ABSTRACT Title of Document: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEGITIMACY, TERRORIST ATTACKS AND POLICE Jennifer Catherine Gibbs Doctor of Philosophy, 2011 Directed By: Professor Laura Dugan Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice Scholars often suggest that terrorism – “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion or intimidation” (LaFree & Dugan, 2007, 184) – is a battle of legitimacy. As the most ubiquitous representatives of the government’s coercive force, the police should be most susceptible to terrorism stemming from perceptions of illegitimacy. Police are attractive symbolic and strategic targets, and they were victimized in over 12% of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1970. However, empirical research assessing the influence of legitimacy on terrorist attacks, generally, and scholarly attention to terrorist attacks on police are scant. The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the influence of state and police legitimacy and alternative explanations on the proportion of all and only fatal terrorist attacks on police in 82 countries between 1999 and 2008. Data were drawn from several sources, including the Global Terrorism Database and the World Values Survey. Surprisingly, results of Tobit analyses indicate that police legitimacy, measured by the percentage of the population who have at least some confidence in police, is not significantly related to the proportion of all terrorist attacks on police or the proportion of fatal terrorist attacks on police. State legitimacy was measured by four indicators; only the percentage of the population who would never protest reached significance, lending limited support for this hypothesis. Greater societal schism, the presence of a foreign military and greater economic inequality were consistently significant predictors of higher proportions of terrorist attacks on police. Some measures of violence within a country also were influential, but they were not consistent across models or with expectations. The results of the Tobit analyses were confirmed with Negative Binomial Regression Models using the number of all and only fatal terrorist attacks targeting police as the outcome. While these results suggest alternative explanations for terrorist attacks targeting police, discounting legitimacy as an explanation for such attacks or terrorism, generally, is premature. Policy implications and avenues for future research are discussed. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEGITIMACY, TERRORIST ATTACKS AND POLICE By Jennifer Catherine Gibbs Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2011 Advisory Committee: Professor Laura Dugan, Chair Professor Arie Kruglanski Professor Gary LaFree Professor Raymond Paternoster Professor Lawrence Sherman © Copyright by Jennifer Catherine Gibbs 2011 Acknowledgements I am so very fortunate to be surrounded by kind, brilliant people. First, my committee has been amazing. As my advisor, Laura Dugan pushed me well beyond my comfort zone and I learned a great deal as a result. During Laura’s sabbatical early on in my candidacy, Gary LaFree stepped in as my “pinch hitter” chair, providing valuable direction. Ray Paternoster was always available to answer the silliest of questions and his support kept my mental health in check; I had many “a ha” moments after our conversations. Larry Sherman suggested the alternative explanations addressed in Chapter 4 – two of which turned out to be consistent predictors of the topic at hand. Michele Gelfand critically read my proposal, providing suggestions that improved my research. Arie Kruglanski graciously donated part of his summer “break” to join my committee. Because of their insight and guidance, this dissertation became far more exciting than I had imagined. While not on my committee and, in fact, I never took a formal class with him, Martin Schwartz of Ohio University (ret.) has been an amazing mentor and friend. The potential he sees in me is rivaled only by my mother, and both inspire me to persevere. Several others helped me through this project. During the early stages of data compilation, Steve Baxter taught me more about Excel than I wanted to know – a new skill for which I am grateful. Melissa Chinnock made time in her very busy schedule to proofread draft chapters. I also am indebted to the students enrolled in my spring 2011 Criminological Aspects of Terrorism course, who served as a sounding board for various ideas when I suffered from tunnel vision during this research. ii Additionally, my family and friends also were understanding about my time commitments to this dissertation. As I was packing my house to move on to the next chapter of my life, I had the opportunity to review some of my earlier work; I realize how influential my earlier teachers were on my education. When I entered college, I intended to major in psychology and become a high school guidance counselor – until I took an Introduction to Criminology course taught by Alan Bruce (now at Quinnipiac University). I ended up with a minor in criminology so that I could take more classes with this passionate professor, who I now consider a friend. The mentorship of Tim Ireland, Harry Dammer (now at University of Scranton) and Talia Harmon at Niagara University was incomparable. Talia, especially, spent many late nights helping me fine-tune my master’s thesis and encourage me to continue graduate school. Without these scholars behind me, I would not have made it this far. Most important, my husband, Adam Foltz, has my undying appreciation. He was always available for emotional support whenever I hit roadblocks with my research. Never complaining when our social life halted so I could focus nights and weekends on finishing this dissertation, Adam stepped in to proofread chapters and talk through research issues. He now knows the differences between semiparametric censored regression models and can have a casual conversation about when negative binomial regression is appropriate compared to Poisson. I owe much of my success to him. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................ viii List of Appendices ....................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Importance of Studying Terrorist Attacks on Police ................................................ 3 Explaining Terrorist Attacks on Police ..................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Legitimacy................................................................................................... 8 What is Legitimacy? ................................................................................................. 9 Causes and Consequences of Legitimacy ............................................................... 13 Procedural justice and defiance ......................................................................... 13 Desirable outcomes of legitimacy ....................................................................... 15 Summary ............................................................................................................. 20 Heroes or Villains? Connection between Legitimacy and Terrorism .................... 21 Legitimacy and terrorist attacks on police ......................................................... 23 Summary ............................................................................................................. 28 Chapter 3: Applicability of Legitimacy to the Problem of Terrorist Attacks against Police........................................................................................................................... 31 Looking at Terrorist Attacks on Police ................................................................... 34 Countries high in terrorist attacks on police: Iraq and India ............................ 36 A different story through proportions ................................................................. 42 Terrorist Attacks on Police in “Heavily-Hit” Countries ......................................... 44 Macedonia ........................................................................................................... 44 Georgia ............................................................................................................... 47 Russia .................................................................................................................. 49 Afghanistan ......................................................................................................... 52 Algeria ................................................................................................................. 55 Contrasting the “Top Five” with the “Bottom Ten” ............................................... 57 Summary