Political Climate Report
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CONTACT INFORMATION POLITICAL & REGULATORY RISKS Juan Cruz Díaz [email protected] [email protected] www.cefeidas.com REPORT Megan Cook +54 (11) 5238 0991 (ARG) [email protected] +1 (646) 233 3204 (USA) Katrina Cohen Cosentino [email protected] Political Climate Report - ARGENTINA March 11, 2021 POLITICAL CLIMATE CLIMATE POLITICAL IN THIS ISSUE After a relatively quiet start to 2021, with the COVID-19 vaccination Page 3 Argentina extends social distancing, campaign underway, February saw the government face its largest reopens schools political crisis to date—a vaccination scandal that prompted the Page 4 resignation of the national health minister. Meanwhile, Argentina Electoral year incentives color political scenario, set up divisive elections remains under social distancing conditions but in-person classes Page 6 were reinstated throughout the country. President Alberto President Fernández starts 2021 Fernández gave an almost two-hour opening speech as the ordinary with busy international agenda sessions in Congress began, outlining priorities for the year, which Page 7 include fighting inflation, promoting economic activation and YPF successfully restructures debt, approves new president advancing a controversial judicial reform. This year Argentina will hold national midterm legislative elections, and the electoral tone is Page 8 Extraordinary sessions yield already beginning to color political discourse and shape political several laws, controversial bills positioning, increasing polarization. On the international front, the remain stalled government has been active focusing on shoring up support for its ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Government roiled by VIP vaccination scandal, struggles to respond After a relatively quiet start to 2021, February saw the government face its largest political challenge to date—a vaccination scandal that prompted the resignation of the national health minister. On February 19, Argentina’s national Health Minister Ginés González García resigned following a request from President Alberto Fernández due to growing outrage about the vaccination of political figures not currently included in the COVID-19 vaccination priority groups. In the preceding days, national and local media began to report several cases of national, provincial and municipal leaders that were not part of the prioritized groups for vaccination (focused on healthcare workers, and elderly individuals and teachers in some districts) receiving vaccines. The list also included national legislators, public officials and union leaders close to the government. This crisis peaked on February 19 when Horacio Verbitsky, a partisan journalist known to be close to the governing coalition, announced in a radio interview that he was vaccinated in a special room in the Ministry of Health after speaking with González García. The episode quickly escalated in the national media into the “VIP Vaccination” scandal and undermined the last legitimacy of the minister, who had faced numerous criticisms for his handling of the COVID-19 crisis and vaccination campaign. In the days following Verbitsky's admission and the minister’s resignation, reports continued to emerge about new individuals in public office or otherwise with political ties who had received the vaccination. In response, the opposition Juntos por el Cambio coalition requested that a detailed explanation be given to Congress, criminal complaints have been filed against the Find more about our services Follow @CefeidasGroup former Health Minister for alleged breach population. For example, Fernández of duties, and demonstrations occurred commented during a press conference that outside of the Casa Rosada in Buenos Argentine law does not recognize cutting a ARGENTINA – Aires and in other cities across the country line as a crime, a criticism of what he on February 27. argued were politicized efforts from the PCR PCR opposition, which filed a criminal complaint Analysis against the former health minister. Although he added that the issue should Almost immediately, Secretary of Health be treated seriously and that those Access Carla Vizzotti was named as involved should resign as they do not have González García’s replacement at the head his support, the comment was seen as of the Health Ministry, and was sworn in somewhat missing the point of what by President Alberto Fernández on had generated public outrage, which February 20. Vizzotti in recent months was not that a crime had been had served as a virtual vice minister committed but rather that certain of health, and often served as the privileged individuals had put their public face of the national own interests above those of the rest government’s pandemic response of the country. efforts. Since the scandal exploded, the government has made several In this sense, the scandal has efforts aimed at diminishing its undermined the credibility of the impact. First, it released a list of 70 government, which came into office individuals who had been vaccinated by with the promise of being “different”, personnel from a national hospital, which both from the previous Macri included political figures and officials, administration, which it has tied to businessmen, and journalists. Second, the “elite rule” by calling for an end to new minister spearheaded the creation of privileges and solidarity, as well as a monitoring and tracking system for those the corruption associated with the vaccinated against COVID-19, and, finally, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) the ministry published guidelines for administration. The incident symbolizes defining “strategic personnel” in the the wear down of the government’s government and allowing them to access political capital in recent months. After vaccines. seeing its popularity peak last year following the initial implementation of its The “VIP Vaccination Scandal” has COVID-19 response, the president’s seriously hit the government, which approval rating fell to about 40 percent, has struggled to respond and mitigate where it has been hovering since August the political and reputational damage (see here for background). While polls it has generated. On the one hand, the suggest that the incident has not national government has tried to deflect affected voting intention among the criticism by framing the matter as a government’s most committed voters, relatively isolated incident that involved a they suggest that the incident and limited number of individuals. It has also difficult economic situation are having implemented the measures noted above. a stronger impact among potential However, the government has failed swing voters. It is still early in the to provide a strong and convincing electoral year, but the government response. While President Fernández and will need to show better organization Cabinet Chief Santiago Cafiero have and advance quickly with the emphasized that the health minister was vaccination campaign, which is part of quickly fired, despite his personal its electoral and economic reactivation relationship with the president, the strategy (see here for background). president’s response has failed to mirror the outrage felt among much of the 2 While the “VIP vaccination” is the first vaccines allocated to Argentina through major political crisis for the the WHO’s Covax program. government, it evidenced the ongoing ARGENTINA – challenges in terms of coordination Argentina extends social distancing, and management (see here for reopens schools PCR PCR background). While the scandal involves New COVID-19 cases in Argentina have fallen since the vaccination of a wide range of reaching a peak in early January. In the last 24 individuals, many for purely political or hours, Argentina recorded 7,693 new confirmed relational criteria, part of the criticism has COVID-19 cases and 107 registered deaths, focused on lack of transparency and clarity bringing the country’s total to more than 2.1 million cases and 53,359 deaths. After having previously in the criteria for giving vaccines to extended social distancing measures through all of “strategic” individuals in the government February, on February 28, Argentina’s national (e.g. why officials in various ministries and government extended the COVID-19 social at different hierarchical levels were distancing restrictions through March 12 across the country. This means that economic, commercial and vaccinated). In this sense, the issue industrial activities are allowed to occur with has exposed the mismanagement and approved protocols, although restrictions remain in failure to coordinate exhibited place on the size of social gatherings in indoor consistently by the government, as spaces and on outdoor cultural events, among others. Further, public transport in the Buenos Aires part of the issue could have been metropolitan area remains restricted to essential avoided by clearly defining and workers and other authorized groups (such as stronger management of vaccination teachers and students). Provincial governments are efforts (although it should be noted that empowered to implement circulation restrictions as they deem necessary, based on local many local governments as well as epidemiological conditions. national government have been implicated in scandals related to improper awarding Schools and other educational institutions have of vaccines). been allowed to resume activities in line with national guidelines and local government approval. By mid-March, almost all provinces will have While