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Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia

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Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia Elizaveta Chmykh Eugenia Dorokhova Hine-Wai Loose Kristina Sutkaityte Rebecca Mikova Richard Steyne Sarabeth Murray Edited by dr Grazvydas Jasutis Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia About DCAF DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance is dedicated to improving the se- curity of states and their people within a framework of democratic governance, the rule of law, respect for human rights, and gender equality. Since its founding in 2000, DCAF has contributed to making peace and development more sustainable by assisting partner states, and international actors supporting these states, to improve the governance of their security sector through inclusive and participatory reforms. It creates innovative knowledge products, promotes norms and good practices, provides legal and policy advice and supports capacity-building of both state and non-state security sector stakeholders. DCAF’s Foundation Council is comprised of representatives of about 60 member states and the Canton of Geneva. Active in over 80 countries, DCAF is interna- tionally recognized as one of the world’s leading centres of excellence for security sector governance (SSG) and security sector reform (SSR). DCAF is guided by the principles of neutrality, impartiality, local ownership, inclusive participation, and gender equality. For more information visit www.dcaf.ch and follow us on Twitter @DCAF_Geneva. The views and opinions expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not re- flect the official policy or position of DCAF. Publisher DCAF - Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance P.O.Box 1360 CH-1211 Geneva 1 Switzerland [email protected] +41 (0) 22 730 9400 Authors: Elizaveta Chmykh, Eugenia Dorokhova, Hine-Wai Loose, Kristina Sutkaityte, Rebecca Mikova, Richard Steyne, Sarabeth Murray Edited by dr Grazvydas Jasutis Design & layout: DTP Studio ISBN: 978-92-9222-604-6 Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia Preface Stretching from the Caspian Sea in the west to Mongolia in the east, and from Iran in the south to Russia in the north, Central Asia is a rich mosaic of cultures and histories. This diversity is reflected not only in the vast number of ethnic groups, languages, religions and tribes present in the region, but also in the number of security challenges. The unsettled border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, uncertainties in southern Kyrgyzstan, consequences of the Tajik Civil War, regional water and energy quarrels, and efforts to com- bat terrorism continue to impact peace, justice and security in Central Asia. As the Assistant Director of DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, and the Head of Oper- ations Europe and Central Asia, it therefore brings me great pleasure to present this study on fragile areas in Central Asia. Authored by experts at DCAF, the study presents six case studies of fragile areas in Central Asia. It explores their historical background as well as their proximate and structural caus- es. After mapping the actors involved in the conflicts, it identifies the current stage of each fragility, and analyzes responses to them, including confidence building and conflict resolu- tion initiatives implemented by local, national, regional and international organizations. The study demonstrates DCAF’s firm commitment to advancing good security sector gov- ernance in Central Asia. It is aimed at academics, researchers and practitioners working on issues related to peace, justice, and security in Central Asia, and provides a valuable resource for those seeking to better understand this complex and dynamic region. Darko Stančić Assistant Director & Head of Operations Europe and Central Asia DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia Content Introductory remarks ........................................................................................................ 1 I. Fragile areas in Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken ............................................................ 2 1. Historical context .................................................................................................. 2 2. Structural and proximate causes .......................................................................... 5 3. Security actors ..................................................................................................... 9 4. Assessment of the state of fragility ..................................................................... 10 5. Confidence building and conflict resolution initiatives ......................................... 12 II. The Tajik civil war and its consequences ................................................................ 22 1. Historical context ................................................................................................ 22 2. Causes of the Tajikistan civil war ........................................................................ 26 3. Mapping conflict actors ....................................................................................... 28 4. Assessing fragilities in Tajikistan and confidence building initiatives ................... 30 III. The complexity of Fergana Valley: from violence against the Meskhetian Turks to the Andijan events .................................................................................................. 47 1. Historical developments ..................................................................................... 47 2. Structural and proximate causes leading to the Andijan unrest ........................... 60 3. Mapping security actors ...................................................................................... 62 4. Assessment of fragilities ..................................................................................... 63 IV. Environmental nationalism and fragility in Karakalpakstan ...................................... 67 1. Historical context ................................................................................................ 67 2. Causes of fragility in Karakalpakstan .................................................................. 70 3. Mapping security actors ...................................................................................... 73 4. Current developments and state of fragility in Karakalpakstan ............................ 73 V. The enclaves in central Asia ................................................................................... 77 1. Historical developments ..................................................................................... 79 2. Profiles of enclaves ............................................................................................ 80 2. Causes of fragilities ............................................................................................ 82 3. Mapping security actors in Vorukh, Sokh, Shahimardan, and Barak.................... 85 4. Current developments and the stage of fragility in Vorukh, Sokh, Shahimardan, and Barak ............................................................................................................... 88 5. Confidence building and conflict resolution initiatives ......................................... 91 VI. The case study of Bagys and Turkestanets ............................................................ 95 1. Historical developments ..................................................................................... 95 2. Structural and proximate causes of fragility in Bagys and Turkestanets .............. 99 3. Security actors ................................................................................................. 100 4. Conflict resolution and recent developments..................................................... 100 Mapping Fragile Areas: Case Studies from Central Asia Introductory remarks I am pleased to have led the research team for this study. Composed of extremely knowl- edgeable individuals from DCAF’s Europe and Central Asia Division, I am thankful for the substantial time they devoted in making this publication possible. The study explores fragile and conflict-affected areas in Central Asia. Its objective is twofold: to increase the knowl- edge of the international community, and to serve as a practical tool to support the prepa- ration of needs assessment and the identification of new entry points for security sector reform programming in Central Asia. For each case study, a comprehensive historical background is provided, which identifies the most im portant events that have impacted the level of fragility. The study then examines the causes of fragility, which include both long-term ‘structural’ and short-term ‘proximate’ causes. Depending on the context, these may be influenced by security, political and geo- political, economic, environmental, ethnic, cultural, and religious issues. Each case study then identifies the key security or conflict actors, namely those who are positively or neg- atively affected by the fragility or conflict in question. These may include actors directly involved in hostilities, or those indirectly affected by dynamics related to fragility or conflict. It follows by considering the dynamics of fragility through highlighting recent developments and identifying the stage of fragility. An analysis of responses to these, including confidence building and conflict resolution initiatives, is then presented. These include initiatives
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