North Coast Locality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership North Coast– What the Profile will cover?

• Priorities from North Coast workshops & People’s Panel 2015 • Population change –from 2012 to 2026 • General health & life expectancy • Employment & Household Incomes • Education – trends for key measures • Housing –average house prices • SIMD 2016 – results for North Coast • Community Safety & Crime • Key strengths and needs Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel

• 2000 North residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in ” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5. It was also most likely to be selected as the most important. • This was the case for both North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the North Coast Locality. • In the North Coast 49% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims and 25% selected it as their most important aim. Percentage of North Coast respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 60 49 50 37 39 40 34 36 30

Percentage 20

10

0 We live our lives Our young people We realise our full Our children have We value and safe from crime, are successful economic the best start in enjoy our built disorder and learners, potential with life and are ready and natural danger confident more and better to succeed environment and individuals, employment protect and effective opportunities for enhance it for contributors and our people future generations responsible citizens Locality Planning workshops

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?

– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

Youth Groups 91.3 0.0

Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0

Cumbrae 43.6 30.8

North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Positive Garnock 60.9 17.3 Neutral Overall Negative Three 53.2 26.6

Kilwinning 70.9 9.3

Irvine 61.2 21.6

Arran 47.9 19.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000

40,000 39,085

35,000 32,981

30,000

25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000

10,000 4,589 5,000

‐ Arran Garnock Irvine North Three Valley Coast Towns North Coast Population Projection 2012‐2026 16,000

14,000 4%

12,000

10,000

32% 0 to 17 8,000 18 to 64

Population 6,000 65+

4,000 2%

2,000

0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fig 1.5 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - North Coast

2012 2026

0‐17yrs Over 16% 0‐17yrs Over 17% 65s 65s 30% 33%

54% 50%

Working Age 18‐64yrs Working Age 18‐64yrs

Source: National Records of , Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -3.6% (from 137,560 to 132,587), while the North Coast will increase by 6.8% (24,742 to 26,426) •Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the North Coast locality (up by 32%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31% • Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by 9% contrasting with the North Coast where there will be a 2% increase • Working age residents will decline by more than 13% across North Ayrshire compared with approximately 4% in the North Coast Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0

78.2 78.0

77.0 77.1 76.5

76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0

74.4 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 73.0

72.0

71.0

70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire

North North Scotland Coast, West Ayrshire Kilbride & 76.6 1 76.5 Cumbrae years 79.7 years years

MALES

North Coast, North Scotland Ayrshire & Cumbrae 1 81.0 years 80.8 years 85.5 years

FEMALES

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant North Coast, West Kilbride & Cumbrae intermediate zones Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside 92.0 and Rural 82.5 Fairlie and Rural 81.8 Arran North West South 80.4 North Coast, Springside and Rural West Kilbride & Largs North 78.9 North West Cumbrae areas North West Kilbride and 78.2 are in Yellow Irvine and Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland 76.6 West Irvine and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae 74.6 Kilbirnie South and Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Irvine Castlepark North 69.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural 89.2 Skelmorlie and Rural 86.0 West Kilbride and Seamill 85.9 Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Irvine Broomlands Largs North 85.0 North Coast, Springside and Rural West Kilbride & Irvine Tarryholme Arran Cumbrae areas Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Dalry East and Rural are in Yellow Kilbirnie North Largs South 82.5 Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae 80.4 Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education

Household Income ‐ North Coast Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000

£25,000

£20,000

£15,000

£10,000

£5,000

£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0

30.0

25.0 23.4 22.7

19.8 20.0 18.8 17.7 households

17.2 of

15.0 14.0 13.9 12.2 12.2

Percentage 10.0 10.2 10.0

5.0 3.9 4.0

0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000

200,000 193,000

150,000 (£)

150,000 133,000 126,500

Price 118,000

100,000 92,000 Median 85,000 81,500 75,000 68,750 60,000 50,000

‐

Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0

80.1 80.0

60.0 2014 53.2

‐ 48.4

2004 40.0

30.4 30.4

20.0 Change

%

0.0

‐5.6

‐20.0 Summary

Strengths & Needs Summary –North Coast

Strengths Needs • Increase in younger age group • Higher proportions of to 2026 residents over 65yrs by 2026 • Smallest decline of all localities • Higher house prices –less for working age residents affordability • Some of the highest life • Higher negativity in relation expectancy in North Ayrshire to Locality Planning Approach • Highest educational attainment in North Ayrshire • Highest household incomes Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website