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USING GIS to UNDERSTAND HURRICANE WINDFIELDS in the GULF of MEXICO Jill F

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USING GIS to UNDERSTAND HURRICANE WINDFIELDS in the GULF of MEXICO Jill F USING GIS TO UNDERSTAND HURRICANE WINDFIELDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com Using GIS to 1900-1959 determine if Hurricanes there are East of 45W more hurricanes. 1960-2006 Hurricanes East of 45W Using GIS to 1900-1959 determine if Hurricanes there are East of 45W more hurricanes. Conclusion: Since satellite use started after 1960, more 1960-2006 hurricanes Hurricanes must be the East of 45W result of satellites and not global warming. Hurricane Rita 2005 66 platforms destroyed 32 more suffering extensive damage 13 MODUs broke their moorings and were set adrift 1 jack-up sunk 7 jack-ups and 2 semi-subs had extensive damage Hurricane Katrina 2005 47 platforms destroyed 20 more suffering extensive damage 6 rigs broken from moorings and set adrift 3 platform rigs destroyed 1 jack-up capsized 2 jack-ups and 5 semi-subs had extensive damage Hurricane Ivan 2004 7 platforms destroyed 6 more suffering extensive damage 5 drilling rigs with major damage Hurricane Lili 2002 6 platforms destroyed 31 platforms seriously damaged 4 MODUs broken from their moorings and set adrift 2 jack-ups capsized GFS Adriatic VII Jack-up Before and after Hurricane Rita 2005 Shell Mars Platform Before and after Hurricane Katrina 2005 BP Eugene Island 322 Platform A Before and after Hurricane Lili 2002 MedusaMedusa Sparafter -Hurricane Mississippi Ivan Canyon 2004 582 after Hurricane Ivan 2004 GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES – Orange are Category 3 hurricanes, Red are Category 4 hurricanes and Purple are Category 5 hurricanes GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES CAT 5 GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES CAT 4 & 5 GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES CAT 3, 4 & 5 Structure of a hurricane - The strongest winds will be on the right side of the hurricane just outside the eye wall. SPIRAL BAND EYE WALL Highest sustained winds EYE WRC meteorologists have a hurricane windfield model they use to forecast and hindcast the maximum sustained winds in a hurricane. These windfields are then mapped using ESRI ArcGIS. For example, the following graph is the windfield of Hurricane Katrina 2005 when it was a Category 5 hurricane on Hurricane Alicia 1983 track into the Houston area. Highest Winds on the right of the track Katrina as a Cat 5 on Hurricane Alicia’s track WRC meteorologists then used ArcGIS to study some significant Gulf of Mexico hurricanes that influenced the oil lease areas. ArcGIS layering capabilities allow WRC meteorologists to add the well data to the oil leases. Purple - Cat 5 Red - Cat 4 Orange - Cat 3 A layer with the tracks of Hurricanes Hilda-1964, Betsy-1965, Camille-1969, Carmen-1974, Lili-2002, Ivan-2004, Katrina-2005, & Rita-2005 was added. The hurricane windfield layers were then added. Hurricanes come in all sizes. Compare Hurricane Katrina 2005 windfield with Hurricane Camille 1969. Windfield of Hurricane Camille - 1969 Windfield of Hurricane Katrina - 2005 Size of the windfield can change during the storm. Hurricane Rita 2005 when maximum winds were over the Green Canyon Lease. Zooming in on wells and maximum sustained winds Zooming in on wells and maximum sustained winds Comparison between the windfields of Hurricane Carla 1961 and Hurricane Andrew 1992. Yellow indicates winds of 64 knots or higher. Notice how much smaller the windfield for Andrew was. Windfield for Hurricane Carmen 1974 Hurricane Katrina 2005 radar layered with wells Close up of Hurricane Katrina radar and oil blocks Hurricane Katrina 2005 radar at landfall with wells Forecast of windfields for Rita on Sep 22 with actual track Using GIS to show typhoon threat versus vessel route Using GIS to demonstrate risk from cyclone in Bay of Bengal Windfield forecast of along the forecast track versus windfield for the worst track for the operation site. Cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 135 knots. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Coast with the highest risk of landfall is Georgia to North Carolina with 90% Louisiana to Alabama has 60% chance of a landfall WRC GRAY NOAA/NWS Number of Named Storms: 11 13 Number of Storm Days: 83 60 Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 5 7 Number of Hurricane Days: 24 30 US Landfalls: 4 Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50% 3 Weather Research Center Houston, Texas www.wxresearch.com [email protected] Hurricanes from 1950 to 2003 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 20 Hurricanes from 1950 to 2003 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 20 Hurricanes from 1900 to 1949 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 17 Hurricanes from 1950 to 2003 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 20 Hurricanes from 1900 to 1949 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 17 Hurricanes from 1851 to 1899 with maximum sustained winds 100 knots or greater - 16 Tropical Cyclones 1851-1899 1851 to 1899 16 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1851 to 1899 16 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 2 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1852 and 1856 1851 to 1899 16 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 2 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1852 and 1856 There were 14 years with intense hurricanes in these 50 years giving a probability of experiencing an intense hurricane over the GOM oil leases of 28% in any year. Tropical Cyclones 1900-1949 1950 to 2003 20 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1950 to 2003 20 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1985 1950 to 2003 20 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1985 There were 19 years with intense hurricanes in these 54 years giving a probability of experiencing an intense hurricane over the GOM oil leases of 35% in any year. Tropical Cyclones 1950-2003 1900 to 1949 17 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1900 to 1949 17 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 3 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1909, 1915 and 1916 1900 to 1949 17 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 3 year when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1909, 1915 and 1916 There were 14 years with intense hurricanes in these 50 years giving a probability of experiencing an intense hurricane over the GOM oil leases of 28% in any year. 1900 to 2003 37 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 1900 to 2003 37 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 5 Years when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1909, 1915 , 1916, 1975 and 1985 1900 to 2003 37 Intense hurricanes [maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater] over the GOM Oil leases [North of 25W and West of 85W] 5 Years when there were 2 or more intense hurricanes - 1909, 1915 , 1916, 1975 and 1985 There were 32 years with intense hurricanes in these 104 years giving a probability of experiencing an intense hurricane over the GOM oil leases of 31% in any year. NOTABLE CATEGORY 5 GOM LEASE HURRICANES 165 kts Hurricane Camille 1969 155 kts Hurricane Allen 1980 150 kts Hurricane Carla 1961 140 kts Hurricane Beulah 1967 140 kts Hurricane Ethel 1960 135 kts Hurricane Betsy 1965 Comparing the last three 50 year periods: 1851 to 1899, 1900 to 1949 and 1950 to 2003 Assuming that the maximum sustained 1 minute winds in hurricanes prior to 1950 were underestimated, 15 knots was added to the 1 minute winds. The number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones over the Gulf of Mexico Oil Lease is: 1851-1899 1900-1949 1950-2003 +15 kts +10 kts +15 kts +10 kts CAT 5 3 3 5 2 5 CAT 4 13 6 12 12 8 CAT 3 17 19 10 7 7 TOTAL 33 28 27 21 20 1851 1861 1871 6 0 4 1881 1891 1901 3 3 3 1911 1921 1931 7 1 2 Number of Intense Hurricanes by Decade over the Gulf of Mexico 1941 1951 1961 5 3 6 1981 1971 1991 4 3 3 2001 6 GOM OIL LEASE INTENSE HURRICANES BY DECADE AND 30 YEAR CYCLES CYCLE 1 CYCLE 2 CYCLE 3 1851-1860 6 1861-1870 0 1871-1880 4 1881-1890 3 1891-1900 3 1901-1910 3 1911-1920 7 1921-1930 1 1931-1940 2 1941-1950 5 1951-1960 3 1961-1970 6 1971-1980 4 1981-1990 3 1991-2000 3 2001-2010 6 USING 30 YEAR AVERAGES THE FORECAST OF INTENSE GOM HURRICANES 2001-2011 5 2011-2020 2 2021-2030 3.6 ACTIVE INACTIVE ACTIVE Weather Research Center Houston, Texas www.wxresearch.com [email protected].
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