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Vzor Závěrečné Práce Masarykova univerzita Ekonomicko-správní fakulta Studijní obor: Hospodářská politika TERORISMUS A MIGRACE Terrorism and migration Diplomová práce Vedoucí diplomové práce: Autor: Ing. Štěpán Mikula, Ph.D. Tomáš Sehoř Brno, 2018 2 3 4 Jméno a příjmení autora: Tomáš Sehoř Název diplomové práce: Terorismus a migrace Název práce v angličtině: Terrorism and migration Katedra: ekonomie Vedoucí diplomové práce: Ing. Štěpán Mikula, Ph.D. Rok obhajoby: 2018 Anotace Předmětem diplomové práce „Terorismus a migrace“ je ověřit, zda existuje vazba mezi teroristickými útoky a postojem domácí populace a také zjistit, zda teroristické útoky ovlivňují přítoky imigrantů a uprchlíků Annotation The goal of the submitted thesis: “Terrorism and migration” is to verify link between terrorist attacks and attitudes of natives and to investigate whether terrorist attacks affect immigrant and refugee flows Klíčová slova Evropská unie, migrace, terorismus, migrační toky, postoje Keywords European Union, migration, terrorism, migration flows, attitude 5 6 Prohlášení Prohlašuji, že jsem diplomovou práci Terorismus a migrace vypracovala samostatně pod vedením doc. Ing. Štěpána Mikuly, Ph.D. a uvedla v ní všechny použité literární a jiné odborné zdroje v souladu s právními předpisy, vnitřními předpisy Masarykovy univerzity a vnitřními akty řízení Masarykovy univerzity a Ekonomicko-správní fakulty MU. V Brně dne 5. ledna 2018 vlastnoruční podpis autora 7 8 Poděkování Na tomto místě bych ráda poděkovala Ing. Štěpánovi Mikulovi, Ph.D. za cenné připomínky, odborné rady a trpělivost, kterými přispěl k vypracování této diplomové práce. Dále děkuji Metacentru za poskytnutí výpočetní kapacity. 9 10 OBSAH ÚVOD ....................................................................................................................................... 13 1 TEORIE VYSVĚTLUJÍCÍ MIGRACI .......................................................................... 15 1.1 NEOKLASICKÁ EKONOMIE: MAKROEKONOMICKÝ POHLED ............................................ 15 1.2 NEOKLASICKÉ EKONOMIE: MIKROEKONOMIE ............................................................... 16 1.3 NOVÁ EKONOMIE .......................................................................................................... 17 1.4 TEORIE DUÁLNÍHO TRHU PRÁCE ................................................................................... 19 1.5 TEORIE SVĚTOVÉHO SYSTÉMU ...................................................................................... 20 1.6 TEORIE SÍTĚ .................................................................................................................. 21 2 LITERATURA ................................................................................................................. 23 2.1 CÉDRIC GORINAS A MARIOLA PYTLÍKOVÁ .................................................................. 23 2.1.1 Data a model ......................................................................................................... 23 2.1.2 Výsledky ................................................................................................................ 25 2.1.3 Robustnost ............................................................................................................. 25 2.2 TERORISMUS A MIGRACE .............................................................................................. 26 2.2.1 Terorismus jako příčina migrace .......................................................................... 26 2.2.2 Xenofobie a proti imigrantské nálady v hostitelské zemi ...................................... 27 2.2.3 Migranti jako teroristé .......................................................................................... 27 2.2.4 Závěry ................................................................................................................... 28 3 DATA ................................................................................................................................ 31 3.1 MIGRACE ...................................................................................................................... 31 3.2 TERORISMUS ................................................................................................................. 35 11 3.3 VEŘEJNÉ MÍNĚNÍ .......................................................................................................... 37 4 MODEL A VÝSLEDKY ................................................................................................. 39 4.1 LOGIKA ROVNICE ......................................................................................................... 39 4.2 ZÁKLADNÍ MODEL ........................................................................................................ 40 4.3 MODEL S MODIFIKACÍ .................................................................................................. 42 4.4 KORELACE.................................................................................................................... 42 4.5 SHRNUTÍ ....................................................................................................................... 43 ZÁVĚR .................................................................................................................................... 55 SEZNAM POUŽITÝCH ZDROJŮ....................................................................................... 57 SEZNAM TABULEK ............................................................................................................. 60 SEZNAM GRAFŮ .................................................................................................................. 60 SEZNAM PŘÍLOH ................................................................................................................ 61 12 ÚVOD Poslední tři roky se Evropa nachází v migrační krizi. A k tomu došlo k nárůstu teroristických útoků, rok 2015 byl v tomto ohledu horší než předchozích deset. Není překvapivé, že si lidé a politici dávají do souvislosti terorismus a migraci. Vyvstává otázka: jak ovlivňuje terorismus migraci a existuje vztah mezi postojem domácího obyvatelstva a teroristickými akty? Moje práce si proto klade za cíl ověřit, zda existuje vazba mezi teroristickými útoky a postojem domácí populace a také zjistit, zda teroristické útoky ovlivňují přítoky imigrantů a uprchlíků. Podle zvolených kritérií bylo vybráno 14 států Evropské Unie (Rakousko, Belgie, Finsko, Francie, Německo, Řecko, Maďarsko, Itálie, Nizozemsko, Polsko, Španělsko, Švédsko a Velká Británie) v rozmezí let 2004 až 2015 (včetně). Po úvaze je práce členěna do čtyř kapitol. První kapitola nazvaná Teorie vysvětlující migraci je teoretické ukotvení celé práce. Také má čtenáři nabídnout koherentní vhled do různorodých teorií mezinárodní migrace. Druhá kapitola – Literatura - poskytuje dva články. První slouží jako předloha pro sestrojení modelu. Druhý se věnuje spojení migrace a terorismu šířeji, z pohledu experta na terorismus. Třetí a čtvrtá kapitola je praktická část, Data představí a vyšetří proměnné. Model a výsledky představí dva typy gravitačních modelů, ve kterých se zanalyzují efekty teroristických projevů v několika podobách na migrační toky. Také se korelací pokusím ustanovit vztah mezi postojem obyvatelstva k migrantům a útoky teroristů. Závěr bude patřit prezentaci výsledků 13 14 1 TEORIE VYSVĚTLUJÍCÍ MIGRACI Pro tuto práci je podstatné znát teorii vysvětlující mezinárodní migraci. Teoretické modely a úvahy zajištují teoretické ukotvení. Ale také vysvětlují příčiny a vývoj mezinárodní migrace. Následující teoretické vhledy poskytují nezbytný úvod do problematiky migrace. 1.1 Neoklasická ekonomie: makroekonomický pohled Nejznámější teorie vysvětlující mezinárodní migraci (Todaro, 1980) byla původně pro vysvětlení pracovní migraci v procesu ekonomického rozvoje. Podle této teorie je migrace vysvětlena poptávkou a nabídkou pracovního trhu v kontextu geografických rozdílů. Země s poměrem s velkým poměrem práce na kapitálu jako produkčního faktoru mají rovnovážnou mzdu nízkou, země s poměrem s nízkým poměrem práce na kapitálu jako produkčního faktoru mají rovnovážnou mzdu vysokou. V důsledku toho se pracovníci přesunují ze zemí s nízkou mzdou do zemí s vysokou mzdou. S takovým pohybem migrantů se mzdy zvyšují v zemích s nízkou mzdou a snižují v zemích s vysokou mzdou. Nakonec rozdíl mezi zeměmi by měl odpovídat nákladům k migraci. Pracovníci proudí ze zemí, kde je pracovníků přemíra do zemí, kde jsou pracovníci potřeba. Kapitál se přesouvá do kapitálově málo rozvinutých trhů, kde dosahuje vysokých výnosů. Kvalifikovaní pracovníci míří tím stejným směrem, protože dosahují také vysokých výnosů z lidského kapitálu. Je důležité rozlišovat proud kvalifikovaných a nekvalifikovaných pracovních migrantů. Tento model je tak populární, že zasáhl do debaty o imigračních pravidlech. Jedná se o několik tvrzení a návrhů: Migrace pracovníků je způsobena rozdíly v mzdových mírách mezi státy 15 Nebudou-li mzdové rozdíly, nebude pohyb pracovníků Vysoce kvalifikovaní reagují na výnosy z lidského kapitálu. Ty mohou být odlišné od celkové mzdy. Kvalifikovaní mohou jít opačným směrem než ostatní pracovníci. Pracovní trhy jsou hlavním determinantem pracovní migrace, jiné trhy nemají moc vlivu Způsob vlády kontrolovat migrační toky je regulovat jejich pracovní trh a pokusit se ovlivnit relevantní pracovní trh v jiné zemi 1.2 Neoklasické ekonomie: mikroekonomie Mikroekonomické řešení je na bázi individuální volby a je v souladu s předešlým modelem (Todaro, 1980). Jedinec se
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