Irvine Locality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Irvine ‐ What the Profile will cover

• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015

• Population change –from 2012 to 2026

• Life expectancy

• Household Incomes

• Education ‐ results at key stages

• Housing –average house prices

• Key strengths and challenges Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel

• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5 priorities. This was the case for both North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the Irvine Locality. • In the Irvine Locality 50% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims Percentage of Irvine respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 60

50 50

42 40 37 34 34

30

20

10

0 We live our lives safe Our young people are We realise our full We have strong, resilient Our public services are from crime, disorder and successful learners, economic potential with and supportive high quality, continually danger confident individuals, more and better communities where improving, efficient and effective contributors and employment people take responsibility responsive to local responsible citizens opportunities for our for their own actions and people’s needs people how they affect others Locality Planning workshops

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?

– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1.1 Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

Youth Groups 91.3 0.0

Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0

Cumbrae 43.6 30.8

North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Positive Garnock Valley 60.9 17.3 Neutral Overall Negative Three Towns 53.2 26.6

Kilwinning 70.9 9.3

Irvine 61.2 21.6

Arran 47.9 19.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000

40,000 39,085

35,000 32,981

30,000

25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000

10,000 4,589 5,000

‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Irvine Population Projection 2012‐2026 30,000

‐13% 25,000

20,000 0 to 17 18 to 64 15,000 65+ 35% Population 10,000

5,000 ‐5%

0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - Irvine

Irvine 2012 Irvine 2026

0‐17yrs 0‐17yrs Over Over 65s 17% 65s 21% 24% 21%

62% 55%

Working Age Working Age 18‐64yrs 18‐64yrs

Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -4% • Irvine will decrease -3% •Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the Irvine locality (up by 35%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31% • Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by - 9% while this group will decrease by -5% in Irvine • Working age residents will decline by more than -13% across North Ayrshire, equal to the -13% fall projected for Irvine Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0

78.2 78.0

77.0 77.1 76.5

76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0

74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0

72.0

71.0

70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire

North Scotland Irvine1 Ayrshire 76.6 76.5 72.7 years years years

MALES

North Scotland Irvine 1 Ayrshire 80.7 years 81.0 years 80.8 years

FEMALES

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for twelve Irvine intermediate zones Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West Largs South Irvine areas Springside and Rural 79.9 Largs North are in Yellow Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn 77.8 Dreghorn 77.8 Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland 76.6 Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca 75.6 Ardrossan North East 75.6 Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme 75.3 Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East 72.9 Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill 72.4 Irvine Central 72.2 Ardrossan Central Irvine Broomlands 71.7 Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South 70.0 Irvine Fullarton 69.7 Irvine Castlepark North 69.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural 89.2 Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside Irvine Broomlands 85.1 Largs North Irvine areas Springside and Rural 84.3 Irvine Tarryholme 83.9 are in Yellow Arran Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca 83.3 Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn 81.4 Irvine Central 81.2 Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East 80.1 Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North 78.8 Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill 78.3 Irvine Castlepark South 77.9 Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton 76.8 Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education

Household Income Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000

£25,000

£20,000

£15,000

£10,000

£5,000

£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0

30.0 27.7

25.0 22.7 19.8 20.0 18.7 households

17.2

of 16.1

15.0 13.5 13.9 13.4 12.2

Percentage 10.2 10.0 8.8

5.0 4.0 1.8

0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000

200,000 193,000 (£)

150,000 Price

100,000 92,000 Median 81,500 60,000 50,000

‐

Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0 87.5

80.0

60.0 2014

‐ 48.4 40.5

2004 40.0

20.0 Change

%

0.0

‐20.0 Summary

Strengths & Challenges Summary

Strengths Challenges • Positive responses to Locality • Highest increase of over 65s Planning Approach projected over next 15 years • Stable younger age population • Male life expectancy lower than to 2026 the Scottish average in ten out of • Pockets of above average male twelve neighbourhoods life expectancy in Springside, • Lower attainment rates among Perceton, Lawthorn & Dreghorn S5 pupils at SCQF Level 6 • High female life expectancy in (Highers) Broomlands • Some of the lowest household • Strong educational attainment in incomes in North Ayrshire Girdle Toll & Stanecastle Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website