Afghanistan Food Security Brief

AFSTT Special Situation Brief—Post 2012/13 Season Vol. 1 Issue 2 Key Findings October 2012

Overall, the food security situation was analyzed in 26 provinces for October–March 2012/13. About 642,792 people in 11 provinces are classified in Phase 3- Crisis. Another 2,973,770 people are classified in Phase 2- Stressed, and 11,611,338 in Phase 1- Minimal.

In general, the food security status of analyzed provinces has improved considerably in the report- ing months thanks to good rainfall and very good cereal production forecasted to reach 6.3 million MT, the highest in 35 years. Compared to 2011 when rain fed wheat extensively failed, area planted in 2012 is up 25% and yield up 270%. The availability of water and pasture has increased, leading to significant improvement in livestock productivity and value. The harvesting of staple crops have been concluded almost all over the country, compared to last year wheat prices decreased, unskilled labour wages have increased leading to overall improved food access. Hu- manitarian and Government interventions, such as food, feed and inputs distributions in most 2011 drought affected and recently natural disasters affected areas, control of plant pests and diseases among other contributed to improvements in food security.

However, several shocks, particularly natural disasters, extreme weather, conflict, insecurity, and animal diseases, have contributed to acute food insecurity (stressed or crisis) of hundreds of thousands of people, most still struggling to recover from last year’s ordeals or recurrent droughts and natural disasters. Despite above average rains in many cases that led to significant recovery and Analysis carried out increased value of livestock, the food insecure are not able to benefit from it due to low livestock by the Afghanistan asset holding. The poorest hold few livestock which they have either lost parts of or all through Food Security mortalities, diseases and crisis sales. Insecurity is also disrupting market supply in many provinc- Technical Team es, leading to below normal/potential supply of food and other non-food commodities. (AFSTT)

Physical utilization of food is generally inadequate in analyzed areas as evidence shows low access to drinking water, precarious household health environment and poor feeding practices. Inade- Published by the quate food consumption (quantity and quality) is causing malnutrition but poor health status is IPC Coordination / greatly contributing to the condition. Secretariat FAO– Afghanistan Table 1 : General Descriptions of IPC Acute Phases for Areas Dar-Ul-Aman Office Phase General Description

More than four in five households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without 1 Minimal engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance Contact:

on humanitarian assistance. [email protected] Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the 2 Stressed following or worse: Minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition; OR 3 Crisis Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps. Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition 4 Emergency and excess mortality; OR Extreme loss of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps in the short term. Even with any humanitarian assistance, at least one in five households in the area have an 5 Famine extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evi- dent. Afghanistan Food Security Brief Populations Table

Phase 3 or Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 higher Total Region Province Rural Pop % % # % % # pp % pp # pp % pp # pp % pp # pp pp pp pp pp pp

Laghman 419,300 285,124 68% 104,825 25% 29,351 7% - 0% - 0% 29,351 7%

Nangarhar 1,225,000 1,102,500 90% 122,500 10% - 0% - 0% Eastern Nuristan 140,900 77,495 55% 28,180 20% 35,225 25% - 0% - 0% 35,225 25%

Kunar 415,700 311,775 75% 83,140 20% 20,785 5% - 0% - 0% 20,785 5%

Balkh 794,900 715,410 90% 79,490 10% - 0% - 0%

Jawzjan 403,500 363,150 90% 40,350 10% - 0% - 0%

Northern Samangan 341,000 245,520 72% 78,430 23% 17,050 5% - 0% - 0% 17,050 5% 10% Sar-e-pul 491,100 324,126 66% 117,864 24% 49,110 10% - 0% - 0% 49,110

Faryab 833,700 733,656 88% 100,044 12% - 0% - 0%

Takhar 812,200 690,370 85% 121,830 15% - 0% - 0% North 286,96 Badakhshan 869,600 173,920 20% 408,712 47% 33% - 0% - 0% 286,968 33% Eastern 8 Baghlan 691,100 628,901 91% 62,199 9% - 0% - 0% 12% Ghor 650,500 442,340 68% 130,100 20% 78,060 12% - 0% - 0% 78,060

Western Hirat 1,280,100 1,088,085 85% 192,015 15% - 0% - 0%

Badghis 458,100 320,670 70% 137,430 30% 0% - 0%

Central Bamyan 413,500 277,045 67% 111,645 27% 24,810 6% - 0% - 0% 24,810 6% High- lands Daykundi 435,000 330,600 76% 87,000 20% 17,400 4% - 0% - 0% 17,400 4%

Nimroz 131,700 109,311 83% 22,389 17% - 0% - 0%

Southern Uruzgan 323,900 242,925 75% 80,975 25% - 0% - 0%

Kandahar 753,600 572,736 76% 180,864 24% - 0% - 0%

Paktya 501,900 376,425 75% 100,380 20% 25,095 5% - 0% - 0% 25,095 5%

Paktika 411,200 349,520 85% 61,680 15% - 0% - 0% South Eastern Khost 535,800 364,344 68% 112,518 21% 58,938 11% - 0% - 0% 58,938 11%

Ghazni 1,112,400 778,680 70% 333,720 30% - 0% - 0%

Logar 363,800 309,230 85% 54,570 15% - 0% - 0% Central Kapisa 418,400 397,480 95% 20,920 5% - 0% - 0% 15,227,90 11,611,33 642,79 4.2 Total 76.3% 2,973,770 19.5% 4.2% - 0% - 0% 642,792 0 8 2 %

Page 2 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012

In Crisis: Badakhshan

Badakhshan province is classified in Phase 3 - Crisis. It is estimated that about 33% of the population are in Crisis and 47% Stressed.

This year, the province was hit by a series of avalanches, landslides, flash floods, and harsh winter weather which affected wheat, vegetables production and caused significant livestock loss. It is estimated that lack of feed caused the death of 41,000 and affected another 217,000 goats and sheep while the harsh weather killed about 3,000 livestock and affected ten times this number in all 28 districts. This has happened in a context of widespread poverty affecting 61% of the population and very low coping capacity as Badakhshan livelihoods are still affected by last year’s drought. About 97% of shock affected households have yet to recover. In the 2011/12 NRVA, an overwhelming 50.4% reported borrowing as their first source of income, and about 74% claimed to have a worse economic situation compared to the year before.

By end of May 2012, WFP food aid distribution amounted to 1,726.11 MT covering 101,300 beneficiaries. Estimations show that production of wheat comparative to last year has increased but wheat deficit still stands at 18,400 MT. Despite the harsh winter, precipitation improved over March -June when compared to last year and to long-term average. Conse- quently, pasture conditions have improved. Harvest nearly in all districts of the province has completed including high elevation areas of the province. Currently markets in lower elevations are functioning.

Compared to last year, wheat grain and flour prices have gone down in September 14% and 7% respectively but wheat grain price was still higher 13% and flour 29% than in 2010 according to MAIL. In contrast, according to WFP price data, the September wheat grain price decreased by 17% and wheat flour by 8% in comparison to the same time last year, meanwhile the terms of trade casual labour/wheat and sheep/wheat have considerable improved. However prices of other household commodities such as rice, maize, mungbeans and pea have increased compared to last year same time. Physical access to food is constrained by bad road conditions due to damages caused this winter by natural disasters such as the flash floods, avalanches...etc. In general, market access is hampered by lack of road networks, with only one quarter of roads open year round and one quarter of the districts having no year round roads. Districts bordering Tajikistan have a mutual market where access to variety of goods is better during this time of the year. The loss of livestock in Ba- dakhstan affects income, especially in the extreme northern part of the province and the Wakhan corridor where people depend on livestock sales during the hunger season (May - September) to purchase food from markets. It is important to note that income from opium is expected to rise in Argo, Darayem, Jurm, Khash, Wardoj, Baharak, Arghankhash, Teshkan districts as prices have increased substantially this year (150%).

In general, food accessed by population is inadequately utilized by at least a quarter of households due to limited access to clean water, combined with poor cooking practices and household health environment. Losses due to inadequate food storage and resulting losses is highest during warm weather.

Overall food consumption in Badakhshan province is very poor with over 80% in deficit of calorie intake in NRVA 2011/12, of which 60.3% are very severely to severely in deficit. In late 2011, a survey carried out in food insecurity and malnutrition vulnerable districts revealed very poor household diet diversity, with an average score of less than 4 food groups (3.6). During the same time, prevalence of malnutrition was estimated at 12.9%.The situation is estimated to have now improved during harvest, but consumption is still inadequate (minimal /food gaps) for shocks affected households who are not able to diversify their diet, especially in the context of rising food prices (with the exception of wheat). As- sets stripping to meet food consumption and/or non food expenditures continue to be the strategy of the poorest, displaced, indebted, and food aid dependent households.

In July 2012, Emergency Food Security & Livelihood Assessment (EFSLA) was carried out in Darayem, Ishkashem, Koran Wa Monjan, and Kuf Ab districts of the province. In all surveyed districts, food consumption score was very poor and percentage of food insecure households were above 55.

Page 3 Afghanistan Food Security Brief

In Crisis: Nuristan

About 25% of the population in Nuristan are classified to be in Phase 3- Crisis from October 2012 to March 2013. The populations in this province faced several shocks this season, including avalanches with devastating effects on lives and livelihoods in Mandol district, human diseases outbreaks, notably measles in Wama districts, smut disease which seri- ously affected winter irrigated wheat in Waygal district, and high level of insecurity incidents which caused displacement of thousands of families in search of security. Moreover, no aid reached the most affected households, increasing use of crisis strategies to help cope during the hungry season when access is very limited. Overall, 80% of households that were affected by shocks in 2011 and 2012 reported that they did not recover, and for 62% of households if their economic situation did not improve over the previous year, it actually worsened (27%).

Despite receiving more rain than the long term average (+41%), this under populated province is still short 9,200 MT of wheat. Food availability is inadequate as the few existing local markets are undersupplied, and generally disconnected from bigger markets in the region due to the lack of infrastructure. Also, access to food is severely affected by a moun- tainous terrain combined with lack of road networks and transportation to reach markets. Food prices have decreased from 2011 levels but increasing from 2010 (e.g., 25%-80%), thus limiting financial access of the poor households, especially those who do not own livestock and cannot take advantage of current higher prices. Wages remain the same following seasonal trends. It is important to note that not one single formal credit provider institution exist in the entire province. Few households rely on migrant workers (23%) who mostly favour urban areas within the province to other destinations.

Physical utilization of food is highly inadequate based on the analysis of household health environment which indicate extremely low standard. The majority of households uses traditional means for sanitation (open pit) and cooking fuel (firewood), drinks and prepares food collected from unprotected water sources. More than 95% of households cook in the same room they sleep. Feeding practices are extremely poor in Nuristan; for example, a recent survey sampling some areas showed that over 37% of children received breastfeeding for less than one month, most receiving exclusive breastfeeding for only one or two days.

In October 2012—March 2013, many households will continue to experience poor to borderline consumption as, on average, a high proportion have either deficient (46%) or borderline (15%) food intake in this province where poor dietary diversity is prevalent. A MUAC survey in the area last year was showing above emergency level (21% Global Acute Mal- nutrition). A volatile context and natural disasters are pushing affected people to displacement and erosion of livelihood strategies and assets. This year, only very few households have chosen to return.

Emergency food security & livelihood assessment covered two districts, Du Ab and Wama, of the province in July 2012, the latter had borderline food consumption score with 54% insecure households.

Table 2: Priority Response Objectives Phase Priority Response Objectives

1 Action required to build resilience and for Disaster Risk Reduction

2 Action required for Disaster Risk Reduction and to protect livelihoods

3 Urgent Action Required to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps, and reduce acute malnutrition

4 Urgent Action Required to save lives and livelihoods 5 Urgent Action Required to prevent widespread death and total collapse of livelihoods

Page 4 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012 Northern Region Sar-e-pul In general, Sar-e-pul province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed. The provincial centre, Sar-e-pul district, is in Phase 3 – Crises within the validity period October-March 2012/13. While production of wheat is estimated above the area requirement improving by 21% compared to last year with surplus of 41,000 MT thanks to higher than average rainfall, resilience is low, especially among the poorest, as in the last couple of years people have been through drought, floods, and conflict induced displacement. It is estimated that 93% had not recovered from shocks by harvest.

In May, heavy rains were followed by floods in five districts, namely Saripul, Sancharak, Gosfandi, Sozma Qala, Ko- histanat causing livelihood disruption, including significant loss of livelihood capitals and displacement for a number of households, and leaving affected populations with reduced abilities to invest. Moreover, livestock diseases outbreaks in Sar-e-pul district, namely Foot and Mouth Disease, Sheep Pox and Newcastle, and rising prices of most commodities are contributing factors to food insecurity.

While wheat prices have gone down in August/September, other commodities prices such as rice, maize, vegetable oil, beef and mutton prices have increased substantially from last two years levels. Rice increased 43% and 25% higher when compared to 2011 and 2010. Imported rice, stable in last two years, is now trading 33% higher. Maize prices increased 10% from last year and 130% from 2010, vegetable oil price jumped 50% from 2010/2011 prices. While increase in beef and mutton price increase, 53% and 25% respectively, indicate deterioration in wheat to meat terms of trade, higher labor prices did not prevent, in general, terms of trade from deteriorating.

In 2011/12, 34.2% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie, and 14.9% borderline. Same time last year, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was measured at 13.9% which indicated an acute food insecurity crisis. Current- ly the rate is estimated to decrease by 3% - 4% due to good harvest, and few diseases outbreaks. This year’s destructive floods, rising food prices and other shocks have had a significant effect on food access for at least one in five household in rural areas. Displaced households and the poorest, despite the humanitarian assistance provided to the flood affected, have minimally adequate food consumption, and are currently unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies. EFSLA was conducted in Balkh Ab and Sar-e-pul districts of the province in July 2012, the latter has poor Food Consumption Score with 62% of households are food insecure. Samangan Overall, Samangan province is classified in Phase 2– Stressed. Khuram wa Sarbagh district is in Phase 3– Crisis in October– March 2012/13. In flood hit areas, despite significant effect on livelihood assets and strategies, abundant and timely humanitarian assistance contributed highly to improving the situation.

The major shocks that occur this year include flash floods in Khuram wa Sarbagh and Dara-I-Sufi Payin districts, frost with adverse effect on irrigated wheat, to a lesser extent on rain fed wheat, and on livestock (killed about 5,000 sheep and goats) in seven districts, a variety of plant diseases which were contained by a MAIL campaign, and livestock diseases that killed about 950 small ruminants and affected another 5,600.

Food availability is not a major limiting factor in the analysis period. Wheat production has improved by 103% from last year, and food aid has been distributed to the affected households in flood hit areas. Despite the consequences of livestock diseases, overall health conditions and prices have improved substantially when compared to same time last year. Markets are currently supplied and functioning well and wheat prices gone down substantially from last year’s levels thanks to the good harvest. Labour wages as well as remittances from migrant workers are normal. However, lack of financial assets, especially for the poorest and landless people of Roy Doab, Dara Yosof Bala and Dara Yosof Payeen, and the shocks affected households will limit market access and diet diversity. Drinking water availability and access is a major problem in the area.

Food consumption is deficit for 28% of households, 19% borderline, who averaged below the 2,100 kcal per day in 2011/12. Prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition is estimated 8.3% in third quarter of 2011 for the province. Hazrat-e- Sultan and Khuram Wa Sarbagh districts were surveyed by EFSLA in July 2012, the latter has borderline food consumption score with 45% of household are food insecure.

Page 5 Afghanistan Food Security Brief Jawzjan In general, Jawzjan province is classified in Phase 1 – Minimal acute food insecurity in the area. Khamyab district is in Phase 2– Stressed. As households in Jawzjan are recovering from last year’s shocks, and their economic situation is improving, food consumption will be adequate for most in October-March 2012/13. However, it is estimated that about 10% of the rural population are in phase 2 - Stressed, within the validity period.

Wheat production stands at about 183,000 MT, an increase of 229% compared to last season. As a result the province recovers from last year’s deficit with a surplus of 102,000 MT this year. Irrigation water availability for the second cash crop i.e. fruits is abundant and the prospects are extremely positive. Animal health has improved this year, and no livestock disease outbreak was reported. However access to food is still a limiting factor in areas such as in western district Khwaja Kukoh where flash floods disrupted the livelihoods of 2,630 families and affected winter irrigated wheat production, in Qirqeen and Khamyab districts where some crops were lost after flooding of Amu river, and where salinization and soil erosion are an issue, in Darzab and Qosh Tepa districts where insecurity is increasing.

The wheat surplus production has considerably improved access to food, functioning of markets, labour wages both within the province and in neighbouring provinces. Income prospects from second crops and carpet weaving are positive . Wheat grain price decreased by 19%, maize by 5%, vegetable oil by 6% from 2011 levels, and prices are projected to increase in the coming winter months. However, both local and imported rice prices have increased (17% and 18% respectively), while the price of beef 20% higher than in 2011 and 26% higher than in 2010 in a province where only 21% own livestock. Price of labour shot up 40%; consequently, terms of trade labour/wheat has increased substantially (73%) unlike wheat/mutton terms of trade that decreased by 31%. Carpet weaving which employs most women and children has had no major problems this year. Good road networks connect communities to the main markets; social network is strong as evidence shows that small size interest-free loans are prominent. However, access to drinking water is a limiting factor in some areas of Jawzjan, although more households this year in comparison to last year have access to it.

In retrospective, in 2011/12, 22.5% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie requirement, and 14.9% borderline. At 2.8% in April 2012, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was low and expected not to significantly change. Current EFSLA was conducted in Fayz Abad, Khamyab, Khanaqa, Mardyan districts, among them Khamyab district has borderline food consumption score, with 40% of household are food insecure. Balkh In general, Balkh province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal with Shor Tepa and Sholgareh districts are in Phase 2– Stressed from October to March 2012/13. Food consumption and nutrition are expected to improve significantly, as well as grain and livestock production. However, people who have been affected by this season’s shocks together with the poorest who were severely food deficit in 2011/12 cannot meet minimal consumption without stressing their livelihood base.

In 2011, Balkh was affected by drought which led most households to employ insurance strategies, including offloading livestock and reducing quantity of water used to help them cope with the situation. Vulnerability is still high among the poor (60.3%), especially the poorest. They were among the most affected people, and had to use crisis strategies to get by, eroding in the process their livelihood base. Overall, 90% of shock affected households reported not having recovered. This season, floods in Shahi, Chimtal, Sholgara and Kishindeh districts, crop disease, notably Pomegranate borer and Melon fly, animal disease outbreaks, namely Foot and Mouth Disease, PPR and Newcastle disease, and a harsh winter are the main shocks faced by people in Balkh. Because of damages and losses caused by the floods, many members of affected households seasonally migrated to different locations to make up for their losses, and agricultural labourers lost opportunities for work. To reduce the adverse effects of crop disease on production, MAIL mounted a control campaign in the province. It is estimated that 800 cattle and sheep died from FMD and PPR, and about 4,500 affected. Newcastle disease claimed 3,000 poultry. Harsh winter affected about 14,500 small ruminants and was fatal to another 1,500 heads. Overall the prospect of grain production is good, wheat is harvested in surplus of 110,700 MT, and staple crops are currently available through production and imports from Iran, Paki- stan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to adequately meet the province requirement. Access to food is currently a mi- nor limiting factor for the majority: 67% of households have access to land; wheat grain price decreased 11% and flour price increased 27% from September prices last year; livestock and cooking oil prices remain near to normal but rice prices, just like in many other provinces of Afghanistan are higher; labour prices are still high despite not having changed from 2011 levels; there are currently no major insecurity issue, and Mazar e Sharif market is accessible from all villages. However, access to safe drinking water is limited to 28% of the population.

