Assessments of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts Into
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WWF Mongolia Programme Office ASSESSMENTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS INTO HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS OF ONON, KHERLEN AND KHALKH RIVER BASINS, MONGOLIA Climate Change in the Onon, Kherlen and Khalkh River Basins ♦ 3 FOREWORD CONTENT This research entitled “Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact Assess- CLIMATE CONDICION OF THE KHERLEN, ments on Headwaters of the Amur/Heilong River Basin and Adaptive/ ONON AND KHALKH RIVER BASINS.......................................................................6 Mitigation, Management” was conducted from July to September 2009 in Mongolian headwaters of Amur/Heilong River Basin - Onon, Kherlen and 1. CLIMATE REGIME – PAST AND PRESENT Khalkh River Basins. The study was initiated and funded by WWF Mon- 1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE..........................................................................................................8 golia Programme Office with support from WWF Netherlands. The study 1.1.1 AIR TEMPERATURE..............................................................................................8 involved researchers and scientists from academic institutions, universi- 1.1.2 PRECIPITATION....................................................................................................10 ties, consulting companies. 1.1.3 EVAPORATION......................................................................................................13 1.1.4 WIND REGIME......................................................................................................13 Presented below contributing authors contact addresses: 1.2 HAZARDOUS PHENOMENA CHANGES.......................................................................15 Natsagdorj L., (PhD) 1.2.1 THUNDER STORMS..............................................................................................15 Senior scientist 1.2.2 DROUGHTS............................................................................................................15 Tel: (976)-9115-7920 1.2.3 DUST AND SAND TORM.......................................................................................16 E-mail: [email protected] 1.3 FACTORS IMPACTING CLIMATE CHANGE.................................................................18 1.3.1 HUMAN (ANTHROPOGENIC) IMPACTS .............................................................18 Batima P., (PhD) Water Authority of Mongolia 2. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS Tel: (976)-8810-1866 2.1 AIR TEMPERATURE.......................................................................................................23 E-mail: [email protected] 2.2 PRECIPITATION.............................................................................................................29 2.3 POTENTIAL EVAPORATION AND RIVER DISCHARGES................... ........................33 Tumursukh D., 3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES Institute of Geoecology, Mongolian Academy of Sciences 3.1 WATER SYSTEM DISTRIBUTION.................................................................................34 Tel: (976)-9923-1520 3.2 HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS.........................................................................34 E-mail: [email protected] 3.3 WATER RESOURCES......................................................................................................35 3.4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WATER ENVIRONMENT CHANGE AND Ulziisaikhan B., CLIMATE CHANGE.........................................................................................................36 WWF Mongolia Programme Office and University of Technology and Science of Mongolia 4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RIVER ECOSYSTEMS Tel: (976)-9514-1282 4.1 NATURAL ZONES AND PERMAFROST........................................................................41 E-mail: [email protected] 4.2. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECOSYSTEM AND SOCIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.........................................................................................44 Mijiddorj R., (PhD) University of Technology and Science of Mongolia 5. ADAPTATION MEASURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE [email protected] ANNEX REFERENCES Editors team: Mijiddorj R., (PhD) University of Technology and Science of Mongolia Batnasan N., (PhD) WWF Mongolia Programme Office (former) Batkhuyag B., (PhD) WWF Mongolia Programme Office Alana M.Wilson Climate change researcher Cover photo by B.Gankhuyag 4 ♦ Climate Change in the Onon, Kherlen and Khalkh River Basins Climate Change in the Onon, Kherlen and Khalkh River Basins ♦ 5 Figure 1.11 Summer locations of herder families Figure 1.12 Winter locations of