Bracknell and Wokingham Flight Path Analysis Report April 2016

HEATHROW COMMUNITY NOISE FORUM

Bracknell and Wokingham flight path analysis report April 2016

1. Executive summary 2. Introduction 3. Evolution of traffic from 2011 to 2016 4. Easterly departures 5. Westerly departures 6. Easterly arrivals

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 3 Executive summary As part of the engagement between Heathrow Airport Limited and the Heathrow Community Noise Forum, flight paths through a series of penetration gates around the airport have been analysed. One of these gates extended approximately 28km from Camberley in the south to north of Marlow in the north. Following the publication and discussion of a draft report describing this gate, a request was made for a more focused analysis on the southern half of the gate, centred on Bracknell to the east and Wokingham to the west, and extending 5.5km to the north and south, 11km extent in total. In addition, as time has passed since the additional analysis and more data are now available, the analysis period has been amended to cover the period 1 January 2011 to 29 February 2016 to ensure the results are as current and relevant as possible. This report describes the analysis and associated conclusions relating to this Bracknell and Wokingham gate. During the analysis period, for departures the gate operated in the westerly direction on average for between 60% and 70% of the time, operated in the easterly direction on average between 20% and 30% of the time and has a mixture of westerly and easterly operations for approximately 10% of the time. For arrivals, the gate operated in the westerly direction between approximately 50% and 60% of the time and on easterlies between 25% and 30% of the time. For the remainder of the time, the gate was either not crossed by arrival traffic (10% to 15% of the time) or operated in a mix of directions. The volume of traffic crossing the gate on easterly operations is approximately three times the volume crossing on westerly operations, typically 300 flights per day as opposed to 100 flights per day.

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 4 Executive summary For easterly departures, the Bracknell and Wokingham gate is crossed by traffic using the easterly Compton (CPT) standard instrument departure route (SID). The volume of the easterly daily departure traffic has a cyclical pattern with higher levels in summer than in winter. The average daily departure traffic through the gate on easterly days has increased from 75 flights per easterly day in 2011 to 108 flights per day in 2015. During the first two months of 2016, the average volume was 93 flights per easterly day. As only winter data is available for 2016, this does not necessarily imply a downwards trend in traffic volume. The lateral centre of gravity (mean position) of the easterly departure traffic swath has shifted north from 500m to the right of gate centre to 2500m to the right of gate centre. This occurred mainly as a step change in mid-2014 due to realignment of the CPT SID. There is no trend on the height of the vertical centre of gravity of the easterly departure traffic, which has remained consistent at approximately 9500 feet from 2011 to 2016, although there is day-to-day variation above and below this average. The average daily minimum height for easterly departures shows an upwards trend from 2011 to 2016 from 6000 feet to just over 7000 feet. The proportion of large aircraft in the easterly departure mix increased from 71% in 2011 to 78% in 2015 and 77% in 2016. A380s currently make up 2% of the total. The proportion of ultra long and long-haul destinations served by this easterly departure traffic has remained consistent from 2011 to 2016 at approximately 77% of the total. Easterly departures are distributed across the day with a broad peak occurring between 10:00 hours and 14:00 hours with lower levels at other times. The peak level increased from 2014 to 2015.

Executive summary For westerly departures, the Bracknell and Wokingham gate is crossed by the CPT and Southampton (SAM) SIDs travelling west. Crossings mainly occur at the northern end of the gate with a lower intensity of traffic across the remainder of the gate. The volume of daily westerly departure traffic is cyclical, with higher volume in summer than winter. The average daily westerly departure traffic on westerly days has remained more or less constant. The volume was approximately 83 flights per westerly day in 2011 and was 87 flights per westerly day in 2015. The average so far for 2016 is 76 westerly departures per westerly day noting that this is winter traffic and volumes are typically lower in winter than summer. The average lateral centre of gravity of the westerly departure traffic shifted south from 3500m to the right of gate centre to a point 2500m to the right of gate centre during the trials but returned to its original positon after the trials finished. The trials resulted in traffic being concentrated in swaths at 3500m to the right (north) and 3000m and 5500m to the left (south) sides of gate centre in addition to the normal swath at 4900m to the right (north) of gate centre. There appears to have been a slight shift in the lateral centre of gravity towards the south in late 2015. There is no trend on the height of the vertical centre of gravity of the westerly departure traffic, which has remained consistent at approximately 7500 feet from 2011 to 2016. However, there is considerable day-to-day variation and a cyclical pattern with departures higher in winter than in summer. The average minimum daily height for westerly departures is consistent at approximately 5000 feet but with day-to-day variations from 4000 feet to 6000 feet. There is evidence of a cyclical pattern in the minimum height: higher in winter than summer; particularly in 2013 and 2014. A number of flights are observed, particularly in 2011 and 2012, at very low heights of order 2000 feet to 3000 feet. These are generally technical flights to calibrate the Airport’s landing systems.