On average in 2011/2012, it is found that most of the population have achieved adequate calorie consumption (69.1% of households), 19.4% have inadequate consumption, and 15.5 have borderline consumption. Considering the analysis timeframe, food consumption has improved for most except for households severely floods affected. EFSLA covered Deh Dadi, Sholgareh, and Shor Tepa districts of the province in July 2012, Shortepa district has borderline food consumption with 39% food insecurity.

Page 6 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012 Faryab Overall, Faryab province is classified in phase 1- Minimal acute food insecurity in October-March 2012/13. Shirin Ta- gab and Gurziwan districts are in Stressed food insecurity phase during validity period.

Natural disasters, namely floods and land slide, affected winter irrigated wheat in 8 districts of the province, particularly in Almar, Maymana, Pashun Kot and Gurziawan districts, totally affecting about 2000 families. Sheep Pox and PPR diseases affected sheep and goats in all districts of the province, while FMD were reported in cattle.

In spite Faryab was one of 2011 drought affected provinces, however this year due to above average rainfall and MAIL’s campaign against grape vine diseases, suunpest, codling month and melon fly, general prospect of food availability is better. Wheat surplus is two times higher than last year with 107,900 MT surplus. Comparing prices with 2011, price of wheat is still below 9%, imported wheat flour increased 16% and mutton 8%, and labour wages up 25%. While prices of staple commodities and meat increased comparing with same time 2010 according to MAIL’s price bulletins. Insecurity incidents reported in central west part of the province which hinders physical access of households to the markets.

Food utilization is a major limiting factor, more than 90% using traditional latrine, half of the population drinking from unprotected water sources, and majority using traditional means as source of cooking fuel and have less separate room as kitchen facility.

From NRVA 2011/12 prospective, 60% of households have adequate calorie intake, 22% borderline and rest were in deficit. Early 2011 SMART indicates malnutrition at 13% whish should be quiet lower this year due to good harvest and less diseases outbreaks. EFSLA covered two districts, Gurziwan and Shirin Tagab, in July 2012. Both districts have poor food consumption, and 62% and 73% food insecure households respectively.

North Eastern Region

Takhar

In general, Takhar province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal. The districts of Chah Ab and Khwaja Bahawuddin are in Phase 2- Stressed in October – March 2012/13.

Food consumption and nutrition are expected to improve significantly. However, the poorest, very severely food deficit households in 2011/12 affected have yet to fully recover from the drought.

Floods, livestock and plant diseases in Ishkamish, Kulfagan, and Yangi Qala districts had minor effects on overall food security pillars this year in the province. Populations who were affected by the drought last year increased sharecropping patterns this year as an insurance strategy to cope.

A good rainfall contributed to wheat surplus for the province estimated at 182.900 MT, which represent 44% of total production and 133% increase from 2011. Availability of water in basins also increased significantly (18%) in comparison to the long-term average. Drinking water as well as irrigation water availability for the second crops is sufficient with exception of Kalafgan and Yangi Qala districts where drinking water availability is not adequate. Food aid was distributed before harvest and covered a good number of beneficiaries who were affected by the drought.

Markets in Takhar are well connected and functioning. With harvest, wheat and most food commodity prices have decreased except wheat flour prices which is increased 12% compared to 2011 prices. However, the price of all food items, such as wheat grain and flour, rice local and imported have increased from its 2010 level. Enhanced livestock conditions and better prices, especially beef, have translated to improved terms of trade for those households who rely on livestock sale to access staple food in the market (52.1% own livestock). Labor wages, work opportunities, and share-cropping benefits are record high for the poor and landless.

In 2011/12, 33.7% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie, and 16.7% borderline. In July last year, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition was measured at 10.4% which indicated an acute food insecurity crisis. The current rate is expected to be lower.

Page 7 Afghanistan Food Security Brief Baghlan Baghlan province is classified in phase 1- Minimal in October-March 2012/13 validity period. Baghlan was one of drought affected provinces in 2011, but this year 90% of households reported to recovered from shocks, mainly drought. 57% observed that their economic situation is improved compared to year before.

Baghlan was hit by several flash floods and floods affected 1300 families, particularly in Burka, Dahan-I-Ghuri and Nahrin districts. Earthquake affected 700 families in five districts, mainly Burka district where 71 people reported dead from the causality.

Food availability is not a limiting factor, wheat production is higher than 2011/10 levels, 36% up from 2011 and 14% from 2010; thanks to above average rainfall in 2012 rainy season which brought the province from deficit to surplus category . Food access is good, wheat prices decreased 10%, and livestock prices increased compared to same time last year; rice, as a second stable food in the province, prices are near to normal from last two years. Labor wage shows decreasing trend has deteriorated labor/wheat terms of trade, while terms of trade between meat/wheat is increased in favour of 59% household who own livestock. Food utilization is a minor limiting factor, nearly three in every four households drink from unprotected water sources, and majority use traditional source of cooking fuel and poor sanitary measures.

Caloric consumption were adequate for 82% of the households in 2011/12. 35% of rural households reported to have seasonal migration, mostly to urban areas of the province in search of job opportunities. Late June 2012, EFSL assessment were conducted in Deh Salah and Firing Wa Gharu districts of the province, the former has poor food consumption and 79% food insecure households.

Western Region Hirat Hirat province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal acute food insecurity in October – March 2012/13. Despite the drought in 2011, most households (70.3%) in Hirat managed to consume in 2011/12 adequate calories, a combination of relatively high resilience and the humanitarian assistance provided. Currently, more than four in five households are estimated to be able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance on humanitarian assistance.

Natural disasters, namely frost and recent floods, and animal disease outbreaks, which caused livelihood damages and adversely affected crop (mainly irrigated wheat and fruits) and livestock production, are the main shocks this season in Hirat. A control campaign against locust in three districts was carried out by MAIL.

Wheat production in 2012 is below requirement by 45,000MT. Compared to 2011, rain fed wheat production is up 73%, while irrigated wheat, partly destroyed by floods, is down by 5.3%. Availability is minor limiting factor during the analysis timeframe as Hirat’s big market is functioning, well connected, and supplied through additional imports of wheat and other food commodities such as rice from Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan. The main livestock market is also available to sellers and buyers from the province and beyond.

Physical access to market is a problem for Farsi, Golran, and Kushk kohnah districts which are located further away and whose connecting roads are bad. Damaged infrastructures caused by floods can, to some extent, constrain physical access to food in over half of the districts, namely Pashtun Zarghun , Zendajan , Shindand, Enjil, Nizam-I-Shahid (Guzara) , Kohsan, Adraskan , Fersi, and Obe.

Wheat prices are on the decline, agricultural labour prices are near to average. Consequently, terms of trade labour/ wheat have improved. However imported rice price has increased in September by 30%. Safe drinking water is accessed by only 28% of households and not expected to change significantly within validity period.

