Joshua Glueck

A Blessing In Disguise

Introduction

A great number of Syrian refugees have sought asylum in Germany. The country has long struggled with an aging population and decreasing birth rates. While this influx might temper a part of this problem, it will also cause a shift in the German society.

Many of the refugee are skilled workers with families. This is a significant difference to other waves of immigrants in recent history. They are not a new cheap labor force, but in the long term, an infusion of youth to an aging society, provoking friction among the

German population political debate in the establishment. Even though the assimilation of the refugees raise many concerns and economic burdens, the immigrants will prove to be a blessing in disguise.

Crisis Zone: Syria

On December 17th, 2010 an unprecedented wave of demonstrations against the

Government started in Tunisia. These demonstrations turned into a movement that became known as the “Arab Spring”. Its effect spread through many countries in the

Middle East and Northern Africa; From Tunisia into Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and

Bahrain, with the impact felt all over the world. The Arab Spring was the spark to affect prominent social change in countries that historically have authoritarian repressive tendencies. Although the "Arab Spring" ultimately repressed and fell short of achieving short term success, political changes are still in process. The most violent and sole ongoing effect from the Arab Spring, is the brutal civil war still tormenting the country of

Syria. The war has been raging since March 2011 and there is no end in sight. This has

1 Joshua Glueck caused a mass exodus of Syrians. The refugees have to leave Syria in order not to get caught in the middle of the war, taking grave risks to make the journey. The poorest, with little money available, and hardly more than the clothes on their backs, wind up in countries bordering Syria. These countries have taken in close to 5 million refugees.

According to Amnesty International, “93% of Syrian refugees, who live mostly in the urban areas of Jordan, are living below the poverty line. The same goes for 70% of the

Syrian refugees in Lebanon, 65% in Egypt and 37% in Iraq.”1 Essentially, the poorest

Syrian refugees cross the border to just get out of harms way. Those refugees who are well educated, and come from a middle class background, have more funds available.

They can afford to travel to Europe. This helps to explain the different demographics of immigrants that seek refuge in Europe versus those who have to seek it closer to home2.

Syrian refugees have been welcomed to varying degrees across Europe. No nation (in

Europe) was as receptive and welcoming to the refugees as Germany. German

Chancellor, Angela Merkel, was very outspoken about Europe's responsibility and hence

Germany’s stance. Of course, many Syrians took notice of this. Germany is the most powerful and influential nation in the European Union. It is at this time, economically best equipped to take on the Syrian refugees. Most Syrians who were headed for

Europe had Germany in mind as their final destination.

Political Movement to the Right and Left

There has been a recent wave of populism that has left no democracy in Europe unaffected. The plight of the Syrian refugees has given rise to many populist political parties. They found a common cause to gather supporters who, for the most part, fear

2 Joshua Glueck the effect of the refugees. Germany is a special case, since there has been not only an emerging political movement on the right, but also on the left of the political spectrum.

The only other comparable country is Austria. The election of a new government in

Austria has already taken place, and Alexander Van der Bellen, an independent running with the support of the Austrian Green Party, won against the right-wing opposition leader Nortbert Hofer. Germany’s general elections will take place in November 2017 and the race for German Chancellor is far closer than what was initially expected.3

The German political parties have, ever since the end of WW II (1945), been aware of the pitfalls of populism. As an aftermath of said war, the country was separated into 4 zones. This was in accordance with the Potsdam Agreement of 19454. Each one of these zones were, in turn, administrated by American, British, French and Soviet military governments. While there were many political relevant reasons for the separation of

Germany into these zones, the prevention of the return of a right-wing fascist state was it's most important objective. The reconstruction of Germany as a politically stable democratic state was the objective of the United States, France and Great Britain, The

USSR believed in a Federal Marxist–Leninist one-party socialist state, like the one in the USSR. It was the beginning of The Cold War. This led to the founding of the Federal

Republic of Germany in the former American, British and French zones (West Germany, democratic) and the German Democratic Republic in the former Soviet zone (DDR/ East

Germany, communist). In 1989 the people of the DDR initiated a peaceful revolution.

Some 44 years after WW II ended, with the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9th

1989, the end of East Germany as a separate state and it's communist regime was at

3 Joshua Glueck hand. It was the beginning of the end of a divided Germany. On October 3rd, 1990

Germany was officially reunified.

