The future of Human Resources A glimpse into the future The best way to predict the future is to create it.
Peter Drucker
02
The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach §¨¥¢©¥¢ S ¡¢£¤¥¦ 04 Critical uncertainties 06 Four possible scenarios for the future 08 Scenario personas 12 Conclusions and outlook 16 Making sense of 2030 18 Contacts 20
03 04 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Scenario thinking
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The global economy is continually being early stage, an understanding of possible In an Old School in a New Sharing World , VKDNHQE\GLVUXSWLYHIRUFHVWKDWZLOODHFW Human Resources in the future is imperative. employers are interchangeable. At the same both social and professional life. Not only will time, stagnating economic development and the day-to-day work of employees and the The challenge is therefore to capture the GLɝFXOWLHVLQDXWRPDWLQJ+5VROXWLRQVKDYH tools they use change, but also entire complex interaction between employee made employers reluctant to invest in their organizational processes, such as the way preferences and employer realities in workforce. FRPSDQLHVȴQGUHZDUGDQGUHWDLQWDOHQW7KH GLHUHQWWHFKQRORJLFDOVHWWLQJV7KLVZLOOKHOS days of Human Resources (HR) as we know it to identify concrete implications and develop In the Only Humanity Matters scenario, at present may be numbered. suitable strategic options. companies are personal career partners for their employees. The return to old values and For example, shifts in the role and importance Scenario design provides the basis for more stringent data regulations paired with a of unions in the business world, employee decision-making in view of uncertainty by positive economic outlook results in preferences regarding employers and analyzing and structuring a multitude of personalized HR processes where human working models, and autonomy in the job, will driving forces in condensed critical interaction is still the key. impact relationships between employers and uncertainties that will shape the future and HPSOR\HHVDQGWKXVDHFW+XPDQ have the potential to drive it into one All of these scenarios demonstrate plausible Resources. direction or the other. Based on these critical versions of how the evolution of HR solutions uncertainties, scenarios are a means for could play out. Let’s explore each scenario in At the same time, the increasing degree of reducing their complex interaction. They are more detail to better understand the process automation has implications for narratives of alternative but thinkable futures implications. employees' data security and privacy, and also that provide a sound basis for developing for the level of specialization required of HR robust, future-proof strategies for anybody Enjoy the ride, employees and investment in the HR with ties to Human Resources. Your department. Together with Deloitte experts and HR Thus, the questions that need to be answered professionals we have developed four are: what will the relationships between plausible scenarios to illustrate what Human employers and employees look like in the Resources might look like in 2030. future? And what will be the implications for Human Resources? In the HR 4.0 scenario, most HR solutions are highly automated and employers are Whatever the future holds, it will have far- investing in recruiting and retaining the best reaching consequences for the future of HR WDOHQW7KLVOHDGVWRFXVWRPL]HGRHULQJVDQG departments across industries and countries, a thriving relationship between employers and for the environment people work in. The and employees. objective of this study is to address these questions in a structured and thorough In Welcome to 1984 , the relationship manner and with a focus on HR issues - well between employers and employees has been knowing that there are many more facets to reduced to a mere exchange of work for the future of work that go beyond the scope money. Combined with a high level of of this study. automation in the HR department, this leads to standardized, low cost HR solutions. To navigate the changing HR landscape and respond to both opportunities and risks at an
05 Critical uncertainties
