Arran Locality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Arran – What the Profile will cover?

• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015

• Population change –from 2012 to 2026

• General health & life expectancy

• Household Incomes

• Education ‐ results at key stages

• Housing –average house prices

• Key strengths and needs Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel

• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5. It was also more likely to be selected as the most important. • In the Arran 45% of respondents selected this aim as one of their top 5 aims. • However a higher proportion of Arran residents (55%) selected “Our young people are successful learners, confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens” as their top aim Percentage of Arran respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 60 55

50 45 45

40 34 34

30

20

10

0 Our young people We live our lives We have strong, We live in well‐ We realise our full are successful safe from crime, resilient and designed, economic potential learners, confident disorder and danger supportive sustainable places with more and individuals, communities where where we are able better effective people take to access the employment contributors and responsibility for amenities and opportunities for responsible citizens their own actions services we need our people and how they affect others Locality Planning workshops

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?

– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

Youth Groups 91.3 0.0

Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0

Cumbrae 43.6 30.8

North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Garnock Valley 60.9 17.3 Positive Neutral Three Towns 53.2 26.6 Overall Kilwinning 70.9 9.3 Negative Irvine 61.2 21.6

Arran 47.9 19.7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000

40,000 39,085

35,000 32,981

30,000

25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000

10,000 4,589 5,000

‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Arran Population Projection 2012‐2026 3,000

2,500

2,000 +15%

0 to 17 1,500 18 to 64 65+

Population ‐47% 1,000

500 ‐32%

0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - Arran

Arran 2012 Arran 2026

Over 0‐17yrs Over 0‐17yrs 65s 65s 16% 14% 32% 49%

52% 37%

Working Age 18‐64yrs Working Age 18‐64yrs

Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -3.6% (from 137,560 to 132,587), while Arran will decrease by 25% (4,624 to 3,468) • Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the Arran locality (up by 15%) - half the North Ayrshire increase of 31% for the same period. • Under 18s in Arran will decrease by a third (-32%) compared with a North Ayrshire decrease of -9% • Working age residents will decline by around one half (-47%) in Arran compared with a decrease of -13% across North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0

78.2 78.0

77.0 77.1 76.5

76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0

74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0

72.0

71.0

70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire

North Scotland Arran Ayrshire 76.6 76.5 80.9 years years years

MALES

North Scotland Arran Ayrshire 83.3 years 81.0 years 80.8 years

FEMALES

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside 92.0 Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran 80.9 Ardrossan North West Largs South Springside and Rural Largs North Arran in Yellow Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland 76.6 Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North 69.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural 89.2 Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Irvine Broomlands Largs North Springside and Rural Irvine Tarryholme Arran in Yellow Arran 83.3 Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 75.5 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education

Household Income Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000

£25,000

£20,000

£15,000

£10,000

£5,000

£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0

30.0 28.7

25.0 22.7

20.0 19.8 20.0 households

17.2 of 15.5 15.0 14.1 13.9 12.2 11.9

Percentage 10.2 10.0 8.8

5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000

200,000 193,000

150,000 (£)

150,000 133,000 126,500

Price 118,000

100,000 92,000 Median 85,000 81,500 75,000 68,750 60,000 50,000

‐

Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0

80.0

60.0 2014

‐ 48.4

2004 40.0

27.6

20.0 Change

%

0.0

‐20.0 Summary

Strengths & Needs ______Summary

Strengths Needs

• Lower negativity in relation to • Overall population decrease of Locality Planning Approach a quarter projected to 2026 • Lowest projected increase in • Largest decline of working age residents aged over 65 (+15%) and school age residents in • Some of the highest life North Ayrshire to 2026 expectancy in North Ayrshire • Highest house prices –less • Strong educational attainment affordability in Lamlash • Rural pockets of lower household incomes Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website