A reunited Federal Republic of Germany with as a federal parliamentary system was established, with a decentralized governmental system. This prevents any one political belief, figure, or party from having absolute power. The German parliamentary system, also allows many different parties, and views to be represented in the

Reichstag, the German congress. Furthermore, Germany also has very strict laws to prevent hate speeches, clearly defining the difference with the free speech. These makes it against the law for people to make hateful remarks in public, especially with regards to Neo-Nazis rhetoric. Nevertheless, Germany has seen a rise in right-wing populist parties, namely the NPD (Germany’s Neo-Nazi party), PEGIDA (Patriotic

Europeans Against the Islamization of the West), and the greatest challenge since the

Syrian Refugee crisis, the AFD (Alternative for Germany). Both the AFD and the NPD were founded before the Syrian crisis even started, but only as of recently have they truly been able to rally voters. The PEGIDA has lost the momentum it was able to gather at the beginning of the crisis, when it was founded, but nevertheless poses a serious threat to Germany’s Democracy and is symbolic for how quickly political momentum can be attained. The AFD is, currently, the greatest far-right challenger for Angela Merkel,

Germany’s current Chancellor. “AfD was founded in 2003 as a platform to oppose

financial bailouts to indebted countries in the Eurozone and has since morphed into an anti-immigrant party that is forecast to enter parliament for the first time in a federal election on the 24th of September [2017].”5 The AFD has ultra-nationalist goals and ideas for the future of Germany, including preventing more Syrian from entering the

4 Joshua Glueck country and putting a stop to refugees attaining asylum in Germany6. To see the effects that the AFD has had, one has to look no further than Angela Merkel. She was forced into altering her stance on Syrian refugees. Initially she was very open to granting asylum, but since late 2015 her stance has changed to a more reserved and cautious approach. This change change was not only due to pressure by the far right, but also the emerging left and right leaning members of her own government coalition7.

Immigration is the easiest topic to exploit and seems to be the common denominator among emerging populist movements across all European democracies.

While other factors play a key role, immigration seems to be the central topic that dominates political discussions and the news8, examples include Brexit and the election of Donald Trump president in 2016. This is no different in Germany, Angela Merkel is being attacked from all sides, from both her political opponents and allies. This is also what makes Germany and Austria unique, as they are the only two European countries where there has been an equal pull from both the right and left side of the current governing party. The Syrian refugees have inadvertently created a huge problem for democracies across Europe. They provide a scapegoat and a current issue for the populist parties of Europe to attack and point fingers at. Populist parties and their followers believe to have a cause that can spurn their political rise. The German center- left party, SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), and the center right, CDU

(Christian Democratic Union of Germany), are both being pushed further left and right, respectively, by the populist parties on their side of the political spectrum. The SPD is being pushed farther left by the Linke. While the Linke was always a far left party, only recently, have they emerged as a progressively more populist party9. The CDU has

5 Joshua Glueck been urged further to the right by the AFD and its sister-party, CSU. The CSU has been trying to appeal to its voter base in Bavaria, and the party leader, Horst Seehofer, has had to fight off accusations of being a populist10. Merkel has always had strained relation with the CSU, however they have always been able to find a common ground11.

This is because Angela Merkel is a very centrist politician, while the CSU has always had right leaning tendencies. And while it seems like Merkel and the CSU have been able to find a silver lining once again, the public strained relations did not help Merkel in her fight to fend off strong opposition from all sides of the political spectrum in

Germany12.

Angela Merkel has been the German chancellor since November 2005, succeeding SPD politician Gerhard Schröder. Since then she has dominated the

German federal elections in 2009 (+10.8% to closest competition) and 2013 (+15.8% to closest competition). In all of the federal elections Merkel won, the SPD endorsed the runner-up. In all three elections in which the she was victorious, the SPD candidate was a generally respected candidate with a lot of experience. The SPD candidate for the

2017 federal election is former European Parliament president Martin Schulz. While he lacks the pedigree of previous SPD candidates domestically, he is a much more controversial politician. He is very well known for being extremely outspoken and brash at times13. He had multiple controversies while in office in the European Parliament and has not been active in national politics since 1994, while only holding minor political roles within the SPD14. He is hailed as an opponent to populism by some15, and as a

Europhile populist16 by others. One thing is for sure, he is a disrupter to current German politics17. Schulz has been able to generate momentum and is gaining ground in the

6 Joshua Glueck polls between himself and Angela Merkel. Schulz is by no means as politically extreme as many other rising political figures across Europe, but he is a contentious political

figure head18.19

Turkish Migrant Workers in Germany

Germany has had previous experience with mass immigration from the middle east. In 1961 Turkey and Germany agreed on a deal that would allow Turkish workers to migrate to Germany in search for jobs. There was a strong need of a larger (cheap) labor force after the German Economic Miracle of the 1950's. German workers were no longer widely prepared to do to do menial jobs. Turkey’s economy, in great turmoil with high unemployment rates, became a welcome relief. The Turkish immigrants were considered "guest" workers (“Gastarbeiter”) and were expected to move back to Turkey once the economic situation had improved back home. Additionally, the migrants were supposed to help Turkey make an economic step forward from a rural agricultural to an industrialized economy. Within 12 years, 900,000 Turks had migrated to Germany, and that number has now risen to 3 million living in Germany today. As most of the migrant workers, contrary to expectations, did not move back to Turkey. Furthermore, there were a lot more skilled workers who moved to Germany than were expected. In fact, the capital Berlin, has the largest "Turkish" population of any other city outside of Turkey.20

