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CYCLO:\E GRO,,"TH RATES O\-ER the :\ORTH PACIFIC A;\Id WESTER:\ :\ORTH .-\TLA:\TIC OCE.-\0:S

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CYCLO:\E GRO,, • CYCLO:\E GRO,,"TH RATES O\-ER THE :\ORTH PACIFIC A;\iD WESTER:\ :\ORTH .-\TLA:\TIC OCE.-\0:S by Richard E. Daniclson Department of Atmosphcric and Occanic Sciences A TUESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR TUE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE AT McGILL UNIVERSITY MONTREAL,QUEBEC JULY, 1996 @ Copyright by Richard E. Danie1son, 1996 • Nallonal L,brary Blbllotheque nallonale .",. of Canada Ou Canada AcqulSlllons and DirectIon des acquisitions et Blbllographlc ServIces Branch des services bibliographiques 39~ "'''~llontjlon $lrfl'f:l 395, rue 1,""el1lnglon or.~I"';1 Ont.trlo Or.a....a (Ü'1:ano) 1': l" ON·: Kl ..... ONO: o.,,·.... ,'Ilo~, ..'~t' The author has granted an L'auteur a accordé une licence irrevocable non-exclusive licence irrévocable et non exclusive allowing the National Library of permettant à la Bibliothèque Canada to reproduce, loan, nationale du Canada de distribute or sell copies of reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou his/her thesis by any mear.s and vendre des copies de sa thèse in any form or format, making de quelque manière et sous this thesis available to interested quelque forme que ce soit pour persons. mettre des exemplaires de cette thèse à la disposition des personnes intéressées. The author retains ownership of L'auteur conserve la propriétédu the copyright in his/her thesis. droit d'auteur qui protège sa Neither the thesis nor substantial thèse. Ni la thèse ni des extraits extracts from it may be printed or substantiels de celle-ci ne otherwise reproduced without doivent être imprimés ou his/her permission. autrement reproduits sans son autorisation. ISBN 0-612-19803-0 Canada • Abstract By dcfining cyclonl~ gro\\"th as a Jogarithll1ic chanp.:l' in ah:.;nitlll' \'orlicity ur tllt' surface center. Wc.:' iu\"estigatc gro\\'th rates of a 1\'n Yl'ar sanlpi(' ,.li' cold·~·a·a:-;tlll t l 0("· tober through :31 :\Iarch) "xtratrop;cal cyelon"" ;'1 thc' :"".. Ih P"cilie 0 ...·"" h""i". Strong growth is frequent in coastal regions near .Japan a.,d i" Ihe E'L'I Chin" S,,,,. In eontrast to the eonventional deepening rate intensification paranlC'lc·r. frecl'wncy distributions of maximum 24-h growth are found to be more Gan:<s;an in characler. To ill\'estigate possIble physieal proeesses acting to enhanCl' growth. composite' sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are eomputed for groups of cyclones which deepen ma.ximally in the vieinity of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio CUrr<~nts. Corn parison between groups of similar dœpening revcals stronger growth is gencrally as· sociated \\;th warm SST anomalies and with wcakcr uppcr-Ievel support for intensi· fication. Composite latent and sensible heat flux fields eomputcd from observations support this finding. • • Résumé En d("finissant la croissance d'un cyclone par un cl1augclllcnt logarithnliquc du tourhillon ahsolu ~l la surface au centre du systènlc. nous étudions les taux de la croissance "'un échantillon de dix hivers (1" Octobre au :ll mr :\lars) de cyclones extratropicaies au-dessus du Pacifique I\ord. Des taux de la croissance importants existent sonvent dans les régions côtières près du Japon et dans la mer de Chine Orientale. En contraste a"ec le paramètre habituel de taux de creusement. les distrj- butions des fréquences des ma."l:ima de taux de la croissance sur 2-1 heures sont plutôt de nature Gaussienne. Pour étudier les processus physiques possibles qui peU\'ent améliorer la croissance, des moyennes d'anomalies de la température à la surface de la mer sont calculées pour des groupes de cyclones avec creusement ma."l:imales dans les régions des courants du Gulf Stream et du Kuroshio. Des comparaisons entre des groupes de creusements similaires démontrent que la croissance est généralement plus forte lorsque les anoma­ lies de la température à la surface de la mer sont positives et le support du niveau supérieur est plus faible. Cette conclusion est démontrée par des calculs de moyennes des champs des flux de chaleurs latente et sensible. • Il • Acknowledgements 1 wotlld lik(, to t"xpn"~~ IllY ~ratittld( .. 11,) Pn)fl"~:-'I..lr .J\lhn (;yakulli for prt)\"idill~;1 strong foctts and dirt'ction in whic.:h ft.) prnn... ·d in t hi:-- st ndy. alld f'lf tlltlch :'l1pport during both the researdl and wrilin:;; sta~t·~. Tllt'n' was always rl'ic\O;lIlt tht·\.lry Il) irnp!enll'nt. ideas to pur'l"'. a,l\'iCl' on where 10 look f,'r a crucial pap,·r. and data and a nlCélns to nlanipulatf' lhent wcre rcadily él\"ailabIe throughout. The assistance of :\lathilde Renaud who tracked the Atlantic cy<"iont's and Ste\'e Worley at "CAR in pro\'iding the COADS data for this stlldy is grah-fnl\y acknowledged. 