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LUFTLED 3 2019.Indd LUFTMAKTSTIDSSKRIFT // NR. 3 DESEMBER 2019 TEMA: Norsk tilstedeværelse AVSKREKKING Eskalering kan være smart Konsekvenser av OG BEROLIGELSE langt rekkende våpen 03 LEDER Espen Gukild 06 DETERRENCE AND DEFENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY Diego Ruiz Palmer, Joerg See and Fernando Alvarez Gomez-Lechon 10 04 DETERRENCE AND REASSURANCE IN THE HIGH NORTH AVSKREKKING Svein Efjestad OG BEROLIGELSE 14 VIKTIG MED NORSK TILSTEDEVÆRELSE Vårt NATO medlemskap har siden Sverre Nordahl Engeness, Jonny Didriksen, starten vært Norges avskrekking Eystein Kvarving og Hanne Bragstad mot Sovjetunionen og nå mot Russland. Alliansetilknytningen 18 har hele tiden blitt balansert med A PRIMER ON EXTENDED DETERRENCE beroligelse ved våre nasjonale Stephanie Pezard selvpåførte restriksjoner. Hvordan er balansen i dag? 22 Bildet viser F-86 Sabre i formasjon ESKALATION KAN VARA SMART en gang på 1960-tallet. – ÄVEN FÖR EN SVAGARE PART Foto: Luftforsvarsmuseet Jan Ångstrom och Magnus Petersson 26 UTVIKLINGEN AV LANGTREKKENDE KONVENSJONELLE PRESISJONSVÅPEN – KONSEKVENSER FOR NORGE Ørjan Askvik 30 50 56 F-35 – OM AVSKREKKELSE, KRISE STABILITET PIONERENE BOKOMTALE: ET FARLIGERE NORGE? OG OPERASJONSKONSEPT Laila Kvammen Lie Ole M Tørrisplass 58 54 NEWSLETTER 34 GLIMT FRA JUBILEUMSÅRET SVENSKE PERSPEKTIVER Kjell R. Bugge 59 Tom Henry Knutsen LMS FORENINGSNYTT 38 ET BILATERALT SCENARIO I NORDOMRÅDENE Kristian Kvalheim, Martin Grunne og Christian Robbins Forfatteren er ansvarlig for DESIGN, TRYKK OG LUFTLED innholdet. Redaksjonen DISTRIBUSJON: xide.no 42 UTGIS AV LUFTMILITÆRT forbeholder seg retten til å NORWAY: THE DEFENDER OF NATO’S SAMFUND (LMS) forkorte innlegget. NESTE UTGAVE: Bygning 31, Mars 2020. NORTHERN FLANK Postboks 1550 Sentrum, REDAKTØR: Svein Holtan Deadline materiell: Michael Koscheski N-0015 Oslo [email protected] 15. februar 2020 48 E-POST: [email protected] FORSIDE: Duncan Bevan, © All gjengivelse fra TLF: 992 08 711 USAF. Norsk F-16 flyr sammen magasinet skal LUFTFORSVARET 75 ÅR WEBSIDE: www.luftmils.no med USAF B-52H over Barents- krediteres LUFTLED. – FOR ET JUBILEUMSÅR! havet 6. november 2019. Hedvig Antoinette Halgunset 2 LUFTLED 3 2019 LEDER «MIN BÅT ER SÅ LITEN OG HAVET SÅ STORT» ersom Norge er båten og havet våre utenriks- og øst, og integrasjon og avskjerming med USA, har vært tema i norsk sikkerhets politiske omgivelser, så er teksten i søndags- forsvars- og sikkerhetspolitikk siden da. Summen av avskrekkende skolesangen ganske treffende. Styringen av båten ivaretas og beroligende tiltak trenger ikke være konstant, ei heller vektingen i imidlertid av våre politiske myndigheter og ikke av balansen. Våre politikere har navigert på vårt sikkerhetspolitiske hav Dsubjektet i sangen. og balansert våre sikkerhetsinteresser under ulike forhold. Forsvaret Norge er en småstat med store og sterke krefter rundt oss, de som organisasjon med personell, materiell og doktriner er selv et største er USA og Russland. Selv har vi en liten befolkning, men en lodd i denne balanseringen. Ordskiftet om hva som er riktig kurs lang kystlinje og forholdsvis store interesseområder på land, sjøen og har variert over tid og i intensitet. Nå står Norge overfor en mer i lufta. I tillegg ligger våre interesseområder strategisk til, spesielt for alvorlig situasjon enn på lenge. Derfor har Luftled satt «avskrekking vår nabo i øst med tilgangen til Atlanterhavet. og beroligelse» som tema for denne utgaven. En erfaring fra 2. verdenskrig var at vi måtte skaffe oss en mer Inneværende langtidsplan representerer for mange et skille fra eksplisitt, pålitelig og avskrekkende sikkerhetsgaranti for fremtiden. en periode med crisis response operations og innsats utenlands som Royal Navy sin fordums storhet hadde vist seg irrelevant. Sammen- hovedsatsingsområde, til en virkelighet hvor «collective defense» og holdt med utviklingen etter fredsslutningen ble vi medlem av Nato forsvar av eget territorium er det som gjelder. Etter år med satsing på og fikk USA som realpolitisk avskrekker og sikkerhetsgarantist. Vårt individuelle kapasiteter og avdelinger for bidrag ute er det imidlertid alliansemedlemskap ble imidlertid balansert med tiltak og selvpålagte ikke smertefritt å stille Forsvaret klart som system hjemme. Dette er restriksjoner for beroligelse overfor det tidligere Sovjetunionen. En anskueliggjort i Forsvarssjefens foreliggende fagmilitære råd. annen beskrivelse for analysen er balanseringen mellom integrasjon og avskjerming med våre allierte, slik Rolf Tamnes har beskrevet det. Vi ønsker alle medlemmer og lesere en riktig god jul og et Balanseringen mellom avskrekking og beroligelse overfor naboen i godt nytt år. «Summen av avskrekkende og beroligende tiltak trenger ikke være konstant, ei heller vektingen i balansen» OBERSTLØYTNANT ESPEN