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At the outset of our exercise, we developed a the HR department, and the role of unions in holistic list of future-relevant trends and processes related to topics such as GULYHUVWKDWKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRDHFW FRPSHQVDWLRQEHQHȴWVRUWLPHDQG Human Resources in the future. This was attendance of employees, alter the done with the help of expert interviews and environment in which relationships between $UWLȴFLDOΖQWHOOLJHQFH $Ζ EDVHGQDWXUDO employees and employers evolve. language processing algorithms. These On the other hand, the nature of Human LGHQWLȴHGGULYHUVZHUHWKHQFOXVWHUHGLQWR Resources in the future will be highly social, technological, economic, dependent on the impact of technological environmental, and political factors and rated progress. Advances in technology and by subject-matter experts as to their degree digitalization have led to the rise of of uncertainty and their impact on Human automated and machine-controlled Resources. The resulting list of prioritized ZRUNȵRZVWKDWKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRGLVUXSW drivers formed the basis of our scenario HR departments. For instance, machine analysis, since it enabled the determination of learning and AI may replace or enhance WKHPRVWFULWLFDODQGLQȵXHQWLDOXQFHUWDLQWLHV increasingly complex HR-related tasks, while in the context of Human Resources. FORXGVWRUDJHFDQOHDGWRPRUHȵH[LELOLW\
$FFRUGLQJWRRXUH[SHUWVȇUDQNLQJWKHȴUVW Nevertheless, the continuing automation of critical uncertainty that will determine the processes is not carved in stone. Firstly, it future of Human Resources is the quality of depends largely on the complexity of the employee-employer relationships. The quality tasks related to HR and whether state-of-the- of relationships can either improve in terms of art technologies allow large-scale and reliable stronger, more long-lasting relationships, automation. Furthermore, since HR where the employer is perceived as a trusted departments handle highly sensitive partner in personal career development. Or employee data, data privacy regulations, and on the other hand, the quality of the successful encryption of data gain relationships can decline as they become less importance. The level of investment in HR stable and more fragile, while the role of the departments and the size and specialization employer is reduced to a provider of work. of HR teams will further determine the level of automation in the future. The drivers underlying this critical uncertainty As a result, the second critical uncertainty of include the nature and balance between our scenario framework is represented by the supply and demand for work, the degree of automation of HR processes with either employee loyalty, and the importance of a automation of only selected repetitive tasks, healthy work-life balance. Furthermore, the as the competitive pressure to increase degree to which employees strive for HɝFLHQF\LVORZRUODUJHVFDOHDXWRPDWLRQ independence in their professional lives, as across the department, due to heavy ZHOODVWKHGHJUHHRIGLYHUVLȴFDWLRQLQWKHLU competitive pressure to reduce costs and GDLO\MREVDQGWDVNVZLOOGLUHFWO\DHFWWKH LQFUHDVHHɝFLHQF\ expectations towards the employer in general ZKLOH+5VROXWLRQVLQSDUWLFXODUDHFWWKH The combination of both critical uncertainties expectations towards HR departments. Lastly, results in four plausible but highly distinct the level of transparency of processes within visions of the future which are illustrated here.
06 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Fig. 1 – Scenario matrix to describe the future of Human Resources
The company as a personal career partner
Only humanity matters HR 4.0
Low level Level of automation Level of automation High level of auto- of auto- mation mation Quality of employer-employee relationship
Old school in a new The company as one of Welcome to 1984 sharing wolrd many workplace providers
07 Four possible scenarios for the future The days of Human Resources as we know it today may be numbered
HR 4.0 Spurred by economic growth and easy access RHUHGDWUHODWLYHO\ORZFRVWWKDQNVWRWKH to capital, companies have heavily invested in automation of HR solutions. These needs are new technologies. The automation of HDVLO\LGHQWLȴHGDVHPSOR\HHVDUHZLOOLQJWR High level of automation complex tasks in this world has materialized share sensitive data - new encryption and the company as a faster than expected. While many jobs have technologies have brought the level of data been replaced by machines, the few security to a new height and the acceptance personal career partner remaining jobs became more challenging, but of digitalization has soared. Employees are DWWKHVDPHWLPHWKHVXSSO\RITXDOLȴHG generally loyal to their employer and identify workers exceeds demand for it. themselves with the company they work for.