Executive summary The proportion of large aircraft in the westerly departure mix has increased from 53% in 2011 to 61% in 2015 and 60% in 2016: A380s are currently 2% of the total. The proportion of ultra-long haul traffic in the mix has increased from 9% to 14%, short-haul has remained constant at 42% and long haul has decreased from 47% to 44% between 2011 and 2016, indicating a switch from long haul to ultra-long haul destinations. There is a broad peak in westerly departure traffic crossing the gate extending from 09:00 to 20:00 hours with lower levels from 06:00 to 09:00 and 20:00 to 23:30 hours. There are two streams of easterly arrivals traffic crossing the gate. In the southern half of the gate, traffic flows west from the Ockham and Biggin stacks to loop round to approach the easterly runways. In the northern half of the gate, traffic flows east to approach the runways. Some flights will cross the gate twice, flowing west across the gate in the south then looping round to cross the gate in the north travelling east. The daily volume of easterly arrival traffic crossing the gate on easterly days is decreasing, although there is considerable day-to-day variation. The average easterly arrival traffic through the gate has decreased from 2011 at 188 flights per easterly day to 175 flights per easterly day in 2015. The lower figure of 137 flights per easterly day observed for the first two months in 2016 only covers the two lowest volume winter months so it is not necessarily representative of the whole year. The volume also shows the cyclical summer:winter pattern, higher in summer than in winter. The average lateral centre of gravity of the northerly easterly arrivals stream, flowing east to the runways, is approximately 4000m right of gate centre. The lateral centre of gravity of the southerly stream is approximately 3500m to the left of gate centre. Both of these centres of gravity have remained stationary from 2011 to 2016

7 © PA Knowledge Limited 2014

Executive summary The average vertical centre of gravity of the northerly easterly arrival stream is at approximately 4000 feet. The vertical centre of gravity of the southerly stream is approximately 5500 feet. Both vertical centres of gravity have remained consistent from 2011 to 2016 with no trend upwards or downwards. The average minimum height for the northerly easterly arrivals stream is very consistent at 3000 feet with little day-to-day variation. The average minimum height for the southerly arrivals stream is 4000 feet but with some day-to-day variation. The proportion of large aircraft in the easterly arrivals mix has increased from 36% in 2011 to 42% in 2015 and 48% in 2016, with A380s making up 3% of the total. The proportion of ultra long and long-haul origins served by easterly arrivals traffic has increased from 36% in 2011 to 38% in 2015 and to 46% in 2016. Easterly arrivals traffic volume is uniform from 06:00 to 21:30 hours with lower levels from 04:30 to 06:00 and after 21:30 hours. The early morning traffic comprises a high proportion of large aircraft. Westerly arrival traffic crosses the gate flowing east to join the Ockham stack and is of low volume. This traffic crosses at the extreme southern end of the gate and is typically around two flights per day but with a high proportion of days with four to six flights per day and the occasional day with up to ten flights. The overall average daily arrival traffic through the gate on westerly days has remained more or less constant from 2011 to 2016 at approximately 2.5 westerly arrivals per westerly day. The average lateral centre of gravity of the westerly arrival traffic is approximately 3500m to the left of gate centre although there is large scatter from day-to-day likely due to the small number of westerly arrival crossing the gate. The vertical centre of gravity for westerly arrival traffic is at approximately 11000 feet, again with large day-to-day scatter. Some very low flights are observed in 2011: these are technical flights used to calibrate the Airport’s landing systems. The average daily minimum height for westerly arrivals is slightly above 10000 feet but with considerable day-to-day variation. The flights below 3000 feet are generally technical flights used to calibrate the airport’s landing systems. Because of the low volume of westerly arrivals crossing the gate detailed analysis has not been performed.

8 © PA Knowledge Limited 2014

INTRODUCTION 2

Bracknell and Wokingham gate location and extent

Example of easterly departure traffic crossing the Bracknell and Wokingham gate

Example of easterly arrival traffic crossing the Bracknell and Wokingham gate

OCK & BIG stack traffic

Ockham stack

Example of westerly departure traffic crossing the Bracknell and Wokingham gate

Westerly arrival traffic crosses the gate, travelling east to enter the OCK stack

Example of westerly arrival traffic crossing the Bracknell and Wokingham gate

OCK stack traffic

Ockham stack

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 14 Introduction... The analysis has investigated different characteristics of the traffic traversing the gate from the start of 2011 to February 2016 • The proportion of days per year when the gate has westerly, easterly and mixed operations • Traffic volume (number of flights) crossing the gate: • for each day • the average daily traffic for each year • the average distribution of traffic across the day in half-hour intervals by aircraft type • The lateral and vertical distributions of the traffic crossing the gate for each year, including: • The lateral and vertical centres of gravity (average positions) of the traffic swaths • The minimum height at which the lowest aircraft crosses the gate each day • The number of flights crossing the gate below 1500 feet and between 2000 feet and 2500 feet per day • Gate penetration (scatter) plots showing the lateral and vertical position that each flight crosses the gate for each of the years analysed • Heat maps showing the concentration or density of the traffic crossing the gate • The aircraft fleet mix: • the relative proportions of A380, heavy and medium sized aircraft crossing the gate for each year analysed • gate penetration (scatter) plots for A380, heavy and medium sized aircraft showing the lateral and vertical position that each flight crosses the gate for each of the years analysed • The mix of destinations – short-haul, medium-haul, long-haul and ultra long-haul – for the traffic crossing the gate for each year

Daily traffic volume crossing the Bracknell and Wokingham gate from 1 January 2011 to 1 March 2016

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 17 Evolution of traffic – westerly-easterly split... The gate operates on westerlies for between 60% and 70% of days for departures and between 50% and 60% of days for arrivals

Bracknell & Wokingham - direction of departure operations Bracknell & Wokingham - direction of arrival operations

West Mixed East No traffic West Mixed East No traffic

100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40%

30% 30%

Proportion of days of Proportion days of Proportion 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Year Westerly operations are defined as days when the airport operates solely in the westerly direction; similarly easterly operations are defined as days when the airport operates solely in an easterly direction. Mixed operations are defined as days when there are operations in both directions. No traffic is defined as days when no aircraft cross the gate The reason for the difference in the west:east mix is likely due to a combination of: • early morning arrivals, following a different alternation pattern to daytime traffic and sometimes have an easterly preference that switches to westerly preference at 06:00 hours. When this switch happens, traffic can arrive on the easterly runways in the early morning and switch to the westerly runways at 06:00 • the higher proportion of no traffic days for (westerly) arrivals than departures, when no arrivals traffic crosses the gate

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 18 Evolution of traffic – easterly departure traffic volumes... The daily volume of easterly departure traffic has increased from 2011 to 2015 and is higher in summer than in winter Volume of easterly departure traffic Daily easterly departure traffic Average daily departure traffic on easterly days 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 100 110 90 100 108 80 90 93 70 91 80 85 60 83 70 50 75 40 60 30 50 Daily flights through the gate through flights Daily 20 1 40 10 30 0 Flights per day average over the year the over average day per Flights 20 10

01/01/2011 01/05/2011 01/07/2011 01/09/2011 01/11/2011 01/01/2012 01/03/2012 01/05/2012 01/07/2012 01/09/2012 01/11/2012 01/01/2013 01/03/2013 01/05/2013 01/07/2013 01/09/2013 01/11/2013 01/01/2014 01/03/2014 01/05/2014 01/07/2014 01/09/2014 01/11/2014 01/01/2015 01/03/2015 01/05/2015 01/07/2015 01/09/2015 01/11/2015 01/01/2016 01/03/2016 01/03/2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Date Year

There is a cyclical pattern on the easterly daily The average daily departure traffic through the gate departure traffic volume with higher levels in on easterly days has increased from 75 flights per summer than in winter. This is superimposed on a easterly day in 2011 to 108 flights per day in 2015. general increase from 2011 to 2015. As only winter During the first two months of 2016, the average data is available for 2016, the cyclical pattern is volume was 93 flights per easterly day. currently at the bottom of the oscillation so does not imply a trend to a decrease in traffic volume.

Note: easterly daily averages are derived from days when the airport is operating in the easterly direction only, e.g. the annual daily average is the total easterly traffic crossing the gate per year divided by the number of easterly days for that year

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 19 Evolution of traffic – westerly departure traffic volumes... The volume of westerly departure traffic does not show any underlying trend but is higher in summer than in winter Volume of westerly departure traffic Daily westerly departure traffic Average daily westerly departure traffic on westerly days 150 150 1 140 2 140 130 130 120 120 110 100 110 90 100 80 90 91 70 80 90 87 60 83 83 70 76 50 40 60 30 50 Daily flights through the gate through flights Daily 20 40 10 30 0

Flights per day average over the year over average day per Flights 20 10

Daily westerly departure traffic is cyclical, having The average daily westerly departure traffic through higher volume in the summer season than the winter the gate on westerly days was approximately 83 season but without any underlying trend flights per westerly day in 2011 and was 87 flights per westerly day in 2015. The average so far for

2016 is 76 westerly departures per westerly day noting that this is winter and volumes are typically lower in winter than summer

Note: westerly daily averages are derived from days when the airport is operating in the westerly direction only, e.g. the annual daily average is the total westerly traffic crossing the gate per year divided by the number of westerly days for that year

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 20 Evolution of traffic – easterly arrival traffic volumes... The daily volume of easterly arrival traffic crossing the gate appears to be showing a general downward trend Volume of easterly arrival traffic

Daily easterly arrival traffic Average daily easterly arrival traffic on easterly days 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 220 240 200 220 180 200 160 180 188 140 185 160 179 175 120 167 140 100 137 80 120 60 100 Daily flights through the gate through flights Daily 40 80 20 60 0 Flights per day average over the year the over average day per Flights 40 20

The daily arrivals traffic crossing the gate on The average easterly arrival traffic through the gate easterly days shows an underlying decreasing has decreased from 2011 at 188 flights per easterly trend (see right hand chart for annual averages). day to 175 flights per easterly day in 2015. However, there is considerable day-to-day variation The lower figure of 137 flights per easterly day above and below the average. There is also a wave observed for the first two months in 2016 only covers pattern modulating the underlying increase that the two lowest volume winter months so it not appears to follow the cyclical summer:winter pattern necessarily representative of the whole year

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 21 Evolution of traffic – westerly arrival traffic volumes... The volume of westerly arrivals traffic is low, averaging around two flights per westerly day Volume of westerly arrival traffic

Daily westerly arrival traffic Average daily westerly arrival traffic on westerly days 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6

5 6

4 5

3 4 2

Daily flights through the gate through flights Daily 3 1 2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4

0 2.3 2.2 Flights per day average over the year the over average day per Flights 1

01/09/2014 01/11/2014 01/01/2015 01/03/2011 01/05/2011 01/07/2011 01/09/2011 01/11/2011 01/01/2012 01/03/2012 01/05/2012 01/07/2012 01/09/2012 01/11/2012 01/01/2013 01/03/2013 01/05/2013 01/07/2013 01/09/2013 01/11/2013 01/01/2014 01/03/2014 01/05/2014 01/07/2014 01/03/2015 01/05/2015 01/07/2015 01/09/2015 01/11/2015 01/01/2016 01/03/2016 01/01/2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Date Year

Daily westerly traffic crosses at the extreme The average daily arrival traffic through the gate on southern end of the gate and is typically around two westerly days has remained more or less constant flights per day but with a high proportion of days from 2011 to 2016 at approximately 2.5 westerly with four to six flights per day and the occasional arrivals per westerly day day with up to ten flights

Because of the low volume of westerly arrivals crossing the gate detailed analysis has not been performed

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 22 Evolution of traffic – centres of gravity for easterly departures... The lateral centre of gravity of the easterly departure swath has shifted by approximately 2km to the north due to realignment of the CPT SID

Approximate centre of gravity of easterly departures

A Bracknell & Wokingham easterly departure daily lateral centre of gravity 5500 4500 3500 D Shift of approx. 2500 D 2km to the north C 1500 500 C

-50001/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 -1500 -2500 -3500 Distance from gate centre (m) centre gate from Distance Centre of gravity before -4500 realignment of SID Centre of gravity after realignment of SID -5500 B Date

The average lateral centre of gravity (CoG) of the Bracknell & Wokingham easterly departure daily vertical centre of gravity easterly departure traffic has shifted from point C, 500m 10000 9000 to the right of gate centre, to point D, 2500m to the right 8000 of gate centre. This occurred mainly as a step change in 7000 mid-2014 due to realignment of the CPT SID 6000 5000 4000

There is no trend on the height of the vertical CoG of (feet) Height 3000 the easterly departure traffic, which has remained 2000 consistent at approximately 9500 feet from 2011 to 1000 0 2016, although there is day-to-day variation above and 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 below this average Date

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 23 Evolution of traffic – centres of gravity for westerly departures... After returning to its pre-trial position after the departure trials, the lateral CoG of the westerly departure swath may be shifting south again

Approximate centre of gravity of westerly departures

A Bracknell & Wokingham westerly departure daily lateral centre of gravity 5500

4500 C 3500 C D 2500 D 1500

500

-50001/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 -1500

-2500

Distance from gate centre (m) centre gate from Distance -3500 Shift due to departure -4500 trials Potential shift in late 2015 -5500 B Date

The average lateral centre of gravity (CoG) of the Bracknell & Wokingham westerly departure daily vertical centre of gravity westerly departure traffic shifted from point C, 3500m to 10000 9000

the right of gate centre, to point D, 2500m to the right of 8000 gate centre during the trials and returned afterwards. 7000 There appears to be a trend for the lateral CoG to shift 6000 5000

to the south in late 2015 4000 Height (feet) Height There is no trend on the height of the vertical CoG of 3000 Cyclical pattern: higher 2000 in winter than in summer the westerly departure traffic, which has remained 1000 consistent at approximately 7500 feet from 2011 to 0 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 2016. However, there is considerable day-to-day Date variation and a cyclical pattern with departures higher in winter than in summer

