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Polish-Russian Relations in an Eastern Dimension Context

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Polish-Russian Relations in an Eastern Dimension Context Polish-Russian Relations in an Eastern Dimension Context WILHELM UNGE, MONIKA ZAMARLIK, MARCIN M CZKA, PIOTR FUDAŁA, MATEUSZ TOBICZYK, ŁUKASZ WOJCIESZAK FOI is an assignment-based authority under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology develop- ment, as well as studies for the use of defence and security. The organization employs around 1350 people of whom around 950 are researchers. This makes FOI the largest research institute in Sweden. FOI provides its customers with leading expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security-policy studies and analyses in defence and security, assessment of different types of threats, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT-security an the potential of new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 FOI-R--2008--SE User report Defence Analysis SE-164 90 Stockholm ISSN 1650-1942 June 2006 Wilhelm Unge, Monika Zamarlik, Marcin Mączka, Piotr Fudała, Mateusz Tobiczyk, Łukasz Wojcieszak Polish-Russian Relations in an Eastern Dimension Context FOI-R--2008--SE User report Defence Analysis ISSN 1650-1942 June 2006 Issuing organization Report number, ISRN Report type FOI – Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI-R--2008--SE User report Defence Analysis Research area code SE-164 90 Stockholm 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analyses Month year Project no. June 2006 A 1102, A 1101 Sub area code 11 Policy Support to the Government (Defence) Sub area code 2 Author/s (editor/s) Project manager Bo Ljung, Jan Leijonhielm Wilhelm Unge Monika Zamarlik Approved by Marcin Mączka Jan-Erik Rendahl Piotr Fudała Sponsoring agency Mateusz Tobiczyk Ministry of Defence Łukasz Wojcieszak Scientifically and technically responsible Wilhelm Unge Report title Polish-Russian Relations in an Eastern Dimension Context Abstract Poland’s relations with Russia have to be analyzed in a European and geopolitical context. During its whole existence Poland’s security policy has been dimensioned by its geographical location between Russia and Germany. Poland’s NATO and EU membership are the most important events in Poland’s history ever. Only constructive engagement with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine can create lasting security for Poland in the the East. However, the foundation for good and lasting Polish-Russian relations is the independence of the historically contested lands in between (Belarus and Ukraine). Bilaterally, Polish-Russian relations are asymmetrical and Warsaw can only exert its regional leadership and substantial leverage by working via Brussels (and NATO). However, not all EU and NATO partners are willing to endanger their relations with Russia for the sake of Poland (or Belarus or Ukraine). The relations are further burdened by history and other areas of mutual contacts are highly politicized. A reconciliation process is still badly needed. Cultural relations are the least problematic and could serve as a foundation for improved relations, as could trade, which, however, is highly asymmetrical in volume and structure. Poland’s energy dependence on Russia is heatledy debated and Poland’s energy strategy 2025 foresees a multifaceted approach including the development of nuclear power. Despite its ambition regional Polish-Russian cooperation within the Euroregion Baltic is very unlikely to improve relations on the state level. The politics of the new Polish government (2005) is counter-productive to realizing its goals of a common EU Eastern policy and energy policy. Whereas Russia under Putin is consolidating its society, strengthening its economy and position on the international arena, Poland is doing more or less the opposite; with the effect that Poland’s chances of playing the role of regional leader diminish. Keywords Poland, Russia, Polish-Russian relations, Polish grand strategy, Polish geopolitics, Giedroyc, Mieroszewski, EU, NATO, Eastern Dimension, Belarus, Ukraine, energy dependence, Euroregion Baltic. Further bibliographic information Language English ISSN 1650-1942 Pages 107 p. Price acc. to pricelist 2 Utgivare Rapportnummer, ISRNKlassificering FOI - Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut FOI-R--2008--SE Användarrapport Försvarsanalys Forskningsområde 164 90 Stockholm 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Månad, år Projektnummer Juni 2006 A 1102, A 1101 Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Delområde 2 Författare/redaktör Projektledare Wilhelm Unge Bo Ljung, Jan Leijonhielm Monika Zamarlik Godkänd av Marcin Mączka Jan-Erik Rendahl Piotr Fudała Uppdragsgivare/kundbeteckning Mateusz Tobiczyk Försvarsdepartementet