In HR departments, new technologies such as All in all, employers have become the one AI and Virtual Reality (VR) are commonly trusted partner for personal career applied to build close, long-lasting development. Although unions openly criticize relationships with employees. In their day-to- the accumulation of sensitive data within HR day work, employees have more touchpoints GLYLVLRQVWKHLUVLJQLȴFDQFHKDVGHFOLQHGDV with the HR department than ever. Services employers have taken over the helm. UDQJLQJIURPFRPSHQVDWLRQDQGEHQHȴWVWR training and development are customized to perfectly match the employee’s needs, and
08 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Welcome to 1984 Across industries, competitive pressure has HRUWVDQGȴQGLQJDQGUHFUXLWLQJWKHEHVW increased tremendously and made talent. companies refocus on maximizing High level of automation shareholder value in the short term. Their All in all, the relationship between employers and the company as one goal is therefore to extract the most value out and employees is weak in this scenario. of the human capital they have employed. To Companies prefer to invest in machines of many workplace do this, employers have invested heavily in rather than in humans, and use advanced providers technology whenever proven track records data analytics to design employment signaled large savings. They downscaled their contracts that optimize the relationship HR departments’ workforce to a minimum, between incentive and performance. At the leaving room only for highly skilled specialists same time, employees do not feel to manage the technology that executes appreciated and change employers often. highly standardized HR processes. Individuals thus want to be independent of their employer, with whom they only Overall, companies have successfully exchange money for work. In the end, automated most jobs to facilitate large-scale employees increasingly turn to unions to be cost cutting, but managed to do so without their partner in HR-related negotiations. disappointing their customers.
For many tasks, specialist talent is required DQGLVRIWHQGLɝFXOWWRȴQGDPLGJHQHUDOLVW talent. Many companies are focusing their
09 Old school in a new After a multitude of hacker attacks revealed manpower is necessary to accomplish the sharing world the low level of data security in many HR large number of repetitive tasks. Still, HR departments, buzz-words such as “value- policies are shareholder driven: HR EDVHGFRPSHQVDWLRQȋȊG\QDPLFEHQHȴWVȋDQG employees do not focus on the individual and Low level of automation similar ideas have failed to materialize due to his or her personal development, but rather and the company as one the strict data privacy laws that followed these on matching supply and demand at the data breaches. At the same time, the lack of lowest cost, resulting for example in a low of many workplace GDWDVHFXULW\KDVGHP\VWLȴHGWKHSURPLVHVRI OHYHORIWUDLQLQJDQGLQȵH[LEOHFRPSHQVDWLRQ providers economic growth fueled by breakthroughs in policies. Extremely mass-customized HR $UWLȴFLDOΖQWHOOLJHQFHDQGSXWWKHEUDNHVRQ solutions were, are and will be the success the investment frenzy. Most jobs and tasks factor for developing and retaining talent. have not changed much in the last ten years. On the other hand, demographic change has In the end, employees think of companies led to an imbalance in the demand and only as a provider of a job that can easily be supply of work. Many companies struggle to FKDQJHGUHVXOWLQJLQDKLJKOHYHORIȵXFWXDWLRQ ȴQGWKHEHVWWDOHQW across the workforce.
HR departments are still among the largest teams in most companies, and a high level of
10 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Only humanity matters In this scenario, the economy has employers to build a close relationship with experienced the collapse of trade barriers their workforce and to promote the personal and a return to old values. At the same time, development of each employee. Employees Low level of automation WKHULVHRI$UWLȴFLDOΖQWHOOLJHQFHKDVEHHQ feel appreciated and reward their employers and the company as a interrupted abruptly by the introduction of with loyalty, performance, and a renunciation more stringent data regulations. Finding the of unions. personal career partner talent with the necessary skill requirement is easy, companies focus their energy on All in all, HR processes are people-driven, and retaining the best people. For most so is the zeitgeist of HR. After all, a machine companies, business is still a people business, cannot replace a good conversation. both externally and internally.
