Appendix 1
- TRANSLATED VERSION -
Opinion Report of the Independent Financial Advisor on Tender Offer Of
Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited
Tender Offeror
Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul
Prepared by
I V Global Securities Public Company
June 22, 2021
The English Translation of the Independent Financial Advisor’s Opinion Report has been prepared solely for the convenience of foreign shareholders of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited and should not be relied upon as the definitive and official document.
The Thai language version of the Independent Financial Advisor’s Opinion Report is the definitive and official document and shall prevail in all aspects in the event of any inconsistency with this translation. Table of Content
Page Glossary 1 Executive Summary 3 Part 1 Background of the Transaction 6
Part 2 Opinion of Independent Financial Advisor on the Offer Price 9 2.1 Book Value Approach 9 2.2 Adjusted Book Value Approach 10 2.3 Volume Weighted Average Price Approach: VWAP 13 2.4 Market Comparable Approach 15 2.5 Discounted Cash Flow Approach: DCF 20 2.6 Summary of Valuation for Ordinary Shares of the Company 32
Part 3 Rationales to Accept and/or Reject the Tender Offer 35 3.1 Tender Offer Price of the Ordinary Share 35 3.2 Source of Funds to Finance the Tender Offer 35 3.3 Other Considerations 35
Part 4 Benefits or Impacts from Business Plans and Policies Disclosed in the 38 Tender Offer Document 4.1 Summary of Policy and Business Plan after the Tender Offer 38 4.2 Benefits and Impacts to Shareholders who Reject the Tender Offer 43 (only for the case of Delisting Tender Offer)
Part 5 Conclusion of Opinion of Independent Financial Advisor 44
Attachment A Vacant land and land with buildings Attachment B Real estate projects for sale (including those projects to be launched for sales in the near term) Attachment C Land held for development
GLOSSARY
Abbreviation Meaning SEC The Securities and Exchange Commission SET The Stock Exchange of Thailand Notification on Acquisition of Notification of the Capital Market Supervisory Board No. TorJor Securities for Business Takeover 12/2554 Re: Rules on Acquisition of Securities for Business Takeover, and its amendments, dated Mar 13, 2011
“NVD” or the “Company” Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited The Offeror Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul “Independent Financial Advisor” or I V Global Securities Public Company Limited “Advisor to Shareholders” or “IFA”
IFA Report Opinion Report of the Independent Financial Advisor Independent Property Appraiser - Edmund Tie & Company (Thailand) Co., Ltd. (“EDMUND”) - Sims Property Consultant Co., Ltd. (“SIMS”) - Ktac Appraisal and Service Co., Ltd. (“KTAC”) Financial Advisor Krungthai Zmico Securities Company Limited
DCF Discounted Cash Flows EV Enterprise Value Equity Value Book Value or Shareholders’ Equity Value Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) Free Cash Flow to Firm FV The fair value valuation method is based on the value of the assets appraised by the independent property appraiser. P/BV Price to Book Value Approach P/E Price to Earnings Ratio Approach P/S Price to Sales Ratio Approach Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Terminal Value Company Value at the last projection year WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Opinion Report of the Independent Financial Advisor Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited
TRANSLATION The English Translation of the Independent Financial Advisor’s Opinion Report has been prepared solely for the convenience of foreign shareholders of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited and should not be relied upon as the definitive and official document. The Thai language version of the Independent Financial Advisor’s Opinion Report is the definitive and official document and shall prevail in all aspects in the event of any inconsistency with this translation.
Ref: IB 59/2564 June 22, 2021
Subject: Opinion of the Independent Financial Advisor regarding a Tender Offer for the shares of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited
To: The Board of Directors and Shareholders of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited
Attachment: Attachment A: Vacant land and land with buildings Attachment B: Real estate for sales (including those projects that will be launched for sales in the near term). Attachment C: Land held for development
References: 1) Announcement of Intention to make a Tender Offer (Form 247-3) dated June 2, 2021 2) Tender Offer Form (Form 247-4) by the Tender Offeror dated June 14, 2021 3) Annual Statement Registration (Form 56-1) and Annual Report of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited for the year ended December 31, 2018 - 2020. 4) Audited financial statements of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited for the 12-month period ended December 31, 2018 – 2020, and the interim financial statements for the 3 months ended March 31, 2021. 5) Certificate of company registration, Memorandum of Association, and other documents, as well as interviews with management and relevant personnel of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited. 6) 6 appraisal reports of the properties of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries as prepared by Edmund Tie & Company (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 7) 12 appraisal reports of the properties of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries as prepared by Sims Property Consultant Co., Ltd. 8) 3 appraisal reports of the properties of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries as prepared by Ktac Appraisal and Service Co., Ltd. 9) Related Documents and Agreements
Disclaimers: (1) The result of the study by I V Global Securities Public Company Limited (the “Independent Financial Advisor” or “IFA” or “Advisor to Shareholders”) in this report (or the “IFA Report”) is based on the information and assumptions provided by the management of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited, and the information disclosed to the public through the website of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (the “SEC”) (www.sec.or.th), the Stock Exchange of Thailand (the “SET”) (www.set.or.th), and Business Online Public Company Limited (www.bol.co.th).
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(2) The opinion of the IFA in this report is based on the assumptions that all the information and documents received are accurate and complete, and reflect the operating environment and most up-to-date information at the time of issuance of this report. However, there may be any incident having a material impact on the Company’s business operations and plans, as well as the decision of the shareholders. The Independent Financial Advisor expresses its opinion under the current circumstance. If there is a significant change in the circumstance or any information, the result of the study may be affected. (3) The IFA shall not be responsible for the profits or the losses and any impacts resulting from this transaction. (4) In rendering its opinion in this report, the IFA has considered the reasonableness of conditions of the transaction as well as other related factors thoroughly and rationally following the professional judgments.
Reference is made to the intention of Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (the “Offeror”) to make a mandatory tender offer for all of the remaining securities of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited (“NVD” or the “Company”) as a result of the Offeror’s acquisition of 207,090,000 ordinary shares representing 15.00% of the total voting rights of the Company from Mrs. Wattana Somwattana (the “Share Purchase Transaction”) on June 1, 2021. After combining these newly acquired shares with 138,060,000 shares already held by the Offeror before the Transaction, the Offeror now holds 345,150,000 shares representing 25.00% of the total voting rights of the Company which triggers the threshold of 25% of total voting rights of the Company. Therefore, the Offeror is obliged to conduct a mandatory tender offer for all the remaining securities of the Company pursuant to the Notification of Capital Market Supervisory Board No. Tor Jor 12/2554 (2011) Re: Rules, Conditions, and Procedures for the Acquisition of Securities for Company Takeovers dated 13 May 2011 (as amended). In this regard, concerning this Tender Offer, the total remaining amount of ordinary shares which are subject to the Tender Offer (excluding an amount of 345,150,000 ordinary shares held by the Offeror and an amount of 707,217,919 ordinary shares held by the Dissenting Shareholders) are 328,232,059, representing 23.77% of the total issued and paid-up shares of the Company and 23.77% of the total voting rights of the Company. The Offeror offers the purchase price of the Company’s ordinary shares at the price of THB 2.52 per share (“Offer Price”), which is the final offer price that will not be changed again. This Tender Offer has a total period of 25 business days from June 15, 2021, to July 19, 2021, every business day of the Tender Offer agent from 9.00 AM to 4:00 PM., which the said period is the final period that will not change again. However, the Offeror has conditions for changing the Tender Offer as follows: This Offeror may reduce the Offer Price and/or extend the Tender Offer period. If there is any event that occurs during the Offer Period which causes severe damage to the status of assets of the Company. The Offeror may modify the Tender Offer or extend the Tender Offer period to compete with other persons who submitted a tender offer for the Company’s securities during the Tender Offer period.
The Company has appointed I V Global Securities Public Company Limited (the “Independent Financial Advisor”, or “IFA” or “Advisor to Shareholders”), is an independent financial advisor approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) to provide opinions to the shareholders of the Company regarding this tender offer (“IFA Report”).
The Shareholders are advised to study the information provided by the Advisor to Shareholders together with any other attachments in Form 250-2, to make decisions on this Tender Offer.
In rendering its opinion in this report to the minority shareholders, the Advisor to Shareholders has considered the reasonableness of the price for the shareholders to accept or decline the Tender Offer, which can be summarized as the following:
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Executive Summary
Reference to the intention of Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (the “Offeror”) to make a mandatory tender offer for all of the remaining securities of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited (“NVD” or the “Company”) as a result of the Offeror’s acquisition of 207,090,000 ordinary shares representing 15.00% of the total voting rights of the Company from Mrs. Wattana Somwattana (the “Share Purchase Transaction”) on June 1, 2021. After combining these newly acquired shares with 138,060,000 shares already held by the Offeror, the Offeror now holds 345,150,000 shares representing 25.00% of the total voting rights of the Company which triggers the threshold of 25% of total voting rights of the Company. Therefore, the Offeror is obliged to conduct a tender offer for all the remaining securities of the Company pursuant to the Notification of Capital Market Supervisory Board No. Tor Jor 12/2554 (2011) Re: Rules, Conditions, and Procedures for the Acquisition of Securities for Business Takeovers dated May 13, 2011 (as amended). In making this Tender Offer, the Offeror will offer to purchase all remaining ordinary shares of the Company (excluding the 345,150,000 ordinary shares held by the Offeror and 707,217,919 ordinary shares held by Group of Undertaking Shareholders) in the amount of 380,659,951 ordinary shares representing 23.77% of the total issued and paid-up shares of the Company and 23.77 percent of the total voting rights of the Company. The tender offer for securities (Form 247-4) dated June 14, 2021, can be summarized as follows:
Table 1: Summary of Tender offer (Form 247-4) The Offeror Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul No. of securities The number of ordinary shares which are subject to the Tender Offer (excluding the to be purchased 345,150,000 ordinary shares held by the Offeror and 707,217,919 ordinary shares held by Group of Undertaking Shareholders) are 328,232,059 ordinary shares representing 23.77% of the total issued and paid-up shares of the Company and 23.77% of the total voting rights of the Company. Tender Offer Price THB 2.52 per shares The shareholders who accept the Tender Offer (each an “Offeree”), are subject to payment of a brokerage fee of 0.25 percent of the Offer Price plus value-added tax of 7% of the brokerage fee. Therefore, the net price the Offeree will receive is THB 2.513259 (Two Point Five One Three Two Five Nine Baht) per share, which the said price is the final offer that will not change again unless any event or action occurs during the Offer Period which causes severe damage to the status of assets of the Company or another offeror submits a tender offer of the Company during the Offer Period. Offer Period The Tender Offer period will last for a total of 25 business days from June 15, 2021, to July 19, 2021 (the “Offer Period”), during the office hours of the Tender Offer Agent from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. which the said period is the final period that will not change again unless any event or action that occurs during the Offer Period which causes severe damage to the status of assets of the Company or another offeror submits a tender offer of the Company during the Offer Period.