Two districts, Chisht-e-Sharif and Zenda Jan, were assessed by EFSLA in July 2012, both the districts have acceptable food consumption and low number of food insecure households.

Page 8 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012 Ghor Ghor province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed within the validity period October-March 2012/13 for an estimated 20% of the rural population. Tolak and Pasabad districts are in Phase 3- Crises.

Like nearby provinces, Ghor was affected by drought last year which reduced both irrigated and rain fed crop yields and caused total rain fed wheat failure for about 45% of households. Then, almost all people in the province were affected by the drought; 61% have now recovered from the shocks, and about 41% reported to be in a worse economic condition. This year, destructive flash floods occurred in Chaghcharan, Shahrak, Charsada, Du layna, Dawlat Yar and Tulak districts of the province, washing away agriculture land and homes, damaging infrastructures and causing displacement among other. Irrigated and rain-fed wheat were also affected by floods in central west districts of the province. A widespread Sheep Pox outbreak affected 2664 heads and killed about a little half that number. Locust was an issue this season, but a control campaign by MAIL was launched in time to preserve cereal crops.

Food availability was increased in May 2012 through general food distribution of 1,245 MT, covering 94,602 beneficiaries. Accumulated precipitation increased by 63% compared to long term average, and nearly twice as much than last year. In response, wheat production is estimated to increase, but is in deficit this year by 15,200 MT, still a higher deficit than in 2010 because of the devastating effect of floods and less investment in overall production this season. While markets are currently functioning, and imports is expected to arrive in the main market from Hirat, overall physical access is a major limiting factor in Ghor due to bad road condition which hinders access to local markets. Comparing prices with September last year, both wheat grain and wheat flour prices decreased (24% and 14% respectively), mutton price decreased 9% while beef price increased by 6%. In contrast, nearly the prices of all food commodities increased, except mutton which is decreased by 9%, compared to 2010 level prices. Access to water is very limited as only 14% have access. Unsafe water usage is widespread and the risk of contamination high, given that two third of households do not have toilet facilities.

On average in 2011/2012, calorie intake has been inadequate for 36.9% of households. Prevalence of Global Acute Mal- nutrition was estimated 7.3% in the same time last year. At harvest, consumption and nutritional status are expected to improve. Tolak and Pasaband districts were surveyed by EFSLA in July 2012, found 82% and 46% food insecure households in the districts respectively. Badghis

Badghis province is classified in phase 2- Stressed within October-March 2012/13 validity period. The province was affected by drought last year, and more time is required to fully recover from it, as 90% households reported they did not recover from shocks, and only 18% of households observed economical improvements in their lives compared to year befor.

This year, the province was hit by some natural disasters, such as floods, avalanches, and extreme winter. Affected nearly 3000 families in five districts of the province, particularly Muqur and Qadis. Livestock diseases were also reported in the province; FMD affected cattle, Enterotoxemia, sheep pox, and harsh weather affected 11,000 sheep and goats and killed another 12,500. Newcastle disease were also reported in poultry.

Accumulated precipitation was higher 140% from last year and 45% than long term average, wheat production was above 2011/10 levels, and has a surplus as compared to last year deficits, thanks to abundant rainfall and control campaigns against locust and sunn pest diseases of the Ministry of agriculture. Wheat grain, flour and labor prices remain near to normal, rice and vegetable oil have increased 25% and 138% respectively, while livestock and its products prices slightly decreased from same time last year, bringing improvement in wheat/meat terms of trade. In contrast, nearly the price of all basic commodity increased, except livestock prices and labor wages, from 2010 level.

In 2011/12, 51% of households were classified in deficit in terms of calorie, and 18.8% borderline. EFSLA covered three vulnerable districts of the province, Ab Kamari, Qala-e-Naw, and Qadis districts of the province; all the districts have acceptable food consumption and less number of food insecure households.

Page 9 Afghanistan Food Security Brief Central Highlands Daykundi Daykundi province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed within the validity period, October-March 2012/13. Ashtarlay district is in Phase 3- Crisis. It is estimated that 20 % of the rural population are stressed in a context of compounding shocks, combined with low recovery rate (only 11% of households), and deteriorating economic conditions reported by 38% of households.

With around 60% of rain-fed agricultural land, low precipitation last year returned significantly below average harvest. This year’s rainfall was also low, only 15% increase from the previous year and significantly less land planted (40%) due to floods in seven districts, thus resulting in an estimated 28,000 MT deficit in wheat production for 2012/13 marketing year. Months before harvest, concerns for the wheat production, water and fodder availability had already started to lead over an estimated one third of households to use insurance coping mechanisms in order to cover their needs, including borrowing money, migrating and selling livestock earlier than planned.

Floods affecting five out of nine districts (Nili, Shahristan, Miramor, Sange-I-Takht and Kejran), animal disease outbreaks, namely Foot and Mouth Diseases and Sheep Pox in Nili, Sang-I-Takht, Kejran, and relatively high human disease outbreaks have contributed to additional loss of assets and/or limited access to resources, stressing livelihoods and food consumption.

Adding to poor infrastructure in this Central Highland province, a limiting factor to food physical access, wheat prices have increased and labour wages remain the same compared to previous years’ levels indicating inadequate access to food for poor people which make up about 43% of the population. Physical utilization of food is highly inadequate in Daykundi where potable water is accessed by barely over one tenth of the population (13.8%), slightly less than three quarters (72%) have no toilet facilities- the remaining use open pit and traditional covered latrines, and animal dung is the main source of cooking fuel (78%). In July 2012 EFSLA was carried out in Ashtarlay, Kejran and Sang-e-Takht districts of the province. The worst was Ash- tarly district, has borderline food consumption and 44% food insecure households. Bamyan Bamyan province is classified in Phase 2 – Stressed, the districts of Kahmard and Yakawlang are in Phase 3- Crisis in Octo- ber- March 2012/13. The severity of food insecurity has decreased with harvest, but an estimated 27% of the rural population, including poor households who are still recovering from the drought’s impact on their livelihood base and flood affected households currently meet at best minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies.

Bamyan was one of the provinces affected by drought in 2011. Then, over 50% of households reported reduction of both irrigated and rain fed crop yield, and 10% claimed total loss of production. A high number of households (87%) went into debt to cope, mainly to access food. Households reported selling their assets, engaging in insurance and crisis strategies, including selling of productive assets and migration. The 2011/12 NRVA found that 89% of affected households have yet to recover from the previous shocks. Moreover, people of Bamyan faced this season animal disease outbreaks and damaging flash floods which, among other, affected spring irrigated wheat in central Bamyan, Shebar, Kahmard, Yakawlang districts and rain-fed wheat in Waras district. No food aid distribution was reported in recent months. Compared to last season, accumulated precipitation marginally increased by 157%, that is 35% more than the long term average of accumulated precipitation. This contributed to an increase of 22% of wheat production this year. Wheat deficit still stands at 44,800 MT. Thanks to control pest campaigns launched against Locusts, hairy Tent Caterpillar, Colorado potato beetle and codling Moth in the province, relatively better quality wheat and vegetables have been produced. Excess rain has improved livestock condition in general, but diseases such as Foot and Mouth Disease and Enterotoxaemia have affected cattle in four districts of the province.