Thus, most companies are reluctant to invest in a technological revolution in the HR department. They rather rely on a large HR workforce that understands the needs of their employees – be it customized training SURJUDPVȵH[LEOHZRUNLQJPRGHOVRUJOREDO mobility solutions. Doing this enables
11 Scenario personas Based on our scenarios, we have designed four personas for HR in 2030
HR 4.0 Patrick is a 34-year-old software developer. local community, and value their work-life Driven by a triad of economic growth, skill balance. In his free time, he regularly joins the shortage, and cost-pressure driven ȴUPȇVUXQQLQJWHDPZKLFKPHHWVHYHU\ "My work is my life and the DXWRPDWLRQKLVSURȴOHLVLQGHPDQGLQWKH morning. For him, the transition between opportunities I have are labor market. His negotiating strength with his private and professional life is smooth – employer is thus mirrored in his employment however, the blurring boundaries sometimes priceless" contract: open-ended with good pay and full PDNHLWGLɝFXOWWRGHYHORSWUXHIULHQGVKLSV ȵH[LELOLW\WRDFFRPPRGDWHKLVQHHGV9LUWXDO In general, he values dedication, loyalty, and training , AI-based performance management, performance. He is not reluctant to share dedicated career development programs, and private data with others, but sometimes he retirement schedules are included as well, feels that the automated performance and he is eager to make full use of what his measurement systems may not forgive him if FRPSDQ\RHUV he should have a bad day. Knowing this and WKDWWKHVNLOOVHWZLOOEHWKHRQO\GLHUHQWLDWRU His job promotes a sense of security in him in the future, he worries about his children: and he caters for his family accordingly. Eight ZLOOWKHLUVNLOOVEHVXɝFLHQWWRȴQGD JRRG years ago, he married his high-school job? sweetheart, Julia, and together they have twins. Both are strongly engaged within their The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Welcome to 1984 Johanna is 46 years old and a customer her ex-husband, of their ten-year-old son. His experience (CX) expert with a computer poor grades and the trouble he causes at engineering background as well as a PhD in school worry her. "Right now, I need to focus behavioral sciences. She is a member of on my career - everything various CX initiatives across the globe, and her Johanna is an introvert and driven by the will expertise is in high demand. Thus, she knows WRSHUIRUPEXWLVVWUXJJOLQJZLWKȴQGLQJD else comes second" her market value and can assert her salary sustainable work-life balance and having a claims. Training and work-related close relationship with her son. In the little development programs however are often free time she gets, she likes to do yoga. In QRWRHUHGE\HPSOR\HUVRUDUHKLJKO\ former days, she thought about joining the dependent on the results of automated union as many of her peers did, but as one of performance management systems. This is WKHIHZSHRSOHWKDWEHQHȴWWHGIURPWKH mainly driven by the competitive pressure to technology investment and cost-saving UHGXFHFRVWDQGLQFUHDVHHɝFLHQF\ programs, she could not see the advantage .
Like most of her peers, she rarely spends more than two years with the same employer DQGLVZLOOLQJWROHDYHWKHȴUPIRUDEHWWHU RHUHYHQLIVKHKDVWRUHORFDWHRUFRPPXWH at the weekends. Her private life is optimized accordingly and kept entirely separate from her professional life. She shares custody, with Old school in a new Anne is 28 years old and fascinated by human do. Still, she knows that she could be replaced sharing world interactions. This interest made her study easily in future as soon as competitive psychology and work in Human Resources. pressure increases and thus wonders She feels that the repetitiveness of her work sometimes whether she should go the extra "I work to live - still, I want would bother her less if she believed in the mile more often. In contrast, many of her to feel appreciated and purpose her job, which is to oversee training FROOHDJXHVDUHZLOOLQJWRVDFULȴFHWKHLUVSDUH policies, as the purpose of the training is to time for their job. Furthermore, recent cyber- others to feel comfortable" increase productivity, but not to develop attacks made her warier when it comes to employees. At work, she wants to be the using technology, both at work and at home. O\QFKSLQRIWKHȴUP\HWLQWHUQDOSROLFLHV prevent her from doing so. Nevertheless, Recently she married Martin, a carpenter. everybody in the department knows and likes They are both highly involved in the do-it- her. yourself movement and are thinking about having kids soon. However, job insecurity and 6KHKDVEHHQZLWKRWKHUȴUPVEHIRUHEXW the poor economy make her hesitate to never felt appreciated as an employee. She is follow through with their plan. hence reluctant to go above and beyond for her employer, and is aware that her performance at work is not the best she can The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Only humanity matters Jan is 36 years old and studied design. As a he met his current girlfriend, Janine, who creative person he likes to establish a deep works in the HR department and whom he connection with other people to inspire his plans to marry soon. They both identify with "Work without creativity thinking. He works in the marketing the company they work for and decline and a human touch is department of a large fast-moving consumer H[WHUQDORHUVΖQWKHLUIUHHWLPHWKH\OLNHWR JRRGVȴUP+LVEDFNJURXQGLQGHVLJQKHOSV hike and to go skiing and appreciate their possible, but pointless" him to cater to the customers’ desire for healthy work-life balance. personalized products. He is good at his job, and knows that his employer is willing to Sometimes he worries about their job DFFRPPRGDWHKLVGHPDQGVE\RHULQJDKLJK security as productivity is expected to OHYHORIȵH[LELOLW\HJZKHQLWFRPHVWROLIH increase and large-scale automation would cycle-dependent working models and UHQGHUWKHLUZRUNVXSHUȵXRXV training. As cost pressure is low, companies FDQDRUGWRWUHDWWKHLUHPSOR\HHV generously.