Summary of the opinion of the Advisor to Shareholders on the appropriateness of the Tender Offer Price of the Company's ordinary shares, which can be summarized the value of ordinary shares according to various calculation methods as follows:
Table 2: Summary of the fair price of the Company’s securities compared with the Tender Offer Price Evaluation Approach Fair value of Tender Offer Fair Value higher (lower) than NVD Price Tender Offer Price
THB per share THB per share THB per share % 1) Book Value Approach 3.26 2.52 0.74 29.4% 2) Adjusted Book Value Approach 4.07 2.52 1.55 61.5% 3) Volume Weighted Average Price Approach (VWAP) 2.29 – 2.57 2.52 (0.23) – 0.05 (9.1)% – 2.0% 4) Market Comparable Approach 4.1) Price to Book Value Approach (P/BV Ratio) 1.53 – 2.25 2.52 (0.99) – (0.27) (39.3)% – (10.7)% 4.2) Price to Earnings Ratio Approach (P/E Ratio) N/A 2.52 N/A N/A
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Evaluation Approach Fair value of Tender Offer Fair Value higher (lower) than NVD Price Tender Offer Price
THB per share THB per share THB per share % 4.3) Price to Sale Ratio Approach (P/S Ratio) 1.75 – 2.27 2.52 (0.77) – (0.25) (30.6)% – (9.9)% 5) Discounted Cash Flow Approach (DCF) Base Case 3.21 2.52 0.69 27.2% Sensitivity Analysis 2.89 – 3.31 2.52 0.37 – 0.79 14.7% – 31.3% Sources: Appraised by the IFA Remark: 1/ N/A Cannot be calculated
The opinion of the IFA The Advisor to Shareholders has considered the appropriateness of the tender offer price, including benefits or impacts from plans and policies specified by the Tender Offeror in the Tender Offer, as well as the possibility of plans and policies specified by the Tender Offeror in the Tender Offer for Securities (Form 247-4) dated June 14, 2021. The Advisor to Shareholders has an opinion that shareholders should reject this Tender Offer due to the following reasons: Tender Offer Price is not appropriate. The Advisor to Shareholders has an opinion that in the valuation of NVD’s shares, the appropriate valuation approaches are; Adjusted Book Value Approach and Discounted Cash Flow Approach, which can be summarized as follows; . Adjusted Book Value Approach: The Advisor to Shareholders is of the opinion that this approach is appropriate to value NVD’s shares for most of the income-generating assets of the Company are “Inventories”, “Cost of property development” and “Land held for development”. The book value of the aforementioned was THB 10,243.21 million or 83.1% of total assets. The fair value of NVD’s shares is THB 4.07 per share, which is higher than the tender offer price of the Company’s securities specified in the tender offer (“Tender Offer Price”) of THB 2.52 per share at THB 1.55 per share or higher than the tender offer price of 61.5%. . Discounted Cash Flow Approach: The Advisor to Shareholders is of the opinion that this approach is appropriate to value NVD’s shares as this approach shall analyze past performance as well as reflect the Company’s ability to generate cash flows and future performance by considering various factors that affect the Company’s operations from the management’s view. The fair value of NVD’s shares calculated from the discounted cash flow approach in the Base Case is equal to THB 3.21 per share, which is higher than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share at THB 0.69 per share or higher than the tender offer price of 27.2%. Moreover, the IFA has conducted a sensitivity analysis which provided the fair price range between THB 2.89 – 3.31 per share, which are higher than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share, equal to THB 0.37 - 0.79 per share, or higher than the tender offer price of 14.7% - 31.3%.
The Advisor to Shareholders has an opinion that the fair value of the Company's shares calculated from the Adjusted Book Value Approach and the Discounted Cash Flow Approach are in the range of THB 2.89 - 4.07 per share. When comparing with the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share, it can be seen that the tender offer price is lower than the fair value range. Therefore, the Advisor to Shareholders has an opinion that the tender offer price of the Company’s shares under this tender offer of THB 2.52 per share is inappropriate. The shareholders should reject to enter into this tender offer.
In any cases the shareholders would rather accept this offer, the shareholders could likely taking into consideration further the market price of the NVD’s shares within the point in time of shareholders would like to redeem this offer with the aspects the IFA would like to elaborate as follow; Scenario 1: If during the tender offer period the market price is higher than the Tender Offer Price Shareholders can select to sell their shares on the stock exchange which has a higher price than the offering price of THB 2.52 per share. However, shareholders should take into account the liquidity risk of the Company's shares trading and the market price of the Company's shares that may reduce if large volumes of shares are sold, resulting in the shareholders’ risk of selling their shares in the desired quantity at the market price in the specified period. Scenario 2: If during the tender offer period the market price is lower than the Tender Offer Price.
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If the Company’s market price traded in the stock exchange is lower than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share during the tender offer period, shareholders can select to accept the tender offer.
In this regard, the shareholders who have a relatively large amount of shares may consider accepting the tender offer partly or entirely to reduce the risk of relatively low trading liquidity. However, the shareholders who wish to invest in the long term can consider deciding not to sell shares at this time. For the business operation plan after the tender offer, including the status of the Company, policies of business operation, and related transactions, the Tender Offeror does not have any plan to make any significant changes. The Tender Offeror continues to allow the Company to be a listed company in the SET and does not have any plan to change policies, regulations, as well as an approval process of the Company’s related transactions. For objectives of business operation, organization structure, acquisition, and disposal of assets owned by the Company and its subsidiaries and dividend payment policy, the Tender Offeror does not have any plan to make any material changes during 12 months from the end of the tender offer period. However, the Tender Offeror wishes to nominate himself and/or his representative to have two seats on the board of directors and may exercise his right to nominate a Chief Financial Officer of the Company. In this regard, the appointment of persons to hold positions of directors and executives of the Company must be carried out following the relevant regulations, Company policy, the meeting of the board of directors of the Company, and/or the meeting of shareholders of the Company. In this regard, If the Offeror changes in business and operation policies, sales and marketing plans, financial structure, or other necessary policies of the Company in any material aspect that differ from those stated in the tender offer within 12 months from the end of the tender offer period, the Tender Offeror must request the Company to seek approval at the shareholders' meeting of the Company before such action with a vote of not less than three-fourth of the total number of votes of shareholders who attend the meeting and have the right to vote, as well as notified the SEC before proceeding. Besides, the shareholders should also consider the risk factor from rejecting the Tender Offer. The main risks are as follows: 1) In the case that large numbers of shareholders accept the Tender Offer, resulting in the decline of free-float shares. The shareholders, who do not accept the Tender Offer and continue to hold the Company’s securities, may expose to liquidity risk of stock trading, resulting in unable to trade the stock promptly and at an appropriate price, while the price and volume of trading must be subject to market conditions at that time. 2) In the case that the shareholders accept the Tender Offer to the level that the accumulated shareholdings by the minority shareholders fall below 15% of total paid-up shares of the Company, resulting in a breach of the free-float requirement for maintaining status as a listed company in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The Company and the Offeror, consequently, may consider decreasing shareholding proportion and/or distributing shares to minority shareholders, as well as implementing other plans to correct the shareholding proportion. If the Company is unable to correct the unqualified shareholding proportion as required by the qualification of the listed company in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The Company, accordingly, will be obligated to pay a fee to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
However, a final decision whether to accept or reject the Tender Offer rests primarily with the individual shareholders’ discretion. The shareholders should study the information contained in the Tender Offer Statement (Form 247-4), the Opinion of the Company regarding the Tender Offer (Form 250-2), and this Opinion Report of Independent Financial Advisor along with other related information provided in Form 250-2 and use this information as a basis for consideration to make their own decision to accept or reject this Tender Offer suitably. This Opinion Report will be complete if it is being considered as a whole. The Advisor to Shareholders shall not be held responsible for the disclosure, reference, or dissemination of the Opinion Report in part without approval from the Advisor to Shareholders.
The Advisor to Shareholders’ opinion is based on the assumptions that all information in consideration was complete and accurate, and reflects the operating environment and most up-to-date information at the time of issuance of this report. Any changes in the information used to formulate an opinion could have a significant impact on the Advisor to Shareholders’ opinion and the decision of the shareholders. The purpose of this report is to provide a recommendation to shareholders of the Company and the Independent Financial Advisor’s opinion should not be misconstrued as a guarantee of the future outcome to the Company and shareholders.
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Part 1: Background of the Transaction
On April 2, 2021, Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (the “Offeror”) entered into a share purchase agreement (“SPA”) with Mrs. Wattana Somwattana and Mr. Sornsak Somwattana (collectively known as the “Seller”) under which the Offeror agreed to acquire the first tranche of NVD shares from Mrs. Wattana Somwattana in an amount of 33,060,000 shares, which is equivalent to 2.39% of the total issued and paid-up shares of NVD, resulting in an increase in the total shares held by the Offeror from 105,000,000 shares or 7.61% to 138,060,000 or 10.00% of the total issued and paid-up shares of NVD. In addition, the sale of Mrs. Wattana Somwattana's shares to other investors is following plan to sell shares of the Company as disclosed in Form 247-4 dated January 18, 2021, of Mrs. Wattana Somwattana and Mr. Sornsak Somwattana. In this regard, under the SPA, the Offeror has the right (not an obligation) to call the Seller to sell additional shares referred to in the SPA as a second tranche within June 30, 2021. On June 1, 2021, the Offeror exercised the call option to purchase additional 207,090,000 shares, equal to 15.00% of the total issued and paid-up shares of NVD, at THB 2.52 per share from Mrs. Wattana Somwattana, which is the same price as the previous tender offer made by Mrs. Wattana Somwattana and Mr. Sornsak Somwattana, as specified in Form 247-4 dated January 18, 2021. Owing to such share acquisition, the total shares held by the Offeror increased to 345,150,000, accounting for 25.00% of the total issued and paid-up shares of NVD or 25% of the total voting rights of NVD, which triggers the threshold of 25% of the total voting shares of the Company. Therefore, the Offeror is obliged to conduct a mandatory tender offer to acquire all remaining securities of the Company pursuant to the Notification of the Capital Market Supervisory Board No. Tor Jor. 12/2554 (2011) Re: Rules, Conditions, and Procedures for the Acquisition of Securities for Business Takeovers dated 13 May B.E. 2554 (2011) (as amended) (the “Notification of Capital Market Supervisory Board No. Tor Jor 12/2554”). The summary of the total number of shares held by the Offeror and persons under Section 258 is as follows:
Table 1-1: The summary of the total number of shares held by the Offeror Name Class of No. of Percentage in Percentage in shares shares comparison comparison with the total with the total of paid-up of voting shares rights of the Company l. The Offeror Ordinary 345,150,000 25.00% 25.00% shares II. Persons in the same group as offerors - - - - III. Related parties under Section 258 of the - - - - person under I and II IV. Related parties under Section 246 and 247 of - - - - the person under I and II V. Other agreements to result in an additional - - - - acquisition of shares by the person under I to III Total 345,150,000 25.00% 25.00% Source: Form 247-4 of the Offeror
Moreover, as of the date of submission of the Tender Offer, the Company has 2 series of warrants in total which are divided into (1) Warrant to purchase newly issued ordinary shares of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited Series No. 1 (“NVD-W1”) in an amount of 276,119,950 units representing 100.00% of total unexercised NVD-W1 and (2) Warrant to purchase ordinary shares of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited to be issued and offered for sale to directors and employees of the company and/ or its subsidiaries No. 1 (“ESOP-W1”) in an amount of 25,000,000 units representing 100.00% of total unexercised ESOP-W1. The Offeror did not hold the warrants issued to grant the right to purchase ordinary shares of the Company in both types. However, the Offeror is not obliged to make an offer to purchase NVD-W1 and ESOP-W1 since these warrants have an exercise price of THB 7.86 per share and THB 6.3841 per share respectively, which are higher than the Offer Price of THB 2.52 per share and the Offeror has not acquired any such warrants for consideration during a period of 90 days before the date on which tender offer document is
I V Global Securities Public Company Limited Part 1 Page 6 Opinion Report of the Independent Financial Advisor Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited submitted to the SEC. Therefore, the Offeror is not obliged to make an offer to purchase these warrants pursuant to Clause 7(2) (Gor) of the Notification of Capital Market Supervisory Board No. Tor Jor 12/2554.
Moreover, as at the date of submission of the Tender Offer, 3 shareholders of the Company announced the notification of intention of decline to sell any of the shares to the Offeror in the Tender Offer (“Group of Undertaking Shareholders”); in any case, such shares amounting to 707,217,919 shares, representing 5.54 percent of total issued and paid-up shares of the Company or equivalent to 51.23% of total voting rights of the Company by signing the letter of intent not to sell shares in this Tender Offer. The details are shown in Table 1-2 below. Besides, such 3 shareholders have transferred their shares as specified in the above letter of intention to the trading account opened with Tender Offer Agent as well as entered into an agreement with Tender Offer Agent to suspend all transactions concerning their shares in NVD including but not limited to a sale, transfer, withdraw or any disposition of NVD shares during the tender offer period by the Offeror to confirm their intention not to sell their shares in the Tender Offer. Table 1-2: List of 3 shareholders under the Group of Undertaking Shareholders No. Name of Shareholders No. of Shares Percentage in Percentage Relationship comparison with in with the the total of paid- comparison Offeror up shares with the total of voting rights of the Company 1. Mrs. Wattana Somwattana1/ 340,664,776 24.67% 24.67% No relationship 2. Mr. Sornsak Somwattana1/ 363,444,333 26.33% 26.33% No relationship 3. Mrs. Jutamas Somwattana2/ 3,111,810 0.23% 0.23% No relationship Total 707,217,919 51.23% 51.23% Remarks: 1/ Mrs. Wattana Somwattana and Mr. Sornsak Somwattana are considered to be acting in concert under the Securities and Exchange Act. 2/ Mr. Sornsak Somwattana’s spouse
In making this tender offer, the number of ordinary shares which are subject to the Tender Offer (excluding the 345,150,000 ordinary shares held by the Offeror and 707,217,919 ordinary shares held by Group of Undertaking Shareholders) are 328,232,059 ordinary shares representing 23.77% of the total issued and paid-up shares of the Company and 23.77% of the total voting rights of the Company. The detail is as follows: Table 1-3: Table of the summary of remaining ordinary shares in the Tender Offer Ordinary Shares No. of Shares Percentage when comparing to Total issued and paid- Total voting up ordinary share of the rights of the Company Company 1. Ordinary shares of The Offeror 345,150,000 25.00% 25.00%
2. Ordinary shares of Group of Undertaking 707,217,919 51.23% 51.23% Shareholders
3. Tender offered ordinary shares 328,232,059 23.77% 23.77%
Total 1,380,599,978 100.00% 100.00% Source: Form 247-4
The Company has appointed I V Global Securities Public Company Limited as (the “Independent Financial Advisor”, or “IFA” or “Advisor to Shareholders”) as an independent financial advisor and it is one of the advisors as approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), to provide opinions to the Company’s shareholders on the Tender Offer in this report (“Opinion Report of the IFA”).
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1.1 Business Information The information about the Company’s business can be viewed in the following sources: Form 250-2 and Form 56-1 that have been published on the official website of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (“SET”) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) at www.set.or.th and www.sec.or.th respectively. . Business Overview . Shares and Shareholding Structure . The list of the latest Board of Directors of the Company and expected Board of Directors after Tender Offer . Summary of Operating Results and Financial of the Company and Industry Competition
1.2 Details About the Tender Offeror The details about the Tender Offeror can be viewed in Form 247-4 of the Tender Offeror that has been published on the official website of the SET and SEC at www.set.or.th and www.sec.or.th respectively.
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Part 2: Opinion of the Advisor of Shareholders on Tender Offer Price
In determining the suitability of the tender offer price, the Advisor of Shareholders has considered the information from audited and reviewed financial statements by a certified auditor of Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited (“NVD” or “the Company”), market prices of the Company's ordinary shares, an estimate of the Company's operating performance obtained from interviews with the Company's management and related staff, property appraisal reports for a public purpose by the Independent Property Appraisers approved by the SEC, the Company’s documents and other relevant information, including a study of business and financial information of comparable companies, as well as information available to the general public. However, the opinion of the Advisor of Shareholders is based on the assumptions that the aforementioned information and important documents are complete, comprehensive, and correct as well as considering the current situation and available information. Any significant changes to those factors may impact NVD’s operation and share valuation as well as the shareholders’ decision to determine the fairness of the tender offer price. The Advisor of Shareholders has determined NVD’s share valuation by using the following five approaches: 1. Book Value Approach 2. Adjusted Book Value Approach 3. Volume Weighted Average Price Approach (VWAP) 4. Market Comparable Approach 4.1 Price to Book Value Approach (P/BV Ratio) 4.2 Price to Earnings Ratio Approach (P/E Ratio) 4.3 Price to Sale Ratio Approach (P/S Ratio) 5. Discounted Cash Flow Approach (DCF)
Each share valuation approach can be summarized as follows:
2.1 Book Value Approach
The share valuation by this approach shows the Company’s value which appeared in the financial statements at a specific point in time. In this case, it is the valuation of NVD's book value according to the consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2020, which are the latest financial statements reviewed by a certified auditor approved by the SEC. The valuation of ordinary shares by this approach is calculated from the shareholders' equity based on NVD's consolidated financial statements divided by the number of the Company’s issued and paid-up shares in which the number of shares used in the calculation of NVD's share value equal to 1,380,599,978 shares, which can be calculated as follows:
Table 2-1: Calculation of the equity value of the Company by using Book Value Approach รายการ March 31, 2021 (Reviewed) Issued and paid-up capital 1,380.60 THB million Premium on share capital 1,251.36 THB million Premium from acquisition 1,589.34 THB million Retained earnings - Appropriated - legal reserve 46.65 THB million Retained earnings - Unappropriated 236.20 THB million Total parent’s shareholders’ equity 4,504.15 THB million No. of Issued and paid-up share capital 1/ 1,380.60 Million shares Book value of NVD 3.26 THB/share
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Source: Financial statements as of March 31, 2021, reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers ABAS Ltd. Remark: 1/ At par value of THB 1 each
According to the share price valuation by the book value approach (current paid-up capital), NVD’s share price shall be THB 3.26 per share, which is higher than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share, equal to THB 0.74 per share or 29.37% higher than the tender offer price.
2.2 Adjusted Book Value Approach
The adjusted book value approach is calculated from the Company’s total assets deducted by the total liabilities including the commitments and contingent liabilities based on the financial statement as of March 31, 2021, and adjusted by the items that occurred after the financial statements have been done or items that affect and result in an increase in book value. The aforementioned items are such as the increase or decrease in the revaluation of the Company’s assets which have not been booked in the financial statements; the reversal of allowance of doubtful account or bad debt, tax-saving from losses carries forward, the contingent liabilities from legal cases, etc. The purpose of these adjustments is to reflect the fair market value of the Company’s assets. The calculated result shall be divided by the total number of the Company’s issued and paid-up shares. The adjustments can be summarized as follows: In NVD's shares valuation under this approach, the Advisor of Shareholders used the book value shown in NVD's latest financial statements as of March 31, 2021, to be adjusted by considering the following key issues:
2.2.1 Gain / Loss from Revaluation of Assets As of March 31, 2021, the Company’s total assets were THB 12,332.59 million; the main assets were inventories, real estate project development costs, and land held for development which had a total book value equal to THB 9,623.53 million or 78.87% of the total assets. The aforementioned assets are assets used in business operations to generate revenue from the real estate business for sale which was the Company’s main revenue. In 2020, the Company’s revenue from the real estate business for sale accounted for 97% of the total revenue. Therefore, the Company appraised assets in respect of inventories, real estate project development costs and land held development, for such assets to reflect the fair value of the respective current market price. In this regard, the total book value of inventory, real estate project development costs, and land held development according to the Company’s financial statements as of March 31, 2021, equal THB 10,243.21 million or 83.06% of total assets. However, some assets were not appraised, which had a total value of THB 619.68 million or 5.03% of total assets due to several reasons: such as the aforementioned assets have been sold after March 31, 2021, or they were assets used in construction work for customers or construction materials inventory such as precast fences, columns, beams and precast concrete panels in which their book value was close to the actual value. The Advisor to Shareholders is an opinion that because the assets are construction works for customers and inventories of such building materials. The book value was recorded based on the actual construction cost or production cost, and/or the asset will be sold or delivered to the customer shortly, so the book value has already reflected the actual value. For the remaining assets of the Company, including cash and cash equivalents, trade and other receivables, amounts due from related parties, unbilled receivables, land deposits, restricted bank deposits, loans to others, right-of-use assets, intangible assets, goodwill, deferred income tax assets and other non-current assets which had a total book value of THB 1,641.53 million or 13.31% of total assets, most of the assets were financial assets and recognized at an actual value such as cash, loans to others, right-of-use assets, trade receivables and other receivables in which the allowance for doubtful accounts had already been made following the Company’s accounting policy, etc. Therefore, the above assets had a book value close to the fair value. However, the Company has not prepared the appraisal report for property plant and equipment which had a total book value of THB 447.85 million or 3.63% of the total assets. The Company has engaged three Independent Property Appraisers approved by the SEC, consisting of (1) Edmund Tie & Company (Thailand) (“EDMUND”) Company Limited, (2) Sims Property Consultant Company Limited (“SIMS”), and (3) KTAC Appraisal and Service Company Limited (“KTAC”) or collectively called “Independent Property Appraisers” to appraise the value of the Company’s assets by having an objective to consider for public purposes. The aforementioned three Independent Property Appraisers have experience in appraising some of the assets of the Company so they have good understandings of the property characteristics.
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All three Independent Property Appraisers have appraised assets according to the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of March 31, 2021, which have a total book value of THB 9,623.53 million or 78.03% of total assets. Details are as follows:
Table 2-2: Summary of assets to be adjusted in their corresponding book values No Item Book Value as at % of Total Assets March 31, 2021 1/ as of March 31, 2021 THB million 1. Inventories 8,769.031/ 71.10% 2. Costs of property development 3. Land held for development 854.501/ 6.93% TOTAL 9,623.53 78.03% 4. Items that were not appraised 619.68 5.03%
TOTAL 10,243.21 83.06% Remark: 1/ The value of assets that are considered under this adjusted book value. Details are of the appraised assets are as follows:
Table 2-3: Increase / Decrease items from appraised assets Book Value Appraisal Appraised Increase / No. Appraised Assets Appendix as at Value (Decrease) Method 31 MAR 2021 THB million THB million THB million 1. Vacant Land plot of 4-1-98.2 rais Market A01 416.30 422.60 6.30 Bangrakyai, BangBua Thong, Nonthaburi Approach1/ 2. Two plots of the vacant Land plot of 110-3-66.8 rais Market A02 1,239.25 1,402.01 162.76 Next to Srinakarin-Rom Klao Road, Saphan Sung, Saphan Approach Sung, Bangkok 3. Land with some construction Cost A03 527.16 519.20 (7.96) Project Nirvana Collection Approach Next to Srinakarin-Rom Klao Road (Krungthep-Kreetha Road), Bangkok 4. Vacant Land plot of 6-0-21.5 rais Market A04 178.86 101.70 (77.16) Rachathewa, BangPhli, SamutPrakan Approach 5. Two groups of vacant land Plots Market A05 1,133.28 1,874.80 741.52 Next to Srinakarin-Rom Klao Road, Bangkok Approach 6. Vacant Land plot of 21-0-65.9 rais Market A06 368.82 510.03 141.21 SoiSukontasawat 19, Bangkok Approach 7. Vacant Land plot of 3-2-90.7 rais Market A07 305.29 342.86 37.57 Prachachuen Road, Bangkok Approach 8. Assets under Residual B01 983.13 874.30 (108.83) 1/ Project Nirvana Beyond Rama 2 Approach
9. Assets under Market B02 21.93 21.62 (0.31) Project Nirvana Beyond Srinakarin Approach
10. Assets under Market B05 124.55 126.39 1.83 Project Nirvana Beyond@ Beach Pattaya Approach
11. Assets under Residual B09 51.35 54.20 2.85 1/ Project The Tara Ramintra Approach
12. Assets under Residual B10 673.04 505.70 (167.34) 1/ Project Nirvana Element Bangna Approach
13. Assets under Market B11 51.35 54.20 2.85 Project Nirvana @ Work Ramintra Approach
14. Assets under Market B12 328.18 329.48 1.31
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Book Value Appraisal Appraised Increase / No. Appraised Assets Appendix as at Value (Decrease) Method 31 MAR 2021 THB million THB million THB million Project Nirvana @ WorkLadprao-Kasetnawamin Approach
15. Assets under Residual B13 477.23 561.00 83.77 1/ Project Nirvana DefineSrinakarin-Rama 9 Approach
16. Assets under Market B14 4.29 6.00 1.71 Project Cover Onnut Approach
17. Assets under Market B15 42.99 44.90 1.91 Project Cluster Ramkhamhaeng Approach
18. Assets under Residual B16 1,596.53 2,113.99 517.46 1/ Project Banyan Tree Residences Riverside Bangkok Approach
19. Assets under Market B17 245.92 469.21 223.28 Approach & Project The Most Issaraphap Cost Method 20. Vacant Land plot of 7-3-50.30 rais Market C01 885.47 913.60 28.13 Rattanathibet, Bang KrasoNonthaburi Approach 21. Items that were not appraised 619.68 619.68
TOTAL 10,243.21 11,840.73 1,596.55
Deduct: Deferred Tax Liabilities 1/ (319.31)
Increment from property valuation for adjustment in Book Value 1,277.24
Remark: 1/ Residual Approach or Cost Approach calculates from the sum of land value from market price comparison analysis and deducts with the depreciated replacement cost of the buildings. 2/ Estimate of Deferred Tax Liabilities at the corporate income tax rate 20% of the difference between the appraised price and book value of assets.
Therefore, the Advisor of Shareholders has adjusted shareholders' equity of the Company up from the difference in the appraisal price and book value of assets for THB 1,277.24 million.
2.2.2 Commitments and Contingent Liabilities According to the notes to the financial statements as of March 31, 2021, the Company’s commitments and contingent liabilities can be summarized as follows:
Table 2-4: Commitments Items Value in THB million
1. Commitments from land purchases 77.31 2. Commitments from construction contracts 612.85 3. Non-cancellable lease commitments 5.90 4. Non-cancellable service commitments 27.73 5. Bank guarantees 128.30
TOTAL 852.08 Source: Notes to the financial statements as of March 31, 2021, as reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers ABAS Ltd.
However, the Advisor of Shareholders applied only List No.3 - 5 with a total value of THB 161.93 million to adjust the book value since List No. 1 and 2 are lists that when being paid the Company shall receive assets back at the same value, so there is no need to adjust the book value.
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Summary of NVD’s Adjusted Book Value
According to the consideration of lists mentioned above, the Advisor of Shareholders has appraised NVD based on the adjusted book value approach which can be summarized as follows: Table 2-5: Calculation of the adjusted book value of the Company Details Value
Total shareholders’ equity as of March 31, 2021 4,504.15 THB million Adjustments THB million 2.2.1Increment from property valuation 1,277.24 THB million 2.2.2Commitments (161.93) THB million Total Adjusted Book Value 5,619.46 THB million No. of Issued and paid-up share capital 1/ 1,380.60 Million shares Adjusted Book Value of NVD 4.07 THB/share Remark: 1/ At par value of THB 1 each
Based on the valuation of the share price by using the adjusted book value approach, the Company's share price is equal to THB 4.07 per share, which is THB 1.55 higher than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share, or higher than the tender offer price of 61.5%.
2.3 Volume Weighted Average Price Approach (VWAP)
VWAP is a share valuation approach based on the demand-supply of shares traded on the SET during 360 business days, i.e., from December 2, 2019 - June 1, 2021. NVD’s share prices have a movement between THB 1.01 – 3.10 in which the lowest price equals THB 1.01 on October 22, 2020, and the highest price equalsTHB3.10 as of March 12, 2021. Trading volume per day of NVD’s shares during that period has a turnover ratio of approximately 0.26% percent of the total number of the Company’s shares. This share valuation approach uses the weighted average market price from the Company’s share trading on the SET in the past at different periods. In this regard, the Advisor of Shareholders has considered the weighted average market price of the Company's shares (the Company's share trading value / the Company’s share trading volume) for the past 7 business days, 15 business days, 30 business days, 60 business days, 90 business days, 120 business days, 180 business days and 360 business days from June 1, 2021 (one business day before the Tender Offeror notified its intention to make a Tender Offer (Form 247-3)). The Advisor of Shareholders has an opinion that such period should reflect the trend and movement of market prices appropriately and it was in line with the reality of the Company’s current business operations. The movement of NVD share prices had a pattern based on the following diagram:
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Diagram 2-1: NVD’s share prices during June 2019 – June 2021
3.50 4 Volume(M. shares) 3 200.0 3.00 Price(THB/share) 2
2.50 1 150.0
2.00
1.50 100.0
1.00 50.0
0.50
0.00 0.0 Jul 19 Jul 20 Oct 19 Oct 20 Apr 20 Apr 21 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Mar 20 Mar 21 Feb 20 Feb 21 Nov 19 Dec 19 Nov 20 Dec 20 Aug 19 Sep 19 Aug 20 Sep 20 May 20 May 21
Source: SETSMART Remarks: 1/ Announcement of significant change in the shareholding structure of the Company (November 23, 2021) – leading to the Tender Offer in early 2021 by Mrs. Wattana Somwattana and Mr. Sornsak Somwattana during January 19 – February 23, 2021. 2/ As of February 24, 2021, Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (“Tender Offeror”), acquired 105 million shares or equivalent to 7.61% of the total issued and registered of the Company (according to Form 246-2). 3/ As of April 2, 2021, Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (“Tender Offeror”), acquired additional 33.06 million shares or equivalent to 2.36% of the total issued and registered of the Company under a Share Purchase Agreement. (As per disclosure in Form 247-3). 4/ As of June 1, 2021, Mr. Chatchai Piyasombatkul (“Tender Offeror”), acquired additional 207.09 million shares or equivalent to 15.00% of the total issued and registered of the Company under a Share Purchase Agreement. (As per disclosure in Form 247-3).
The market price of the Company’s ordinary shares according to the appraisal by VWAP approach can be calculated as follows:
Table 2-6: Closing price and volume-weighted average price 7 - 360 business days
Closing price: Lowest Highest Average Turnover Volume Closing Closing Trading Volume Ratio1/ Weighted before Price Price Average Price June 1, 2021 (THB/share) (THB/share) (No. of shares/day) (THB/share) 7 business days 2.56 2.82 30,751,500 2.22 2.53 15 business days 2.56 2.92 14,871,688 1.08 2.54 30 business days 2.52 2.92 7,882,173 0.59 2.56 60 business days 2.52 3.10 5,379,708 0.40 2.57 90 business days 2.46 3.10 5,875,348 0.43 2.55 120 business days 1.84 3.10 6,082,441 0.44 2.48
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Closing price: Lowest Highest Average Turnover Volume Closing Closing Trading Volume Ratio1/ Weighted before Price Price Average Price June 1, 2021 (THB/share) (THB/share) (No. of shares/day) (THB/share) 180 business days 1.01 3.10 4,837,726 0.35 2.39 360 business days 1.01 3.10 2,666,102 0.19 2.29 Range of NVD’s share price during 7 - 360 business days prior to June 1, 2021 2.29 – 2.57 Source: SETSMART Closing price and volume-weighted average price 7-360 business days before June 1, 2021. Remark: 1/ Turnover Ratio is calculated from Average Trading Volume divided by NVD’s market capitalization on the given period.
According to the above table, the historical weighted average market price of the Company's ordinary shares is in the range of THB 2.29 – 2.57 per share, which are THB (0.23) per share lower than the tender offer price of THB 2.52, or lower than the tender offer price by (9.1)%; and THB 0.05 per share higher than the tender offer price of THB 2.52, or higher than the tender offer price by 2.0%.
2.4 Market Comparable Approach
Appraisal by the market comparable approach is the Company’s valuation by comparing market trading prices traded on the SET based on the assumption that companies in the same industry that have the same business characteristics and operate in similar market conditions shall have close market values. In this regard, the Advisor of Shareholder has considered selecting comparable companies from companies that operate in the property and construction industry/property development sector as same as the Company. In this regard, the Advisor of Shareholders has considered 79 companies that operate in the property development sector and are listed companies on both the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI). According to the analysis, the Advisor of Shareholders has selected 18 companies to be compared ("Comparable Companies") by using the following principles: 1. Total assets are not more than THB 30,000 million; according to the financial statements as of March 31, 2021 (the Company has total assets of THB 12,332.59 million). 2. The proportion of revenue from real estate business for sales is more than 50 percent of total revenue in 2020 according to Form 56-1 of each company (where the Company’s revenue from real estate for sales accounted for 90% of total revenue). 3. Revenue from the real estate business for sales in 2020 is more than THB 1,000 million (the Company’s revenue from the real estate business for sales was equal to THB 2,230 million).
Table 2-7: Comparable publicly listed companies
Company Name Business Nature Total assets % of Revenue Revenue from as at from sales of real estate to (Ticker)1/ 31 MAR 20212/ real estate to Total 2020 Total 2020 Revenue 3/ Revenue 3/ THB million % THB million Areeya Property PCL The company engages in the development of property 13,744.51 96.01 5,512.15 A business. It offers three types of products: 1) single- detached houses; sells land and then constructs house on the said land or sells land with completely built house, 2) townhouse and 3) condominium projects. The company has initiated to development of the community mall named Piccadilly Bangkok. All Inspire Property developer of residential condominiums and 8,220.87 88.34 1,961.73 Development PCL townhomes, real estate brokerage services for the ALL international market, investment and trading of real estate units developed by other developers, and property management services
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Company Name Business Nature Total assets % of Revenue Revenue from as at from sales of real estate to (Ticker)1/ 31 MAR 20212/ real estate to Total 2020 Total 2020 Revenue 3/ Revenue 3/ THB million % THB million ChewathaiPCL CHEWA and its subsidiaries engage in two core businesses, 6,648.39 99.31 1,622.25 CHEWA which are residential development projects and ready-built factories for rent located in Amata City Industrial Estates. Chaoprayamahanakorn CMC operates 3 main businesses as follows: 1. Residential 5,543.57 88.50 1,031.09 PCL property development business includes condominium, CMC townhouse, townhome, and single-detached house, focused mainly on the condominium. 2. Business of property development for lease 3. Construction contractor business and furniture and wall manufacturing business Eastern Star The principal business of ESTAR is related to real estate 7,067.64 95.61 2,562.15 Real Estate PCL development for sale or rent and golf course business in ESTAR Bangkok and Rayong Province. EverlandPCL Real estate and hospital business 9,025.77 95.72 2,963.64 EVER J.S.P. PropertyPCL Property development business, focus on commercial low- 6,856.28 93.81 1,166.87 JSP rise property. The Company develops both residential and commercial property for sale Lalin PropertyPCL Its principal activity is property development for sales. 12,750.85 97.11 5,748.82 LALIN L.P.N. LPN is the developer of urban residential condominiums with 23,618.74 80.47 6,001.26 Development PCL affordable prices. The main target group is the middle to LPN lower-middle income earners. Condominium projects are designed and developed following LPN Design concept which focuses on delivering product value to the customers. The company develops large-scale projects to achieve cost advantage and economy of scale. At the same time, the emphasis is put on achieving economy of speed from upstream to downstream stages in the project development process. Major MJD and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the 18,837.76 89.71 6,677.50 Development PCL development of properties for sales and hotel business, MJD focusing on the high-end condominium that emphasizes luxurious and exclusive lifestyles. M.K. Real Estate MK operates its core business as a real estate developer in 18,618.51 73.42 2,530.40 Development PCL various areas such as developing empty land for sale, MK building the house for sale including the land, providing construction services, building condominium for sale, providing rental and car park services, and golf course services, etc. N.C. Housing PCL NCH operates its principal business as a real estate 4,028.41 98.65 1,769.00 NCH developer for trade in various areas such as houses for sale including land development, providing construction services, condominium for sale, providing rental space in the club house, etc. Noble The principal business is the development of real estate for 19,530.15 96.04 10,463.85 Development PCL sale, providing construction rental and service. NOBLE Prinsiri PCL PRIN and subsidiaries are engaged in real estate 9,212.08 96.56 2,352.07 PRIN development business in the categories of housing estates and condominiums.
Raimon Land PCL RML is principally engaged in property development. The 9,565.49 93.40 2,961.10 RML focus will be a mid-to-high-end condominium, niche townhouse, and villa projects in Bangkok and the resorts. Sammakorn PCL SAMCO is principally engaged in the real estate 5,846.47 87.61 1,490.72 SAMCO development business focusing on developing residential projects in housing as well as after-sale maintenance services. Sena SENA's main business is the development of residential real 15,605.03 70.60 2,888.70 Development PCL estates i.e., single-detached houses, townhouses, and SENA commercial buildings, condominiums and apartments for rent, community mall, golf course, and Solar business
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Company Name Business Nature Total assets % of Revenue Revenue from as at from sales of real estate to (Ticker)1/ 31 MAR 20212/ real estate to Total 2020 Total 2020 Revenue 3/ Revenue 3/ THB million % THB million Univentures PCL Investing in other companies. UV Group operates main 16,947.39 62.30 2,732.76 UV business about real estate development and investment business, real estate for rent and building management, hotel business and manufacturing and distributing the zinc oxide powder and chemicals. Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand, Annual Registration Statements (Form 56-1) of each company and summarized by the Independent Financial Advisor Remarks: 1/ Ticker sorted by alphabetical order 2/ Form 56-1 of each company for as of March 31, 2021, and analyzed by the Independent Financial Advisor 3/ Form 56-1 for the year 2020 of each company
Market ratios that the Advisor of Shareholders has taken into account in the valuation of the Company's shares are as follows:
2.4.1 Price to Book Value Approach(P/BV Ratio) According to this valuation approach of the Company's ordinary shares, the book value of the Company as shown in the consolidated financial statements audited or reviewed by a certified auditor and is the most recent consolidated financial statements shall be multiplied by the median of P/BV ratio of NVD’s comparable companies. In this regard, the P/BV ratio of NVD’s comparable companies during the past 7 business days, 15 business days, 30 business days, 60 business days, 90 business days, 180 business days, 360 business days from June 1, 2021 (one business day before the Tender Offeror notified its intention to make a Tender Offer (Form 247-3)) can be shown in the following table:
Table 2-8: P/BV ratio of Comparable Companies over the past 7 to 360 working days Averages of P/BV (x) Comparable over the past Companies 7-Day 15-Day 30-Day 60-Day 90-Day 120-Day 180-Day 360-Day A 1.38 x 1.38 x 1.38 x 1.38 x 1.38 x 1.37 x 1.34 x 1.41 x ALL 0.94 x 0.94 x 0.95 x 0.97 x 0.97 x 0.94 x 0.90 x 0.88 x CMC 0.73 x 0.73 x 0.71 x 0.61 x 0.53 x 0.48 x 0.43 x 0.36 x CHEWA 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.49 x 0.46 x 0.41 x 0.38 x 0.35 x 0.31 x ESTAR 0.68 x 0.65 x 0.64 x 0.60 x 0.57 x 0.54 x 0.48 x 0.41 x EVER 0.57 x 0.57 x 0.57 x 0.55 x 0.48 x 0.44 x 0.40 x 0.35 x JSP 0.37 x 0.36 x 0.36 x 0.32 x 0.30 x 0.29 x 0.26 x 0.23 x LALIN 1.19 x 1.19 x 1.20 x 1.22 x 1.16 x 1.11 x 1.01 x 0.82 x LPN 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.63 x 0.62 x 0.59 x 0.56 x MJD 0.28 x 0.28 x 0.30 x 0.30 x 0.28 x 0.28 x 0.26 x 0.28 x MK 0.52 x 0.52 x 0.52 x 0.51 x 0.51 x 0.51 x 0.50 x 0.47 x NCH 0.72 x 0.70 x 0.66 x 0.57 x 0.52 x 0.49 x 0.46 x 0.38 x NOBLE 1.61 x 1.61 x 1.75 x 1.83 x 1.81 x 1.84 x 1.81 x 1.45 x PRIN 0.59 x 0.60 x 0.64 x 0.63 x 0.58 x 0.56 x 0.52 x 0.46 x RML 0.77 x 0.70 x 0.68 x 0.65 x 0.61 x 0.59 x 0.55 x 0.51 x SAMCO 0.47 x 0.46 x 0.45 x 0.41 x 0.38 x 0.36 x 0.35 x 0.34 x SENA 0.84 x 0.84 x 0.88 x 0.87 x 0.82 x 0.80 x 0.74 x 0.64 x UV 0.71 x 0.70 x 0.71 x 0.73 x 0.72 x 0.69 x 0.64 x 0.64 x
Median 0.69 x 0.67 x 0.65 x 0.62 x 0.58 x 0.55 x 0.51 x 0.47 x Source: Bloomberg and summarized by the IFA Remark: N/A Non-applicable or cannot be calculated
The median of P/BV of comparable companies is in the range of 0.47 – 0.69 times.
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Table 2-9: Calculation of the fair value of NVD using Price to Book Value approach (P/BV) Minimum of Maximum of the range the range 1/ Book value of NVD (THB million) 4,504.15 4,504.15 Median P/BV ratio of Comparable Companies (times) 0.47 0.69 Fair Value of NVD (THB million) 2,116.95 3,107.86 Fair Value of NVD THB per share 1.53 2.25 Remark: 1/ Reference to the equity value of NVD as of March 31, 2021
Shareholders’ Equity calculated by the price to book value approach of comparable companies is in the range of THB 1.53 - 2.25 per share, which is lower than the tender offer price of THB2.52 per share, equal to THB (0.99) - (0.27) per share or lower than the tender offer price of (39.3)% - (10.7)%.
2.4.2 Price to Earnings Ratio Approach (P/E Ratio) Under this valuation approach of the Company's ordinary shares, the Company's net profit as appeared in the consolidated financial statements audited or reviewed by a certified auditor and are the most recent consolidated financial statements shall be multiplied by the median of P/E ratio of NVD’s comparable companies. In this regard, the P/E ratio of NVD’s comparable companies during the past 7 business days, 15 business days, 30 business days, 60 business days, 90 business days, 180 business days, 360 business days from June 1, 2021 (one business day before the Tender Offeror notified its intention to make a Tender Offer (Form 247-3)) can be shown in the following table:
Table 2-10: P/E ratio of Comparable Companies over the past 7 to 360 working days Averages of P/E(x) Comparable over the past Companies 7-Day 15-Day 30-Day 60-Day 90-Day 120-Day 180-Day 360-Day A 30.79 x 30.79 x 30.83 x 29.39 x 27.97 x 26.66 x 22.72 x 1.84 x ALL 35.27 x 35.01 x 35.62 x 29.32 x 22.53 x 18.63 x 13.95 x 8.76 x CMC 7.81 x 7.82 x 7.61 x 7.09 x 6.57 x 6.34 x 5.79 x (0.45) x CHEWA 22.55 x 22.71 x 22.24 x 20.51 x 18.32 x 18.76 x 22.68 x 26.49 x ESTAR 14.39 x 13.78 x 13.58 x 13.43 x 13.49 x 13.15 x 12.87 x 68.90 x EVER 9.48 x 9.54 x 9.42 x 9.56 x 8.49 x 5.41 x (1.95) x 4.24 x JSP (2.05) x (2.03) x (1.98) x (1.73) x (1.53) x (1.48) x (1.53) x (2.90) x LALIN 6.61 x 6.61 x 6.64 x 6.77 x 6.46 x 6.23 x 5.72 x 5.09 x LPN 11.68 x 11.71 x 11.76 x 11.38 x 10.89 x 10.34 x 8.81 x 7.29 x MJD (57.91) x (57.90) x (61.66) x (45.97) x (28.31) x (18.72) x (8.06) x (1.46) x MK (73.33) x (73.43) x (73.39) x (301.79) x (530.62) x (574.12) x (423.37) x (264.13) x NCH 10.69 x 10.33 x 9.72 x 9.46 x 9.53 x 10.28 x 13.50 x (30.80) x NOBLE 5.23 x 5.25 x 5.70 x 5.89 x 5.78 x 5.84 x 5.66 x 4.04 x PRIN 8.77 x 8.90 x 9.40 x 9.36 x 8.72 x 8.50 x 8.48 x 10.91 x RML (8.98) x (8.14) x (7.97) x (6.89) x (5.78) x (5.23) x (4.66) x (0.47) x SAMCO 13.70 x 13.25 x 12.97 x 14.73 x 16.24 x 12.61 x (1.72) x 3.08 x SENA 5.26 x 5.29 x 5.55 x 5.47 x 5.22 x 5.00 x 4.48 x 4.08 x UV 77.37 x 76.35 x 77.61 x 78.83 x 77.62 x 77.08 x 76.09 x 40.61 x
Median 9.12 x 9.22 x 9.41 x 9.41 x 8.60 x 7.42 x 5.76 x 4.06 x Source: Bloomberg and summarized by the IFA Remark: N/A Non-applicable or cannot be calculated
The median of P/E of comparable companies is in the range of 4.06 – 9.41 times.
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Table 2-11: Calculation of the fair value of NVD using Price to Earnings approach (P/E) Minimum of Maximum of the range the range 1/ Trailing twelve months earnings of NVD THB million (0.69) (0.69) Median P/E ratio of Comparable Companies times 4.06 9.41 Fair Value of NVD THB million N/A N/A Fair Value of NVD THB per share N/A N/A Remark: 1/ Reference to the trailing twelve months earnings for the period April 1, 2020 – March 31, 2021 N/A cannot be calculated
However, NVD has net losses from operation during the past 12 months; the Advisor of Shareholder is unable to use this approach to appraise NVD's shareholders’ equity.
2.4.3 Price to Sales Ratio Approach (P/S Ratio) According to this valuation approach of the Company's ordinary shares, the total revenue of the Company as shown in the consolidated financial statements audited or reviewed by a certified auditor and are the most recent consolidated financial statements shall be multiplied by the median of P/S ratio of NVD’s comparable companies. In this regard, the P/S ratio of NVD’s comparable companies during the past 7 business days, 15 business days, 30 business days, 60 business days, 90 business days, 180 business days, 360 business days from June 1, 2021 (one business day before the Tender Offeror notified its intention to make a Tender Offer (Form 247-3)) can be shown in the following table:
Table 2-12: P/S ratio of Comparable Companies over the past 7 to 360 working days Averages of P/S(x) Comparable over the past Companies 7-Day 15-Day 30-Day 60-Day 90-Day 120-Day 180-Day 360-Day A 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.87 x 0.90 x 1.31 x ALL 1.17 x 1.16 x 1.18 x 1.16 x 1.12 x 1.07 x 1.02 x 0.86 x CMC 0.72 x 0.72 x 0.70 x 0.62 x 0.55 x 0.53 x 0.54 x 0.49 x CHEWA 1.15 x 1.16 x 1.14 x 1.05 x 0.94 x 0.87 x 0.75 x 0.64 x ESTAR 1.21 x 1.16 x 1.14 x 1.08 x 1.05 x 1.00 x 0.94 x 1.04 x EVER 0.42 x 0.42 x 0.42 x 0.42 x 0.37 x 0.36 x 0.39 x 0.35 x JSP 1.38 x 1.36 x 1.33 x 1.20 x 1.09 x 1.04 x 0.95 x 0.77 x LALIN 1.54 x 1.54 x 1.55 x 1.58 x 1.50 x 1.45 x 1.32 x 1.12 x LPN 1.04 x 1.05 x 1.05 x 1.04 x 1.01 x 0.98 x 0.89 x 0.81 x MJD 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.26 x 0.26 x 0.24 x 0.23 x 0.22 x 0.24 x MK 1.13 x 1.13 x 1.13 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.11 x 1.10 x 0.98 x NCH 0.85 x 0.82 x 0.77 x 0.71 x 0.68 x 0.66 x 0.68 x 0.65 x NOBLE 0.92 x 0.93 x 1.01 x 1.04 x 1.02 x 1.02 x 0.98 x 0.70 x PRIN 1.16 x 1.18 x 1.24 x 1.22 x 1.13 x 1.09 x 1.05 x 1.01 x RML 0.96 x 0.87 x 0.85 x 0.88 x 0.87 x 0.88 x 0.90 x 1.04 x SAMCO 0.69 x 0.67 x 0.66 x 0.61 x 0.56 x 0.54 x 0.52 x 0.52 x SENA 1.46 x 1.47 x 1.54 x 1.52 x 1.44 x 1.38 x 1.24 x 1.00 x UV 1.82 x 1.80 x 1.83 x 1.86 x 1.84 x 1.76 x 1.56 x 1.11 x
Median 1.09 x 1.09 x 1.09 x 1.04 x 1.02 x 0.99 x 0.92 x 0.84 x
Source: Bloomberg and summarized by the IFA Remark: N/A Non-applicable or cannot be calculated
The median of P/S of comparable companies is in the range of 0.84 – 1.09 times.
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Table 2-13: Calculation of the fair value of NVD using Price to Sales approach (P/S) Minimum of Maximum of the range the range 1/ Trailing twelve months revenue of NVD THB million 2,868.99 2,868.99 Median P/S ratio of Comparable Companies times 0.84 1.09 Fair Value of NVD THB million 2,409.95 3,127.20 Fair Value of NVD THB per share 1.75 2.27 Remark: 1/ Reference to the trailing twelve months revenue for the period April 1, 2020 – March 31, 2021
Shareholders’ Equity calculated by the price to sales ratio approach of comparable companies is in the range of THB1.75 - 2.27 per share, which is lower than the tender offer price of THB 2.52 per share, equal to THB (0.77) - (0.25) per share or lower than the tender offer price of (30.6)% - (9.9)%.
2.5 Discounted Cash Flow Approach (DCF)
Discounted Cash Flow Approach (“DCF”) valuation is an approach that takes into account the future performance and profitability of assets by calculating the present value of projected net cash flows with an appropriate discount rate. The Advisor of Shareholders has calculated the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to be used as a discount rate and to calculate future net cash flows from the Company's financial projection for the next 7 years (2021-2027) to be in line with the current revenue recognition of real estate for sales and home building business which will have completed the revenue recognition by the year 2027. This is based on a going concern basis without any significant changes and under the current economic conditions and situations. The Advisor of Shareholders has prepared the Company’s projection based on information and assumptions received from the Company and from interviews with the management and relevant staff to determine the fair value of the Company's ordinary shares to provide opinions for consideration to accept or reject this tender offer for the Company’s ordinary shares only and cannot be used as a reference price other than the aforementioned objective. However, if the economic condition and other external factors affecting the Company’s operations, as well as the Company’s internal situation have significantly changed from the given assumptions, the share value assessed by this approach will change as well. At present, the Company operates a real estate business in which the business can be divided into 3 main business groups: (1) real estate development business for sales by developing residential projects under different brands according to product model, price, and target customer groups in each location; (2) home-building business under a Turnkey Solution joint venture, the Company shall undertake the complete project development from design, sales management, marketing management, construction, ownership transfer, and after-sales service; and (3) sales of construction materials and other businesses, consisting of 3.1 sales of construction materials and precast fence business which is a business that supports construction works in real estate development projects of affiliated companies and 3.2 real estate development for rent business. Valuation of the Company’s ordinary shares by DCF, by using the sum-of-the-parts approach is a separate valuation by taking into account the profitability in the future of each company/project separately to reflect the fair value based on fundamentals of each company/project which can be summarized as follows:
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Diagram 2-2: The valuation of the Company’s shares by DCF, by using the sum-of-the-parts approach
Remark: FV refers to the fair value of the appraised assets by the Independent Property Appraisers
Valuation of the Company that operates real estate development business for sales, homebuilding business, and product sales business which are businesses that have operations and generated cash inflow- outflow, the Advisor of Shareholders has an opinion that the aforementioned businesses can refer to the Company’s cash flow projection. Therefore, the discounted cash flow approach can be used to determine the fair value. However, for vacant land or land with premises that are in the process of studying the feasibility of projects, the Advisor of Shareholders has an opinion that the project development is still uncertain, therefore, fair value (FV) shall be referred to as the appraised value of the property appraisal report by the Independent Property Appraisers which will reflect the fair value of the assets. For the remaining units for sales in the existing projects and houses that are built to customers outside the projects, which have not been appraised by the Independent Property Appraiser or have been appraised before the year 2020, the Advisor of Shareholders has an opinion that the book value should be used as a fair price.
Key assumptions used in the Company's financial projection can be summarized as follows:
2.5.1 Real Estate Development Business for Sales, Homebuilding Business, Product Sales Business, and Other Businesses
2.5.1.1 Assumptions of Revenue, Costs, and Expenses of Real Estate Development Business for Sales and Homebuilding Business
The Advisor of Shareholders has used the discounted cash flow approach to evaluate real estate projects for sales, including future projects with a definite plan (projects that will be launched for sales in the near term) which can be summarized as follows:
Table 2-14: Existing projects as of March 31, 2021 No. Project Type of Project Construction Sales Backlog Residual 1/ Project Value Progress Progress Project Value THB % % THB million THB million million B01 Nirvana Beyond Rama 2 3-storey SDH 2,598 63% 45% 101.1 1,680 B02 Nirvana Beyond Srinakarin 3-storey SDH 1,000 100% 100% 27 18 B03 Nirvana Beyond 3-storey SDH 1,069 100% 100% 0 0 Kasetnawamin Phase 1
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No. Project Type of Project Construction Sales Backlog Residual 1/ Project Value Progress Progress Project Value THB % % THB million THB million million B04 Nirvana Beyond 3-storey SDH 709 100% 97% 2.8 22 Kasetnawamin Phase 2 B05 Nirvana Beyond 3-storey SDH 410 99% 29% - 310 @ Beach Pattaya B06 Nirvana Icon Pinklao2/ Turnkey Project 191 62% 28% B07 Nirvana Beyond Udonthani2/ Turnkey Project 520 50% 3% B08 Nirvana Beyond Turnkey Project 492 27% 14% Bangna @ U Park 2/ B09 The Tara Ramintra 2-storey SDH 268 100% 78% - 73.22 B10 Nirvana Element Bangna 2-storey SDH 2,037 38% 7% 156 1,868 B11 Nirvana @ Work Ramintra Home Office 1,025 95% 98% 36 25 B12 Nirvana @ Work Home Office 1,048 96% 67% 13.6 400 Ladprao-Kasetnawamin B13 Nirvana Define Town Home 1,761 96% 69% 100 633 Srinakarin-Rama 9 B14 Cover Onnut Town Home 550 100% 99% - 6 B15 Cluster Ramkhamhaeng Town Home 101 100% 60% - 45 B16 Banyan Tree Residences Condominium 6,506 100% 64% 568 2,574 Riverside Bangkok B17 The Most Issaraphap Condominium 701 99% 76% 289 242 B18 Nirvana Beyond 3-storey SDH 2,907 35% 11% - 2,600 Rama 9- KrungthepKreetha Source: The Company, summarized and assessed by the Advisor of Shareholders Remark: 1/ Details of each project are disclosed in Appendix B 2/ The project is a joint venture with the land owner for project development. The Company recognizes home-building business under this project. SDH means single-detached houses
(1) Revenue Assumptions of Real Estate Development Business for Sales and Homebuilding Business
Table 2-15: Summary of projected revenue of each project Assumption(s) of the Advisor Assumption(s) of Shareholders Residual Project Please refer to the summary . Previous actual sales information until March 31, Value table above and information of 20211/ each project in Attachment B . Information from the Company’s management and sales plan Number of Please refer to the summary . Information regarding the number of remaining Remaining Units table of each project in units from the Company’s management and related Attachment B persons for units that have been completely constructed or under construction. . Reviewed with the project's property appraisal report prepared by the Independent Property Appraiser Sales Rate Please refer to the summary . Actual sales information until March 31, 20211/ table of each project in . Information from the Company’s management and Attachment B sales plan Payment Terms Please refer to the summary . According to the Company’s policy table of each project in . Actual sales information until March 31, 20211/ Attachment B . Information from the Company’s management and sales plan Others Down payment and ownership . According to the Company’s policy transfer transactions are . Actual sales information until March 31, 20211/ scheduled to be completed . Information from the Company’s management and within 1 year sales plan
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Assumption(s) of the Advisor Assumption(s) of Shareholders
Source: The Company, summarized and assessed by the Advisor of Shareholders Remark: 1/ Historical information from the past 1-3 years, depending on the project as each project started selling at a different period
(2) Costs and Expenses Assumptions of Real Estate Development Business for Sales and Homebuilding Business
Table 2-16: Summary of projected costs and expenses of each project Assumption(s) of the Advisor Assumption(s) of Shareholders Cost of sales and Please refer to the summary . Information of land cost, land development cost, services table of each project in construction cost, and other costs incurred in the Attachment B past until March 31, 2021 . Based on information from the Company’s management and sales plan Marketing expenses Average 3.00% of sales . Information of marketing expenses incurred in the Except for projects with low past until September 30, 2020 remaining units such as Nirvana . Based on a financial projection from the Company’s Beyond Srinakarin and Nirvana management and related persons Beyond Kasetnavamin Phase 1, etc. Promotion expenses Average 2.00% of sales . Information of promotion expenses incurred in the Except for projects with low past until March 31, 2021 remaining units . Based on a financial projection from the Company’s management and related persons Project management Average 5.00% of sales . Expenses collected by the Head Office from the expenses project . Information of project management expenses incurred in the past until March 31, 2021 . Based on a financial projection from the Company’s management and related persons Transfer fees 1.00% of the transfer value . All transfer fees are equal to 2.00%, 50:50 paid by according to the terms of the the Company and customer according to the agreement signed with the Company's policy customer Specific business tax 3.30% of the transfer value . Under applicable laws Source: The Company, summarized and assessed by the Advisor of Shareholders
The Advisor of Shareholders has prepared a summary table of each project in Attachment B (Project B01 to B18) in which an example of a summary table of revenue, costs, and expenses assumptions of Project B01: Nirvana Beyond Rama 2 is as follows:
Table 2-17: Example of a summary of revenue, cost, and expenses assumptions of Project B01, Nirvana Beyond Rama 2 B01.Nirvana Beyond Rama 2
No List Details and Financial Assumptions 1. Project Information 3-storey single-detached houses project Located next to Rama 2 Road, Samae Dam Sub-district, Bang KhunThian District, Bangkok Ownership Right Nirvana Daii Public Company Limited Total Project Value 2,596 THB Million Officially Launched Year2015 Project Area 40-3-84.7 rais Construction Progress 92 % as of March 31, 2021 2. Key Project Information Overall Project Backlog Remaining Units Number of Units 120 units 3 units 82 units
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B01.Nirvana Beyond Rama 2
No List Details and Financial Assumptions Value 2,598 THB Million 101.2 THB Million 1,680 THB Million 3. Sales Rate 10 Units per year Entered into an agreement + 9 down payment 20% of unit value 4. Terms of Payment installments Transfer the residual on the delivery date 80% of unit value 5. Project Costs (For usage in the projection) Land cost, land development 1,112 THB Million cost, and construction cost 6. Selling and administrative expenses Marketing Expenses 3.00% of sales Sales Promotion 2.00% of sales Management Expenses 5.00 % of sales Transfer Fee 1.00 % of transfer value Specific Business Tax 3.30 % of transfer value Source: The Company, summarized and assessed by the Advisor of Shareholders
2.5.1.2 Revenue and Costs Assumptions of Product Sales Business Product sales business consists of the sales of construction materials and finished fences which support construction works in real estate project development of affiliate companies. In preparing a financial projection this time, the Advisor of Shareholders has based on the Company’s past information and business plan in which the important assumptions can be summarized as follows:
(1) Revenue assumptions of product sales business Table 2-18: Revenue from products sales business Items FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 3M 2021 Revenue from the sale of goods (THB 125.87 85.37 21.50 2.45 million) Proportion to the total revenue (percent) 4.26% 3.15% 0.87% 0.33% Growth (percent) (27.07)% (32.18)% (74.82)% N/A Source: The financial statements of NVD and analyzed by the Advisor of Shareholders Remark: N/A cannot be calculated
In the year 2018 - 2020 and the first three months of 2021, revenue from product sales equal THB 125.87 million, THB 85.37 million, THB 21.50 million, and THB 2.45 million, respectively. Revenue from product sales continued to decline because, in the year 2018, the Company focused on producing products to sell to affiliated companies rather than to outsiders due to a relatively low profit margin compared to the resources required by the operations. And in 2019, revenue from product sales decreased by 32% compared to the year 2018 as the auditor proposed an accounting improvement by removing revenue and costs from the sales of the prefabricated concrete fence and prefabricated concrete structures sold by QTECH (a subsidiary of NVD) to contractors for the use in NVD's projects from the consolidated financial statements. According to an interview with the management, the management has an opinion that the 2021 full-year growth rate continued to show a slower pace. The management of NVD believes that revenue from the sales of construction materials and prefabricated fence business at THB 25 million and will have growth in the year 2021 - 2025 at 3.00 - 5.00. However, the Advisor of Shareholders determined that in the year 2021 at THB 21.5 million which is equivalent to the year 2020 figures. The prevalent COVID-19 pandemic put still depresses the economy, just like the year 2020. The Advisor of Shareholders believes that the Company should be able to achieve the target in 2022 as the government has implemented the administration of mass vaccinations aiming to vaccinate at least 50 million people by October 2021, as well target to reopen Thailand within 120 days (which is in mid-October 2021) However, for a careful projection, the Advisor of Shareholders will set the annual growth rate of 2021 - 2027 at 0.40 percent, according to base on the average 7-year inflation rate of Thailand. The projected revenue for the product sale business is between THB 21.50 – 25.50 million, in which the Advisor of Shareholders is reasonable as compared to the historical performance. By looking at 2020 when the economy was hit hard by the
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COVID-19 crisis, the Company was able to generate an income of THB 21.50 million. Therefore, the revenue estimates in the forecast period by the Advisor of Shareholders from 2022 (when the aforementioned impact should begin to ease with the mass vaccination) between THB 25.00 – 27.14 million is not much higher than during the crisis. The Company should be able to achieve the target.
(2) Costs assumptions of product sales business Table 2-19: Cost of product sale business Items FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 3M 2021 Cost of sales of goods (THB million) 110.13 69.02 15.30 1.80 Proportion to sales of goods (percent) 87.50% 80.85% 71.16% 73.42% Source: The financial statements of NVD and analyzed by the Advisor of Shareholders
Cost of product sales business which mainly produces and sells prefabricated fences, doors, and windows in the year 2018 – 2020, and the first three months of 2021, equal to THB 110.13 million, THB 69.02 million, THB 15.30 million, and THB .1.80 million or 87.50%, 80.85% 71.16%, and 73.42% of revenue from product sales business, respectively. The proportion of the cost to revenue from product sales business has continually decreased from the year 2018-2020, but slightly improved in the first three months of 2020 According to the management's projection, the proportion of cost-to-revenue ratio in the future will be approximately 70%. Therefore, the Advisor of Shareholders has determined that the costs of product sales business shall be at 75 %of revenue from product sales throughout the projection period, which is in line with the level of the first three months of 2021. The Advisor of Shareholders believes that the cost ratio of the product sales business is 75% of the revenue from the product sales business. This is a reasonable number because it is the level of cost that an entity has achieved in 2020 and this reflects the slight increase in the cost ratio of the first three months of 2021.
2.5.1.3 Assumptions– Other Revenues
Other revenue consists of management fees, interest revenue, revenue from deposits and fines, gain on disposal of investments or special profits from disposal of land, etc. From the year 2018 - 2020, and the first three months of 2021, the Company has continued to have other revenue equals to THB 59.03 million, THB 56.36 million, THB 51.27 million, and THB 20.15 million in which another revenue has an average growth rate during the year 2018 - 2020 equal to (6.81%). However, the historical growth rates were rather volatile, a downward trend during 2018 – 2020, but increased in the first three months of 2021. The three-year average of other revenues is THB 55.55 million. Besides, the Company has begun to operate a recurring income business where the first project that has been invested and fully operated since mid-2020 was a parking building at Soi Choei Phuang. The Advisor of Shareholders thus sees that this new recurring business should be able to generate future income. The Advisor of Shareholders projects other revenues in the year 2021 at THB 55.55 million, using the three-year average. However, the Advisor of Shareholders will determine the growth rate of other revenues in the projection period at 0.40% percent based on the average 7-year (2014-2020) inflation rate of Thailand. Throughout the projected periods, other revenues will be between THB 55.55 - 56.90 million, which the Advisor of Shareholders thinks is appropriate and achievable when compared with the past performance and from the reasons that the Company has just begun to have these additional sources of income. The Advisor to Shareholders is of the opinion that the estimated other income is between THB 55.55 – 56.90 million, higher than the average of other income for the past 3 years (2018 - 2020) of THB 55.55 million that has no other income from new business. The Company should be able to achieve this estimate. Table 2-20: Other Revenues Items FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 3M 2021 Other Revenue (THB million) 59.03 56.36 51.27 20.15 Growth (%) 17.03% (4.52)% (9.03) N/A The 3-year average of other revenues 55.55 (2018-2020) ( THB million) Source: The financial statements of NVD and analyzed by the Advisor of Shareholders Remark: N/A cannot be calculated
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2.5.1.4 Other assumptions
(1) Administrative expenses Administrative expenses are staff expenses (consist of wages, overtime wage, bonuses, living expenses, and other related expenses, etc.), head office rental, utility bills, and advisory fees. During the year 2018 - 2020 and the first three months of 2021, administrative expenses were THB 272.19 million, THB 313.46 million, THB 289.54 million, and THB 73.95 million or equivalent to 9.2%, 11.6%, 11.7%, and 9.95% of the total revenue, respectively. In preparing a financial projection, the Advisor of Shareholders used assumptions regarding administrative expenses as follows: . Staff expenses in the projection period shall increase by 3.2% per year based on the average growth rate in the year 2018 - 2020 of these expenses. . Head office rental will increase by 5% per year according to the management's estimation. . Utility bills in the projection period shall increase by 0.40% per year based on the average 7- year inflation rate of Thailand. . Advisory fees (such as audit fees, fees of independent property appraisers) shall increase by 5% per year based on the management's estimations. . Depreciation of assets The Advisor of Shareholders determined that each asset class shall be depreciated at a fixed rate based on a straight-line approach in which the depreciation of each asset shall be calculated differently according to the Company's accounting policy. Details are as follows:
Table 2-21: Depreciation and Amortization period Type of Asset Depreciation and Amortization period (years) Buildings and building improvements 5 – 20 Land Improvements 5 – 10 Machine 5 – 10 Equipment and office equipment 3 - 10 Source: The Company
(2) Corporate income tax Corporate income tax rate is equal to 20% throughout the projection period.
(3) Capital Expenditure The Advisor of Shareholders determined the capital expenditure equal to THB 25 million per year throughout the projection period according to the Company’s investment plan in which most of which is the establishment of showrooms of the new projects to boost sales. The Advisor of Shareholders used the assumption of 10-year capital expenditure depreciation according to the Company’s policy that the depreciation period shall be 5 - 20 years.
(4) Assets and liabilities turnover
The Company's management expected that current assets turnover and current liabilities turnover shall be at the same level as in the year 2020 and in the first 3 months of 2021. Account receivables approximately 25 days Inventories approximately 33 days Account payables approximately40daysfor product sales business And approximately 30 days for real estate development business for sales and homebuilding business.
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(5) Terminal Growth Rate Generally, real estate development companies for sales shall continue to develop projects every year, but in this case, the Advisor of Shareholders conducts projections on the clear project with a definite plan and assumptions. The projection will thus end in 2027, and the terminal value of the real estate development business for sales and homebuilding business equal to zero based on a conservative basis. In other businesses, the Advisor of Shareholders projected the long-term growth rate of cash flows after the year 2027, which is the last projection year, equal to 0.0 percent per year based on a conservative basis.
(6) Discount Rate = Weighted Average Cost of Capital or WACC the Advisor of Shareholders determined the WACC by the following components: