WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Africans’ perceptions about China: A sneak peek from 18 countries Edem Selormey (PhD) Director of Capacity Building Afrobarometer 3 September 2020 Background • Africa’s engagement with China has been growing over the past decades and has extended to a large array of sectors. • At the 2018 China-Africa Cooperation Forum, China announced it would be providing $60 billion in financial support to Africa. • Perceptions of African citizens on their governments’ engagement with China have been the subject of scrutiny and debate among analysts. • China’s growing role in Africa has drawn criticism. This has included claims that: ➢ China is in Africa only to access natural resources. ➢ It wants to buy up Africa’s land. ➢ It mainly employs Chinese rather than local labor. ➢ Chinese companies provide sub-standard services and products, under-sell and weaken local competitors. • China has also been severely criticized for its willingness to work with autocratic or less-than-transparent regimes. What is Afrobarometer? • Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on Africans’ experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. • Started in 12 African countries in 1999. Round 8 surveys in 2019/2020 are planned in at least 35 countries. • Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans. • All AB data and analysis are available free of charge to anyone who wants to use them. Methodology • Nationally representative sample of adult citizens o All respondents are randomly selected. o Sample is distributed across [regions/states/provinces] and urban/rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population. o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected. • Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s choice. • Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and over time. • Sample sizes of 1,200 or 2,400 adult citizens yield margins of sampling error of +/-2 to 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. “Afrobarometer … is the gold standard for independent opinion polls in Africa.” – Linda Thomas-Greenfield, former U.S. Asst. Sec. of State for African Affairs Where Afrobarometer works Recap of Afrobarometer 2014/2015 findings Latest Round 8 (2019/2020) findings: Sneak peek from 18 countries Best model for development | 18 countries | 2019/2020 United States 32% China 23% Former colonial power 11% South Africa 11% Other countries 6% None 2% We should follow our own country's model 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% Respondents were asked: In your opinion, which of the following countries, if any, would be the best model for the future development of our country, or is there some other country in Africa or elsewhere that should be our model? Best model for development: China vs. USA (%) | 18 countries | 2019/2020 60 55 China 46 U.S. 43 41 43 39 40 38 36 36 37 34 35 32 32 30 28 28 28 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 23 21 20 20 1919 20 18 17 15 14 13 11 10 0 Mali Kenya Tunisia Nigeria Ghana Gabon Malawi Angola Guinea Lesotho Ethiopia Uganda Namibia average Botswana 18-country Sierra Leone Sierra Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Cabo Côte d'Ivoire Respondents were asked: In your opinion, which of the following countries, if any, would be the best model for the future development of our country, or is there some other country in Africa or elsewhere that should be our model? China as best model for development | 16 countries | 2014-2020 2014/2015 2019/2020 Burkina Faso 20% 39% Mali 36% 38% Côte d'Ivoire 26% 28% Nigeria 25% 28% Botswana 24% 25% Guinea 22% 25% Gabon 29% 24% 16-country average 22% 23% Kenya 24% 23% Uganda 19% 23% Lesotho 18% 20% Malawi 17% 20% Tunisia 24% 19% Ghana 15% 18% Cabo Verde 21% 14% Sierra Leone 18% 13% Namibia 22% 11% Respondents were asked: In your opinion, which of the following countries, if any, would be the best model for the future development of our country, or is there some other country in Africa or elsewhere that should be our model? External influencers Rating external influencers | 18 countries | 2019/2020 China 59% 15% United States 58% 13% Regional superpower 49% 17% Former colonial power 46% 24% Russia 38% 16% Regional organization 55% 11% United Nations agencies 54% 11% African Union 50% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Somewhat positive/Very positive Somewhat negative/Very negative Respondents were asked: In general, do