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Stratfor 2021 ADVANTAGE TALIBAN ADVANTAGE TALIBAN: Lt Gen PR Kumar, PVSM, AVSM, WILL TALIBAN BE ABLE VSM (Retd), former Director General of Military Operations. He continues to TO CLOSE OUT THE write and talk on international and MATCH? regional security and strategic issues. Ground Situation in Afghanistan as on 01 Jun 21 TTaltaTalYo ur text here Source: Stratfor 2021 2 'We have won the war, America has lost'i, saiys Haji Hekmat, Taliban’s shadow Mayor in Balkh district to BBC correspondent on 15 Apr 21. Interestingly the Government forces stay within their base, as the territory belongs/is controlled by Taliban. This is the case in many districts/towns in Afghanistan.In addition to a stronghold in the strategically important Southern province of Helmand, the Taliban controls or contests territory in nearly every province, and continues to threaten multiple provincial capitals. Taliban has control of the Southern and South-west portion of Afghanistan. On 03 May 21, a series of bomb blasts outside a school in Kabul killed dozens of people, mostly students. The death toll in a horrific bombing at a girls’ school in the Afghan capital has soared to 50, and over 100 wounded, the Interior Ministry said on 04 May 21. Officials blamed the Taliban who denied they were involved in the bombing and condemned it. Meanwhile, the hash tag “Afghans Want Permanent Ceasefire” trended in Afghanistan on Facebook and Twitter in the lead-up to Eidii. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told the Reuters news agency that the social media trend was an “emotional thing” and that the group “respected” these emotions. “But a ceasefire is something bigger than emotion, it is related to the larger issue of our country,” he said, adding that there would be no permanent ceasefire until the group’s goal of restoring an Islamic government is achieved. A three-day ceasefire agreed by the warring Taliban and Afghan government come into force as celebrations for the Muslim holiday of Eid ulFitr got underway, after weeks of heavy fighting across the country. The temporary deal starting 13 May21 was proposed by the Taliban and agreed to by President Ashraf Ghani. The Taliban and the Afghan government launched peace talks in September last year, but progress has stalled despite international efforts to jump-start the negotiations. Ceasefires in the past have largely held, in what is widely thought to be an exercise by the Taliban leadership to prove they have firm control over the myriad factions across the country that make up the hardline movement. While the Taliban have avoided engaging US troops, they have stepped up attacks against Afghan government forces. Taliban Continue to Capture Territory in Afghanistan. The Taliban have reportedly captured at least twenty-six Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) outposts and bases, along with four district centres, in the provinces of Laghman, Baghlan, Wardak, and Ghazni since the beginning of Mayiii. On 15 May after the ceasefire announcement, Taliban fighters seized Nerkh district, which lies in Wardak province about 40kms from Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul. Several highways run through Nerkh. While the US and NATO forces have pledged to withdraw their troops by September 11, the US military has completed an estimated 16–25 percent 3 of the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan, US Central Command saidiv. Military officials said they hope to have troops fully withdrawn by mid-Jul. The NATO led ‘Resolute Support Mission’ has indicated that its withdrawal will be co-terminus with US forces. Afghan Government forces conducted operations last week of May 21 that aimed to retake four districts in central and eastern Afghanistan from the Taliban, according to reports. The defence ministry said at least ninety Taliban fighters were killed across eleven provinces in a twenty-four-hour period. The Afghan Taliban on May 26, 2021, warned nearby nations against allowing the United States to use their territory for operations in the country after they withdraw from Afghanistan. On 25 May 21, Australian PM Scott Morrison announced closing its embassy. Taliban reacted saying it will provide ‘safe environment’ The Taliban has conducted sputtering talks with the Afghan government in Apr 21 in Turkey. The Taliban has promised to renew attacks on US and NATO personnel if foreign troops are not out by the deadline; and said in a statement it would not participate in “any conference” about Afghanistan’s future until all “foreign forces” have departed. It is not clear whether the militants will follow through with the earlier threats given Biden’s plan for a phased withdrawal between now and Septemberv. Background Overview: The Doha Peace Accord Followed by the Biden Plan Bidens Peace Plan: follow up on Trump Plan. Trump astounded the World after more than a year of direct negotiations, by signing a peace agreement on February 29, 2020 (Doha Accord) with the Taliban, that set a timeline of 18 months for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.The Taliban pledged to prevent territory under their control from being used by terrorist groups and enter into negotiations with the Afghan government by March 2020, which were tentatively started in Sep 20 and immediately floundered. The Biden administration has proposed a modified peace plan to the Afghan government and the Taliban, seeking to bring violence to a halt and form an interim government. The proposal included many elements; first, an UN-led conference of representatives of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US “to discuss a unified approach to support peace in Afghanistan”; share written proposals with the Afghan leadership and the Taliban to accelerate talks. It urges both sides to reach a consensus on Afghanistan’s future constitutional and governing arrangements (the Taliban and the Afghan government still disagree on fundamental issues, including whether the country should remain a republic or even retain any features of electoral democracy); third, find a road map to a new “inclusive interim government”vi; and lastly, 4 agree on the terms of a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire”. Essentially, the Biden administration is attempting to embed the peace process in a wider regional framework. The Biden administration has chosen a more decisive course in Afghanistan and has to make substantial movement on above aspects before final withdrawal. Cutting all rhetoric to the bone, ALL Nations want mainly two things, which need not necessarily be aligned to Afghan interests specially its people. • An Afghanistan aligned to their interests. • Their strategic space, influence and economic payoffs are bettered, whatever the political dispensation, while ensuring ‘no spread of jihadi culture leading to terrorismvii’. Despite this new agreement, there is still no official cease-fire in place, and both sides including the US and NATO forces have launched attacks (US air targeting has actually increased) on each other till date. Taliban have restricted their attacks on ANSF, their bases, and government targets, and madesubstantial territorial gains. The Taliban have also carried out high- profile attacks across the country, including in Kabul. There is a disagreement on the timing of the release of five thousand Taliban prisoners. The Taliban expects the prisoners to be released before talks can proceed, while the Afghan government plans to release the prisoners after the negotiations make some headway. The Islamic State in Khorasan has also continued to expand its presence in several eastern Afghan provinces (sources talk of five provinces), continues to carry out major attacks in Kabul, and is responsible for an increase in suicide attacks targeting civilians. Uncertainty surrounding the future of international donor assistance has strained the Afghan economy. While the United States, its allies and international institutions and NGOs have pledged to provide support to Kabul, the transition to a peacetime economy risks further destabilizing Afghan society by inflating the budget deficit and increasing unemployment rates. Regional Geo-Politics. China and Pakistan Commons. Once Taliban comes to power use jihad and terrorism to create trouble, and exploit the facade of ambiguity. The longer the conflict more clout China and Pakistan will have with Taliban and thus in Afghanistan. They will enhance their geo-strategic and political clout in the region and leverage it with Iran, CAR, and Russia. Keep India out of Afghanistan, and constrict its strategic space. China. Integrate CPEC with Afghanistan (Pakistan may not be too pleased), enhance land route of BRI towards CAR, Russia and Europe. 5 Pakistan. Cement its notion of strategic depth against India, keep Durand Line issue quiet and formalise it, opportunities for trade, entry into CAR, access to Middle East, influence Iran and play power broker in Middle East specially KSA and Turkey. Russia. Russia’s own security and geopolitical interests make it an interested party in a stable Afghanistan and in putting an end to armed conflict in the region.Its concern is that in the event of heightening instability, threat of extremist and radical ideology and violence could spill over into Central Asia and cause destabilisation close to Russia’s borders. Iran. Seat of Shia Islam, Iran has historically been at ideological odds with a powerful Sunni Taliban. Tehran nurtures high-level contacts with the Taliban aimed at stopping the growth of the Islamic State-Khorasan in the region and get US out of its underbelly. Currently adopted two-pronged approach; one regional in nature, and second in the context of Iran’s fractured relations with the US. Flipside. There is also a flipside to Taliban usurping power or having a major say in geo-politics in Afghanistan. It can bite back like the proverbial snake. • Spread of jihadi culture. • Taliban like others has never accepted the Durand Line (renewed demand for Pakhtunistan). It can cause instability as also interfere in China’s handling of Uighurs in Xinjiang, by supporting them (a threat which China takes very seriously).
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