Afrobarometer Round 5 Uganda Survey Results

3 of 4 Public Release events 17th April, 2012, Kampala, Uganda

 A comparative series of national public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy and market reform, leadership, identity and other issues  Three key objectives: 1) Produce scientifically reliable data on public opinion in Africa 2) Strengthen institutional capacity for survey research in Africa 3) Disseminate and apply results (to decision makers, policy advocates, civic educators, journalists, researchers, donors, and ordinary Africans) Afrobarometer Coverage

 Round 1, 1999-2001, 12 countries • Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe • West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria • East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda  Round 2, 2002-2003, 16 countries; added • Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal  Round 3, 2005-2006, 18 countries; added • Benin, Madagascar  Round 4, 2008-2009, 20 countries; added • Burkina Faso, Liberia  Round 5, 2011 – 2012, 35 countries (To add 15 countries) Afrobarometer Methodology

. Respondents are all adult (18+) citizens of Uganda . Nationally representative sample distributed with probability proportionate to population size . Random selection of . Enumeration Areas . Households . Respondent within household . Every adult has an equal chance of selection . Face-to-Face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice . Rigorous double-blind translation process that ensures that equivalence of meaning is maintained across languages Afrobarometer in Uganda

 Five rounds of surveys completed

 Round 1 May-June 2000, n=2271;  Round 2 August-September 2002, n=2400;  Round 3 April-May 2005, n=2400;  Round 4 July-September 2008, n=2432;  Round 5 December 2011-February 2012, n=2400;  Two extra surveys in November-December 2010 (n=2000) and January 2011).

6 The Uganda R5 survey  Nationally representative sample size of 2400 adults, based on UBOS 2002 census data and related 2011 projections.

 Face-to-face interviews were conducted with Ugandan citizens of voting age between 2nd December/2011 and 27th February 2012.

 Survey reached 75% (84 of 112) of Uganda’s districts across all four administrative regions and reaching both urban and rural areas

 A total sample of 6200 interviews were conducted; 2400 being the official AB sample and 3800 being additional interviews conducted in USAID Uganda Mission Focus districts. However Results presented here are based only on the official AB sample

 The questionnaire was translated into 14 local languages. Luganda, Runyankole- Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Ngakirimojong, Lumasaba. Madi, Lugwere, Kupsabiny Lusoga and Japdhola.

 Local funding provided by USAID Uganda Mission and external central funding provided by the AB network group of donors

 All field work was conducted by Wilsken Agencies Ltd

 The overall margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percent.

Sample Breakdown

N = 2400 % [weighted] % [weighted] Gender Education Male 50 No formal education 12 Female 50 Primary 40 Secondary 33 Residence Locale 14.2 Post Secondary 15 Urban 85.5 Rural Age

18 - 24 21 Region 22 25 - 34 37 Central 25 35 - 44 21 West 22 45 - 54 12 North 25 55 - 64 5 East 6 65+ 4 Kampala Religion Christian 88 Muslim 12 Other 1

8 RESULTS

Is the country going in the wrong or right direction?

POPULAR PERCEPTIONS OF DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS KEY FINDINGS, I

 74% think the country is going the wrong direction (a complete reversal of the Jan 2011 pre-election perception of the same). Further, this perception cuts across political party lines, region, urban-rural divide, and gender.

 This perception may be fueled largely by evaluations of prevailing economic conditions and government handling of economic related services. Other factors, however, include:

 continuing weaknesses in some of Uganda’s democratic institutions and practices, and

 a growing gap between rising support for democracy and lower ratings of the extent to which Uganda is a full democracy and how satisfied Ugandans are with the way democracy works in their country.

KEY FINDINGS, II

 A majority of citizens rate previous elections as largely free and fair, but there are sharp partisan differences in how elections are evaluated. Trust in the Electoral Commission is low across partisan and demographic divides.

 Most Ugandans believe that political parties are necessary for providing choice in democracy, yet a majority of respondents also believe multi-party competition leads to violence and feel that the government frequently silences parties and their supporters.

 An overwhelming majority of Ugandans endorse the principles of checks and balances and separation of power, and a significant minority believe that the President violates these principles.

