Garnock Valley Locality Partnership
Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Garnock Valley– What the Profile will cover?
• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015
• Population change –from 2012 to 2026
• General health & life expectancy
• Household Incomes
• Education ‐ results at key stages
• Housing –average house prices
• Key strengths and challenges Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel
• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5 priorities. This was the case for both North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the Garnock Valley Locality. • In the Garnock Valley 47% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims Percentage of Garnock Valley respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 50 47 45 40 40 40 38 35 33 30 25 20 Percentage 15 10 5 0 We live our lives safe Our young people We have strong, We realise our full Our children have from crime, disorder are successful resilient and economic potential the best start in life and danger learners, confident supportive with more and and are ready to individuals, communities where better succeed effective people take employment contributors and responsibility for opportunities for our responsible citizens their own actions people and how they affect others Locality Planning workshops
• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.
• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:
– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?
– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?
– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook
Youth Groups 91.3 0.0
Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0
Cumbrae 43.6 30.8
North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Positive Garnock Valley 60.9 17.3 Neutral Overall Negative Three Towns 53.2 26.6
Kilwinning 70.9 9.3
Irvine 61.2 21.6
Arran 47.9 19.7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000
40,000 39,085
35,000 32,981
30,000
25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000
10,000 4,589 5,000
‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Garnock Valley Population Projection 2012‐
14,000 2026
12,000 ‐16%
10,000
8,000 0 to 17 18 to 64 6,000 25%
Population 65+
4,000
2,000 ‐18%
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change in the distribution of key age groups 2012 and 2026 - Garnock Valley
2012 2026
Over 0‐17yrs 65s 18% 0‐17yrs 19% 20% Over 25% 65s
0‐17 0‐17 18‐64 18‐64 61% 57% 65+ 65+
Working Age Working Age 18‐64yrs 18‐64yrs
Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary
Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -4% • Garnock Valley will decrease -9% (20,500 to 18,700) •Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the Garnock Valley locality (up by 25%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31% • Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by 9% while this group will decrease by -18% in the Garnock Valley • Working age residents will decline by more than -13% across North Ayrshire compared with a -16% fall in the in the Garnock Valley Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0
78.2 78.0
77.0 77.1 76.5
76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0
74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0
72.0
71.0
70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire
North Scotland Garnock Ayrshire 1 Valley 76.6 76.5 74.5 years years years
MALES
Garnock North Scotland Valley1 Ayrshire 80.8 years 81.9 years 81.0 years
FEMALES
Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant Garnock Valley intermediate zones Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside 92.0 Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West Largs South Garnock Valley Springside and Rural Largs North areas are in Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North 78.3 Yellow West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West 76.8 Scotland 76.6 Beith West 76.0 Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural 75.2 Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar 73.8 Dalry East and Rural 73.3 Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North 69.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural 89.2 Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Irvine Broomlands Largs North Garnock Valley Springside and Rural Irvine Tarryholme areas are in Arran Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Yellow Dalry East and Rural 82.9 Kilbirnie North 82.5 Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural 82.1 Dalry West 81.9 Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West 80.0 Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar 78.8 Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education
Household Income – Garnock Valley Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000
£25,000
£20,000
£15,000
£10,000
£5,000
£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0
30.0 26.9
25.0 22.7
19.8 20.0 18.7 households
17.2 of 15.2 14.4 15.0 13.8 13.9 12.2
Percentage 10.2 10.0 9.2
5.0 4.0 1.8
0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015
Summary
Strengths & Challenges Summary – Garnock Valley
Strengths Challenges • Positive attitudes towards • Under 18s projected to decrease introduction of Locality by ‐18% compared with ‐9% for Planning (over 60%) & role of North Ayrshire over next 15 yrs Community Councils • Male life expectancy two years • Second smallest increase for below the Scotland and North population aged 65 years & Ayrshire average over across all six localities. • Lower attainment rates among • Female life expectancy above S5 pupils at SCQF Level 6 North Ayrshire & Scotland (Highers) • Strong house price growth • Some of the lowest household over last 10 years in Kilbirnie & incomes in North Ayrshire Beith Next steps
• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website