SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Hannes Adomeit / Anders Åslund (Eds.) Russia versus the United States and Europe—or “Strategic Triangle”? Developments in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy, Western Responses, and Prospects for Policy Coordination October 2005 Berlin © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2005 All rights reserved SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org
[email protected] Table of Contents 5 Introduction Russian Domestic Politics 13 Russia on the Eve of Regime Change Nikolay Petrov 2 1 The Logic of Backsliding Lilia Shevtsova 29 Centralization Is Central Eberhard Schneider 35 Western Theories: What Is Their Explanatory Value? Hans-Joachim Spanger Russian, US, and European Interaction on Post-Soviet Territory 43 Ukraine: Implications and Repercussions of the Orange Revolution Anders Åslund 48 Belarus: Coping with the Effects of Color “Revolutions” Rainer Lindner 53 The Caucasus: Coping with the Complexities of Conflict Jörg Himmelreich 59 Central Asia: A New “Great Game”? Uwe Halbach Energy and Its “Strategic” Significance 65 US–Russia Energy Dialogue: Policy, Projects, or Photo Op? Edward C. Chow 73 Russia and the Energy Supply of Europe Roland Götz How Should We Deal with Russia? 8 1 Interests versus Interests in US Policy towards Russia Andrew C. Kuchins 85 The Specific Character of EU–Russia Relations Katrin Bastian / Rolf Schuette 90 Prospects for Coordination of Western Policies Heinrich Vogel 95 Abbreviations Introduction Introduction Russia’s domestic and foreign policies have again become a matter of concern in both Europe and the United States.