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Taliban Fragmentation FACT, FICTION, and FUTURE by Andrew Watkins
PEACEWORKS Taliban Fragmentation FACT, FICTION, AND FUTURE By Andrew Watkins NO. 160 | MARCH 2020 Making Peace Possible NO. 160 | MARCH 2020 ABOUT THE REPORT This report examines the phenomenon of insurgent fragmentation within Afghanistan’s Tali- ban and implications for the Afghan peace process. This study, which the author undertook PEACE PROCESSES as an independent researcher supported by the Asia Center at the US Institute of Peace, is based on a survey of the academic literature on insurgency, civil war, and negotiated peace, as well as on interviews the author conducted in Afghanistan in 2019 and 2020. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andrew Watkins has worked in more than ten provinces of Afghanistan, most recently as a political affairs officer with the United Nations. He has also worked as an indepen- dent researcher, a conflict analyst and adviser to the humanitarian community, and a liaison based with Afghan security forces. Cover photo: A soldier walks among a group of alleged Taliban fighters at a National Directorate of Security facility in Faizabad in September 2019. The status of prisoners will be a critical issue in future negotiations with the Taliban. (Photo by Jim Huylebroek/New York Times) The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2020 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202.457.1700 Fax: 202.429.6063 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.usip.org Peaceworks No. -
Terrorist Organizations Leadership Takeover Mechanisms Within : ΩϭοϭϣϟϤϭϧϋ Terrorist Organizations 02/11/2016 : ΈηϧϟΦϳέύη
Leadership Takeover Mechanisms within : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Terrorist Organizations Leadership Takeover Mechanisms within : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Terrorist Organizations 02/11/2016 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ Recently, many terrorist organizations, such as the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Almoravids in the Western Sahara, and Boko Haram in Nigeria, have witnessed radical changes in leadership, which have had an influence on these organizations as a whole. These changes had an evident impact on the activities of these organizations and how they faced the pressures imposed upon them by the states or other terrorist organizations. These changes are reflected in the various types of relations between these organizations, which vary from alliance to competition, and from conflict to balance. Remarkably, in this context, there is no one mechanism for dealing with the leadership shift inside these organizations. These shifts are attributed to several factors, relations with the other terrorist organizations, the external pressures facing them, and their ability to devote their efforts to internal cohesion and harmony among different wings of operation. Fundamental Characteristics: After the death of Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in May 2016 by a U.S. drone which targeted his parade, the movement¶s Shura council issued a decree that Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada would be the leader of the movement, following his position as vice leader tothe former leader. Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani network, and Mullah Yaqoub, son of the former leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, were appointed as vice leaders for Akhundzada. Following the death of Zahran Alloush, Commander of Jaysh Al Islam organization in Syria, in December 2015 due to a Russian raidEssam Al Buwaydhani, nicknamed Abo Hammam, was appointed as his successor. -
The Taliban's Survival
Global-Local Interactions: Journal of International Relations http://ejournal.umm.ac.id/index.php/GLI/index ISSN: 2657-0009 Vol. 1, No. 2, July 2020, Pp. 38-46 THE TALIBAN'S SURVIVAL: FROM POST-2001 INSURGENCY TO 2020 PEACE DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES Taufiq -E- Faruque Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh Article Info Abstract Article history: The 2020 United States (US)-Taliban peace deal has essentially made the Received August 18, 2020 Taliban movement as one of the most durable and resilient insurgent groups in Revised November 26, 2020 today's world. Following the 'levels of analysis' of international relations as an Accepted December 04, 2020 analytical framework, this paper explores the reasons behind the survival of the Available online December 12, 2020 Taliban insurgency in an integrative framework that organizes the individual and group, state, and international level dynamics of this insurgency in a single Cite: account. The paper argues that the defection of politically and economically Faruque, Taufiq -E-. (2020). The Taliban’s marginalized individual Afghans, the multilayered and horizontal structure of the Survival: From Post-2001 Insurgency to 2020 Taliban insurgency, regional power configuration in South Asia, and the lack of Peace Deal with The United States. Global- a coherent post-invasion strategy of the US and its allies factored into the Local Interaction: Journal of International survival of the Taliban insurgency that resulted in a peace deal between the Relations, 1(2). Taliban and the US. * Corresponding author. Keywords: Taliban, Afghanistan, insurgency, United States, peace deal Taufiq -E- Faruque E-mail address: [email protected] Introduction It was hard to imagine that the Taliban would be able to mount a resilient challenge to a large-scale commitment of forces by the US and its allies. -
