SWP Comments 2005/44, September 2005, 4 Pages

Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Belarus in Self-Imposed Isolation Conflict with Poland and other Neighbors Poses Security Problems for the European Union SWP Comments Rainer Lindner

Belarus exacerbated its self-imposed international isolation during summer 2005. Poland suspended relations in response to the expulsion of Polish diplomats and attacks on members of the Polish minority. Alexander Lukashenko has maneuvered his autocratic system into diplomatic quarantine with verbal invective against Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, and Georgia. Belarus’s neighbors Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have agreed to coordinate their policies toward the country, but the Euro- pean Union still lacks a firm position, partly out of consideration for Russia. At the same time, relations between Belarus and the Russian Federation are also troubled. A conflict of more than merely regional scope is brewing on the Union’s eastern border.

The Lukashenko system has maintained states helped to persuade the Belarussian its absolute grip on power for more than leadership to back down, but in summer ten years by increasing the repression of 2005 Brussels restricted itself to verbal internal opponents, impeding the free criticism. At the same time, the unwieldi- exchange of information, and repeatedly ness of EU foreign policy generates dissatis- criticizing neighboring states. Belarus’s self- faction with Brussels among the govern- imposed isolation within Europe reached ments of Belarus’s European Union neigh- new heights in the summer months of bors. 2005. Communication between Minsk and In fact, the embassies crisis is just one its EU neighbors has to all intents and pur- element of the diplomatic rupture between poses ceased, and Poland has recalled its Minsk and its neighbors. Relationships with ambassador from Minsk. That level of dis- Poland and Lithuania are particularly badly ruption to communication between neigh- affected. The diplomatic crisis and the anti- boring states fosters instability. This is not democratic developments in Belarus led the first serious crisis in relations between the prime ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and the European Union; in 1998 Latvia, and Ukraine to set up a working Lukashenko had expelled EU ambassadors group in September 2005 to coordinate from their residential complex at Drosdy. neighboring states’ activities against the That time coordinated action by member Lukashenko regime. The Community of

SWP Comments 44 September 2005

1 Democratic Choice in the region between members, the PZB is the largest association the Baltic, the Black Sea, and the Caspian of its kind in the country. To date it has Sea, which was set up at the same time at worked primarily for the interests of the the initiative of Georgia and Ukraine, pulls approximately 400,000 Poles living in no punches in its criticism of the regime in Belarus, concentrating especially on Minsk. Lech Kaczyński, a promising Polish education, history, culture, religion, and presidential candidate, has threatened his language. There are currently sixteen Polish neighbor with “even more decisive action.” cultural centers, largely in the western part of the country that belonged to Poland until the end of the eighteenth century Fear of Revolution in Minsk and between the two world wars. The Belarus’s latest round of self-isolation began archaic political culture of today’s Belarus with the “color revolutions” in Georgia and has caused the Union of Poles to undergo the Ukraine. Especially since the transition a process of politicization. When the PZB of power in neighboring Ukraine, the Bela- elected Andzelika Borys as its new leader at russian leadership has reacted even more the end of June it became the target of a sharply than before to any sign of political campaign of persecution led by Prosecutor- criticism at home. Demonstrations—like the General Viktor Sheyman. one on the April 26, 2005, anniversary of It is no secret that these repressive the Chernobyl nuclear disaster—have been measures are motivated by the govern- broken up by force, Ukrainian sympathizers ment’s fear that Grodno could become a of the Belarussian opposition locked up for second Lviv and Borys a new rallying figure days, and potential opposition candidates at least for the Poles. For a long time Minsk for the 2006 presidential elections arrested. had emphasized that the homogeneity of In the eyes of the presidential adminis- Belarussian society set it apart from other tration in Minsk, the danger from abroad post-Soviet societies racked by national and is currently greater than from the still ethnic conflicts, but the events of Grodno structurally weak domestic opposition. tell a different story. The PZB has been mas- Ukrainian students, Lithuanian intellectu- sively prevented from carrying out its work als, and local advocacy groups of the Polish freely and recently split after being forced minority within the country are brand- to accept a new leadership chosen by the marked as the fifth column of NATO and regime. the West. Official statements from Minsk In response to the expulsion of three are still permeated by Cold War rhetoric— Polish diplomats, Poland recalled its am- claiming that groups working in Ukraine, bassador, Tadeusz Pawlak, and expelled Lithuania, and especially Poland want to Belarussian embassy staff. At the Solidar- destabilize Belarus and curry favor as nosc anniversary celebration in Gdansk, lackeys of the United States. The embassies Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski— of the new EU member states have come who has to date only held one official meet- in for particularly harsh criticism, with ing with Lukashenko, in 1996—demanded President Lukashenko repeatedly insulting that the Polish minority’s problems in Bela- their staff as “charlatans.” rus must be resolved in accordance with European standards. Bilateral relations between Poland and Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine Belarus are currently largely restricted to On July 27, 2005, the Belarussian leader- trade. Its volume in 2004 amounted to ship ordered the storming of the offices of $1.2 billion, and Poland is Belarus’s fourth- the Union of Poles in Belarus (PZB) in the largest trading partner. The current crisis western Belarussian city of Grodno and poses a serious threat to these ties. Smooth had several activists arrested. With 30,000 cooperation seems almost impossible, espe-