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 24 Evolution of traffic – centres of gravity for easterly arrivals... Easterly arrivals cross the gate in 2 streams: a northerly stream moving east to the runways and a southerly stream moving west to loop round to approach the airport

Approximate centre of gravity of easterly arrivals

A Bracknell & Wokingham easterly arrival daily lateral centre of gravity 5500 C 4500 C 3500 2500 1500 North stream flying east South stream flying to approach runway west to loop round to 500 approach airport -50001/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 -1500 -2500 -3500 D D (m) centre gate from Distance -4500 -5500 B Date

The average lateral centre of gravity (CoG) of the Bracknell & Wokingham easterly arrival daily vertical centre of gravity 10000 northerly easterly arrivals stream is approximately South stream flying 9000 4000m right of gate centre. The lateral CoG of the west to loop round to 8000 approach airport southerly stream is approximately 3500m to the left of 7000 gate centre. Both CoGs have remained consistent from 6000 5000

2011 to 2016 4000 Height (feet) Height 3000 The average vertical CoG of the northerly easterly 2000 arrivals stream is at approximately 4000 feet. The 1000 North stream flying east to approach runway 0 vertical CoG of the southerly stream is approximately 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 5500 feet. Both vertical CoGs have remained consistent Date from 2011 to 2016 with no trend upwards or downwards

Approximate centre of gravity of westerly arrivals

A Bracknell & Wokingham westerly arrivals daily lateral centre of gravity 5500 4500 3500 2500 1500 500

-50001/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 -1500 -2500 C

C -3500 Distance from gate centre (m) centre gate from Distance -4500 -5500 B Date

The average lateral centre of gravity (CoG) of the Bracknell & Wokingham westerly arrivals daily vertical centre of gravity westerly arrival traffic is approximately 3500m to the left 20000 18000 of gate centre although there is large scatter from day- 16000 to-day likely due to the small number of westerly arrival 14000 flights (on average 2.5 per day) crossing the gate 12000 10000 8000

The vertical CoG for westerly arrival traffic is at (feet) Height 6000 approximately 11000 feet, again with large day-to-day 4000 Calibration flights at low heights scatter. Some very low flights are observed in 2011: 2000 0 these are technical flights used to calibrate the Airport’s 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 landing systems Date

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 26 Evolution of traffic – minimum height for departures... The trend on the minimum height for easterly departures is upwards whereas westerly departures show no trend in minimum height Minimum height for departure traffic Bracknell & Wokingham easterly departure daily minimum height Bracknell & Wokingham westerly departure daily minimum height 10000 10000 9000 9000 Lower in summer than winter 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000

4000 4000 Height (feet) Height Height (feet) Height Minimum height 3000 clustered at around 6000 feet 3000 2000 disappears when CPT SID is 2000 realigned 1000 1000

0 0 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 Date Date

The minimum height for easterly departures shows an The minimum height for westerly departures is upwards trend from 2011 to 2016 from 6000 feet to just consistent at approximately 5000 feet but with day-to- over 7000 feet. Although the trend was upwards before day variations from 4000 feet to 6000 feet. There is the CPT SID was realigned, this change appears to evidence of a cyclical pattern: higher in winter than have reduced the cluster of minimum heights at 6000 summer; particularly in 2013 and 2014 feet implying the air traffic control can now climb CPT The flights at heights of order 2000 feet to 3000 feet are SID departures more quickly than in the past generally calibration flights

Neither easterly nor westerly arrivals show any trend in minimum daily height Minimum height for arrival traffic Bracknell & Wokingham easterly arrival daily minimum height Bracknell & Wokingham westerly arrival daily minimum height 10000 South stream flying 20000 9000 west to loop round to 18000 approach airport 8000 16000 7000 14000 6000 12000 5000 10000

4000 8000

Height (feet) Height Height (feet) Height 3000 6000 2000 North stream flying east 4000 1000 to approach runway 2000 0 0 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 Date Date

The average minimum height for the northerly easterly The average daily minimum height for westerly arrivals arrivals stream is very consistent at 3000 feet with little is slightly above 10000 feet but with considerable day- day-to-day variation. The average minimum height for to-day variation. The flights below 3000 feet are the southerly arrivals stream is consistent at 4000 feet generally technical flights used to calibrate the airport’s but with some day-to-day variation landing systems. Note the difference in vertical scales for the easterly and westerly graphs

