Flood Risk Management in the Unembanked Areas: an Optimal Approach?
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? Master thesis of the Delft University of Technology By K. Knulst Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? 2017-04-17 1 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? 2017-04-17 2 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? Master Thesis Delft University of Technology 4 May 2017 K. Knulst Graduation committee: Prof. dr. ir. Kok, M TU Delft / HKV Dr. Kolen, B TU Delft / HKV Dr. ir. Van Ledden, M TU Delft / Royal HaskoningDHV Zaaijer, B Vopak Ir. Maclennan, T Vopak Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences · Delft University of Technology 2017-04-17 3 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? Preface This is my graduation thesis for the master Civil Engineering and Geoscience at the Delft University of Technology. It is my last step of becoming an engineer. This last step has been made under the supervision of the university and the company Vopak. It has been an interesting endeavour to see how theory from my study and experience from the company’s practice could be combined into a useful thesis. Here I want to thank my supervisors. Bas Kolen, for being reachable and being positive. Matthijs Kok and Mathijs van Ledden for showing interest in the results and having experience-loaded questions. Betty Zaaijer and Tom Maclennan I think you did admirably in supporting my graduation process. A graduate student was new for you, and since graduating is always new for the student, I could not help you with that. When feedback or help was needed I could always ask for which I am very grateful. 2017-04-17 4 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? 2017-04-17 5 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? Table of Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Background ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Flood risk ................................................................................................................................... 13 Climate change in the Netherlands ......................................................................................... 13 Dutch flood risk management.................................................................................................. 14 Unembanked areas ................................................................................................................... 15 Rotterdam harbor ..................................................................................................................... 15 Risk regulation for industrial companies (BRZO) .................................................................... 17 Research objective ............................................................................................................................ 18 Thesis outline ..................................................................................................................................... 19 2 How to look upon flood risk..................................................................................................................... 21 Flood risk policies .............................................................................................................................. 21 National embanked flood risk policies .................................................................................... 21 Flood risk policies for the unembanked areas ........................................................................ 21 Flood risk assessment at a BRZO company ..................................................................................... 23 Risk categories........................................................................................................................... 23 Risk evaluation type .................................................................................................................. 24 The additional costs of risk reducing measures ...................................................................... 26 The cost of cooperation............................................................................................................ 26 Aversion of large consequences .............................................................................................. 27 Uncertainty in information ....................................................................................................... 27 Flood risk assessment of a liquid bulk company ............................................................................. 28 The requirements ..................................................................................................................... 28 Flood risk assessments in unembanked areas ........................................................................ 28 Flood risk assessments for tank storage of liquid bulk .......................................................... 30 3 Flood risk assessment method ................................................................................................................ 31 Summary of the method ................................................................................................................... 31 Process overview ............................................................................................................................... 32 The processes in detail ...................................................................................................................... 34 C.1 Description of the object as a system ............................................................................... 34 C.2 Frame of reference &the evaluation criteria .................................................................... 34 C.3 Identify the possible undesired events and their probability ......................................... 36 2017-04-17 6 of 114 Flood risk management in the unembanked areas: an optimal approach? C.4 Possible effects of undesired events ................................................................................. 37 C.5 Probability of the effects given an undesired event ........................................................ 38 C.6 Estimation of the consequence of the effects .................................................................. 38 C.7 Risk calculation ................................................................................................................... 40 C.8 Evaluation & Decision......................................................................................................... 41 4 Flood risk assessment: Vopak in 2050 .................................................................................................... 43 The company and its operation ....................................................................................................... 43 Terminal locations..................................................................................................................... 43 How a Vopak terminal operates .............................................................................................. 44 Systemized terminal ................................................................................................................. 44 Frame of reference & Evaluation criteria ........................................................................................ 46 Risk zones .................................................................................................................................. 46 Cost Benefit ratios..................................................................................................................... 47 Net present value of the risk .................................................................................................... 48 Earlier implementation ............................................................................................................. 48 Positive area effect ................................................................................................................... 48 The inundation probability ............................................................................................................... 49 Flood risk reducing measures in the harbor ........................................................................... 50 How flooding will occur in the Rotterdam harbor .................................................................. 52 Possible effects of inundation .......................................................................................................... 53 Influence of objects on risk categories .................................................................................... 53 Event tree for each risk category ............................................................................................