ITS | USFP Afghan Peace Process Diplomatic Brief
Diplomatic Brief Afghan Peace Process Background • In February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement that would eventually lead to the first direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government since 2001. • After months of negotiations, the Afghan government and the Taliban agreed in December 2020 to the principles and procedures that would govern the peace talks – the first big step towards a peace agreement. • On April 14, 2021, the Biden administration announced that the United States would be withdrawing all troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. • The peace talks are taking place concurrently with a campaign of targeted assassinations and attacks against Afghani civil servants, media figures, members of the judiciary, and other government o"cials. A vast majority of these attacks can be directly traced to the Taliban and their a"liates. Key Players United States of America Republic of India • Antony Blinken, Secretary of State • Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External • Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, Special A#airs Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Islamic Republic of Pakistan Afghan Government • Mohammad Sadiq Khan, Special Envoy to • Mohammed Masoum Stanekzai, Chief Negotiator Afghanistan and Advisor to the President on Internal Security • Muhemmed Aejaz, Head of the Pakistani • Abdullah Abdullah, Chair of Afghanistan’s High Delegation Council for National Reconciliation Taliban Republic of Turkey • Mawlavi Abdul Hakim, Chief Negotiator • Mevlut Cavusoglu, Foreign Minister • Abdul Ghani Baradar , Deputy Chief Negotiator • Hakan Tekin, Director General for South Asia People’s Republic of China United Nations • Lui Jian, Special Envoy for Afghanistan • Deborah Lyons, Head of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Russian Federation • Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister • Zamir Kabulov, Presidential Special Envoy for Afghanistan USFP Programme 1 Significance The United States’ invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 toppled the then Taliban-controlled government. -
Summary of Information on Jihadist Websites the Second Half of May 2016
ICT Jihadi Monitoring Group PERIODIC REVIEW Bimonthly Report Summary of Information on Jihadist Websites The Second Half of May 2016 International Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT) Additional resources are available on the ICT Website: www.ict.org.il This report summarizes notable events discussed on jihadist Web forums during the second half of May 2016. Following are the main points covered in the report: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan announces the death of its leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, as a result of a US drone strike, and the appointment of the organization’s new leader, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada. As a result of the announcement, members of the Emirate and some Al-Qaeda branches give eulogies in Akhtar Mansour’s memory. Meanwhile, members of the Taliban in Afghanistan swear allegiance to the new leader of the Emirate. Abu Muhammad al-‘Adnani, the spokesman for the Islamic State, calls on supporters of the organization to help it carry out terrorist attacks on western soil using any means and provides permission for the killing of all civilians in the west. In addition, al-‘Adnani accuses rebel factions in Syria, including Al-Nusra Front, of joining the infidel forces and collaborating with the US and coalition forces. Abu Abdullah al-Shami, a member of Al-Nusra Front’s Shura Council, accuses the US of foiling the Syrian revolution and supporting the Alawite regime. According to him, this trend only serves to encourage the organization’s fighters to keep fighting. In addition, al-Shami calls on all jihad factions in Syria to continue jihad until they achieve their goals. -
Message of Felicitation of the Esteemed Amir-Ul-Mumineen Sheikh-Ul-Hadith Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada (May Allah Protect Him) on the Occasion of Eid-Ul- Fitr
() () Essential Reading Message of Felicitation of the Esteemed Amir-ul-Mumineen Sheikh-ul-Hadith Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada (may Allah protect him) on the occasion of Eid-ul- Fitr (https://alemarahenglish.net/? p=45749) Directives to Mujahideen by the Leadership of Islamic Emirate concerning a three-day Eid ceasefire (https://alemarahenglish.net/? p=45749) May 9, 2021 In the name of Allah, the Most Merciful, the Most Compassionate All praise be to Allah. We praise Him and seek His help and forgiveness. And we also seek His refuge from the evils of our inner selves and from our wicked deeds. Whoever is guided by (https://alemarahenglish.net/? Allah, there is none to mislead him and whoever is left by Allah in error, there will be none as a p=45705) guide for him (except Allah). I testify there is no god by Allah, alone is He and has no Statement of Islamic Emirate associate, and I testify that Muhammad is His Servant and Messenger, peace be upon him, his concerning persecution of Muslim family and companions, and those who will follow them in righteousness till the Day of Palestinians by Israelis Judgment. (https://alemarahenglish.net/? p=45705) ﻗﺎل ﷲ ﺗﻌﺎﻟﯽ : ﯾَﺎ أَﯾﱡ َﮭﺎ اﻟﱠ ِﺬ َﯾﻦ آﻣﻨُﻮا إن ﺗَ ُﻨﺼ ُﺮوا ﱠﷲَ ﯾَ ُﻨﺼ ْﺮ ُﻛﻢ َوﯾُﺜَﺒﱢ ْﺖ أَ ْﻗ َﺪاﻣ ُﻜﻢ ﴿٧﴾ ﺳﻮرة ﻣﺤﻤﺪ َ ِ ْ َ ْ May 8, 2021 Allah (SwT) says: O you who believe! If you support Allah (His religion and Messenger), He will help you (in overcoming the enemy) and make your feet firm (during battle). -
Afghanistan Prayer Guide
AFGHANISTAN PRAYER GUIDE POPULATION: 38 million PRESIDENT: Ashraf Ghani MUSLIM POPULATION: 99.7% - 37,886,000 TALIBAN LEADER: Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada BIBLICAL LOCATION: Cabul or Kabul LANGUAGE: Pashto / Dari (Afghan Persian/Farsi) Living conditions There are four main tribes: Pashtun, Hazara, Tajiks, and Uzbeks. Homes are made of brick in the wealthier areas and clay in the poorer areas. Afghanistan is aected by frequent earthquakes, mostly small ones that are dicult on those who live in apartments. In Kabul, the capital, there is a major Taliban influence and violence is an issue most locals fear. Each year Afghans experience a "harsh winter" reaching temperatures down to -16 degrees Fahrenheit, making it dangerous for children and poorer families, causing illnesses and death in the harsh weather. How dangerous is it to be Christian? Afghanistan is ranked #2 of the most dangerous nations for Christians in the world - behind North Korea. There is less of an issue with the government and more with the terrorist group who influence Afghans as well as average people who become upset and have the right to kill a Christian. The government is trying to stop the terrorists groups, but are not strong enough to combat all of the diculties Afghanistan faces. Foreign believers are allowed to be Christians, but they are not allowed to preach Christianity. If locals believe a foreigner has disrespected their religion, they have the right to kill them. Islamic law has categories for sin, and sin like homicide, can be justified and forgiven. Prophetic -
Mcmaster Warns Afghan Peace Talks Will Fail, Leave U.S. Vulnerable
Page 2 | NATIONAL Afghanistan’s peace negotiations validate U.S. withdrawal Page 3 | ECONOMY Taliban — the rise, Representatives of the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban ADB Pledges $100mn to retreat and resurgence movement have begun formal direct peace negotiations. The two ... Afghanistan to Counter of jihadists COVID-19 Impacts Page 2 | NATIONAL Kabul Herat Nangarhar Balkh 28 / 12 31 / 18 34 / 20 30 / 16 Your Gateway to Afghanistan & the Region Tuesday, September 22, 2020 Issue No. 838 www.heartofasia.af 10 afs McMaster warns Afghan peace talks will fail, leave U.S. vulnerable UNAMA Concern security forces continue to bear the about ‘Intensity’ of brunt of this fight.” Instead, McMaster called for a Civilian Casualties reinforcement in the partnership in Afghanistan between the US military and its The United Nations Assistance Mission allies around the world, saying in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on a statement that plans to withdraw US troops Sunday said they are concern over from places like Germany and increasing number of civilian casualties, Afghanistan are “mistakes.” urging parties to “take immediate” Instead, McMaster called for a actions to avoid innocent people dying. reinforcement in the partnership “As we celebrate International Peace between the US military and its Day, a reminder of the toll war is taking allies around the world, saying on Afghanistan’s civilians,” said UNAMA that plans to withdraw US troops in a tweet. “We’re concerned by high from places like Germany and numbers of civilian casualties & urge parties to take immediate measures Afghanistan are “mistakes.” to protect them, and create conducive “They’re consistent with, I think, atmosphere for Doha peace talks.” this sentiment that you see really According to UNMAN’s assessment, across both political parties for civilian casualties indicate the intensity retrenchment or withdrawal from of conflict in Afghanistan, saying at least complex problem sets overseas,” 20 killed and 39 wounded, including he said. -
Incremental Peace in Afghanistan Accord ISSUE 27 an International Review of Peace Initiatives
Logo using multiply on 27 layers Accord ISSUE Editors an international review of peace initiatives Logo drawn as seperate elements with overlaps Anna Larson and coloured seperately Alexander Ramsbotham 2018 Incremental peace in Afghanistan 27 Accord ISSUE an international review of peace initiatives Incremental peace in Afghanistan June 2018 // Editors Anna Larson and Alexander Ramsbotham Accord // ISSUE 27 // www.c-r.org Published by Conciliation Resources, to inform and strengthen peace processes worldwide by documenting and analysing the lessons of peacebuilding Published by Acknowledgements Conciliation Resources We would like to give special thanks to Professor Burghley Yard, 106 Burghley Road Michael Semple for his extensive expert advice London, NW5 1AL and substantive editorial input and support for www.c-r.org this Accord publication. Professor Semple's experience, insights and ideas have been Telephone +44 (0)207 359 7728 integral to conceptual development and practical Fax +44 (0)207 359 4081 implementation throughout this Accord project. Email [email protected] We would also like to thank the following: Charity registered in England and Wales Ali Wardak, Heela Najibullah, Christine Bell, (1055436). Company limited by guarantee Charlotte Morris, Scott Worden, Sippi Azerbaijani registered in England and Wales (03196482). Moghaddam, Jonathan Cohen, Ed Hadley, Chris Sell, Jawed Nader, Noah Coburn, Erika Tarzi, Editors Kate Clark, Emma Leslie, Veronika Tesarova, Anna Larson and Alexander Ramsbotham Beatrice Liese, Timor Sharan, Sayed -