Currently, remote areas of the province are facing relatively less difficulties than in winter to access food markets, however physical access is still a constraint due to lack of road networks. Wheat grain and flour prices are still higher by 5% and 12% respectively, and rice price has increased 109% compared to same time last year. The value of beef increased by 28%, mutton and milk remain the same, but terms of trade have deteriorated from 2011 to 2012 for those who keep livestock. Meanwhile, labor wages decreased from last year which in turns deteriorated labor/wheat terms of trade. Overall, when compared to 2010, the year prior to the last drought, nearly prices of all basic food commodities have increased including wheat and wheat flour. Access to drinking water is a limiting factor in Bamyan as it reached only 8.8% of households, mainly located in urban areas.

A survey conducted in December 2011, Panjab and Waras ditrircts of the province, indicated poor dietary diversity with consumption of 4.2 food groups on average; the food consumption score analysis showed over half (66.1%) of households experi- encing inadequate consumption. In 2011/2012, about 50.7% of households did not meet the calorie requirement of 2100 Kcal/ per person/per day. A recent 2012 survey shows prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition is 6.2% all over the province.

Page 10 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012

Southern Region Kandahar Kandahar province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed in October-March 2012/13. Floods and extreme winter affected nearly 500 families in Kandahar, Daman, and Spin Boldak districts of the province according to OCHA humanitarian updates. Besides, Frost affected peaches, almond, walnut and apricot in seven districts of the province; cattle were reported to be affected from FMD, Enterotoxemai affected sheep, and lack of feed affected cattle, sheep, goats and poultry in ten districts of the province according to Agriculture Prospects Report of MAIL 2012.

No significant increase in accumulated precipitation occurred compared to last year and long term average, though the wheat production is higher from last year, lower than 2010 and has deficit nearly half of the total production. Wheat grain price has decreased 6%, flour price is up 70%, while prices of livestock and labor wages remain near to normal compared to same time last year, thus slightly improving terms of trade labor/wheat and deteriorating wheat/meat (only 17% own livestock). Comparing to 2010, prices of wheat grain and flour have increased 21% and 89% respectively, and price of livestock and its products have increased; 33% beef, 20% mutton and 12% milk. Thus further deteriorating terms of trade between labor/wheat and wheat/meat. In addition, insecurity incidents is a limiting factor in the central part of Kandahar when access to safe markets are hindered. Food utilization, like most of part of the country, is a minor limiting factor as well. Half of the population drink from unprotected water sources, while majority using traditional means as source of cooking and share poor sanitary measures.

On average, 25% of households are in deficit in terms of calorie intake in 2011/12. Prevalence of global acute malnutrition is 4.7% in a survey conducted recently in three out of 16 districts of the province. In July 2012, EFSL assessment was carried out in Nesh district, found acceptable food consumption and less number of food insecure households.

Nimroz Nimroz province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal from October 2012 to March 2013. It is estimated that 17% of population are in stressed food insecurity and will follow irreversible coping strategies to acquire some non-food expenditures.

Last year’s drought that caused loss of most agriculture production, drinking water access problems, high level of human diseases, high prices, and loss of livestock were the main shocks reported by households. About 87% of affected households did not recover from the shocks. This year, floods and frost affected irrigated wheat production, and livestock disease outbreaks affected goats, sheep and cattle in all five districts. In addition, the depreciation of the Iranian currency against Afghan currency and the US Dollars has had a negative impact on many.

Wheat production has been better this year and stands at 4,900 MT surplus, however food and none food items are coming from Iran as well as cereals from Kandahar. FMD in all districts and Blackleg in Zaranj and Kang districts affected an estimated 45,300 livestock, mostly sheep and goats, with a death rate of about 10% (19.4% for goats). Lack of safe water in the province is a serious problem. People rely on Iran for supply of potable water. Insecurity is a major limiting factor in terms of physical access to markets, income opportunities, and social networking. Wheat grain and flour prices have decreased from 2011 levels. Maize price, though down from 2011 level, was also 21% higher the same month in 2010. Beef price is up 39% and mutton price remain the same in September. Water costs about 15 Afs per 20 liters, and only 12.2% have access to it. Widespread use of unsafe water, lack of sanitation and poor feeding practices contributes to poor food physical utilisation.

While poverty is relatively low at 24.5%, the food consumption score has indicated poor quality and quantity for 32% of the households in the last year.

Page 11 Afghanistan Food Security Brief

Uruzgan

Uruzgan province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed from October 2012 to March 2013, as an estimated 25% of the rural population will not be able to meet non food expenses during this period without stressing their livelihood base.

Crop production represents the major income source for more than 60% of households in Uruzgan. Many were affected by drought and other shocks last year, and 89%, especially the poor which constitute about 41% of the population are still feeling the effects. This year, floods in Trinkot and Dehrawod districts and animal diseases, namely Food and Mouth Disease and Chicken Pox -combined with lack of vaccine- mainly in Chora, Khas uruzgan, Shahidhasas and Dehrawod• districts were the main shocks that impacted on food security.

Overall, wheat production improved from last year’s level but still yield a deficit estimated at 4,600 MT. Due to insecurity, geographic isolation, and poor transport infrastructure, markets have yet to be easily accessible by everybody in this high density province. Also, potable water is only accessed by 14% of households. The status of financial access to food is not adequate or borderline at best as 87% of affected households reported not to have recovered from the shocks. While wheat grain and flour prices are currently low, prices of other commodities such as rice and vegetable oil are up when compared to last two year’s prices. However, with beef and mutton prices increasing this year, terms of trade beef/wheat has improved considerably (80% households own livestock); meanwhile, with current decrease in labor prices terms of trade labor/wheat has deteriorated.

On average, food intake of 44.5% of households in Uruzgan is below normal in 2011/12, including 25% in very severe to severe deficit. In February, Global Acute Malnutrition was estimated at 7.3%.

South Eastern Region

Paktya

Paktya province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed in October-March 2012/13 for about 20% of the rural population. Whereas Zadran district is in Phase 3- Crisis.

Food consumption remains below requirement for the poorest still coping with last year’s shocks and those affected by this year’s main shocks, extreme cold weather, flash floods, hail, animal diseases and prevalent insecurity .

Despite improved rainfall, up 26% from long term average, early production estimates indicated a deficit. However, hail has reduced the wheat harvest which started in July by up to 50 percent compared to the average harvest. Food availability is borderline adequate to meet food consumption even though it is expected that supply can be increased through imports from Pakistan where essential food commodities are coming from, as well as from neighbouring provinces. The recent drought is thought to have reduced the number of household animals although their overall condition is expected to have had a chance to improve with the excess rain. Moreover, this year’s diseases outbreaks in approximately 6 districts and extreme weather only exacerbated the situation with increased death rate and morbidity.

Currently more people than expected will have to access food through markets. Constraints to food physical access include high level of insecurity and limited access to paved road with only one main market, Garzed, located in the capital of Paktya. Financial access has improved after the current harvest, with increased terms of trade meat/wheat and labour/wheat. In general, prices of main agricultural and non agricultural commodities either decreased or changed slightly in September; wheat by 12% and mutton remain the same for example. Paktya poverty level is high, about 61% but only 12% of households report one or more seasonal migrant worker. However the province is known to have sent scores of migrants, mostly permanently, out of the country mainly to Gulf countries. Despite, locals who receive remittances prefer to live in urban rather than rural areas.

Limited access to safe drinking water (14%) combined with widespread poor household health environment leads to inadequate food utilization at all times. This also contributed to malnutrition above the emergency level at 17.6% and, to some extent, to high death rate(o.8/10,000/day) last year in July-September. On average, calorie consumption were inadequate for reportedly 34.6% of households over 2011/12. In July 2012, EFSLA assessment carried out in two vulnerable districts of the province, Jani Khel and Zadran, the latter has poor food consumption score with 92% households are food insecure.

Page 12 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012

Paktika

Paktika province is classified in phase 1- Minimal from October 2012 to March 2013. 58% of households reported they recovered from shocks, and 85% replied that their economic situation either remain same or improved compared to year before.

According to Agriculture Prospects Report of MAIL 2012, floods affected winter and spring irrigated wheat and rain-fed wheat in all districts of the province. Enterotoxemia affected cattle, and lack of feed affected sheep, goats and cattle in all districts of the province, however the number of affected animals were not sizable.

Though the province has received good amount of rainfall and accumulated precipitation compared to year before and long term average, wheat production is lower than 2011 2010, and stands at deficit due to land damages from floods this year. However, households will be able to consume their wheat production in the validity period of analysis and rely on remittances as 17% households receive remittances as their first source of income from gulf countries. Wheat prices remain near to normal, while wheat flour prices have decreased compared to last two years. Wheat/mutton terms of trade did not deteriorate since last year, meanwhile it is improved compared to 2010 in favour of wheat cultivators.

On average, 18% households are below 2,100 kcal intake per person per day requirement in 2011/12. Seasonal migration in search of labor opportunities is 10%, who mostly go to abroad. Emergency food security & livelihood assessment conducted in Bermel district of the province, found acceptable food consumption and less percent of food insecure households.

Khost

Overall Khost province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed, whereas Tere Zayi and Jaji Maydan districts are in phase 3- Crisis within validity time period.

No major natural disasters were reported in 2012, however cattle were affected by FMD in five districts, sheep and goats where affected by PPR and Enterotoxemia in four districts, poultry from Newcastle in seven districts of the province according to MAIL’s information.

Accumulated precipitation increased compared to last year and long term average, however wheat production is lower than year before and still stands at deficit level. Wheat grain prices remain the same, and wheat flour slightly increased compared to last years. labor wages did not raise in current month and thus leaving labor/wheat terms of trade with no change. Prices of livestock and its products have increased compared to last two years in favour of 75% households who own livestock. Like majority of other provinces, physical utilization of food is a major limiting factor due to drinking from unprotected water sources, poor sanitary measures and cooking facilities.

On average, 56% of households were caloric deficit in 2011/12, while only 4% households have seasonal migration in search of work opportunities to the same urban areas of the province. Three vulnerable districts, namely Tere Zayi, Jaji Maydan and Spera, were covered by Emergency food security & livelihood assessment in July 2012; Tere Zayi and Jaji Maydan were poor in food consumption and have 99% and 90% food insecure households respectively.

Page 13 Afghanistan Food Security Brief

Ghazni

Ghazni province is classified in phase 2- Stressed in October-March 2012/13.

In 2012, floods affected nearly 500 individuals in four districts of the province. Frost affected plums and apricot in three districts; cattle, sheep and goats were affected from FMD in 6 districts, sheep and goats were affected from Enterotoxe- mia in 5 districts, and poultry were affected by harsh winter in 4 districts of the province.

Estimated wheat production is higher compared to year before, thanks to above average accumulated precipitation, however it is lower than 2010 and still the province tackle 62,400 MT deficit. Wheat grain prices have marginally increased, wheat flour and beef decreased, and mutton and labor prices are near to normal compared to same time last year; terms of trade between wheat/mutton slightly improved in favour of wheat cultivators (only 37% households own livestock); while both local and imported rice prices have decreased (4% and 26% respectively). In contrast, nearly prices of all basic food commodities have increased compared to 2010 except wheat flour and maize prices. Aside from few districts, overall access to markets is not good due to insecurity, remoteness and cold winter. Food utilization is a major limiting factor, though Kitchen facilities and sources of cooking were better but sources of drinking water and toilet facilities were in poor condition.

On average, 56% households were caloric deficit, 10% borderline in 2011/12. Seasonal migration is 10%, where most of them go to other provinces in search of job opportunities and security. In mid July 2012, three vulnerable districts were surveyed, all of them had acceptable food consumption and less percent of food insecure households.

Eastern Region

Kunar

Overall Kunar province is classified in phase 2- Stressed, the districts of Dara-e-Pech, Bar Kunar, Asad Abad, Chaw- kay, Nurgal and Khas Kunar are classified in Phase 3- Crisis from October 2012 to March 2013.

Floods affected irrigated wheat in 5 districts and rain-fed wheat in Sar Kani district of the province. One of biggest threat to the province is cross-border shelling form Pakistan, 1,200 incidents reportedly took place in the province in 2012, in addition, 1,386 impacts were recorded in September alone including other parts of eastern region. It affected rural population and bordering districts of the province, namely Nari, Dangam, Khas Kunar and Shaygal; and caused thousands of families to leave for secure areas of the province. Humanitarian aid is difficult to reach the area including medical assistance and vaccination campaign against polio for more than 20,000 children.

Wheat production is higher compared to last two years, thanks to above average rainfall and accumulated precipitation, however the province still tackle deficit which is nearly half of its production. In September, wheat grain and flour prices are below ( wheat 14% and flour 13), and livestock prices are near to normal compared to same time last year. Labor wages and meat prices increased from last two years, resulting considerable improvement in terms of trade between labor/wheat and meet/wheat (90% households own livestock). Generally, physical utilization of food is very poor; access to improved water sources in the province is among the lowest, on average 13.5 minutes take to reach a water source, limited percent of population have access to improved sanitary measures and proper cooking facilities.