SWP Comments 44 September 2005

2 cially after Lukashenko accused Poland of and Moscow are coming to a head. Parts of always acting “on orders” from Washing- Russia’s political class see Poland’s attitude ton. to Belarus as one element of a “Western The president in Minsk also suspects crusade” that began in Georgia, moved on Lithuania of involvement in activities to Ukraine, and is now turning its attention designed to topple his regime. Recently to Belarus. One section of the Russian elite he spoke of “numerous bases” that were does indeed stand wholeheartedly behind being set up in “Poland and Lithuania.” Lukashenko, but that does not apply to The West’s plans, he said, went as far as Vladimir Putin. The relationship between contemplating “intervention,” but Belarus Moscow and Minsk is characterized by talk knew how to defend itself. “We have of confederation and the stationing of enough experience and we haven’t for- Russian troops and weapons in Belarus on gotten our history.” Lithuania has again the one side, and a latent crisis of relations become the place of exile for Belarussian on the other. Since July 2005 Russia has had intellectuals, the place of printing of no ambassador in Belarus because of state- opposition newspapers, and the place of ments made by the appointed ambassador, founding of the European Humanist Uni- Dmitry Ayatskov, whose arrival in Minsk versity recently expelled from Minsk. These has been repeatedly announced and post- developments have opened up an unbridge- poned. Before taking up his post, the am- able rift with the regime in Minsk and, as bassador—the former governor of Saratov, with Poland, relations with Lithuania have who held ambitions to succeed Boris Yeltsin more or less been broken off. in 1999—said: “It is very, very difficult to get Since the Orange Revolution, the south- Lukashenko down. ... Of course he has to ern neighbor Ukraine has often been cited realize the main thing: namely, that Russia as a cautionary example. Large parts of the is Russia, Belarus is Belarus, Putin is Putin, Belarussian population have swallowed the and Lukashenko is Lukashenko. And he propaganda that Belarus has to be saved certainly should not get any big ideas that from the “chaos” experienced by Kiev. he has been in office for a long time and Members of the Ukrainian opposition move- somebody else has to run errands for him.” ment Pora have been turned back at the This outburst not only harmed relations border, and Belarussian oppositionists with Belarus, it also caused further damage stopped from traveling to Ukraine. to Russia’s international standing. After In order to suggest that his system is the poor figure that Russia cut during the more advanced than Ukraine, Lukashenko Ukrainian elections, Ayatskov’s remarks also cites debts of $100 million that even caused irritation in Moscow. At the Ukraine has owed Belarus since the early same time the scandal also shows that 1990s for investment goods. Despite his the Russian elites by no means adhere to a own country’s difficult relations with Bela- single line on the Lukashenko regime. The rus, President Viktor Yushchenko has frequency of such critical statements has offered to mediate in the conflict with increased in advance of the election year. Poland. In view of the potential threat Lukashenko sees in the Orange Revolution, this is rather unlikely to lead to success. Deficits in EU Neighborhood Policy EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner declared in August 2005 Russia: Policy in Flux that the Union would use all means at The diplomatic crisis between Belarus and its disposal to promote democracy and Poland provoked by Minsk bears potential pluralism in Belarus, but she also is also for wider regional conflict; in its wake the reserved about the Polish/Baltic/Ukrainian already difficult relations between Warsaw position. Brussels fails to recognize the

SWP Comments 44 September 2005

3 dangers and the threefold risk of crisis that European Union for their mediation during emanate from this conflict. Firstly, during the Orange Revolution. September tensions between the eastern The repertoire of diplomatic protest should for EU member states have been increasing the moment continue to be exploited to the full – day by day. A minor border conflict with for example summoning the Belarussian Poland could lead to escalation at any time. ambassadors in the EU states if the conflict Secondly, the conflict with Belarus deepens drags on and escalates. Economic sanctions the rifts in already difficult Russo-Polish would have severe consequences for relations. Thirdly, tendencies for Warsaw, Belarus. The EU Commission is currently Vilnius, and Riga to drift apart from weighing up such a course of action—tem- Brussels could be reinforced, which would porarily suspending the EU’s Generalized prevent the development of a consensual System of Preferences and the import duty EU neighborhood policy toward Belarus exemptions that go with it—in response and Russia. Ultimately, the economic to neglect of workers’ rights in Belarus.

© Stiftung Wissenschaft und security of Germany and the EU depends Sanctions would, however, not be advisable Politik, 2005 to a large extent on Russian energy supplies if they would harm the weak small and All rights reserved crossing Belarussian territory, and the medium-sized business sector in Belarus.

SWP planned Baltic gas pipeline will not change Continuing involvement of Belarus in Euro- Stiftung Wissenschaft und that in any significant way. pean communication processes. Efforts to build Politik German Institute for a civil society and develop a free media sec- International and tor should be continued. Critical dialogue Security Affairs Recommendations for Action should continue to be sought with those Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 Coordination between the EU and Russia on sections of the Belarussian elites that are 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 neighborhood policy toward Belarus. The EU open to it. The next opportunity for this Fax +49 30 880 07-100 should put the issue of Belarus on its will be offered by the VIIIth Minsk Forum www.swp-berlin.org agenda with Russia. Chairmanship of the on “Germany and Belarus: European Neigh- [email protected] G-8 brings with it for Russia not least bors: Foreign Policy, Economy, Society.” ISSN 1861-1761 the duty to understand its “strength” and “sovereignty” as responsibilities. Germany must assert its special respon- sibility as Poland’s EU neighbor and Russia’s partner in such a policy coordi- nation process. Above all, the bilateral Russo-German summits must be used more intensively than before to address the conflict. Like the Orange Revolution, this conflict again exposes the dramatic need for coordi- nation in the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The European Union’s neighborhood policy in eastern Europe needs to be fine- tuned, drawing on the experience of Poland and Lithuania and agreeing a joint approach. The EU should seriously consider the offer of mediation in dialogue between Warsaw and Minsk made by Ukrainian President Yushchenko in Gdansk. From the Ukrainian perspective this represented a gesture of gratitude to Poland and the

SWP Comments 44 September 2005

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