herder families TABLES Figure 1.13 Irrigation system – upper Choibalsan Figure 2.1a Annual mean air temperature distribution of Mongolia, 1961-1990 Figure 2.1b Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2020 by ECHAM model Table 1.0 Meteorological stations data of which used for the study Figure 2.1c Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2050 by ECHAM model Table 1.1 Mean air temperature norm of some meteorological stations from eastern Mongolia (av- Figure 2.1d Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2080 by ECHAM model erages of 1961-1990) Figure 2.1e Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2020 by HADLEY model Table1.2 Averages of monthly mean air temperature of Choibalsan station by different time peri- Figure 2.1f Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2050 by HADLEY model ods Figure 2.1g Annual mean air temperature distribution, projected for 2080 by HADLEY model Table 1.3 Averages of hot days with air temperature greater than 300С Figure 2.1h Air temperature and precipitation of eastern region of Mongolia Table 1.4 Mean monthly and annual precipitation norms of some meteorological stations from Figure 2.2a Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2020 by ECHAM model eastern Mongolia, in mm (1961-1990). Figure 2.2b Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2050 by ECHAM model Table 1.5 Mean precipitation of last 10 years measured at meteorological stations (1998-2007). Figure 2.2c Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2080 by ECHAM model Table 1.6 Monthly and annual mean wind velocity (m/s) Figure 2.2d Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2020 by HADLEY model Table 1.7 Monthly and annual averages of number of days with wind storms Figure 2.2e Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2050 by HADLEY model Table 1.8 Perennial averages of number of days with sandstorms Figure 2.2f Distribution of annual total precipitation projected for 2080 by HADLEY model Table 1.9 Perennial averages of number of days with soft sandstorms Figure 3.1 Trend of water resources at the Khalkh river Table 1.10 Use of irrigation system area with engineering structures Figure 3.2 Trend of water resources at the Kherlen river Table 1.11 Potential water resources for exploitation (by aimags, km3/year) Figure 3.3 Trend of water resources at the Onon river Table 1.12 Newly constructed and renovated groundwater wells (source: Ministry of Food, Agricul- Figure 3.4a Changes in October-November temperature and ice ture and Light Industry) Figure 3.4b Changes in river ice breakup dates in Khalkh river Table 2.1a Comparison of mean air temperatures of Onon, Kherlen and Khalkh rivers from 1961 to Figure 3.4c Changes of ice cover depth in Onon river 1990 with 2020, 2050 and 2080 year projections. By ECHAM and HADLEY models Figure 4.1a Northern border shift of desert zone (by Qz value) Table 2.2a Comparison of precipitation in the Onon, Kherlen and Khalkh River Basins from 1961 to Figure 4.1b The average of yearly air temperature +3oC shift line (By situation of year 1991, 2040, 1990 with 2020, 2050 and 2080 year projections. By ECHAM and HADLEY models 2070 and 2100) Table 3.1a Sensitivity of river runoff to changes in temperature and precipitation Figure 4.2 Long-term permafrost distribution in Mongolia (1-continuous and discontinuous per- (changes in %) mafrost, 2-insular and sparsely insular permafrost, 3-sporadic permafrost and 4-sea- Table 3.1b River runoff to changes by ECHAM A2 and HadCM A2 sonally frozen) Table 4.1 Value of Qz lines, showing boundary of desert and steppe zones Figure 4.3a Preliminary estimated distribution borders of Mongolian permafrost in 2020 Table 4.2 Decrease of Mongolian permafrost distribution, calculated by General Circulation Mod- Figure 4.3b Preliminary estimated distribution borders of Mongolian permafrost in 2050 els (in %) Figure 4.3c Preliminary estimated distribution borders of Mongolian permafrost in 2080 Table 4.3 Cross analyses of climate change impacts and sensitivity assessment Figure 4.4 Situation of relationship between system components Table 6.1 Greenhouse gas content released from steppe fire occurred in eastern Mongolia Figure 5.1 Soums’ goat increases in the Onon and Kherlen River Basin (1991-2005) Table 6.2 Greenhouse gas content released from 1 kм2 steppe fire area Figure 5.2 Vegetation dry biomass content in fenced and non-fenced areas of Dadal soum, Khentii aimag (centner ql /ha, 1995-2007) Figure 6.1 Map of areas burnt by steppe fire from October 2003 Figure 6.2 Greenhouse gases (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, SO2) released from steppe fire in October 2003 FIGURES and distribution of total aerosol (PM2.5) Figure 1.1 Long-term trend of annual mean air temperatures, averaged within eastern region of Mongolia Figure 1.2 Long-term trend of winter mean air temperatures, averaged within eastern region Figure 1.3 Long-term trend of summer mean air temperatures,