABLE 3. Meteorological parameters of major cyclones hitting Andhra Pradesh (1971-2000). Tropical (T) no. and current intensity (CI) no. are derived subjectively from satellite imagery (Dvorak 1984). MSSW and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are estimated from the T or CI no., where no direct wind measurement is available. MSSW and MSLP are measures of the intensity of the cyclone and are related to expected storm surge height and wind damage in the eyewall region. Strength is the average wind speed in the gale force area and is a good measure of the area of damage. Eye diameter is at the time of landfall. Radius of maximum (radar) reflectivity (factor) (RMR) in the eyewall is determined by radar and is approximately equal to the radius of maximum winds. It can be taken as a measure of the swath of maximum damage where the eyewall passes. It is also used in computing probable maximum storm surge height and position (Raghavan 1997). Storm surge indicated is the peak height. [Source: Raghavan (1991) and IMD RSMC annual reports.] Cyclone landfall Max T MSSW MSLP Strength Eye diameter RMR Storm date (category) no. (m s ') (hPa) (m s ') (km) (km) surge (rr 19 Nov 1977 (SCSCHW) 7 64 941ab 919C 26 60 5.0 12 May 1979 (SCSCHW) 6 57 936a 21 20 3.5 14 Nov 1984 (SCSCHW) 6 49 969a 9 20 20 1.0 8 Nov 1989 (SCSCHW) 6.5 65 930a 942d 8 10-20 20 3.5 9 May 1990 (SCSCHW) 6.5 69 9l2e 920f 21 20 20 3.5 6 Nov 1996 (SCSCHW) 4.5 40 974g 17 8-20 2-3 15 Nov 1998 (VSCS) 4.5 (CI no.) 40 982g 20 aRaghavan( 1991); Observation by ship Jagatswamini; 'estimated by Ghosh (1981); dGupta et al.
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