IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2017 130 Geopolitical Turmoil and its Effects in the Mediterranean Region Dossier tive consider it an existential threat. existential an it consider tive “Death to the America,” whereas most conserva dent Rouhani to wishes phaseout the slogan Presi Iran: in threat” “American the of assessment tional There is borders. likewise a debate on the the frontline of struggle against Daesh far from na Yemen) Syria, to shift (Iraq, wars regional in volved ( Corps Guard Revolutionary Islamic the among als individu radical most by the itself Iran in contested is viewpoint This conflicts. to settle order in East Middle Greater the in alliances of Iran’s network to use preferable be would it perspective, this From zone. aconflict in presence apacific hani: Rou by President forth put one the is view first The East. Middle the in Iran of role the interpreting for perspectives various are There itself. of and in danger future hold could jihadism Sunni against aid Iranian contrary, the on if, or Daesh against struggle the in partner a be Tehran could whether to ascertain attempt We controversy. of will source a constant been has Tehran’s of policy nature the regional neighbours, Arab its for power adestabilizing as then since appeared has that Republic Islamic to an Pahlavi Mohammad-Reza Shah under Gulf Persian the of watchdog the From Iran. of West’s perception the 1978-1979 of Revolution Islamic The transformed London International InstituteforStrategicStudies(IISS), Research Fellow fortheMiddleEastProgramme Clément Therme Reality and Iran and Middle East Conflicts: Myths Turmoil Geopolitical Dossier: Region in the its and Mediterranean Effects 1 pdf?R.Ck9Gr6VPAvyWbG2JIPf3ab DR201S1pdf?R.Ck9Gr6VPAvyWbG2JIPf3ab 2017, April 1https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170421_Farhi_Iranian_Power_Projection. p. Program, See pasdaran F arhi , Farideh ). The latter believe Iran should get in get should Iran believe ). latter The .

Power Projection Strategy and Goal and Strategy Projection Power Iran

------, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Middle East East Middle (CSIS) Studies International and Strategic for , Center in order to boost its national security power its of projection the uses that policy regional Tehran’s in acontinuity observe can One correct. proven not likewise has into effect went deal nuclear the after level regional the on aggressive more come be would Iran to which according hypothesis The Arabia. Saudi particular in neighbours, Gulf sian Per certain and Iran between relations normalized not has it theory, bargain” “grand to the contrary however, that, remains, fact The avoided. toUS be the and Iran between confrontation amilitary lowed 14 on 2015 reached July Action) of Plan al has The nuclear Iran deal (the Joint Comprehensive gional chaos. to re victim fallen has turn, in Iran, today, since limits its however, neared has Iraq, in particularly Daesh, to eliminate Iran’s will terrorism. against struggle the of framework the within years three for presented been also has by Daesh Mosul 2017. of capture the and action Iran’s regional 2013, in in again and campaign presidential the of atmosphererity moreover, was, one of the issues of surveillance thecreased population. This- secu has been restriction of individual and liberties in coin the of side other the but surveillance, ened uted to reducing the terrorist through risk height tance. Tehran’s spy mania contrib has certainly primordialwhich impor lends security services Iran’s, as such regime authoritarian an even for ist, ex not does risk zero all, of first factors: several of country’s Kurdish is the provinces, consequence the from some jihadists, Sunni by Iranian petrated 2017 7 June of attack Daesh the per case, any In power. regional amajor as 1 and emerge emerge and ------preme Leader will only support him in his policy to policy his in him support only will Leader preme Yemen). and Iraq Su The (Syria, wars regional from détente, in his particular plan for disengagement for ambitions diplomatic Rouhani’s to limit attempt compromise with the Gulf oil monarchies and will at attempt any oppose will Corps Guard olutionary Rev the politics, to regional regard With reform. cal politi any fear who ayatollahs by elderly dominated a judiciary with have to deal will he rights, to human prevent him from applying his reforms. With regard to attempt will Corps) Guard Revolutionary lamic Is the and Branch Judiciary the Leader, Supreme (the institutions unelected place, first the In hani. Rou by President met are aspirations popular these The challenges to overcome remain significant until or and politics. regional interi both regarding population, Iranian the among fatigue regardingcertain revolutionary slogans development.socio-economic This also reveals a country’s the on afocus and détente of policy eign choseclass a centrist president, expecting a for international stage) middle situations. TheIranian (détente the on exterior and reform) to gradual tion (aspira interior country’s the to normalize awill of expression people’s the marked victory This votes. the of 38.3% obtained who Raissi, Ebrahim tive conserva the rival, over his prevailed votes, the of presidential Rouhani, elections, Hassan with 57% 19On 2017, May Iranian the of round first the in Power Presidential of Limits The Rouhani’s Re-election: best results). his (at 73.2%, Province Baluchistan and Sistan the in results to by Rouhani’s attested is This moderate. are Sunnis Iranian majority, immense their in less, Nonethe der influence) Deobandi be observed. can un (particularly Islam traditional of radicalization of hand, in Kurdish and Baluch provinces, phenomena other the Tehran. in On mosques Sunni all iting prohib for justification official an provides that issue elite) and against Salafism. It is precisely this Salafist Sunni the (co-opting 15%mately population the of Iran’s Sunni community, which represents approxi in radicalization against struggling is State The stan. Afghani and Syria Iraq, in namely Daesh, in ants Moreover, there are several dozen combat Iranian ------for Russia, Iran is an asset in defeating the high-pri the defeating in asset an is Iran Russia, for controversial: is jihadism Sunni against aid Iranian case, any In Daesh. against struggle the in a partner be Tehran could time, “evil,” same at the as but ence influ day, Iranian Trump the qualifies Administration To fire. under been continually has policy regional Tehran’s of nature the neighbours, Arab its for power a destabilizing as emerged since has that Republic toIslamic an Pahlavi Mohammad-Reza Shah der un Gulf Persian the of watchdog the From matically. dra changed has Iran of West’s perception the tion, 1978-1979 the since Indeed, back. Revolu Islamic is conflict East Middle of cause premiere the as Iran renthesis. The conventional perception American of Administration close concerning Iran the pa Obama Trump the under statements US that remains fact the its engagements from the 2015 nuclear Iran deal, to keep Trump’s continued facto de Although has US and Saudi Arabia Iran between significant in relationsparticularly Suchtension arises. leadership is the question of Iran’s religious mention and Bahrain, Saudi Arabia From Afghanistan to not Iraq, to confrontation with Republic. the Islamic regional their in Israelis and Saudis the to support it seems that the Trump Administration haschosen Tehran, with dialogue adirect by establishing tions rela Washington-Riyadh to restore attempted tion Administra Obama the whereas addition, In Arabia. Saudi and Iran between relations in significant larly ligious leadership Such arises. tension is particu Iran’s re of question the Bahrain, and Arabia Saudi to not mention to Iraq, Afghanistan From munity. com Shiite a considerable with countries in greater even is concern This East? Middle Greater the in groups to non-state ties with Iran security-state the or synergies, economic on based relations win win- seeks which Iran, Rouhani’s gotiate? President ne they should Iran which With Iran’s neighbours. This institutional fosters among duality concern Islamic Republic and his personal power. the of purity revolutionary the both to preserve tives ultra-conserva the use will and economy the revive ------

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2017 131 Geopolitical Turmoil and its Effects in the Mediterranean Region Dossier IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2017 132 Geopolitical Turmoil and its Effects in the Mediterranean Region Dossier ed that: “The Russians wish to show they are asu are they to show wish Russians that: “The ed interests ( to their according exclusively act they that and able reli not were Russians the that stated Dehghan sein Hos Minister Defence Iranian public, became tion 2016. August in informa the aviation When Russian by use its regarding media Russian by the revelation the before ayear nearly for secret Hamadan near airbase Nojeh Shahid its of use the kept had Iran that seems it Syria, in intervention military Russian After (civil technologies. and dual-use military) certain powers maintain an embargo on exports military and 2015, July in Western deal major the for nuclear the of signature the after place in remained entente This co-operation. nuclear civil or space military, as such sectors strategic in co-operation bilateral for change ex in obtained was diplomacy, by Russian tablished es framework to the according areas, these of tion stabiliza to the Iran’s contribution East. Middle the uprisings,Arab this entente has spread to include Since theghanistan, and the onset Caucasus. of the agreement to stabilize including Asia, Central Af to an came States two 1990s, the the In area. viet So former the in co-operation regional War period: in the post-Cold partnership the Russian-Iranian of parameters main the of one confirms areas two the between connection security new This country. East aMiddle against attack an launching for base a as served had area Caspian the time first the was 2 land. Syrian on targets against Sea Caspian the forces launched 26 from military missiles Russian 2015, autumn in Syria in intervention military Russian Atmilitarily co-ordinated the with onset Russia. of Iran’s in the war Syrian participation is increasingly Entente Russia with Military main threat to stability. regional the defeated, being of process the in is Daesh while and henceforth, is influence Iranian hand, other the on allies, Gulf its and US the For enemy, Daesh. ority 5 4 3 inapproprie ministre-iranien-de-la-defense-hossein-dehghan-critique-la-russie-pour-avoir-revele-utiliser-des-bases-aeriennes-iraniennes-en-syrie-cetait- east-34462539/russian-missiles-strike-syria-from-caspian-sea com/persian/iran/2016/08/160817_l03_iran_russia_military_base See “Larij http://memri.fr/2016/08/25/le- at: 2016. Available August 25 on (MEMRI) Institute Research Media East Middle the by cited Statements “Russian missiles strike Syria from Caspian Sea,” BBC News T herme , Clément ā (retrieved 5 January 2017). ni: Ir ni: bi-ma’refat va khodkhah ā n p .

Les relations entre Tehran et Moscou depuis 1979 depuis Moscou et Tehran entre relations Les ā ig ā h nez ā mi dar ekhti dar mi ā r rusie qar ). He likewise stat ). likewise He ā r nad ā de hast,” BBC Persian hast,” de (retrieved 1 June 2017). 1June (retrieved 2 It It (retrieved 2 November 2016). 2November (retrieved ------, 7 October 2016. Available here: www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle- here: 2016. Available , 7October , PUF, Paris, 2012. Paris, , PUF, der to consolidate their interests.” or in information] [this published They politics. ture Syria’s in fu arole play they ensure and Americans the with to negotiate order in them determine and Syria in events influence can they that demonstrate to want They world. the throughout and region the in security of matters all influence can and perpower base, which would which base, be unconstitutional. military Iranian an in forces foreign of tablishment es permanent the envisage not did personnel, tary mili Russian of presence the and equipment military an agreement, which includes stocking Russian explained Larijani es. that the bilateral Russian-Irani purpos pacific even for territory Iranian in bases tary 146Article forbids the establishment of foreign mili Constitution. Iranian the violate not did agreement military this that and bombers Russian refuelling for agreement to atemporary due was it that explaining by soil Iranian on troops foreign of presence the tify to jus attempted Larijani, Ali speaker, parliamentary tions neighbour. with its large northern rela to soothe also but stage, international the on er pow independent an as country his to present only not rejected, Shah the which Iran, in bases military to establish wished 1962. States United after The which allowed a warming of Iranian-Soviet relations adecision territory, Iranian in missiles US of lation instal the forbade Pahlavi, Mohammad-Reza Iran, of Shah Even the soil. foreign on targets to attack ritory ter national its of use the authorize actually not did State Iranian The WarWorld II. since precedented un is agreement military Russian-Iranian this fact, In groups against Sunniparticular jihadist the struggle against terrorism, in presented within the framework of Russian-Iranian , 27 mord ā d 1395 (17 August 2016). Available at: www.bbc. at: d 1395 (17 2016). Available August new co-operation is 3 Conversely, the 4 5

------other words, Rouhani’s campaign promise may run run may promise campaign Rouhani’s words, other In slim. is rights) human and (“terrorism” matters nuclear with associated not sanctions primary lifting US the of hope the fact, In Rouhani. President for factor anegative thus is It President. US as office Trump up took since have intensified to “terrorism” support Iranian of accusations Indeed, a challenge. is Trump the Administration Rouhani, President For Trump The Challenge Conclusion: Daesh. of emergence the in role US’ the out point often Republic Islamic the of today, leaders the and Islam,” “American of leader the being of Arabia Ayatollahare concerned, accused Khomeini Saudi Iranians the as Insofar jihadists. or terrorists as cow byand groups opposition Syrian considered Mos US the between relations the in is proof the count, ac Russian to the According countries. Western and jihadism Sunni between collusion been has there 1980s the Afghanistan, in in mujahidin Afghan West and the between began co-operation since to which, according vision the share governments takfiri as fies quali Iran that groups jihadist Sunni against ticular framework of the struggle against in terrorism, par the within presented is 2016. co-operation new This 2014 between times five and counterpart Russian his with met minister defence Iranian the and to Iran system defence missile S-300 the delivered finally 2016, in war Syrian the in Russia base military mon acom of use the through entente military bilateral the of strengthening to the Parallel security. of terms in volatile is that aregion in unity national ening weak for responsible often is Republic Islamic the by Iranian policymakers show that factionalism in statements contradictory and debate internal The (excommunicators). And finally, the two two the finally, And (excommunicators). ------office as USPresident as office intensified Trump since took up to “terrorism”support have accusationsIndeed, of Iranian Administration isachallenge. For Rouhani, President the Trump egy of economic emergence in a conflict zone. zone. aconflict in emergence economic of egy Western interests is hardly compatible with a strat to hostile strategy aregional pursuing that aware is he case, any In conflicts. in participation on sources Iran’s re spending than rather influence stabilizing a exercising power amediating Iran to make need the on insists President incumbent the policy, gional re of fundamentals the questioning en). Without Yem Syria, (Iraq, wars regional in “proxies” through Iran’s participation on taboo the of lifting the stance, in for allowed, has campaign electoral This gion. reaching diplomatic solutions in re the East Middle for preferable is re-election Rouhani’s case, any In between Iran and European countries. countries. European and Iran between co-operation economic of pursuit the allow could keeps its engagements in the nuclear deal, this if Washington Nonetheless, sanctions. economic ran’s regional policy and the US system of primary Teh between alink is there that is problem The tion. op apossible seem not does Iraq in militias Shiite to or certain to Hezbollah support Iranian ending thority: stopping the ballistic missile or programme au President’s the under not is policy Iran’s regional Moreover, influence. Iran’s regional to counter force of use the of threat the including arhetoric using of strategy Trump the Administration’s against up ------

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2017 133 Geopolitical Turmoil and its Effects in the Mediterranean Region Dossier