He has a good relationship with his colleagues and participates in many company events outside working hours. At one of these events Conclusions and outlook
The future of Human Resources will have tremendous impact not only on the workforce, but also on the societal and business sphere
/RRNLQJDWWKHȴQDOVHWRIVFHQDULRVZKDWPD\ arrangements within the company, the HYLGHQFHIURPWKHȴHOGVRIEHKDYLRUDO VWULNHWKHUHDGHUȴUVWLVKRZGLYHUJHQWO\WKH scenarios Old school in a new sharing economics and neuroscience. futures of HR may play out because of world and Welcome to 1984 may require a technological change and the evolution of the more dedicated approach to knowledge In the behavioral part of this study, more relationship between employees and PDQDJHPHQWWRKDQGOHȵXFWXDWLRQZLWKLQWKH than 200 HR experts from around the world employers. company. In this way, each scenario entails a were asked to participate in a behavioral GLHUHQWRSWLPDODSSURDFKWRWKH economics experiment whose aim was to The four scenarios paint highly divergent organizational setup to manage risks and measure the impact of the scenarios on pictures of the future, yet they each have opportunities that may arise in the future. employee performance. To do this, each distinct implications for decision-makers participant watched a video depicting the within corporations that go beyond the pure In the end, what they all have in common is world of one the four scenarios and was management of Human Resources. While the that the implications of each scenario depend afterwards asked to perform a task that scenarios Only humanity matters and HR to a large extent on how people perceive and required concentration. 4.0 may call for the development of a diverse experience their environment . Thus, to better and individualized set of career options and understand employee behavior and emotions 7KHGLHUHQWSHUIRUPDQFHOHYHOVDFURVVWKH PRUHȵH[LEOHZRUNLQJPRGHOVDQGFRQWUDFWXDO in each scenario, we collected empirical four scenarios revealed that a high level of
16 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
automation in HR processes was associated determined as motivating factors. On the also show the importance of aligning ZLWKKLJKHUSHUIRUPDQFHEXWWKHHHFWRID other hand, automated access to non-work- emotions and behavioral incentives to good relationship between employers and related information, loss of employee privacy, optimize workforce performance and employees was of little value on its own. DQGVWDQGDUGL]HG+5VROXWLRQVVLJQLȴFDQWO\ motivation. decreased motivational levels. The emotional reaction to the scenarios was 7KHVHH[SHULPHQWVRIFRXUVHRHURQO\D then measured by assessing the brain activity Taken together, these experiments indicate snapshot of the current view of the role of HR of ten participants who were given a detailed that high performers might prefer to be and the optimal level of automation, and it description of each scenario. assessed by an automated system to remains to be seen in what direction the minimize the impact of personal relationships world of Human Resources will eventually Our neuroscience experiment indicates a on their evaluations. Median performers on evolve. general preference for personalized HR the contrary might prefer to be assessed by a solutions and the rejection of excessive person to compensate for the potential Nevertheless – already today we can observe automation. Furthermore, a high level of data performance gap through establishing a players placing bets on how the future will privacy and the notion of HR as a supporting personal relationship with their evaluator. At a play out. What bets are you willing to make? role in professional development were higher level, the results of the experiments
17 Making sense of 2030