10 10

2011 2014

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

0 Bracknell & Wokingham 0 Bracknell & Wokingham

2012 2015

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Swath shifts to right of Bracknell & Wokingham gate (north) as CPT Bracknell & Wokingham SID is realigned 2013 Small data set for 2016 2016

gives poor statistical

significance

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell & Wokingham -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5 -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5

Scatter plots for easterly departures emphasise the shift in position of the CPT SID

Swath shifts to right of gate (north) as CPT SID is realigned There are far fewer flights recorded for 2016 than for other years because the sample only includes two months to the end of February 2016

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 31 Easterly departures – lateral distributions... The horizontal traffic distributions illustrate the movement of the traffic swath and increased traffic to the north of the gate

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2014

Easterly departures Easterly departures

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 0.2 0.2

Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2012 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2015

Easterly departures Easterly departures

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 0.2 0.2 Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham 0.0 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2013 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2016

Easterly departures Easterly departures

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 0.2 0.2

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 32 Easterly departures – vertical distributions... The peak in concentration at 6000 feet reduces and disappears coincident with the realignment of the CPT SID indicating a general increase in height at the gate

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2014

Easterly departures Easterly departures

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

7000 7000 Height Height (feet) Height Height (feet) 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) The peak in traffic density at 6000 feet Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2012 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2015 reduces in 2014 and has disappeared Easterly departures by 2015 Easterly departures 15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

7000 7000 Height Height (feet) 6000 Height (feet) 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet)

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2013 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2016

Easterly departures Easterly departures

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 33 Easterly departures – traffic mix... The proportion of large aircraft in the easterly departure mix increased from 71% in 2011 to 78% in 2015 and 77% in 2016: A380s currently make up 2% of the total

Aircraft mix 2011 Aircraft mix 2014

0% 1%

22% 29% 2_Heavy 1_A380 3_Medium 2_Heavy 4_Light or Small 3_Medium

71% 77%

Aircraft mix 2012 Aircraft mix 2015

0% 0% 1%

22% 27% 2_Heavy 1_A380 3_Medium 2_Heavy 4_Light or Small 3_Medium 4_Light or Small

73% 77%

Aircraft mix 2013 Aircraft mix 2016

0% 0% 2%

23% 28% 1_A380 1_A380 2_Heavy 2_Heavy 3_Medium 3_Medium 4_Light or Small

72% 75%

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 35 Easterly departures – aircraft type scatter plots 2014 to 2016.. Scatter plots show the shift of all aircraft sizes northwards across the gate from 2014 and also highlight the increase in number of A380s in the mix

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 36 Easterly departures – destination mix.. The proportion of ultra long and long-haul destinations served by easterly departure traffic has remained consistent at approximately 77% of the total

Destination mix 2011 Destination mix 2014 Short-haul destinations typically have flight 0% 0% times shorter than three hours 9% 12% Long-haul Long-haul Medium-haul destinations typically have flight Short-haul Short-haul 25% times between three and six hours Ultra-long haul 23% Ultra-long haul Unknown Unknown 66% 65% Long-haul destinations typically have flight times between six and nine hours Ultra long-haul destinations typically have flight times greater than nine hours Destination mix 2012 Destination mix 2015

0% 1% Destinations marked as “unknown” do not

12% 15% have a recognised airport code associated Long-haul Long-haul with the flight in the data used for analysis Short-haul Medium-haul 23% Ultra-long haul Short-haul 22% Unknown Ultra-long haul 65% 62% Unknown 0%

Destination mix 2013 Destination mix 2016

11% 13% Long-haul Long-haul Short-haul Short-haul 26% Ultra-long haul 23% Ultra-long haul Unknown 63% 64%

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 37 Easterly departures – flights by time of day.. The peak in the easterly departure traffic occurs between 10:00 hours and 14:00 hours with lower levels at other times: the peak level increased from 2014 to 2015

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 39 Westerly departures – heat maps... Other than during the trial period, westerly departures occupy a narrow swath to the right edge of the gate with a scatter of lower intensity traffic across the gate

10 10

2011 2014

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height Trial SIDs revert to normal Bracknell & Wokingham pattern after the trials Bracknell & Wokingham 0 finished 0

2012 2015

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell & Wokingham

2013 Small data set for 2016 2016

gives poor statistical

significance

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell & Wokingham -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5 -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 40 Westerly departures – scatter plots... Scatter plots for westerly departures show that traffic is spread across the gate but illustrate the position of the main swath towards the north of the gate

Trial SIDs revert to normal pattern after the trials finished

Main swath

There are far fewer flights recorded for 2016 because the sample only includes two months to the end of February 2016

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 41 Westerly departures – lateral distributions... Westerly departure horizontal traffic distributions show that the traffic intensity in the peak has increased since the trials but was highest in 2012

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2014

Westerly departures Westerly departures

14.0 14.0 13.0 A 13.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 A 9.0 The trials distribute the 9.0 8.0 traffic normally in the 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 peak, A, into the other trial 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 SIDs 4.0

3.0 3.0 Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 2.0 2.0 Bracknell1.0 & Wokingham Bracknell1.0 & Wokingham 0.0 0.0 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2012 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2015 Westerly departures A Westerly departures 14.0 14.0 13.0 13.0 A 12.0 The main peak, A, 12.0 11.0 increases from 2011 to 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 2012 and then decreases 9.0 8.0 to 2013 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0 Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham 0.0 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

The main peak, A, Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2013 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2016 increases after the trials Westerly departures Westerly departures

14.0 but has not yet reached its 14.0 A 13.0 2012 level 13.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 A 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0 Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 42 Westerly departures – vertical distributions... Vertical distributions show that the most likely westerly departure height at the gate is consistent at 6000 feet, although this peak is smaller in the limited 2016 data set

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2014

Westerly departures Westerly departures

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

7000 7000 Height Height (feet) Height Height (feet) 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet)

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2012 Peak indicates that the most Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2015 Westerly departures likely height for westerly Westerly departures 15000 departures crossing the 15000 14000 14000 13000 gate is 6000 feet 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

7000 7000 Height Height (feet) Height Height (feet) 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6000 feet peak is reduced 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) in the 2016 data set but this might be due to the limited Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2013 data available Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2016

Westerly departures Westerly departures

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 43 Westerly departures – traffic mix... The proportion of large aircraft in the westerly departure mix has increased from 53% in 2011 to 61% in 2015 and 60% in 2016: A380s are currently 2% of the total

Aircraft mix 2011 Aircraft mix 2014

0% 0%0%

2_Heavy 1_A380 3_Medium 38% 2_Heavy 47% 4_Light or Small 3_Medium 53% 4_Light or Small 62%

Aircraft mix 2012 Aircraft mix 2015

0% 0% 1%

2_Heavy 1_A380 3_Medium 39% 2_Heavy 44% 4_Light or Small 3_Medium 56% 4_Light or Small 60%

Aircraft mix 2013 Aircraft mix 2016 2% 0% 0% 0%

1_A380 1_A380

43% 2_Heavy 40% 2_Heavy 3_Medium 3_Medium 57% 4_Light or Small 4_Light or Small 58%

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 44 Westerly departures – aircraft type scatter plots 2011 to 2013.. Scatter plots for 2011 to 2013 show the main swath and the broad distribution of traffic across the gate but do not indicate bunching by aircraft size

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 45 Westerly departures – aircraft type scatter plots 2014 to 2016.. Similarly scatter plots for 2014 to 2016 show the main swath and the impact of the trial in 2014 but suggest that A380s are bunched in the main swath

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 46 Westerly departures – destination mix.. The proportion of ultra long haul destinations in the mix has increased from 9% in 2011 to 14% in 2016 as long-haul has been swapped to ultra-long haul

Destination mix 2011 Destination mix 2014 Short-haul destinations typically have flight 2% 0% times shorter than three hours 9% 11% Long-haul Long-haul Medium-haul destinations typically have flight Short-haul Medium-haul times between three and six hours 47% 50% Ultra-long haul Short-haul Unknown Ultra-long haul 42% 39% Long-haul destinations typically have flight Unknown times between six and nine hours

0% Ultra long-haul destinations typically have flight times greater than nine hours Destination mix 2012 Destination mix 2015 1% 0% Destinations marked as “unknown” do not

10% 14% have a recognised airport code associated Long-haul Long-haul with the flight in the data used for analysis Medium-haul Medium-haul 48% 45% Short-haul Short-haul Ultra-long haul Ultra-long haul 41% Unknown 41% Unknown The charts show that the proportion of ultra- long haul has increased from 9% to 14%, 0% 0% shirt-haul has remained constant at 42% and long haul has decreased from 47% to 44% Destination mix 2013 Destination mix 2016 between 2011 and 2016.This implies a switch 0% 0% from long haul to ultra-long haul destinations 12% 14% Long-haul Long-haul Short-haul Short-haul 46% 44% Ultra-long haul Ultra-long haul Unknown Unknown 42% 42%

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 47 Westerly departures – flights by time of day.. There is a broad peak in westerly departure traffic crossing the gate extending from 09:00 to 20:00 hours with lower levels from 06:00 to 09:00 and 20:00 to 23:30 hours

10 10

2011 2014

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height Arrivals stream travelling Bracknell & Wokingham west from OCK & BIG Bracknell & Wokingham 0 stacks to loop round to 0 2012 approach the runways 2015

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Arrivals stream travelling Bracknell & Wokingham east on approach to the Bracknell & Wokingham runways 2013 Small data set for 2016 2016

gives poor statistical

significance

Height (000sfeet)Height (000sfeet)Height

Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell & Wokingham -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5 -5.5 Distance from centre of gate (km) 5.5

There are far fewer flights recorded for 2016 because the sample only includes two months to the end of February 2016

The horizontal traffic distributions are also very similar from 2011 to 2016

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2014

Easterly arrivals Easterly arrivals

5.0 5.0

4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Bracknell & Wokingham Bracknell0.0 & Wokingham 0.0 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 -5500 -4500 -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 Distance from centre of gate (m) Distance from centre of gate (m)

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2012 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2015

Easterly arrivals Easterly arrivals

5.0 5.0

4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2013 The statistics for the 2016 Wokingham, Horizontal distribution, 2016 Easterly arrivals sample are not as good as Easterly arrivals 5.0 5.0 the other years because of

4.0 the small sample size for 4.0 2016 3.0 3.0

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

Flight Flight density(flights perper day 50m) Flight density(flights perper day 50m)

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 52 Easterly arrivals – vertical distributions... Other than for 2014 when the peak at 6000 feet is reduced and 2016 with poor statistics, vertical distributions are consistent

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2011 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2014

Easterly arrivals Easterly arrivals

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 Main peak at 6000 feet 11000 10000 is reduced in intensity 10000 9000 9000 8000 in 2014 compared to 8000

7000 other years 7000 Height Height (feet) 6000 Height (feet) 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet)

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2012 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2015

Easterly arrivals Easterly arrivals

15000 15000 14000 14000 13000 13000 12000 12000 11000 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2013 The statistics for the 2016 Wokingham, Vertical distribution, 2016 Easterly arrivals sample are not as good as Easterly arrivals 15000 15000 14000 the other years because of 14000 13000 13000 12000 the small sample size for 12000 11000 2016 11000 10000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000

7000 7000 Height Height (feet) 6000 Height (feet) 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet) Flight density (flights per day per 100 feet)

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 53 Easterly arrivals – traffic mix... The proportion of large aircraft in the easterly arrivals mix has increased from 36% in 2011 to 42% in 2015 and 48% in 2016, with A380s making up 3% of the total

Aircraft mix 2011 Aircraft mix 2014 1% 0% 0% 1%

1_A380 1_A380 36% 2_Heavy 2_Heavy 40% 3_Medium 3_Medium

4_Light or Small 59% 4_Light or Small 63%

Aircraft mix 2012 Aircraft mix 2015 0% 1% 0% 2%

1_A380 1_A380 38% 2_Heavy 2_Heavy 39% 3_Medium 3_Medium 4_Light or Small 4_Light or Small 61% 59%

Aircraft mix 2013 Aircraft mix 2016

0% 1% 0% 3%

1_A380 1_A380 37% 2_Heavy 2_Heavy 3_Medium 3_Medium 52% 45% 4_Light or Small 4_Light or Small 62%

There does not appear to be any bunching by size of aircraft from 2011 to 2013

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 55 Easterly arrivals – aircraft type scatter plots 2014 to 2016.. There also does not appear to be any bunching by aircraft size from 2013 to 2015: aircraft of all sizes are equally distributed across the two streams

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 56 Easterly arrivals – destination mix.. The proportion of ultra long and long-haul origins served by easterly arrivals traffic has increased from 36% in 2011 to 38% in 2015 and 46% in 2016

Origin mix 2011 Origin mix 2014 Short-haul destinations typically have flight 1% 0% times shorter than three hours 6% 7%

Long-haul Long-haul Medium-haul destinations typically have flight 30% 32% Medium-haul Medium-haul times between three and six hours Short-haul Short-haul Ultra-long haul Ultra-long haul 6% Long-haul destinations typically have flight 57% Unknown 57% Unknown 4% times between six and nine hours Ultra long-haul destinations typically have flight times greater than nine hours Origin mix 2012 Origin mix 2015 1% 2% Destinations marked as “unknown” do not 6% 8% have a recognised airport code associated Long-haul Long-haul 32% 30% with the flight in the data used for analysis Medium-haul Medium-haul Short-haul Short-haul Ultra-long haul Ultra-long haul 56% 5% 4% Unknown 56% Unknown

Origin mix 2013 Origin mix 2016

0% 0%

7% 11%

30% Long-haul Long-haul 35% Medium-haul Medium-haul Short-haul Short-haul Ultra-long haul Ultra-long haul

59% 4% Unknown 51% Unknown 3%

© PA Knowledge Limited 2014 57 Easterly arrivals – flights by time of day.. Easterly arrivals traffic volume is uniform from 06:00 to 21:30 hours with lower levels from 04:30 to 06:00 and after 21:30 hours: heavy traffic peaks in the early morning