Kilwinning Locality Partnership
Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Kilwinning ‐ What the Profile will cover
• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015
• Population change –from 2012 to 2026
• Life expectancy
• Household Incomes
• Education ‐ results at key stages
• Housing –average house prices
• Key strengths and challenges Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 ) People’s Panel
• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups. • Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire” • The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5 priorities. This was the case for both North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the Garnock Valley Locality. • In the Kilwinning locality 43% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims Percentage of Kilwinning respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 50 43 45 39 40 35 35 32 31 31 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 We live our lives We realise our Our young Our public Our children have “We have safe from crime, full economic people are services are high the best start in improved the life disorder and potential with successful quality, life and are ready chances for danger more and better learners, continually to succeed children, young employment confident improving, people and opportunities for individuals, efficient and families at risk” our people effective responsive to contributors and local people’s responsible needs citizens Locality Planning workshops
• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.
• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:
– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?
– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?
– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans? Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook
Youth Groups 91.3 0.0
Third Sector Interface 59.5 4.0
Cumbrae 43.6 30.8
North Coast 38.5 36.1 Overall Positive Garnock Valley 60.9 17.3 Neutral Overall Negative Three Towns 53.2 26.6
Kilwinning 70.9 9.3
Irvine 61.2 21.6
Arran 47.9 19.7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population Change Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014 45,000
40,000 39,085
35,000 32,981
30,000
25,000 21,090 21,450 20,000 17,255 15,000
10,000 4,589 5,000
‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Kilwinning Population Projection 2012‐2026 10,000 ‐23% 9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000 0 to 17 5,000 34% 18 to 64 65+
Population 4,000
3,000 ‐12% 2,000
1,000
0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - Kilwinning
Kilwinning Kilwinning 2012 2026 0‐17yrs Over 0‐17yrs 65s 17% Over 21% 21% 25% 65s
62% 54%
Working Age Working Age 18‐64yrs 18‐64yrs
Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population change to 2026 summary
Between 2012 and 2026 the population of: • North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -4% • Kilwinning will decrease -11% •Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in Kilwinning locality (up by 34%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31% • Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by 9% while this group will decrease by -12% in Kilwinning • Working age residents will decline by more than -13% across North Ayrshire compared with a -23% fall in Kilwinning Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0
78.2 78.0
77.0 77.1 76.5
76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0
74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0
72.0
71.0
70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire
North Scotland Kilwinning 1 Ayrshire 76.6 76.5 76.2 years years years
MALES
North Scotland Kilwinning 1 Ayrshire 80.8 years 81.0 years 80.8 years
FEMALES
Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant Kilwinning intermediate zones Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside 92.0 Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West Largs South Kilwinning Springside and Rural Largs North areas are in Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North Yellow West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North 76.9 Dalry West Scotland 76.6 Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn 75.4 Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan 71.0 Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside 85.2 Irvine Broomlands Largs North Kilwinning Springside and Rural Irvine Tarryholme areas are in Arran Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Yellow Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North 81.6 Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn 80.0 Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan 75.5 Saltcoats North East 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Education
Household Income ‐ Kilwinning Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000
£25,000
£20,000
£15,000
£10,000
£5,000
£0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0
30.0 26.1 25.0 22.7 19.8 20.0 18.1 households
17.2 of 15.0 15.5 15.0 13.7 13.9 12.2
Percentage 10.2 10.0 9.3
5.0 4.0 2.2
0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000
200,000 193,000 (£)
150,000 Price
92,000 100,000
Median 85,000
60,000 50,000
‐
Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0
80.0
60.0 2014
‐ 48.4
2004 40.0 31.8
20.0 Change
%
0.0
‐20.0 Summary
Strengths & Needs Summary – Kilwinning
Strengths Challenges • Most positive locality regarding • Higher decrease in population introduction of Locality (‐11%) compared with North Planning (Over 70% positive Ayrshire (‐4%) over next 15 years comments) • Low female life expectancy in • Proportion age 0‐17years Kilwinning West & Blacklands projected to remain stable at 5.5yrs lower than North Ayrshire 21% of overall population by at 75.5 years 2026 • Lower attainment rates among • Highest male life expectancy in S5 pupils at SCQF Level 6 both North Ayrshire & Scotland (Highers) (92yrs in Kilwinning Whitehirst • Some of the lowest household Park) incomes in North Ayrshire Next steps
• Six summary Locality Profiles • Comparator tables across 6 areas • Profiles made available on CPP web pages • Downloadable PDFs on new website