Turkey suffered from what macro-economists refer to as a brain drain: “a significant emigration of educated or talented individuals. A brain drain can result from turmoil within a nation, from there being better professional opportunities in other countries or from people seeking a better standard of living.”21 The migrant skilled labor force did very well to find work within the emerging German economy, so well in fact that there

7 Joshua Glueck was a second wave of families that migrated to Germany in the 70’s and 80’s. They joined their families that had migrated in the 60’s.22

Although initially the workers only had a two year work permit to stay in Germany, by 1964 the contracts were revised and Turkish migrants were allowed to stay indefinitely. Roughly half a million of the Turkish migrants moved back to Turkey, yet the numbers of people in Germany with Turkish origin grew steadily, as their families grew stronger roots in their new home23. So much so, that by 1980 there were 1.5 million people with Turkish origin living in Germany, and 2.1 million by 199824.

The migrant workers were a contributing factor, to the economic growth Germany has sustained through the decades25, there were also downsides to the migration. While the migrants did well to join the economy, they still struggled to assimilate culturally. This has led to a lot of criticism and fierce debates in political circles26. According to Die Welt, a prominent and well respected German newspaper, although half of the people in

Germany of Turkish origins were born in Germany, and many others have lived there for over 30 years, they still don't integrate well into German society. No immigrant group in

Germany differs more strongly from Germans than the Turkish: on average they are less educated, have lower wages, and have higher unemployment rates. Only 32% of

Turkish immigrants have accepted German citizenship, so far27. Critiques of German migration policies are quick to point out that the Turkish migrants prime of their labor capacity has already long passed The German economy is too industrialized for most of the Turkish migrants and their families to find a sustainable job28. But the problem of integration is not only the migrants fault. The German government failed to provide adequate programs that would ease the integration process. “Ismail Tipi [of Turkish

8 Joshua Glueck descent], the CDU politician, believes that both Turks and Germans have been fooling themselves for far too long. "It was an illusion to believe that we were all just guest workers and would eventually go back to Turkey.””29 Many migrants feared that the life, if they went back to Turkey, would not be what they expected and that they would be unable to return to Germany. “But because they needed more space, the Turks began moving out of the dormitories and into cheap apartments in neighborhoods near the factories, which the Germans gradually vacated. This led to the rise of immigrant neighborhoods like Marxloh in the western city of Duisburg and Neukölln in Berlin, which are now seen as the strongholds of so-called parallel societies.”30 These isolation communities create an even greater division between the migrants and the average

German.

Political Implications

There have been great efforts by the German government to ease the integration process of the Syrian refugees into Germany. The Government believes that education and jobs are the key to integrating the refugees. There have been multiple programs put into place to help speed this process. There are German language courses being offered, and there is a great emphasis on making sure that the children learn German as quickly as possible. This would allow for a more seamless integration of refugee children into the German public school system. Also programs to help the youth catch up to the educational levels of German's of the same age levels. The standard of education varies vastly among the different age groups of the the refugees.

Reports from 2011 show that approximately 15% of the general Syrian population are illiterate, while only 3.5% in the age group of 15-25 year olds. In 1981 Syria

9 Joshua Glueck introduced a law making it mandatory for children to stay in school for at least six years.

The law was revised in 2002, to nine years of mandatory school education. The Syrian school education is viewed as fairly rigorous. This, according to the Minister of

Education and Cultural Affairs In Germany31. There have also been a few major German corporations that have offered jobs and specialized training for the newcomers. But most of the training that has been made available to refugees has been derived from state jobs. Such initiatives have just started, since most of the refugees are still in the education phase of the assimilation. There are also multiple websites, where refugees can search for available jobs. The government also provides the refugees with housing and depending on their status, with varying degrees of services.

Economic Effect

German opposition to the authorizing of asylum for refugees claim that refugees take jobs from Germans. Interestingly, there are 37,000 apprenticeships that are unfilled in the country right now. Many companies are eager to fill these training positions with refugees, since they pave the way for future jobs. If they remain unoccupied, it could lead to a loss of 6.5 million jobs in the economy32. Germany has an aging population and thus is expecting a decline in the available labor force.The International Monetary

Fund has urged Germany to start programs to ease the anticipated loss in the labor force by 2020. These programs would also provide Syrians with jobs and allow the

German economy to prevent a dramatic economic recession. Forecasts predict that the

German population will decrease approximately by 15% by 2050. The workforce is expected to decrease by around 30%. Critics of this theory will point out that immigration alone will not cure this problem. It would take around 500,000 new

10 Joshua Glueck immigrants per year to sustain the current economic levels33. While the current level of immigrants might not be able to offset the effect of the aging population, it will help to slow down it's effects.