you think that the economic and political influence of each of the following organizations/countries on [your country] is mostly positive, mostly negative, or haven’t you heard enough to say? 85% Cabo Verde 79% 80% Guinea 76% Perceived positive 80% Mali 92% 80% influence of China Burkina Faso 78% 70% | 18 countries Côte d'Ivoire 77% 65% | 2014-2020 Kenya 76% 62% Nigeria 67% 18-country average 59% 57% Botswana 74% 2019/2020 Respondents were asked: Do you Ethiopia 57% think that the economic and 56% political influence of each of the Gabon 78% 2014/2015 following countries on [your 60% 16-country average 65% country] is mostly positive, mostly 55% negative, or haven’t you heard Lesotho 48% enough to say: China? 53% Uganda 58% (% who say “somewhat positive” Malawi 50% or “very positive”) 50% 48% Namibia 66% 47% Ghana 34% Angola 43% 41% Sierra Leone 55% 29% Tunisia 42% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 78% Cabo Verde 78% 72% Influence of China Gabon 87% 72% Kenya 75% | 18 countries 70% Mali 91% 64% | 2014-2020 Guinea 72% 61% Tunisia 74% 61% Namibia 76% 60% Burkina Faso 77% 56% 16-country average 71% Respondents were asked: How 2019/2020 55% much influence do you think 18-country average 54% China’s economic activities in Nigeria 67% 2014/2015 [our country] have on our 53% economy, or haven’t you Côte d'Ivoire 70% 52% heard enough to say? Botswana 76% (% who say “a lot” or “some”) 52% Ghana 61% Angola 51% 50% Lesotho 61% Ethiopia 45% 43% Uganda 57% 36% Malawi 59% 19% Sierra Leone 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Development assistance Heard of Chinese loans/development assistance | 18 countries | 2019/2020 100% 80% 74% 67% 58% 60% 57% 57% 53% 52% 52% 50% 50% 48% 46% 45% 41% 40% 39% 40% 29% 28% 24% 20% 0% Mali Kenya Tunisia Nigeria Ghana Gabon Malawi Angola Guinea Lesotho Ethiopia Uganda Namibia Botswana Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Côte d'Ivoire 18 country average Respondents were asked: To your knowledge, does China give loans or development assistance to our country’s government, or haven’t you had a chance to hear about this? 92% Kenya 87% 91% Guinea 63% Views on loans/development 87% Ghana 68% 87% assistance from China Uganda 64% 84% | 18 countries Mali 44% 83% | 2019/2020 Nigeria 57% 82% Gabon 58% 81% Angola 75% 79% Côte d'Ivoire 48% Namibia 79% Respondents who said they are 78% 78% aware of Chinese loans or Ethiopia 60% development assistance, were 77% Burkina Faso 38% asked: 18-country average 77% - Do you think that our 58% 72% government is required to repay Malawi 56% China for the loans and Cabo Verde 66% development assistance it 56% 63% provides to [our country]? Sierra Leone 30% 60% - Do you think our government Tunisia 41% has borrowed too much money Botswana 57% from China? 31% 37% Lesotho 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Government is required to repay China for loans Government borrowed too much money from China Gabon 39% 34% China conditionality on Burkina Faso 36% 29% Sierra Leone 32% 51% loans/assistance Lesotho 32% 27% compared to other Côte d'Ivoire 32% 27% countries Guinea 26% 41% 18 country average 24% 41% | 18 countries Nigeria 24% 36% | 2019/2020 Ghana 24% 42% Tunisia 23% 33% Respondents who said they are aware of Chinese loans or Uganda 21% 36% development assistance, were Namibia 21% 43% asked: When the government of Ethiopia 20% 60% China gives loans or development assistance to [our Kenya 17% 68% country], do you think they put Malawi 15% 31% more requirements or fewer requirements on our government Angola 14% 29% compared to other donor Botswana 13% 54% countries, or haven’t you heard Cabo Verde 10% 70% enough to say? Mali 6% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Somewhat/many more requirements Somewhat/far fewer requirements International language for children to learn Best international language for children to learn | 18 countries | 2019/2020 1% 9% 2% English 4% French Arabic 14% Chinese Other Don't know 71% Respondents were asked: In thinking about the future of the next generation in our country, which of these international languages, if any, do you think is most important for young people to learn? WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG Thank you Follow our releases on #VoicesAfrica on Twitter and Facebook. Do your own analysis of Afrobarometer data – on any question, for any country and survey round. It’s easy and free at www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis..