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Political Socialization, Public Opinion, and Polling

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Political Socialization, Public Opinion, and Polling Political Socialization, Public Opinion, and Polling asic Tenants of American olitical Culture iberty/Freedom People should be free to live their lives with minimal governmental interference quality Political, legal, & of opportunity, but not economic equality ndividualism Responsibility for own decisions emocracy Consent of the governed Majority rule, with minority rights Citizen responsibilities (voting, jury duty, etc.) olitical Culture vs. Ideology Most Americans share common beliefs in he democratic foundation of government culture) yet have differing opinions on the proper role & scope of government ideology) olitical Socialization Process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations, beliefs, and values at factors influence political opinion mation? Family #1 source for political identification Between 60-70% of all children agree with their parents upon reaching adulthood. If one switches his/her party affiliation it usually goes from Republican/Democrat to independent hat factors influence political opinion mation? School/level of education “Building good citizens”- civic education reinforces views about participation Pledge of Allegiance Volunteering Civic pride is nation wide Informed student-citizens are more likely to participate/vote as adults Voting patterns based on level of educational attainment hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Peer group/occupation Increases in importance during teen years Occupational influences hat factors influence political opinion mation? Mass media Impact of television Avg. American watches 30+ hours of TV per week Alternative sources of information gathering- Internet, radio, magazines, newspapers Growing use of “alternative” news sources- Daily Show, Colbert Report Encouraging the youth vote- Rock the Vote, Vote or Die MTV sponsored campaigns Short attention span- Avg media soundbite of 2008 election was 7seconds What factors influence political opinion ormation? Religion econd best predictor of voting behavior besides arty identification Represent large voting blocs: Religious Right, Moral Majority (‘80s), Silent Majority (‘70s) ifferences exist between religious affiliations mpact of religion & politics: Abortion, school prayer, aid to parochial schools, Elections George W. Bush Barrack Obama hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Race and ethnicity Demographic group tendencies hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Gender Females tend to focus on social issues while males key on economic policies hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Age Politicians focus on securing the elderly vote important as they represent the most consistent voting bloc Tendency to become more conservative as one ages hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Impact of events What one has experienced (Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam, 9/11) and the government’s response to it shapes how one sees the “proper” role of government in society Do you remember what you were doing when… hat factors influence political opinion rmation? . Residence location Beliefs/voting tendencies by region: Sunbelt states (Latino and elderly vote) Solid South Urban northeast Western states Midwest/rustbelt ublic Opinion What people think about an issue or set of issues at any given point in time orming political opinions Ideologues vs. the masses deologues view politics strictly on a beral/conservative ideology and vote ccordingly orming political opinions Ideologues vs. the masses The masses filter information through the scope of: Personal benefits “I” society, pocketbook voting, support issues benefiting them Political knowledge Increased political awareness increases participation (Knowing the candidates and issues) Cues from leaders Use the media to mold public opinion y is government policy often at odds with public opinion? The Framers did not try to create a government that would from day to day follow the whims of the people Constitutional checks on public opinion: Representative government Federalism Separation of powers & checks & balances The Bill of Rights An independent judiciary Difficulty in amending the Constitution Other checks such as staggered election cycles hy is government policy often at odds with public nion? s not easy to know what the public thinks lling has limits: Polling error- survey, sample, analysis, coverage Respondent knowledge of the issue(s)/event(s) onetary Control Bill of 2003 example: 200 Cincinnati residents surveyed % favored the bill, 25% did not, remaining unsure here was no such thing as the Monetary Control Bill hy is government policy often at odds with public nion? pinions of people who are active in and owledgeable about politics, carry more eight in crafting government policy decisions government attends more to the views of the litical elite (activists, interest groups, donors) an the silent majority What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Question wording- unbiased & unambiguous Proper sampling Random Representative Adequate sample size Low margin of error olling Results id polls include the following: The questions and sampling method How the respondents were contacted The number of respondents surveyed Error rate (+/- 3% or less is acceptable) What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Determining content and phrasing questions ample- “If the government takes our guns that we use to protect our families away from us, only criminals will have guns and we will all be in danger. Are you in favor of placing your family in greater danger? Yes/No” What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Selecting the sample Determine your “universe” Who do you want information from? Registered voters, ethnic group, age, gender, all Americans… What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Selecting the sample pes of sampling: a. Random- in practice nearly impossible to obtain a rue sample (under/over representation) b. Quota- draw sample based off known emographic statistics, accurate but often oversample the visible population . Stratified- use of census data to divide the country nto sampling regions. Example- Random selection of counties and metropolitan areas are taken to the total national population What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Conducting the poll #1 way still is the telephone Other methods: In-person interview, internet, call-in method ults of each… ex. Who answers the phones? Elderly more likely to be home, soap opera moms, cell v. landlines, working shifts etc What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll? Analyze and report the data ypes of political polls Traditional public opinion poll- survey to gain the public’s nput on a matter. Tracking- continuous surveys to track the rise and fall of an ssue/candidate. Reliability problems but decent measure of trends. Push- designed to plant disinformation about a candidate or ssue in the minds of those being surveyed. Purpose is to hape, rather than measure, public opinion. Poor questioning Example- John McCain v. GW Bush 2000 SC primary Exit- polls conducted at polling places on election day. Historically caused West Coast apathy aults in public opinion polling espondent Issues: Ignorance on the issue(s) Instability of views over time- impact of events alter perceptions aults in public opinion polling ling Issues: Sampling error- difference in opinion between the actual universe and the sample taken Limited respondent options & difficulty in measuring intensity of respondents’ views - Yes/No, Like/Dislike A simple “yes” does not measure the intensity of the respondent’s view of issues such as abortion, the death penalty, etc. Sensitivity to question wording- poor questions lead to poor polling results (see example on next slide) ow a pollster phrases a question an alter the response pic: Federal government housing uestion 1: “The federal government should e to it that all people have adequate using.” (59% agreed) uestion 2: “Do you believe that (insert estion 1) or each person should provide for s own housing.” (53% opposed fed housing) uestion 3: Switched the order of question 2 0% opposed federal housing) olls and Democracy Advantages Detriments ows public to express Transform leaders into nions to leaders followers ables leaders to Bandwagon effect- polls plement public manipulate public eferences on key opinion in elections & ues policy oncluding thoughts of public pinion What shapes public opinion, poll results or people’s opinions? Do the polls drive public opinion (bandwagon effect), or does public opinion drive the polls? Democratic process based on informed citizenry yet lack of public knowledge makes for misguided government policy 74% of population can name the Three Stooges 50% know the name given to the first ten Amendments 43% the three branches of government 25% can name their two senators.
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