Germany had 15.1 million people above the age of 67 in 2013. This number is expected to rise to 21.5 million by 2040. This will have grave effects on all government run welfare and social security programs. The retirement age was lifted from 65 to 67 in

200734, and is expected that it will once again be increase to the age of 69 or even further35. The immigrants currently employed in Germany have added 22 billion Euros to the German social security system in 2015.36The reason being, that they have to pay higher taxes and receive lower welfare payments than German citizens. The effects of the Syrian refugees will have on the German economy will be positive and will help fight economic issues in the long run.

Federal Elections 2017

Politically, the Syrian refugees have unwittingly provided for a rise in populism in

Europe. Germany however, is a unique case. The rising populist movements on both the left and right of the political spectrum, negate each other. That will not allow the political balance to be shifted as significantly as some might expect. While Angela

Merkel is under attack by a very vocal opposition, she will remain in power. The SPD will have no other choice than to join the CDU/CSU in another grand coalition. Although many people want change, after 12 years with Merkel in power, a majority of Germans will not vote for Martin Schulz37. He is too brash and does not have a reputation or a resumé in domestic politics. The AFD seems to be losing momentum. They are losing

11 Joshua Glueck ground to Schulz and Merkel in the most recent polls. Merkel’s recent tightening of asylum restrictions was well received by the general public38.

Syrian refugees will be able to integrate more smoothly into German society than the Turkish guest workers since has Germany has learned from its previous mistakes.

Also, the Syrian refugees have a powerful ally in Angela Merkel who has been forced to slightly adjust here policies in regards to granting asylum, but has backed the refugees nevertheless.

Conclusion

While the assimilation of millions of Syrian refugees will require a concerted effort and will be a burden on Germany in the short-term, the German political system will find a healthy middle ground once again. As concluded, the political parties on the far-left and far-right will negate one another. This will allow the grand-coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD to remain in power and maintain stability. In fact, any other combination of like minded democratic political coalitions would strive to achieve the same results.

Economically, the new labor force provides new opportunities for the future and might prevent a major recession in the German economy. The Syrian refugees are a blessing in disguise for Germany.

12 Joshua Glueck

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24 Die Anwerbung türkischer Arbeitnehmer und ihre Folgen. (2014, August 5). Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.bpb.de/internationales/europa/tuerkei/184981/gastarbeit

25 Die Anwerbung türkischer Arbeitnehmer und ihre Folgen. (2014, August 5). Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.bpb.de/internationales/europa/tuerkei/184981/gastarbeit

26 Bartsch, M., Brandt, A., & Steinvorth, D. (2010, September 07). Turkish Immigration to Germany: A Sorry History of Self-Deception and Wasted Opportunities - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ turkish-immigration-to-germany-a-sorry-history-of-self-deception-and-wasted-opportunities- a-716067.html

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27 Solms-Laubach, F. (2015, September 01). Einwanderung: Warum Türken bei der Integration nicht mitspielen - WELT. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from https://www.welt.de/politik/ article3088721/Warum-Tuerken-bei-der-Integration-nicht-mitspielen.html

28 Bartsch, M., Brandt, A., & Steinvorth, D. (2010, September 07). Turkish Immigration to Germany: A Sorry History of Self-Deception and Wasted Opportunities - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ turkish-immigration-to-germany-a-sorry-history-of-self-deception-and-wasted-opportunities- a-716067.html

29 Bartsch, M., Brandt, A., & Steinvorth, D. (2010, September 07). Turkish Immigration to Germany: A Sorry History of Self-Deception and Wasted Opportunities - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ turkish-immigration-to-germany-a-sorry-history-of-self-deception-and-wasted-opportunities- a-716067.html

30 Bartsch, M., Brandt, A., & Steinvorth, D. (2010, September 07). Turkish Immigration to Germany: A Sorry History of Self-Deception and Wasted Opportunities - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ turkish-immigration-to-germany-a-sorry-history-of-self-deception-and-wasted-opportunities- a-716067.html

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34 Eddy, M. (2014, June 30). After Tightening Pensions, Germany Eases Rules for Some. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/business/international/in- reversal-germany-loosens-rules-on-retirement-age.html

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37 Horn, M. (2017, February 26). Erster Umfrage-Dämpfer - Deutsche glauben nicht an Schulz- Wahlsieg. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/martin-schulz/schulz- bams-umfrage-50604796.bild.html

38 GmbH, F. A. (2017, March 12). Sonntagsfrage: AfD fällt auf acht Prozent zurück. Retrieved March 17, 2017, from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/sonntagsfrage-afd-faellt- auf-acht-prozent-zurueck-14920841.html

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