 Ugandans express high levels of support for human rights including freedoms of speech, press, and assembly and report relatively high levels of observance of these freedoms in practice in Uganda. Perceptions of the freedom of assembly seem to be worsening, however, possibly in response to the government’s crackdown on the walk to work demonstrations. 11

The Extent of Democracy in Uganda In your Opinion, how much of a democracy is Uganda today?

45 43 40 40 34 35

30 28

25 21

20 Percent mention Percent 15 12 9 10 5 5 1 2 2 2 0 Not a democracy A democracy, with A democracy, but A full democracy Do not understand Don't know major problems with minor problems question/democracy

AB Jan 2011 AB R5 (2012)

12 Satisfaction with Democracy

Overall how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Uganda? 50 45 45 39 40

35 30 30 25 25

20 19

Percent mention Percent 14 15 12

10 7 5 3 3 1 1 0 Uganda is not a Not at all Not very Fairly satisfied Very satisfied Don't Know democracy satisfied satisfied

AB Jan 2011 AB R5 (2012)

13 Public Ratings of Democracy in Uganda over time 100

90 87 80 80 Extent of Democracy, Percent 79 Saying Uganda is a Full 75 71 Democracy or a Democracy with 70 70 Minor Problems 67 60 60 61 54 62 Satisfaction with Democracy, 52 54 51 Percent Saying Very Satisfied or 50 51 48 48 Fairly Satisfied with how 48 Democracy Works 40 Support for Democracy, Percent 30 Saying Democracy Preferable to Any Other Form of Government 20

0 2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2012

14 Retrospective perception of the freeness and fairness of the last election On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national elections? 40 38

35 32 32 30

25 24

20 18 19 Percent 15 14 11 10 6 6 5 0 0 0 Not free and Free and fair, Free and fair, Completely free Do not Don't know fair with major but with minor and fair understand the problems problems question 2006 elections 2011 elections

15 Trust in the Electoral Commission over Time, Percent Saying they Trust the EC

80 76 70

60 62

50 52 47 40 41 42

30 20 20

0 2000 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012

16 Trust in Ruling and Opposition Parties over Time

80 70 70 65 60 60 55 53 50 46 48 Ruling Party 40 38 38 39 Opposition Parties 30 36 20 16 10 0 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012

17 Political Party Affiliation over Time (percent indicating affiliation to each party) 70

62 60 60

50 47 44 40 NRM 35 38 FDC 30 DP UPC 20 20 15 18 13 10 11 6 45 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 0 2 5 2000 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012

18 Attitudes towards separation of powers and checks and balances

In 2012, Ugandans indicated a strong preference for the principles of separation of powers and checks and balances:

• 89 percent disapprove of the army coming in to govern the country • 93 percent disapprove of the president dissolving Parliament and eliminating elections to govern the country himself • 79 percent believe that the President should report regularly to Parliament on how government is spending money • 85 percent believe that Members of Parliament should make laws rather than the President • 73 percent think that the President should obey the laws and courts rather than doing whatever he feels is right • 86 percent believe that there should be a two-term limit on the presidency

19 Public Attitudes on Fundamental Rights and Freedoms

• 85 percent believe that the media should constantly investigate and report on government mistakes and corruption

• 80 percent agree that the media should have the right to publish any views and ideas without government control

• 73 believe that they should be able to join any organization whether or not the government approves of it

• 76 percent disagree with the proposal to remove the right to bail for people involved in public protests or demonstrations

20 Public Perceptions of the Human Rights Situation in Uganda

• 83 percent feel free to say what they think

• 86 percent feel free to join a political organization of their choice

• 89 percent feel free to vote for a candidate of their choice

• 83 percent feel that the media is effective in reporting government mistakes and corruption; only 34 percent indicated that the media regularly abuses its freedom

21 Demand for responsiveness/accountability.

60 58

40 40 The government is like our employee. We are the bosses 31

Percent and should tell government what 30 to do. Percent 'Agree' or 'Agree very strongly' with statement 20

0 2005 2008 2012

 Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2  Statement 1: The government is like a parent. It should decide what is good for us  Statement 2: The government is our employee. We are the bosses and should tell government what to do.

22 More about the Afrobarometer

For More Information: www.afrobarometer.org