City Net Zero Profile: Concepción
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City Net Zero Profile: Concepción With a metropolitan population of 1 million, Concepción is the 3rd largest city in Chile. It is the 63rd largest in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean, and the 454th largest city globally.1 Core City Population 220,000 Wider Metropolitan Area Population 1,000,000 This snapshot examines Concepción potential to accelerate towards ‘net zero’. It assesses: 1. How enabling is the city’s current endowment to decarbonise (inherited assets). 2. Ambition and strategy for a low carbon future. 3. Span of powers and influence to accelerate decarbonisation initiatives. 4. The platforms and projects underway that can support a lower carbon future. 5. The investment and business innovation environment to promote decarbonisation. These 5 dimensions are explored in the summary statements below. Summary and key findings By global and regional standards, Concepción is: A Net Zero Reformist: Moderate systems and assets to build off, but new developments Assets and agreements in the short- and mid-term that provide immediate opportunities to reform infrastructure and accelerate to net zero. Net Zero Constrained. Absence of overarching ambition and fragmentation of existing Ambition strategies means a more limited ability to convene stakeholders. Net Zero Functional: Some roles and responsibilities to pick up the pace of Powers decarbonisation. Net Zero Purposeful. Currently initiating a number of projects that can be leveraged for Projects faster Net Zero with the right contributions. Net Zero Cushioned: Established relationships with multilateral development banks but Innovation limited alternative pathways to investment and innovation so far. Figure 1: Concepción’s position within an emerging net zero typology *Based on initial data. Scores subject to change contingent on final checks and weightings. **Peer average refers to average among all measured cities in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean, except for projects and platforms, where it refers to average among the 6 Chilean and Colombian cities. Full list of indicators for each theme provided in Appendix. Aggregate scores calculated using an ELO algorithm. Figure 2: The main challenges facing Concepción in the journey to net zero *Based on a combination of external comparative data and level of urgency as identified in current strategies and plans and/or by industry practitioners during interviews carried out in early 2021. Based on the comparative data and observed insights from strategies and practitioners, among the key priority areas for Concepción to accelerate towards net zero appear to be: 1. Decarbonisation of oil refinery operations and the decommissioning of thermoelectric power plants to shift away from reliance on fossil fuels 2. Creation of an integrated ownership structure for existing transport systems, in order to encourage more equal regional coverage of bike lanes and accelerate electrification efforts 3. Creation of a territorial cross-sector urban development plan that provides a basis for convening and steering efforts to re-engineer the built environment and accelerate densification Given these imperatives, the UK contribution has the potential to be most salient in the energy and transport sectors, especially in terms of: 1. Market design, systems engineering and policy expertise on how to decarbonise the electricity grid, unlock efficient district heating systems and take the opportunity to lead the charge towards a more horizontal, output-based energy system 2. Assistance with the development of integrated renewable energy and urban development plans 3. Expertise on target setting, carbon footprinting and land use monitoring in order to accelerate densification, shift behaviour patterns and protect carbon sinks 2 How well set up is Concepción to go net zero? Table 1: Concepción’s aggregate scores in terms of current endowment to shift to net zero Score relative to Latin Rank among Latin American Latin American America Latin American leader laggard leader* cities (max = 1) Track record of compact development 0.56 Guayaquil Tijuana 42nd / 51 Grande Sao Transport systems efficiency 0.73 Santiago 19th / 52 Luis Toluca de Urban canopy coverage and protection 0.55 Tijuana 16th / 26 Lerdo *Among all measured cities in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean. All indicators featured in each of the 3 main sub themes detailed in Appendix. Aggregate scores and ranks calculated using an ELO algorithm. Concepción is distinctive among Chilean cities in that it has a more diversified economy. The expansion of the city and its neighbouring local governments – together known as Gran Concepción – has been fuelled by multiple sectors, including diverse clusters of services and industries. This means that compared to other cities, Concepción’s path to net zero depends both on the modernisation of the complex systems underpinning whole-city urbanisation, and on incentives to transform the operations of key industries. Gran Concepción’s transport systems are carbon intensive, yet there are solid foundations to build on. On one hand, the city inherits a more widespread and more efficient public transport system than many other Chilean cities. There is a commuter rail system – BIOTREN – and the proportion of non-car journeys is higher than elsewhere. On the other hand, the public transport system is still highly reliant on fossil fuels, due to high uptake of buses and mini-buses, and the fragmentation of private sector providers makes transformation challenging. Despite recent growth, the cycling mode split is still only 2% and bike infrastructure among the metropolitan municipalities is uneven.2 Efforts to electrify and integrate the transport system can be a big driver of progress in the next decade. The overhaul of Gran Concepción’s waste management system and practice of private residential woodburning is a big opportunity. The city’s recycling rate remains low and landfill remains the main means of waste disposal.3 The flaws of this system have become more visible in recent years and are starting to impact the sustainability of the region’s wetlands and lagoons, that up to now have played a valuable role in carbon sequestration. Recent years have seen the declaration of several environmental emergencies due to serious air pollution, primarily resulting from the pervasive residential use of firewood and the impact of industrial activities.4 These issues have helped to raise environmental awareness in Concepción, both among citizens and policy makers, providing momentum to unlock efforts that can contribute to decarbonisation. Re-engineering Gran Concepción’s built environment also poses a challenge. The city has been sprawling more rapidly than most in recent decades, growing its built-up area footprint by about 0.5% each year.5 Inherited population density is also lower than the Latin American average, which increases the urgency of decarbonising the region’s transport system.6 Up to now, Concepción has not led the adoption of renewable energies and practices to improve the energy efficiency of residential buildings and industrial facilities. Although much of Gran Concepción´s energy consumption is supported by hydropower, and investment in wind energy is growing, the metropolitan area also hosts multiple coal-fired power plants that are critical to the operations of the interconnected national system that provides electricity to the vast majority of Chile’s population. There are four coal fired thermoelectrical plants, as well as power plants running on natural gas and biomass, one of which is partially dedicated to support all the operations of Bío Bío Refinery. Optimising the carbon effects of the country’s main steel plant, and important logistics functions, is also a priority. 3 The deployment of the region’s knowledge base to pursue decarbonisation of high energy consumption industries is important. Current reliance on power plants remains a complex challenge, but also an opportunity – highlighting the potential role of the city as a hub of Chile’s clean energy revolution. Similarly, the city’s multiple universities and highly developed educational cluster can be supported to raise awareness and research to advance a more comprehensive decarbonisation agenda. The recently launched Microred project, launched on behalf of UCSC, can help to demonstrate the region’s potential for clean energy, while efforts are also ongoing to explore green hydrogen as a catalyst.7 A key challenge for the next cycle will be how to coordinate the numerous cross-sectoral policies currently underway and how to create and convene around a metropolitan-level integrated plan. Table 2: Concepción’s performance versus Latin American cities across key net zero endowment metrics Average Concepción among Latin Latin American Latin American Rank performance American leader laggard cities* 18,300 / sq. Core urban area density8 4,600 / sq. km 6,100 / sq. km 1,000 / sq. km 36th / 60 km (San Juan) Track record of (Bogotá) compact development Built-up area expansion rate, +7% +8% +1.2% +83.8% 46th / 66 2000-20159 (Kingston) (Toluca de Lerdo) % of people living within 34% 24% 60% 4% 10th / 49 10 (Bogotá) (Valencia) Transport 100m of car-free zones systems efficiency % of people living within walking distance of 56% 49% 86% 12% 20th / 49 (Grande Vitoria) (La Laguna) education/medical facilities11 Urban canopy coverage as 65% 26% 82% 0% 2nd / 23 12 (Santa Marta) (Ciudad Juárez) Urban forestry share of metropolitan area coverage and Change in urban canopy protection