Afghanistan Food Security Brief AFSTT Special Situation Brief—Post 2012/13 Season Vol. 1 Issue 2 Key Findings October 2012 Overall, the food security situation was analyzed in 26 provinces for October–March 2012/13. About 642,792 people in 11 provinces are classified in Phase 3- Crisis. Another 2,973,770 people are classified in Phase 2- Stressed, and 11,611,338 in Phase 1- Minimal. In general, the food security status of analyzed provinces has improved considerably in the report- ing months thanks to good rainfall and very good cereal production forecasted to reach 6.3 million MT, the highest in 35 years. Compared to 2011 when rain fed wheat extensively failed, area plant- ed in 2012 is up 25% and yield up 270%. The availability of water and pasture has increased, leading to significant improvement in livestock productivity and value. The harvesting of staple crops have been concluded almost all over the country, compared to last year wheat prices de- creased, unskilled labour wages have increased leading to overall improved food access. Hu- manitarian and Government interventions, such as food, feed and inputs distributions in most 2011 drought affected and recently natural disasters affected areas, control of plant pests and dis- eases among other contributed to improvements in food security. However, several shocks, particularly natural disasters, extreme weather, conflict, insecurity, and animal diseases, have contributed to acute food insecurity (stressed or crisis) of hundreds of thou- sands of people, most still struggling to recover from last year’s ordeals or recurrent droughts and natural disasters. Despite above average rains in many cases that led to significant recovery and Analysis carried out increased value of livestock, the food insecure are not able to benefit from it due to low livestock by the Afghanistan asset holding. The poorest hold few livestock which they have either lost parts of or all through Food Security mortalities, diseases and crisis sales. Insecurity is also disrupting market supply in many provinc- Technical Team es, leading to below normal/potential supply of food and other non-food commodities. (AFSTT) Physical utilization of food is generally inadequate in analyzed areas as evidence shows low access to drinking water, precarious household health environment and poor feeding practices. Inade- Published by the quate food consumption (quantity and quality) is causing malnutrition but poor health status is IPC Coordination / greatly contributing to the condition. Secretariat FAO– Afghanistan Table 1 : General Descriptions of IPC Acute Phases for Areas Dar-Ul-Aman Office Phase General Description More than four in five households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without 1 Minimal engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance Contact: on humanitarian assistance. [email protected] Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the 2 Stressed following or worse: Minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition; OR 3 Crisis Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps. Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: Large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition 4 Emergency and excess mortality; OR Extreme loss of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps in the short term. Even with any humanitarian assistance, at least one in five households in the area have an 5 Famine extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evi- dent. Afghanistan Food Security Brief Populations Table Phase 3 or Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 higher Total Region Province Rural Pop % % # % % # pp % pp # pp % pp # pp % pp # pp pp pp pp pp pp Laghman 419,300 285,124 68% 104,825 25% 29,351 7% - 0% - 0% 29,351 7% Nangarhar 1,225,000 1,102,500 90% 122,500 10% - 0% - 0% Eastern Nuristan 140,900 77,495 55% 28,180 20% 35,225 25% - 0% - 0% 35,225 25% Kunar 415,700 311,775 75% 83,140 20% 20,785 5% - 0% - 0% 20,785 5% Balkh 794,900 715,410 90% 79,490 10% - 0% - 0% Jawzjan 403,500 363,150 90% 40,350 10% - 0% - 0% Northern Samangan 341,000 245,520 72% 78,430 23% 17,050 5% - 0% - 0% 17,050 5% 10% Sar-e-pul 491,100 324,126 66% 117,864 24% 49,110 10% - 0% - 0% 49,110 Faryab 833,700 733,656 88% 100,044 12% - 0% - 0% Takhar 812,200 690,370 85% 121,830 15% - 0% - 