Introduction to scenario design and Economical, Environmental and Political narratives by using the previously investigated methodology forces. drivers that became characters in the Since most issues involve more than one of developed stories. It is not our goal to tell four The methodology of this study on the future these categories, they are only handles. To GLHUHQWVWRULHVRQHRIZKLFKȃZHKRSHDV of Human Resources is based on earlier derive our driver list, we also conducted IXWXULVWVȃZLOOEHWUXH:HUHFRJQL]HLQVWHDG achievements developed by Deloitte. A seven- expert workshops using CLV Deep View, an that the real future will not conform to any step scenario development approach (see AI-based trend-sensing and analysis machine. one of the four scenarios, but that it will LPDJH DSSOLHVWKHJXLGLQJVFLHQWLȴFSULQFLSOHV CLV Deep View helps to avoid the bias of the contain elements of all our scenarios. Our of objectivity, reliability, and validity. The study traditional approach, which often has a built- goal is to pin down the corners of the is the outcome of a series of workshops in tendency based on the character, mood, or plausible futures. These corners are involving HR experts from the Deloitte EMEA preferences of the scenarists. H[DJJHUDWHGȃWKHRXWHUOLPLWVRIZKDWLV network as well as experienced scenario plausible. Thus, our scenarios will have a near practitioners from the Center for the Long $VDSDUWRIWKHZRUNVKRSVHULHVZHLGHQWLȴHG caricature quality. View (CLV). in a third step the critical uncertainties for the focal question. Not all driving forces are Scenario design starts by identifying the focal uncertain, some may be predetermined. question of the underlying issue. Since we These are the trends already in the pipeline, FRXOGWHOODQLQȴQLWHQXPEHURIGLHUHQW XQOLNHO\WRYDU\VLJQLȴFDQWO\LQDQ\RIWKH stories about the future of the Human scenarios. Critical uncertainties are driving 5HVRXUFHVVHFWRUZHȴUVWKDGWRDJUHHRQ forces with the potential to tip the future in the issue or strategic challenge we wanted to one direction or another. They have two address. This enabled us to support the fundamental characteristics: they have an decision-making of our key Human Resources unusually high impact and are uncommonly clients in an appropriate way. Scenarios are uncertain or volatile. Initially, all uncertainties tools for shedding light on the strategic appear unique, but by stepping back, we can challenge, while the focal question sets the reduce bundles of uncertainties to bundles scope of the scenarios. In the present case that serve as the building blocks for creating we focused on the question “What will our scenario sets. Human Resources departments look like in 2030?” The scenario framework was developed in the next step by focusing the entire list of related Scenarios are a way of understanding the uncertainties into two orthogonal axes. We dynamics that shape the future. Therefore, in WKHQGHȴQHGDPDWUL[FRQVLVWLQJRIFURVVLQJ the second step, we pinpoint the forces that and independent axes that allowed us to drive the focal questions. Driving forces are GHȴQHIRXUYHU\GLHUHQWEXWSODXVLEOH fundamental sources of future change. They quadrants of uncertainty. In the underlying shape the course of events and history and study, we used the quality of the relationship dramatically enhance our ability to imagine between employers and employees and the future scenarios. These drivers can be level of automation as critical uncertainties. JURXSHGLQWRȴYHFDWHJRULHVNQRZQDV67((3 forces, as they consist of Social, Technological, ΖQWKHȴIWKVWHSZHGHYHORSHGWKHVFHQDULR
18 The future of Human Resources | A scenario approach
Fig. 2 – Seven step scenario development approach
7 Monitoring 1 Focal Question
6 Implications 2 & Options Seven Step Driving Forces Scenario Development Approach
3 Critical 5 Scenario Uncertainties Narratives
4 Scenario Frameworks
19 Contacts
Maren Hauptmann Volker Rosenbach Dr. Florian Klein Partner Partner Head of Center for the Long View Human Capital Advisory Services Human Capital Advisory Services Monitor Deloitte Consulting Consulting Tel: +49 (0)89 29036 7919 Tel: +49 (0) 40 32080 4824 Tel: +49 (0)69 9713 7386 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Special thanks to Nadine Galandi, Felix Ebeling, Cathrin Christ, Andreas Schühly, and Maximiliane Brecht
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