Intra-Afghan Talks Commence in Doha, Qatar
INSIGHTi Intra-Afghan Talks Commence in Doha, Qatar September 16, 2020 On September 12, 2020, Afghan government and Taliban representatives officially met to begin inaugural direct peace negotiations in Doha, Qatar, a significant moment with potentially dramatic implications for the course of the Afghan conflict. The United States, whose military involvement in Afghanistan is approaching its twentieth year, helped facilitate the talks while withdrawing U.S. military forces from the country. As negotiators begin their work, U.S. officials, including Members of Congress, are expected to closely follow the negotiations, given the impact that a settlement could have on U.S. interests such as human rights and counterterrorism. Background After eighteen months of negotiations, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement on February 29, 2020, laying out a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. and international troops in return for counterterrorism assurances by the Taliban. The pact also outlined plans for talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government (which was not a party to the agreement) by March 2020. Intra-Afghan talks remained unscheduled for months amid complications that included gridlock in Kabul due to the disputed September 2019 presidential election, delays to a prisoner exchange between Taliban and the Afghan government, and ongoing violence. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, Ghani’s electoral opponent and former partner in a unity government, agreed in May 2020 to end the impasse and appoint Abdullah as chairman of the newly created High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) to oversee talks with the Taliban. The prisoner exchange was completed in early September 2020. -
Afghanistan Anti-Government Elements (Ages)
European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan Anti-Government Elements (AGEs) Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan Anti-Government Elements (AGEs) Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). PDF ISBN: 978-92-9485-648-7 doi: 10.2847/14756 BZ0220563ENN © European Asylum Support Office (EASO) 2020 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, unless otherwise stated. For third-party materials reproduced in this publication, reference is made to the copyright statements of the respective third parties. Cover photo: © ResoluteSupportMedia/Major James Crawford, Kandahar, Afghanistan 11 April 2011 url CC BY 2.0 Taliban fighters met with Government of the Republic of Afghanistan officials in Kandahar City, 11 April 2011, and peacefully surrendered their arms as part of the government's peace and reintegration process. 4 — AFGHANISTAN: ANTI-GOVERNMENT ELEMENTS - EASO COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION REPORT Acknowledgements This report was drafted by the European Asylum Support Office Country of Origin Information (COI) Sector. The following national asylum and migration departments and organisations contributed by reviewing this report: Denmark, Danish Immigration Service The Netherlands, Office for Country Information and Language Analysis, Ministry of Justice ACCORD, the Austrian Centre for Country of Origin and Asylum Research and Documentation It must be noted that the review carried out by the mentioned departments and organisations contributes to the overall quality of the report, but it does not necessarily imply their formal endorsement of the final report, which is the full responsibility of EASO. -
Mission Impossible: Afghan Peace Talks
M ISSION I MPOSSIBLE: A FGHAN PEACE TALKS Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy Capstone Project Submitted by Ali Ahmad Pasoon DATE: 18 May 2017 © 2017 Pasoon http://fletcher.tufts.edu P a s o o n | 2 Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 3 Complex nature of the Afghan war ............................................................................................................... 6 Afghan conflict as a domestic insurgency .................................................................................................... 7 Position of Afghan government on peace talks ......................................................................................... 8 Position of Taliban on peace talks .......................................................................................................... 10 Major ideological and political differences ............................................................................................ 12 A) Islamic Republic or Emirate? ........................................................................................................ 13 (B) Women’s rights ............................................................................................................................. 15 (C) Sharia and Judicial system ............................................................................................................ 16 (D) Foreign policy and external alliances ..........................................................................................