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Statistical Inference: How Reliable Is a Survey?
Math 203, Fall 2008: Statistical Inference: How reliable is a survey? Consider a survey with a single question, to which respondents are asked to give an answer of yes or no. Suppose you pick a random sample of n people, and you find that the proportion that answered yes isp ˆ. Question: How close isp ˆ to the actual proportion p of people in the whole population who would have answered yes? In order for there to be a reliable answer to this question, the sample size, n, must be big enough so that the sample distribution is close to a bell shaped curve (i.e., close to a normal distribution). But even if n is big enough that the distribution is close to a normal distribution, usually you need to make n even bigger in order to make sure your margin of error is reasonably small. Thus the first thing to do is to be sure n is big enough for the sample distribution to be close to normal. The industry standard for being close enough is for n to be big enough so that 1 − p 1 − p n > 9 and n > 9 p p both hold. When p is about 50%, n can be as small as 10, but when p gets close to 0 or close to 1, the sample size n needs to get bigger. If p is 1% or 99%, then n must be at least 892, for example. (Note also that n here depends on p but not on the size of the whole population.) See Figures 1 and 2 showing frequency histograms for the number of yes respondents if p = 1% when the sample size n is 10 versus 1000 (this data was obtained by running a computer simulation taking 10000 samples). -
Hypothesis Testing with Two Categorical Variables 203
Chapter 10 distribute or Hypothesis Testing With Two Categoricalpost, Variables Chi-Square copy, Learning Objectives • Identify the correct types of variables for use with a chi-square test of independence. • Explainnot the difference between parametric and nonparametric statistics. • Conduct a five-step hypothesis test for a contingency table of any size. • Explain what statistical significance means and how it differs from practical significance. • Identify the correct measure of association for use with a particular chi-square test, Doand interpret those measures. • Use SPSS to produce crosstabs tables, chi-square tests, and measures of association. 202 Part 3 Hypothesis Testing Copyright ©2016 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. he chi-square test of independence is used when the independent variable (IV) and dependent variable (DV) are both categorical (nominal or ordinal). The chi-square test is member of the family of nonparametric statistics, which are statistical Tanalyses used when sampling distributions cannot be assumed to be normally distributed, which is often the result of the DV being categorical rather than continuous (we will talk in detail about this). Chi-square thus sits in contrast to parametric statistics, which are used when DVs are continuous and sampling distributions are safely assumed to be normal. The t test, analysis of variance, and correlation are all parametric. Before going into the theory and math behind the chi-square statistic, read the Research Examples for illustrations of the types of situations in which a criminal justice or criminology researcher would utilize a chi- square test. -
Political Socialization, Public Opinion, and Polling
Political Socialization, Public Opinion, and Polling asic Tenants of American olitical Culture iberty/Freedom People should be free to live their lives with minimal governmental interference quality Political, legal, & of opportunity, but not economic equality ndividualism Responsibility for own decisions emocracy Consent of the governed Majority rule, with minority rights Citizen responsibilities (voting, jury duty, etc.) olitical Culture vs. Ideology Most Americans share common beliefs in he democratic foundation of government culture) yet have differing opinions on the proper role & scope of government ideology) olitical Socialization Process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations, beliefs, and values at factors influence political opinion mation? Family #1 source for political identification Between 60-70% of all children agree with their parents upon reaching adulthood. If one switches his/her party affiliation it usually goes from Republican/Democrat to independent hat factors influence political opinion mation? School/level of education “Building good citizens”- civic education reinforces views about participation Pledge of Allegiance Volunteering Civic pride is nation wide Informed student-citizens are more likely to participate/vote as adults Voting patterns based on level of educational attainment hat factors influence political opinion rmation? Peer group/occupation Increases in importance during teen years Occupational influences hat factors influence political opinion mation? Mass media Impact -
On Becoming a Pragmatic Researcher: the Importance of Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Research Methodologies
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 482 462 TM 035 389 AUTHOR Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.; Leech, Nancy L. TITLE On Becoming a Pragmatic Researcher: The Importance of Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Research Methodologies. PUB DATE 2003-11-00 NOTE 25p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Mid-South Educational Research Association (Biloxi, MS, November 5-7, 2003). PUB TYPE Reports Descriptive (141) Speeches/Meeting Papers (150) EDRS PRICE EDRS Price MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Pragmatics; *Qualitative Research; *Research Methodology; *Researchers ABSTRACT The last 100 years have witnessed a fervent debate in the United States about quantitative and qualitative research paradigms. Unfortunately, this has led to a great divide between quantitative and qualitative researchers, who often view themselves in competition with each other. Clearly, this polarization has promoted purists, i.e., researchers who restrict themselves exclusively to either quantitative or qualitative research methods. Mono-method research is the biggest threat to the advancement of the social sciences. As long as researchers stay polarized in research they cannot expect stakeholders who rely on their research findings to take their work seriously. The purpose of this paper is to explore how the debate between quantitative and qualitative is divisive, and thus counterproductive for advancing the social and behavioral science field. This paper advocates that all graduate students learn to use and appreciate both quantitative and qualitative research. In so doing, students will develop into what is termed "pragmatic researchers." (Contains 41 references.) (Author/SLD) Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. On Becoming a Pragmatic Researcher 1 Running head: ON BECOMING A PRAGMATIC RESEARCHER U.S. -
Questionnaire Design Guidelines for Establishment Surveys
Journal of Official Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2010, pp. 43–85 Questionnaire Design Guidelines for Establishment Surveys Rebecca L. Morrison1, Don A. Dillman2, and Leah M. Christian3 Previous literature has shown the effects of question wording or visual design on the data provided by respondents. However, few articles have been published that link the effects of question wording and visual design to the development of questionnaire design guidelines. This article proposes specific guidelines for the design of establishment surveys within statistical agencies based on theories regarding communication and visual perception, experimental research on question wording and visual design, and findings from cognitive interviews with establishment survey respondents. The guidelines are applicable to both paper and electronic instruments, and cover such topics as the phrasing of questions, the use of space, the placement and wording of instructions, the design of answer spaces, and matrices. Key words: Visual design; question wording; cognitive interviews. 1. Introduction In recent years, considerable effort has been made to develop questionnaire construction guidelines for how questions should appear in establishment surveys. Examples include guidelines developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006) and Statistics Norway (Nøtnæs 2006). These guidelines have utilized the rapidly emerging research on how the choice of survey mode, question wording, and visual layout influence respondent answers, in order to improve the quality of responses and to encourage similarity of construction when more than one survey data collection mode is used. Redesign efforts for surveys at the Central Bureau of Statistics in the Netherlands (Snijkers 2007), Statistics Denmark (Conrad 2007), and the Office for National Statistics in the United Kingdom (Jones et al. -
Springer Journal Collection in Humanities, Social Sciences &
ABCD springer.com Springer Journal Collection in Humanities, Social Sciences & Law TOP QUALITY More than With over 260 journals, the Springer Humanities, and edited by internationally respected Social Sciences and Law program serves scientists, researchers and academics from 260 Journals research and academic communities around the world-leading institutions and corporations. globe, covering the fields of Philosophy, Law, Most of the journals are indexed by major Sociology, Linguistics, Education, Anthropology abstracting services. Articles are searchable & Archaeology, (Applied) Ethics, Criminology by subject, publication title, topic, author or & Criminal Justice and Population Studies. keywords on SpringerLink, the world’s most Springer journals are recognized as a source for comprehensive online collection of scientific, high-quality, specialized content across a broad technological and medical journals, books and range of interests. All journals are peer-reviewed reference works. Main Disciplines: Most Downloaded Journals in this Collection Archaeology IF 5 Year IF Education and Language 7 Journal of Business Ethics 1.125 1.603 Ethics 7 Synthese 0.676 0.783 7 Higher Education 0.823 1.249 Law 7 Early Childhood Education Journal Philosophy 7 Philosophical Studies Sociology 7 Educational Studies in Mathematics 7 ETR&D - Educational Technology Research and Development 1.081 1.770 7 Social Indicators Research 1.000 1.239 Society Partners 7 Research in Higher Education 1.221 1.585 Include: 7 Agriculture and Human Values 1.054 1.466 UNESCO 7 International Review of Education Population Association 7 Research in Science Education 0.853 1.112 of America 7 Biology & Philosophy 0.829 1.299 7 Journal of Happiness Studies 2.104 Society for Community Research and Action All Impact Factors are from 2010 Journal Citation Reports® − Thomson Reuters. -