0% North 286,96 Badakhshan 869,600 173,920 20% 408,712 47% 33% - 0% - 0% 286,968 33% Eastern 8 Baghlan 691,100 628,901 91% 62,199 9% - 0% - 0% 12% Ghor 650,500 442,340 68% 130,100 20% 78,060 12% - 0% - 0% 78,060 Western Hirat 1,280,100 1,088,085 85% 192,015 15% - 0% - 0% Badghis 458,100 320,670 70% 137,430 30% 0% - 0% Central Bamyan 413,500 277,045 67% 111,645 27% 24,810 6% - 0% - 0% 24,810 6% High- lands Daykundi 435,000 330,600 76% 87,000 20% 17,400 4% - 0% - 0% 17,400 4% Nimroz 131,700 109,311 83% 22,389 17% - 0% - 0% Southern Uruzgan 323,900 242,925 75% 80,975 25% - 0% - 0% Kandahar 753,600 572,736 76% 180,864 24% - 0% - 0% Paktya 501,900 376,425 75% 100,380 20% 25,095 5% - 0% - 0% 25,095 5% Paktika 411,200 349,520 85% 61,680 15% - 0% - 0% South Eastern Khost 535,800 364,344 68% 112,518 21% 58,938 11% - 0% - 0% 58,938 11% Ghazni 1,112,400 778,680 70% 333,720 30% - 0% - 0% Logar 363,800 309,230 85% 54,570 15% - 0% - 0% Central Kapisa 418,400 397,480 95% 20,920 5% - 0% - 0% 15,227,90 11,611,33 642,79 4.2 Total 76.3% 2,973,770 19.5% 4.2% - 0% - 0% 642,792 0 8 2 % Page 2 Vol. 1 Issue 2 October 2012 In Crisis: Badakhshan Badakhshan province is classified in Phase 3 - Crisis. It is estimated that about 33% of the population are in Crisis and 47% Stressed. This year, the province was hit by a series of avalanches, landslides, flash floods, and harsh winter weather which affected wheat, vegetables production and caused significant livestock loss. It is estimated that lack of feed caused the death of 41,000 and affected another 217,000 goats and sheep while the harsh weather killed about 3,000 livestock and affected ten times this number in all 28 districts. This has happened in a context of widespread poverty affecting 61% of the pop- ulation and very low coping capacity as Badakhshan livelihoods are still affected by last year’s drought. About 97% of shock affected households have yet to recover. In the 2011/12 NRVA, an overwhelming 50.4% reported borrowing as their first source of income, and about 74% claimed to have a worse economic situation compared to the year before. By end of May 2012, WFP food aid distribution amounted to 1,726.11 MT covering 101,300 beneficiaries. Estimations show that production of wheat comparative to last year has increased but wheat deficit still stands at 18,400 MT. Despite the harsh winter, precipitation improved over March -June when compared to last year and to long-term average. Conse- quently, pasture conditions have improved. Harvest nearly in all districts of the province has completed including high elevation areas of the province. Currently markets in lower elevations are functioning. Compared to last year, wheat grain and flour prices have gone down in September 14% and 7% respectively but wheat grain price was still higher 13% and flour 29% than in 2010 according to MAIL. In contrast, according to WFP price data, the September wheat grain price decreased by 17% and wheat flour by 8% in comparison to the same time last year, meanwhile the terms of trade casual labour/wheat and sheep/wheat have considerable improved. However prices of oth- er household commodities such as rice, maize, mungbeans and pea have increased compared to last year same time. Physical access to food is constrained by bad road conditions due to damages caused this winter by natural disasters such as the flash floods, avalanches...etc. In general, market access is hampered by lack of road networks, with only one quar- ter of roads open year round and one quarter of the districts having no year round roads. Districts bordering Tajikistan have a mutual market where access to variety of goods is better during this time of the year. The loss of livestock in Ba- dakhstan affects income, especially in the extreme northern part of the province and the Wakhan corridor where people depend on livestock sales during the hunger season (May - September) to purchase food from markets. It is important to note that income from opium is expected to rise in Argo, Darayem, Jurm, Khash, Wardoj, Baharak, Arghankhash, Teshkan districts as prices have increased substantially this year (150%). In general, food accessed by population is inadequately utilized by at least a quarter of households due to limited access to clean water, combined with poor cooking practices and household health environment.