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Management Report 2017

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Management Report 2017 MANAGEMENT REPORT 2017 CONTENTS Economic growth 6 World Africa Morocco Banking and financial environment 12 Africa Morocco Analysis of Group results 18 Business activity in Morocco Parent-company results Allocation of net income Business activity & results of main subsidiaries Consolidated results Global risk management 30 Mission and organization of Global Risk Management General measures Credit risk Market risk Country risk Operational risk and BCP Risk Management Asset-liability management Pillar III: Risks and capital adequacy 56 RESOLUTIONS OF THE ORDINARY GENERAL MEETING 66 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 68 PARENT-COMPANY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 100 CONTACTS 124 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK: AN INTERNATIONAL BANKING AND FINANCIAL GROUP Europe North Africa CAEMC WAEMU 6 Management Report Economic environment World : global GDP growth Global business activity showed signs of strengthening in In Japan, GDP rose 1.8% in 2017, thanks to stronger global 2017. Global GDP growth in 2017 rose 3.7% and is expected to demand and a renewal in public investment. increase by 3.9% in 2018, according to the latest forecast of the GDP growth in developing countries came to 4.7% in 2017 and International Monetary Fund (IMF). This recovery is underpinned is expected to reach 4.9% in 2018. This performance is due by the improved macroeconomic outlook of developed countries mainly to the Russian economy (1.8% in 2017, vs. –0.2% in and emerging markets, which are benefiting from various 2016) and to the Brazilian economy (1.1% in 2017 vs. –3.5% monetary and budgetary measures intended to boost the in 2016). Both countries are gradually emerging from their economy, and by a significant rise in commercial trade. recessions. Among developed countries, GDP growth in the eurozone However, the outlook varies significantly from one country to came to 2.4% in 2017, compared with 1.8% in 2016. This another. Emerging countries in Asia enjoyed continuing robust performance was attributable mainly to core member states, GDP growth of 6.5% in 2017, while in sub-Saharan Africa GDP especially Germany (2.5%), France (1.8%), and Italy (1.6%). growth came to 2.7% in 2017, compared with 1.4% in 2016. In the United States, economic growth continued its positive By contrast, the Middle East must confront lower oil prices, trend in 2017, with a rise of 2.3% driven by recovery in consumer fallout from geopolitical tensions, and civil strife within several spending and business investment. By contrast, the British countries. GDP growth in the Middle East totaled 2.5% in 2017, economy slowed slightly (1.7%) because of the uncertainty compared with 4.9% in 2016. surrounding Brexit. GDP GROWTH 2016 2017 2018F World 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% Developed countries 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% Eurozone 1.8% 2.4% 2.2% France 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% Germany 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% Spain 3.3% 3.1% 2.4% United Kingdom 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% United States 1.5% 2.3% 2.7% Japan 0.9% 1.8% 1.2% Emerging and developing countries 4.4% 4.7% 4.9% North Africa and Middle East 4.9% 2.5% 3.6% Sub-Saharan Africa 1.4% 2.7% 3.3% Source : IMF (January 2018) Monetary policy Inflation The European Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged Inflation has increased in developed countries, where the in 2017, with interest rates at 0%. The ECB decided to reduce consumer price index rose 1.7% in 2017, compared with 0.8% its monthly net purchases to 30 billion from January 2018 until in 2016. September 2018. In emerging economies, inflation was unchanged in 2017 The Fed raised its federal funds rate twice in 2017, first by 25 (4.1%). bp in June and again by 25 bp in December, to a target range of 1.25%–1.5%. By maintaining an accommodating monetary Oil market policy, the Fed creates favorable conditions for the job market After declining in the first half of 2017, oil prices rose to $64.40 and for a sustainable return to a 2% inflation rate. in December 2017, a three-year high. These changes were due In addition, the Bank of England decided at its meeting of mainly to production disruptions in the North Sea and Libya. November 2, and