Outline of Science
Outline of science The following outline is provided as a topical overview of • Empirical method – science: • Experimental method – The steps involved in order Science – systematic effort of acquiring knowledge— to produce a reliable and logical conclusion include: through observation and experimentation coupled with logic and reasoning to find out what can be proved or 1. Asking a question about a natural phenomenon not proved—and the knowledge thus acquired. The word 2. Making observations of the phenomenon “science” comes from the Latin word “scientia” mean- 3. Forming a hypothesis – proposed explanation ing knowledge. A practitioner of science is called a for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a "scientist". Modern science respects objective logical rea- scientific hypothesis, the scientific method re- soning, and follows a set of core procedures or rules in or- quires that one can test it. Scientists generally der to determine the nature and underlying natural laws of base scientific hypotheses on previous obser- the universe and everything in it. Some scientists do not vations that cannot satisfactorily be explained know of the rules themselves, but follow them through with the available scientific theories. research policies. These procedures are known as the 4. Predicting a logical consequence of the hy- scientific method. pothesis 5. Testing the hypothesis through an experiment – methodical procedure carried out with the 1 Essence of science goal of verifying, falsifying, or establishing the validity of a hypothesis. The 3 types of -
Esomar/Grbn Guideline for Online Sample Quality
ESOMAR/GRBN GUIDELINE FOR ONLINE SAMPLE QUALITY ESOMAR GRBN ONLINE SAMPLE QUALITY GUIDELINE ESOMAR, the World Association for Social, Opinion and Market Research, is the essential organisation for encouraging, advancing and elevating market research: www.esomar.org. GRBN, the Global Research Business Network, connects 38 research associations and over 3500 research businesses on five continents: www.grbn.org. © 2015 ESOMAR and GRBN. Issued February 2015. This Guideline is drafted in English and the English text is the definitive version. The text may be copied, distributed and transmitted under the condition that appropriate attribution is made and the following notice is included “© 2015 ESOMAR and GRBN”. 2 ESOMAR GRBN ONLINE SAMPLE QUALITY GUIDELINE CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ................................................................................................... 4 2 DEFINITIONS .............................................................................................................................. 4 3 KEY REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................................................ 6 3.1 The claimed identity of each research participant should be validated. .................................................. 6 3.2 Providers must ensure that no research participant completes the same survey more than once ......... 8 3.3 Research participant engagement should be measured and reported on ............................................... 9 3.4 The identity and personal -
SAMPLING DESIGN & WEIGHTING in the Original
Appendix A 2096 APPENDIX A: SAMPLING DESIGN & WEIGHTING In the original National Science Foundation grant, support was given for a modified probability sample. Samples for the 1972 through 1974 surveys followed this design. This modified probability design, described below, introduces the quota element at the block level. The NSF renewal grant, awarded for the 1975-1977 surveys, provided funds for a full probability sample design, a design which is acknowledged to be superior. Thus, having the wherewithal to shift to a full probability sample with predesignated respondents, the 1975 and 1976 studies were conducted with a transitional sample design, viz., one-half full probability and one-half block quota. The sample was divided into two parts for several reasons: 1) to provide data for possibly interesting methodological comparisons; and 2) on the chance that there are some differences over time, that it would be possible to assign these differences to either shifts in sample designs, or changes in response patterns. For example, if the percentage of respondents who indicated that they were "very happy" increased by 10 percent between 1974 and 1976, it would be possible to determine whether it was due to changes in sample design, or an actual increase in happiness. There is considerable controversy and ambiguity about the merits of these two samples. Text book tests of significance assume full rather than modified probability samples, and simple random rather than clustered random samples. In general, the question of what to do with a mixture of samples is no easier solved than the question of what to do with the "pure" types. -
Lecture 1: Why Do We Use Statistics, Populations, Samples, Variables, Why Do We Use Statistics?
1pops_samples.pdf Michael Hallstone, Ph.D. [email protected] Lecture 1: Why do we use statistics, populations, samples, variables, why do we use statistics? • interested in understanding the social world • we want to study a portion of it and say something about it • ex: drug users, homeless, voters, UH students Populations and Samples Populations, Sampling Elements, Frames, and Units A researcher defines a group, “list,” or pool of cases that she wishes to study. This is a population. Another definition: population = complete collection of measurements, objects or individuals under study. 1 of 11 sample = a portion or subset taken from population funny circle diagram so we take a sample and infer to population Why? feasibility – all MD’s in world , cost, time, and stay tuned for the central limits theorem...the most important lecture of this course. Visualizing Samples (taken from) Populations Population Group you wish to study (Mostly made up of “people” in the Then we infer from sample back social sciences) to population (ALWAYS SOME ERROR! “sampling error” Sample (a portion or subset of the population) 4 This population is made up of the things she wishes to actually study called sampling elements. Sampling elements can be people, organizations, schools, whales, molecules, and articles in the popular press, etc. The sampling element is your exact unit of analysis. For crime researchers studying car thieves, the sampling element would probably be individual car thieves – or theft incidents reported to the police. For drug researchers the sampling elements would be most likely be individual drug users. Inferential statistics is truly the basis of much of our scientific evidence. -
Integrating Traditional and Scientific Knowledge Through Collaborative Natural Science Field Research: Identifying Elements for Success Author(S): HENRY P
Integrating Traditional and Scientific Knowledge through Collaborative Natural Science Field Research: Identifying Elements for Success Author(s): HENRY P. HUNTINGTON, SHARI GEARHEARD, ANDREW R. MAHONEY and ANNE K. SALOMON Source: Arctic, Vol. 64, No. 4 (DECEMBER 2011), pp. 437-445 Published by: Arctic Institute of North America Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41319238 . Accessed: 19/04/2013 19:36 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Arctic Institute of North America is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Arctic. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 142.104.194.93 on Fri, 19 Apr 2013 19:36:47 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions ARCTIC VOL.64, NO. 4(DECEMBER 2011)P. 437-445 Integrating Traditional and Scientific Knowledge through Collaborative Natural Science Field Research: Identifying Elements for Success HENRY P. HUNTINGTON,1SHARI GEARHEARD,2ANDREW R. MAHONEY3 and ANNE K. SALOMON4 ( Received23 December 2010; accepted in revised form 21 April 2011) ABSTRACT.We discuss two recent projects to examine the role of collaborative environmental fieldwork both in research and inthe interactions between academically trained researchers and experienced local residents. -
Methodological Fit in Management Field Research
Academy of Management Review 2007, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1155–1179. METHODOLOGICAL FIT IN MANAGEMENT FIELD RESEARCH AMY C. EDMONDSON Harvard Business School STACY E. MCMANUS Monitor Executive Development Methodological fit, an implicitly valued attribute of high-quality field research in organizations, has received little attention in the management literature. Fit refers to internal consistency among elements of a research project—research question, prior work, research design, and theoretical contribution. We introduce a contingency framework that relates prior work to the design of a research project, paying particular attention to the question of when to mix qualitative and quantitative data in a single research paper. We discuss implications of the framework for educating new field researchers. To advance management theory, a growing This article introduces a framework for as- number of scholars are engaging in field re- sessing and promoting methodological fit as an search, studying real people, real problems, and overarching criterion for ensuring quality field real organizations. Although the potential rele- research. We define methodological fit as inter- vance of field research is motivating, the re- nal consistency among elements of a research search journey can be messy and inefficient, project (see Table 1 for four key elements of field fraught with logistical hurdles and unexpected research). Although articles based on field re- events. Researchers manage complex relation- search in leading academic journals usually ex- ships with sites, cope with constraints on sam- hibit a high degree of methodological fit, guide- ple selection and timing of data collection, and lines for ensuring it are not readily available. often confront mid-project changes to planned Beyond the observation that qualitative data are research designs.