Łukasz Wojcieszak Tekniskt och/eller vetenskapligt ansvarig Wilhelm Unge Rapportens titel Polsk-ryska relationer i ljuset av den Östliga Dimensionen Sammanfattning Polens relationer till Ryssland bör ses i en europeisk och global kontext. Under hela Polens existens har dess säkerhetspolitik dikterats av landets geografiska läge mellan Ryssland och Tyskland. NATO- och EU-medlemskapen är bland de viktigaste händelserna i Polens tusenåriga historia. Endast konstruktiv samverkan med Ryssland, Vitryssland och Ukraina kan skapa varaktig säkehet för Polen i öster. Under århundradena har en dragkamp om territorierna mellan Polen och Ryssland pågått. Förutsättningen för goda polsk-ryska relationer är att Vitryssland och Ukraina är fria och oberoende stater, dvs. att de historiskt omtvistade områdena förvandlas från objekt till subjekt. De bilaterala relationerna är asymmetriska och Polen kan bara utöva ett inflytande och regionalt ledarskap med stöd NATO och EU. Alla partner är dock inte villiga att riskera sina förbindelser med Ryssland för Polens (och Ukrainas och Vitrysslands) skull. Dessutom tyngs de polsk-ryska relationerna av historien och många samverkansområden är kraftigt politiserade. En försoningsprocess behövs i allra högsta grad. De kulturella relationerna är de minst problematiska och skulle kunna utgöra grunden för förbättrade relationer, liksom handel, vilken dock är asymmetrisk i volym och struktur. Polens energiberoende av Ryssland debatteras hett och Polens energistrategi till 2025 förutser en mångfacetterad approach inkl. utveckling av kärnkraft. Trots sin ambition är det mycket osannolikt att det regionala samarbetet inom Euroregion Baltic förbättrar relationerna på statlig nivå. Den nya polska regeringens (2005) politik är kontraproduktiv och minskar Warszawas chanser att realisera Polens ambitioner avseende en EU-gemensam östpolitik och energipolitik. Sammantaget gör detta att Ryssland under Putin konsoliderar samhället, stärker landets ekonomi och position på den internationella arenan medan Polen gör det motsatta. Effekten är att Polens möjlighet att utöva ett regionalt ledarskap minskar. Nyckelord Polen, Ryssland, polsk-ryska relationer, polsk grand strategy, polsk geopolitik, Giedroyc, Mieroszewski, EU, NATO, Östliga Dimensionen, Vitryssland, Ukraina, energiberoende, Euroregion Baltic. Övriga bibliografiska uppgifter Språk Engelska ISSN 1650-1942 Antal sidor: 107 s. Distribution enligt missiv Pris: Enligt prislista 3 4 Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................5 Foreword ..............................................................................................................................................7 Acknowledgements..............................................................................................................................9 Introduction........................................................................................................................................10 Background ....................................................................................................................................10 Earlier publications by FOI...........................................................................................................11 Earlier publications by ISS ............................................................................................................12 The study's objective ......................................................................................................................12 Intended audiences.........................................................................................................................13 About the report .............................................................................................................................13 Chapter 1. Poland's Grand Strategy Dilemma and the Giedroyc-Mieroszewski Doctrine – A Point of Departure............................................................................................................................................15 Chapter 2. Bilateral Polish-Russian Relations – How To Proceed? ..................................................22 2004-2005 – Virulent polemics and actions of a bad neighbour...................................................22 The problems of Polish-Russian relations .....................................................................................26 The year 2006 – Light at the end of the tunnel? ............................................................................29 Chapter 3. Polish-Russian Cultural Relations....................................................................................32 Chapter 4. Polish-Russian Trade Relations........................................................................................38
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