Caloric intake were deficit for 6% households and 12% were borderline in 2011/12. Seasonal migration will increase from 2011/12 estimation due to ongoing conflicts, in search of safe places in urban areas of the province. Emergency food security & livelihood assessment was conducted in Mara Wara, Sar Kani and Shigal Wa Shletan districts of the province, only Shigal Wa Sheltan has borderline food consumption score and 51% food insecure households. Prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition from July 2012 SMART survey is 12% for half of the districts in the province.

Page 14 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012

Nangarhar

Nangarhar province is classified in Phase 1- Minimal acute food insecurity in October – March 2012/13. It is estimated that about 95% of the rural population achieve currently acceptable food consumption. Malnutrition level is expected to be under 5% for most districts, while slightly higher levels for Sarkhrod and Khew, mostly due to poor health status.

A number of households are affected by flash floods in Behsud, Surkh Rud, Chaparhar, Kuzkunar, Darah-I-Noor, Sher Zad, Hesarak, Khugyani districts. In Sherzad and Surkhrod districts 500 ha of agricultural land were washed away by floods. Other shocks include human diseases outbreaks, such as measles and malaria, and high level of insecurity incidents. Moreover, poppy cultivation has moderately increased this season taking away some agricultural land. Returnees from Pakistan are settling in Nangarhar.

Generally, food is adequate to meet food consumption requirement. Wheat harvest in the province is normal and in surplus, even though some other grain production decreased. Livestock numbers are expected to increase from 2011 level as grazing rejuvenates, body condition improves, feeds is available, and no disease outbreak is reported. Water availability compared to LTA is above average. Wild foods, namely pine nuts and walnuts harvest will start from October. Markets are functioning well, and wheat and livestock prices decreased from last year September and slightly increased from 2010 level. Most commodity prices have decreased compared to same time in 2011 whereas, increased from 2010 prices. Labour price is stable and close to 2011/10 level. Physical access to food is mainly constrained by insecurity episodes. In May, 930 flood affected beneficiaries received food aid from WFP.

A survey conducted in Sarkhrod and Khewa districts in December 2011 indicated household dietary diversity score at 4.52 with low prevalence of vitamin A consumption. However the food consumption score indicated that 61% of household had acceptable consumption, 32% borderline consumption and only 6.7% poor consumption. On average, food intake of 80% of households in Nangarhar is above normal in 2011/12. Malnutrition level was below 5% in May 2012 based on SMART nutrition survey.

Laghman In general, Laghman province is classified in Phase 2- Stressed. whereas Mehtarlam and temporary district of Bad Pash are in phase 3- Crisis acute food insecurity in October-March 2012/13. About 25%, including the poorest and the disaster stricken households are stressed within the analysis period.

Recent floods in Mehterlam and Alishing districts affected few households and their agriculture land. Vegetable production suffered in Meterlam and Qarghayee districts due to frost. However, no livestock and plant pest and diseases were reported.

Despite the deficit in wheat production, prices are currently low. Vegetable production is good overall, and income from exportation increases access to market. Prices of other commodities, such as rice, milk and beef have increased in the market, but labour wages have also increased in favour of the poor and landless and remittances are coming in.

In 2011/2012, about 75% of households did not meet the calorie requirement of 2100 Kcal/per person/per day. Preva- lence of Global Acute Malnutrition was 10.1% in two recently surveyed districts of the province. In June 2012, emergency food security & livelihood assessment carried out in three vulnerable districts, namely Alingar, Daulat Shah and Qargha- yi, all surveyed districts have acceptable food consumption score and less percent of food insecure households.

Page 15 Afghanistan Food Security Brief

Central Region

Logar

Logar province is classified in phase 1- Minimal in October-March 2012/13.

No major hazards were reported in 2012, aside from extreme winter which affected about 200 families in four districts of the province. According to MAIL’s data, frost affected apricot in 3 districts; FMD affected 5,000 and killed 1,000 cattle, harsh winter affected 1,300 and killed 650 sheep and goats in four districts of the province.

Overall cereal and fruit production is better than last two years, thanks to MAIL’s campaign against Grape vine diseases, locusts, and codling moth and above average accumulated precipitation. Wheat production is as much as of 2011 and 24% higher than 2010 production, and stands among surplus category provinces. Wheat price is still below 5%, while other commodity price either have increased or remain normal, such as rice local and imported have increased (25% and 40% respectively), beef 5% and mutton 0% compared to year before. In contrast, basic food item prices have increased from 2010 level except wheat flour which remain the same. Terms of trade between mutton/wheat have improved in favour of 75% households who own livestock.

On average, 26% households were deficit and 23% borderline in terms of caloric consumption in 2011/12. Seasonal migration is only 8%, who mostly prefer to go to rural areas of the same province in search of causal labor opportunities. Three vulnerable districts; Baraki Barak, Khoshi and Pul-e-Alam, of the province were assessed in July 2012. Among them Baraki Barak has borderline food consumption score.

Kapisa Kapisa province is classified in phase 1- Minimal in October-March 2012/13.

No major natural hazard reported in 2012, however Sunn pest reportedly affected winter irrigated wheat in Koh Band and Alasai district of the province. Accumulated precipitation is two times higher compared to last year and 50% up from long term average (2002-11). Though currently wheat production estimation for 2012 is lower than last two years with deficit, livestock and orchard production are better and local wheat production will be last until March 2013.

Current prices of wheat grain and flour are slightly higher, price of beef remain unchanged and labor wages are higher by 17% preventing labor/wheat terms of trade from deterioration, while price of local rice increased 78% compared to Sep- tember 2011 prices. Comparing to 2010 prices, wheat grain are up 23%, flour near to normal, beef and mutton higher 11%, and local rice prices nearly doubled; labor wages are still higher 40% thus improving labor/wheat terms of trade. Food utilization like other parts of the country is not satisfactory.

Caloric deficiency observed for only 5% households, 9% were in borderline in 2011/12. Seasonal migration is 4.2%, who mostly go to other provinces of the country. Emergency food security & livelihood assessment was carried out in Tagab district in mid July 2012, found acceptable food consumption score for the district.

Page 16 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012

Analysis realized by Representatives of:

AREA - FAO - ACTED - WFP - AFGHANAID - CARE - DACAAR - FEWSNET– UNOCHA Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock - OXFAM - Nutrition Cluster - FSAC Cluster

IPC COORDINATION

Page 17 AFSTT Special Situation Brief —

Post 2012/13 Season IPC Analysis

Evidenceand Standardsfor Better FoodSecurity Decisions!