GUKILD Leder LMS Leder Espen Gukild Kasserer Andreas Lygre Styremedlem Varamedlem Olav Aamoth Torgny Segerstedsvei 13, 1517 Moss Lstn Sørreisa, 9310 Sørreisa Christine H. Torjussen Hvalskroken 29, 1394 Nesbru Tlf: 951 73 389 Tlf: 941 05 866 Tlf: 906 66 479 Tlf: 66 84 85 43/938 62 325 E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] Nestleder Hans Magnus Lie Styremedlem Knut Fredrik Fossum Varamedlem Reidar Ødegaard Goenveien 4, 1580 Rygge Nedre Gleinåsen 16, 3440 Røyken Bjørnåsveien 119, 1596 Moss Tlf: 976 97 880 Tlf: 31 28 58 83/976 08 028 Tlf: 907 78 438 E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] Sekretær Kjell R. Bugge Styremedlem Ida Bjørklund Heggheim Varamedlem Øyvind Kirsebom Strandman Risøyveien 29, 3290 Stavern Munkerudveien 79 G, 1165 Oslo Kløfteneveien 19, 1642 Saltnes Tlf: 992 08 711 Tlf: 980 52 738 Tlf: 992 087 66 E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] E-post: [email protected] LUFTLED 3 2019 3 ET STØRRE ALVOR Forsvarssjefen og politikerne er samstemte i sin analyse; Norge står overfor et større alvor. Det er mer russisk aktivitet og den er lenger vest og sør enn hva vi har vært vant til. I tillegg er operasjonsmønsteret mer aggressivt enn tidligere. Samtidig har Russland utviklet nye våpen med lang rekkevidde og god presisjon som kan true hele Norge. Som NATO-medlem kan Norge vise muskler sammen med våre allierte og avskrekke Russland. Et eksempel på dette var da fem norske F-16 fra Luftforsvaret eskorterte tre B-52H Stratofortress fra US Air Force over Barentshavet den 6 november i år, da bildet ble tatt. Som nabo til Russland har Norge ført en politikk med å balansere avskrekkingen med beroligelse, blant annet ved at Norge har en rekke selvpålagte restriksjoner. Hvilke vurderinger legges til grunn når det nå er et større alvor i nord? Foto: Trevor T. McBride, U.S. Air Force AVSKREKKING OG BEROLIGELSE NATO´S POSTURE: DETERRENCE AND DEFENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY NATO’s principal task is to ensure the protection of its citizens and to promote security and stability in the North Atlantic area1. To that end, NATO’s overall posture is intended to deter and defend against the full range of threats to the Alliance, protecting Allied territory and populations. TEXT: SPECIAL ADVISOR DIEGO RUIZ PALMER, DEFENCE POLICY AND PLANNING (DPP) DIVISION OF THE INTERNATIONAL STAFF AT NATO HQ MR JOERG SEE, DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL FOR DEFENCE POLICY AND PLANNING MR. FERNANDO ALVAREZ GOMEZ-LECHON, NATO INTERNATIONAL STAFF’S DEFENCE POLICY AND CAPABILITIES DIRECTORATE ATO’s posture has evolved significantly over time. During the Cold War, NATO sought to deter the Soviet Union while defending against it if necessary. In the post-Cold war era, the focus shifted «A key element of STRENGTHENED DETERRENCE AND DEFENCE Nfrom collective defence towards cooperative security the strengthened POSTURE and crisis management as NATO engaged in missions deterrence and At the 2016 Warsaw Summit Allies took critical outside of Allied territory. However, in the wake of defence posture decisions to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence the illegal annexation of Crimea and the conflict in is NATO’s forward posture, building upon the work undertaken since eastern Ukraine, the allies sought to refocus efforts on presence» the Wales Summit of 2014. These decisions aimed at deterrence and defence, while also retaining the ability increasing responsiveness, heightening readiness, and to conduct out of area operations, contributing to the improving reinforcement, the three areas of strategic broader fight against terrorism and building partner importance that underpin NATO´s deterrence and capacity2. defence posture3. 6 LUFTLED 3 2019 • Increasing responsiveness entails being prepared «As a means to prevent conflict and war, credible deterrence and to decide and act quickly. This requires having the defence is essential and will continue to be based on an appropriate capabilities to respond (right forces, in the right place mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defence capabilities» at the right time) and timely and effective decision making. • Heightening readiness means ensuring that 1 NATO, Deterrence and defence, [ website], 2019, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_133127.htm, 2 K. Palauskas, “The Alliance’s evolving posture: towards a theory of everything”, NATO Review, 6 July 2018, forces are prepared to deploy and respond effectively in https://www.nato.int/docu/ review/articles/2018/07/06/the-alliances-evolving-posture-towards-a-theory-of-everything/index.html. any scenario, including those that require large combat 3 P. Turner, “NATO at 70: what defence policy and planning priorities”, NATO Defense College Policy
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