for the first time in a decade, to raise interest rates by 25 bp, to 0.5%. MANAGEMENT REPORT ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 2017 Change in Brent prices in 2017 (USD) Key economic indicators, by country Budget Current account 62.7 64.4 GDP (%) Inflation (%) balance (%) balance (%) 54.6 54.9 56.2 57.5 51.6 52.4 50.3 51.7 F F F F 46.4 48.5 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Tunisia 2.3 3.0 4.5 4.4 -5.9 -5.3 -8.7 -8.4 Mauritania 3.8 3.0 2.1 3.7 -0.6 -1.8 -14.2 -9.6 Libya 55.1 31.2 32.8 32.1 -43.0 -23.3 1.8 9.8 Egypt 4.1 4.5 29.9 13.0 -9.5 -7.3 -5.9 -3.8 IMF, October 2017 The region’s budget deficit came to –11.1% in 2017 (compared Jul-17 Jan.-17 Feb.-17 Mar.-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep.-17 Oct.-17 Nov.-17 Dec.-17 with –13.5% in 2016), weakened by a high budget balance in Libya (–43.0% in 2017). Inflation was 10.3% in 2017, compared with 8.1% in 2016. Africa WAEMU According to the latest figures from the African Development Surface area Population GDP per capita (2017 DATA) Bank, Africa experienced moderate economic growth of 3.4% in (km2) (m) (USD) 2017, and is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2018F. This recovery Benin 112,622 11.4 826 was largely attributable to a hike in commodities prices that Burkina Faso 274,200 18.9 696 Ivory Coast 322,463 25.0 1,599 began in 2016. Niger 1,267,000 18.8 421 Regional growth rates, however, remain uneven. Mali 1,240,192 18.9 794 Senegal 196,722 16.1 998 Economic indicators in Africa, by region Togo 56,785 7.7 622 IMF, October 2017 GDP (%) Inflation (%) 2017 2018F 2017 2018F ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Africa 3.4% 4.3% 9.8% 8.3% According to the IMF, growth of the West African Economic and Central Africa 2.2% 3.8% 2.2% 2.4% East Africa 5.7% 6.0% 9.9% 8.9% Monetary Union (WAEMU) continues at a steady pace. GDP rose 6.4% North Africa 3.4% 3.7% 10.3% 8.2% in 2017, compared with 6.3% in 2016. This solid performance is Southern Africa 1.9% 2.6% 8.7% 7.7% attributable to positive results in the primary sector, to momentum West Africa 3.5% 5.5% 11.4% 9.8% AfDB- May 2017 in building and public works, and to ongoing growth in transport and communications. The following section describes the main changes in 2017 in the economic environments of the countries where Attijariwafa bank Key economic indicators by country Budget Current account does business. GDP (%) Inflation (%) balance (%) balance (%) 2017 2018F 2017 2018F 2017 2018F 2017 2018F North africa Benin 5.4 6.0 2.0 2.1 -6.1 -4.0 -8.7 -7.1 (2017 DATA) Surface area (km2) Population (m) GDP per capita (USD) Burkina Faso 6.4 6.5 1.5 2.0 -5.5 -4.6 -7.2 -7.1 Tunisia 163,610 11.3 3,517 Ivory Coast 7.6 7.3 1.0 2.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.9 -2.8 Mauritania 1,030,700 3.9 1,284 Niger 4.2 4.7 1.0 2.1 -7.5 -6.2 -18.6 -18.3 Libya 1,759,540 6.4 5,166 Mali 5.3 5.0 0.2 1.2 -3.5 -3.3 -7.0 -5.6 Egypt 1,001,450 92.3 3,685 Senegal 6.8 7.0 2.1 2.2 -3.7 -3.0 -5.1 -5.2 IMF, October 2017 Togo 5.0 5.3 0.8 1.2 -4.6 -2.7 -8.3 -7.3 IMF, October 2017 Economic environment The region’s inflation rate came to 1.2%, aided by stable prices In North Africa, GDP growth is improving and should reach 3.4% and good harvests in most member states. The budget deficit in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, according to the AfDB. However, contracted 4.7% in 2017. regional growth remains moderate because of political unrest and the level of local oil production. The monetary policy committee decided in 2017 to leave unchanged (2.5%) the minimum interest rate of invitations to tender for In 2017, oil-exporting countries should achieve GDP growth of liquidity operations, and to leave the marginal discount rate 3.0%, due in part to economic growth in Libya. The midyear at 4.50%. The ratio for legal reserves applicable to the Union’s rise in Libyan oil production capacity (1 million barrels per day banks was reduced in March 2017 from 5% to 3%. in 2017, compared with 0.4 million a year earlier) resulted in estimated GDP growth for 2017 of 55.1%, compared with CAEMC –3.0% in 2016). Surface area Population GDP per capita (2017 DATA) (km2) (m) (USD) Oil-importing countries also enhance regional growth (4.0% Cameroon 475,440 24.3 1,263 in 2017 vs. 3.0% in 2016), with positive trends in Egypt Congo 342,000 4.3 1,794 (4.1% in 2017), Tunisia (2.3% in 2017), and Morocco (4.0% Gabon 267,667 1.9 7,584 in 2017).
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