1 would also like to thank col\eagucs in ollr departlllent who wt'rt' ill­ tegral to the completion of this work including Werner Wintels with wholll 1ell.ioyed a number of discussions of metcorological import. Marc Klasa for assisting with th,· French translation of the abstract and with the unpacking of Nl\IC grids. Marco Car­ rera for providing bail park heat flux information for a numerical simulation. and Dinh Hai Tran and computer systems tcchnician Alan Schwartz for prO\'iding exper­ tise of a technical nature. Finally, 1 lovingly recognize the advice and encouragement of my parents. which have been of continuai benefit throughout. • iii • Contents List of Tables vi List of Figures viii 1 Introduction 1 2 Data 7 3 Measures of Surface Cyclone Development 10 3.1 Thc cyclone growth rate parameter ............ 10 :3.2 Two cyclones of contrasting growth and deepening rates 13 3.3 Composite lower tropospberic growth and deepening cbaracteristics 23 3.4 Spatial climatologies of growtb and deepening 36 3.5 Growth and deepening rate distributions ... 44 4 Kuroshio and Gulf Stream Region Cyclone Intensification 54 4.1 Group cbaracteristics .............. 54 4.2 Composite sea surface temperature anomalies 65 4.3 Composite surface beat f1u.'Ces ......... ï4 5 Concluding Discussion 84 • IV • A Discussion of the Cyclone Data Sets 89 B Kolmogorov-Smirnov l\la'(imum Deviation Test 92 CA Modified Cressman Interpolation Scheme D Calculation of Surface Heat Fluxes 98 References 101 • v • List of Tables :l.l Cornparison of geostrophic relative "orticity and 2·1-h cyclone gro\\'th rate "alues using different SLP analyses for the cyclone of Fig. :3.2 (Icttcrs correspond to the figures used to ca\culate these '"alues). .. 21 :3.2 Comparison of gcostrophic relati"e \'orticity and 2-l-h cyclone gro\\'th rate "alues using different SLP analyses for the cyclone of Fig. :3.:3 (Ietters correspond to the figures used to calculate these values). .. 22 :3.:3 Results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the Gaussian character of North Pacifie Ocean CGR and APF distributions. The ma:'i:Ïmum cumulative distribution function (CDF, sec appendix B) differences are measured in terms of probability (ranging from 0 to 1), R denotes rejection of the null hypothesis and A denotes failure to reject. .. .. 52 4.1 Coastal Kuroshio Current moderate bomb individual and mean 24·h rates. .................................. .. 56 4.2 Coastal Kuroshio CUITent strong non-bomb indh;dual and mean 24-h rates. .................................. .. 5i 4.3 Offshore Kuroshio CUITent moderate bomb indh;dual and mean 24-h rates. .......................•.......... .. 58 4.4 Offshore Kuroshio Current strong non-bomb indi,,;dual and mean 24-h rates. .................................." 59 • ,,; • ·1.·1 (\)a~tal Gulf Strt'aI11 IlllHit'r~lft' h\.ll11h illdi\";t!lIal <lnd t1Wtlll ~.t-h r~\lt·~. III ·l.il Cùa~tal (;ulf Strl'anl ~trotlg 11\)t1-hlllllh int.li\'idual and Illt'<tn :'!·I·h t'~\lt'~. tl~ -Li Olr~hore Gulf Stream moderate homh indi,-idnal and m,'all ;!-I-h rak~_ li:; ·1.S Otr~hon' Gulr Strl'.ltll ~trùlIg th.H1-hotllh individu.li and nlt"\I! :!I-h faIt':". t;·l • vii • List of Figures :1.1 Idealized de'·l'iopment of a strongly and a \\"('akly gro\\"ing cyclone from the same initial pressure distribution. ................ .. 12 :1.2 N~IC manual (Icft column) and gridded (right column) SLP anal­ yses for (a.b) 0000 UTC and (c.d) 1200 UTC 28 November. and (d) 0000 UTC 29 November 19;5 (contour interval ·1 hPa). \Vind barbs from COADS obsen'ations (full feather indicates 5 m çl, half feather 2.5 m S-I and pennant 25 m S-I). Circled cross indicates loca­ tion of minimum pressure in the gridded SLP analyses corresponding to the manually analyzed cyd':'ne center. .............. .. 1'1 :3.3 NMC manual (left eolumn) and gridded (right eolumn) SLP analyses as in Fig. 3.2, but for (a,b) 1200 UTC 12 Mareh, (c,d) 0000 UTC and (e.f) 1200 UTC 13 March, and (g,h) 0000 UTC and (i,j) 1200 UTC 14 March 1983 (8-hPa contour inten<ù beIow 1000 hPa in (i) ).. .. 16 • viii • . ., \-t'\': t 1:- : :--:t.ltlt'\l ' indicatf" forcing for .l.....cent in t ht" Q-vl'ctor di\"t·r!:!.t'lIù· li,·ld~.. ... .. l ~1 :3.5 Central prt'Ssun." tracks fur (a) :!~J ~trongly dt"·lwniut!. \·ydtHlt":'\. alld (b):H ~trong growth ,yc!onl'" within :lQo" tl> ·Ill°:'\ and l:!lloE 1\1 l~lloE indicated by a bold <"Ïrc!e. .. ........ .. a.6 Evolution of rotated ,ompo~it,~ SLP anomaly (,ontour intl'n,.,1 :! hl'a) and statistical discernibility at th," .5'70 ,'rror le\,<,1 (shaded) for th,' :!!l strongly deepening cydoncs of Fig. a.5a. Individual fields ~ rotat,,<1 about the North Pole such that cydoncs at 1'0 (onset of ma."imum 24-h APF) are located along 1500E (bold line).
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