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Analýza Teroristických Útoků Provedených Ve 21. Století Na Území EU

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Analýza Teroristických Útoků Provedených Ve 21. Století Na Území EU AMBIS vysoká škola, a.s. Katedra bezpečnosti a práva Analýza teroristických útoků provedených ve 21. století na území EU Bakalářská práce Autor: Roman Čada Bezpečnostní management v regionech, Národní bezpečnost Vedoucí práce: doc. Ing. Karel Kubečka, Ph.D. Brno Rok 2021 Prohlášení Prohlašuji, že jsem bakalářskou práci zpracoval samostatně a v seznamu uvedl veškerou použitou literaturu. Svým podpisem stvrzuji, že jsem seznámen se skutečností, že práce bude zpřístupněna třetím osobám prostřednictvím informačního systému AMBIS vysoké školy, a.s. V Brně, dne 11. dubna 2021 Roman Čada vlastnoruční podpis Poděkování Rád bych touto cestou poděkoval panu doc. Ing. Karlu Kubečkovi, Ph.D., vedoucímu mé bakalářské práce za jeho pomoc, trpělivost, a odborné rady, které mi byly velkou pomocí při psaní této práce. Anotace Bakalářská práce „Analýza teroristických útoků provedených ve 21. století na území EU“ se zaměřuje na bezpečnostní analýzu, která je provedena metodou sekundární analýzy dat z databáze teroristických útoků Global Terrorism Database. U těchto dat je provedeno doplnění potřebných klíčů a dále rozbor a to především formou tabulek a grafů. Součástí práce je vytvoření analytického nástroje – matice, jejímž dosazením a vypočtením se získá hodnota rizika pro konkrétní kombinaci proměnných. Výsledkem analýzy je možnost vytvořit velké množství různých kombinací proměnných a tím předvídat komu, kde a kdy hrozí jak velké nebezpečí. Klíčová slova Teroristický útok; nestátní násilný aktér; nebezpečí; bezpečnostní analýza; Evropská unie. Annotation Bachelor thesis „Analysis of terrorist attacks commited in the EU in the 21st century“ is focused at safety analysis, wich is done by secundary analysis methode from database of terrorist attacks Global Terrorist Database. These data are completed by necessary keys. They are further analysed primarily in the form of charts and graphs. This work includes making of analytic tool – matrix, wich suplemented and calculated results in value of a risk for specific combination of variables. The result of analysis is possibility of creation of many combinations of variavles wich results in prediction of who, where, when, how much is the risk.. Key words Terroristic attack; Violent Non-State Actor; risk; security analysis; European Union. Obsah Úvod ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1 Teoretická část práce ........................................................................................................ 11 1.1 Vymezení základních pojmů ..................................................................................... 11 1.1.1 Časový a prostorový rámec ................................................................................ 11 1.1.2 Civilista ............................................................................................................... 14 1.1.3 Cíle teroristických útoků .................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Zbraně ................................................................................................................. 18 1.2 Aktéři mezinárodních vztahů ..................................................................................... 19 1.2.1 Státní aktéři ......................................................................................................... 19 1.2.2 Nestátní aktéři ..................................................................................................... 20 1.2.3 Násilní nestátní aktéři ......................................................................................... 20 1.2.4 Teritoriálně ukotvení násilní nestátní aktéři ....................................................... 21 1.3 Typologie a popis jednotlivých VNSA ...................................................................... 22 1.3.1 Teroristi .............................................................................................................. 23 1.3.2 Povstalci ............................................................................................................. 24 1.3.3 Organizovaný zločin a mafie .............................................................................. 24 1.3.4 Ostatní VNSA ..................................................................................................... 25 1.3.5 Hybridní VNSA .................................................................................................. 26 1.4 Terorismus ................................................................................................................. 26 1.4.1 Rozdělení terorismu Europolem ......................................................................... 28 1.5 Databáze teroristických útoků GTD .......................................................................... 29 2 Praktická část práce .......................................................................................................... 31 2.1 Doplnění databáze GTD ............................................................................................ 31 2.1.1 Rozdělení měst ................................................................................................... 31 2.1.2 Rozdělení cílů teroristických útoků .................................................................... 32 2.1.3 Typologie organizací a útoků ............................................................................. 32 2.2 Typologie nejznámějších útoků ................................................................................. 33 2.2.1 Palba v koncertní síni Bataclan .......................................................................... 33 6 2.2.2 Náklaďák na kolonádě v Nice ............................................................................ 34 2.2.3 Série bombových útoků na vlaky v Madridu...................................................... 35 2.2.4 Osamělý vlk Breivik ........................................................................................... 36 2.2.5 Sebevražední atentátníci v londýnském metru ................................................... 37 2.2.6 Útok na redakci Charlie Hebdo .......................................................................... 38 2.2.7 Bomby na letišti v Bruselu ................................................................................. 39 2.2.8 Dodávka v davu chodců v Barceloně ................................................................. 40 2.2.9 Osamělý vlk David Ali Sonboly ......................................................................... 41 2.3 Rozbor dat pro bezpečnostní analýzu ........................................................................ 42 2.3.1 Útoky .................................................................................................................. 42 2.3.2 Útoky podle typologie ........................................................................................ 43 2.3.3 Povstalecké útoky podle typu povstalecké organizace ....................................... 44 2.3.4 Povstalecké útoky podle států ............................................................................ 45 2.3.5 Teroristické útoky podle typu teroristické organizace ....................................... 46 2.3.6 Teroristické útoky podle států ............................................................................ 47 2.3.7 Oběti útoků ......................................................................................................... 48 2.3.8 Oběti teroristických útoků .................................................................................. 50 2.3.9 Oběti nábožensky motivovaných teroristických útoků ...................................... 51 2.3.10 Vliv muslimské menšiny .................................................................................... 53 2.3.11 Vliv žadatelů o azyl ............................................................................................ 54 2.3.12 Útoky podle cíle ................................................................................................. 56 2.3.13 Útoky podle tvrdosti cíle .................................................................................... 57 2.3.14 Útoky podle zbraně ............................................................................................. 58 2.3.15 Útoky podle dne v týdnu .................................................................................... 60 2.3.16 Útoky podle měsíců ............................................................................................ 61 2.3.17 Útoky podle velikosti měst ................................................................................. 62 2.4 Bezpečnostní analýza ................................................................................................. 63 2.4.1 Popis analytických metod ................................................................................... 63 7 2.4.2 Příprava analýzy ................................................................................................. 67 Faktory místní ..................................................................................................................... 68 Faktory časové .................................................................................................................... 70 Faktory cíle ......................................................................................................................... 72 2.4.3 Analýza ..............................................................................................................
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