NO WATER, NO GROWTH NO WATER, NO GROWTH TARIM RIVER Does Asia have enough water to develop? Does Asia have enough water to develop?

KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE Tarim River is the main river in the Tarim Basin, a desert region between the Tian Shan and Kunlun Mountains. The main river and China Kyrgyzstan TARIM RIVER most of its tributaries originate in the Karakorum and Kunlun Surface Water 1% Surface Water 15% Mountains. It is also the longest inland river in China. Resources Resources

Population 1% Population 1% THE TARIM RIVER BASIN

Length 1,321 km GDP 1% GDP 1% Basin Area 0.93-1.15 million km2 Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water. Annual flow 10-43 billion m3 RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX Flow through China, Kyrgyzstan Runoff mix in the upper Tarim Share of ice & snow 42% of runoff Annual flow estimation DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT): melt in upper reach − the amount River flow/runoffs: Average surface 27 billion m3 of river water that flows in a water resources 3 given time 43bn m − Surface water produced Basin population 11 million long-term average internally: Others Glacier annual volume of surface water Basin GDP in 2015 US$70 billion 58% melt (constant 2010 price) generated by direct runoff from 42% endogenous precipitation Transboundary Yes (surface runoff) and groundwater There is no trans- 10 contributions boundary agreement. − Total renewable surface water: The river has been the sum of the internal renew- shrinking and now Source: China Water Risk based on Gao et al (2010) Source: China Water Risk based on able surface water resources mainly flows within calculation by CAS-IGSNRR using Based on several sources, the contribution of MPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP and the total external renewable China. glacier melt to the runoffs in the Upper Tarim hydrological models surface water resources could reach 42% THE TARIM MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND Total surface water resources Total population Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) Temperature Change (°C) Hydrological Changes (mm/year) 3 (RCP4.5) (RCP4.5) = 27 billion m = 11 million = US$70 billion

2.0 0.6 Snowfall Rainfall Runoff Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan 11% 1% 0.05% 0.4 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.20 0.17 0.01 0 -0.08 -0.10 0.8 -0.26 -0.2

0.4 -0.4 1.17 1.84 China China China 0 -0.6 89% 99% 99.95% 1956-2005 2006-2055 1956-2005 2006-2055

Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are GDP mix Water Use Per Unit GDP (m3/USD) Water use mix expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5.

ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT Services Agriculture Industry Municipal 8% 23% 39% 3% Glaciers in the Tarim: Glacier area shrinkage: Number: 12,664

0.32 Ice reserves: 1,841 km3 3.3% 46x Tarim’s = 574 km2 Three 3,940 and glaciers exist Tarim Indus Gorges between 6,462 masl Between 1960s-1970s Yellow Ganges Yangtze Mekong Dams and 1999/2001 Salween size of Switzerland Industry Irrawaddy Agriculture 43% 69% Amu Danya 58% masl = metres above sea level Glacier area: 17,650 km2 Brahmaputra 3 Source: Shangguan, D. et al. (2009) Water use per capita: 2,055m /pax

For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] Tarim

Legend HKH Glaciers River Basin Major Rivers Cities 300k-5mn 5-10mn 10-15mn

15-20mn

0 100 200km Over 20mn

This map uses UN urban population data. However, if we add rural population and other temporary residents living within the municipal boundary of cities, the total population can be larger. © China Water Risk. Data Source: ICIMOD; Randolph Glacier Inventory; FAO AQUAmaps; Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences