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Nagacorp (3918 HK) 18 August 2014 HK & China / Gaming Trawling for Bigger Fish We Initiate Coverage of Nagacorp with a Buy Rating and Target BUY Price of HK$7.90

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Nagacorp (3918 HK) 18 August 2014 HK & China / Gaming Trawling for Bigger Fish We Initiate Coverage of Nagacorp with a Buy Rating and Target BUY Price of HK$7.90 Equities Hong Kong/China Initial Coverage Company Report NagaCorp (3918 HK) 18 August 2014 HK & China / Gaming Trawling for Bigger Fish We initiate coverage of NagaCorp with a Buy rating and target BUY price of HK$7.90. 2013-14 marks a transitional period for the Share Target company and we believe it is making astute moves in building Upside VIP growth through new initiatives, bolstering its mass market Price Price presence and expanding beyond Cambodia. All these should HK$6.48 HK$7.90 21.9% become earnings growth drivers in the long run. We forecast a 20% net profit CAGR over FY14-16E. (As of 15 Aug 2014) Igniting VIP business. NagaCorp has introduced a revenue-sharing program for junkets that effectively increases Eva Yip, CFA their commission from 1.7% to 2%. The new junket incentives (852) 2530 8226 should help bring in more serious, higher rolling gamers. We [email protected] forecast a 25% CAGR for VIP rollings, boosted by additional VIP capacity and the new VIP initiatives attracting junket 52-week price range (HK$) 6.18-8.80 clients from Macau from 2015. Div yield % 5.19 Bolstering mass market presence. Growth in the mass market should be driven by higher visitor numbers and rising Latest Key Data spending by mass market players, supported by economic FF no of shares (m) 1,330 growth in Indochina. To cater for the mainland Chinese market, FF (%) 58.29 NagaCorp is working to improve travel services from the PRC FF market cap (HK$ m) 8,620 to Cambodia. We expect growth in buy-ins to continue at a 12M daily turnover (HK$ m) 39.69 12M volatility (%) 37.80 rapid pace, with a 17% CAGR. 12M Hi/Lo (HK$) 6.18-8.80 PEG 2014-16E (x) 1.19 Naga2/3 and entry into new gaming jurisdiction. Naga2 will RoAE 2013 (%) 28.01 double NagaCorp’s capacity and additional traffic should fuel PBR 2014E (x) 3.02 earnings in the long term. NagaCorp also plans to enter a new Net debt/equity 2013 (%) Net cash gaming jurisdiction, Russia. Since the Russian project is still at the negotiation phase, we do not factor it in our target price, though we do expect it to become an additional long-term Performance (%) earnings driver and help NagaCorp diversify its growth profile. 1M YTD 12M Absolute 0.5 (20.7) (5.1) Valuation. Our target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts Relative to HSCEI (5.9) (23.3) (13.8) (SOTP) valuation of NagaCorp’s properties. We apply a 10x EV/EBITDA to NagaWorld’s FY15E EBITDA and 10x to Naga2’s FY19E EBITDA. We discount the enterprise value of Major Shareholder (%) Naga2 at 12.4% and have already factored the coming share Tan Sri Dr Chen Lip Keong 41.71 dilution into our target price. We initiate coverage with a Buy Free float 58.29 rating and a target price of HK$7.90. Investment Summary Price Chart FY-end Dec 31 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E (HK$) Turnover (HK$ m) Turnover (US$ m) 278.8 344.9 410.3 503.3 596.7 Growth (%) 24.6 23.7 18.9 22.7 18.6 NAGACORP LTD HSI 9.60 1,800 Net Profit (US$ m) 113.1 140.3 153.0 186.0 219.2 8.60 1,600 Growth (%) 22.9 24.0 9.1 21.6 17.9 7.60 1,400 EPS (US cents) 5.4 6.3 6.7 6.9 8.2 6.60 1,200 Growth (%) 22.9 15.7 6.8 3.5 17.9 5.60 1,000 PER (x) 15.3 13.2 12.4 12.0 10.2 4.60 800 OCF/Share (US cents) 6.3 6.7 7.3 6.2 7.8 3.60 600 PBR (x) 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.60 400 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5 9.2 8.1 6.7 5.4 1.60 200 0.60 0 DPS (US cents) 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.7 09/2011 05/2012 01/2013 09/2013 05/2014 Yield (%) 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.9 Sources: Bloomberg, CER estimates Sources: Company, CER estimates China Everbright Research Limited Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page HK & CHINA / GAMING Investment Thesis Competitive franchise, well placed to benefit from growing Asian market NagaCorp has a competitive business franchise compared with global listed casino stocks. Competitive advantages include monopoly operations and low operating costs. It is the only integrated casino-hotel operator within 200 km of Cambodia’s capital Phnom Penh and this status is guaranteed up to 2035, with no limit on the number of gaming tables. Costs are low due to the long amortization period for gaming licenses, low staff costs and a favourable tax rate which is equivalent to 2% of gross gaming revenues. Figure 1: Cambodia offers NagaCorp a favourable tax rate Mass VIP 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Cambodia Korea Philippines Singapore Malaysia Macau (foreigners only) Sources: Companies and CER In addition, Phnom Penh is only a short flight from highly populated countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and China. This unique geographical position should help it capture the growth potential of Southeast Asia’s gaming market. The number of casinos in the region is set to increase as more governments pass gaming legislation in a bid to boost tourism, but fast-growing local economies should ensure plenty of demand. Figure 2: Cambodia is close to populous countries and with increasing accessibility Beijing North Phnom Penh: 8 flights/week (7 hrs, 5 mins) Korea Shanghai Phnom Penh: 7 flights/week (4 hrs, 15 mins) Siem Reap: 6 flights/week (3 hrs, 50 mins) Japan South Korea Guangzhou Phnom Penh: 14 flights/week (2 hrs, 45 mins) Siem Reap: 10 flights/week (2 hrs, 50 mins) Nanning China Seoul Phnom Penh: 14 flights/week (5 hrs, 25 mins) Phnom Penh: 2 flights/week (3 hrs, 35 mins) Siem Reap: 14 flights/week (5 hrs, 25 mins) Vientiane Phnom Penh: 10 flights/week (1 hr, 20 mins) Siem Reap: 4 flights/week (2 hrs, 55 mins) Taiwan Taipei Phnom Penh: 10 flights/week (3 hrs, 25 mins) Myanmar Laos Yangon Philippines Phnom Penh: 2 flights/week (1 hr, 25 mins) Thailand Siem Reap: 2 flights/week (2 hrs, 10 mins) Hong Kong Phnom Penh: 10 flights/week (2 hrs, 35 mins) Vietnam Siem Reap: 4 flights/week (2 hrs, 45 mins) Phnom Penh Bangkok Manila Phnom Penh: 56 flights/week (1 hr, 10 mins) Siem Reap: 3 flights/week (2 hrs, 45 mins) Siem Reap: 42 flights/week (1 hr, 10 mins) Hanoi Phnom Penh: 12 flights/week (3 hrs, 20 mins) Siem Reap: 35 flights/week (1 hr, 45 mins) Kuala Lumpur Singapore Malaysia Phnom Penh: 28 flights/week (1 hr, 50 mins) Siem Reap: 10 flights/week (2 hrs) Indonesia Singapore Ho Chi Minh City Phnom Penh: 29 flights/week (2 hrs) Phnom Penh: 21 flights/week (45 mins) Siem Reap: 35 flights/week (1 hr, 20 mins) Siem Reap: 10 flights/week (2 hrs, 10 mins) 500 km Sources: Company and CER China Everbright Research Limited Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page 2 HK & CHINA / GAMING Igniting VIP business NagaCorp had previously adopted a conservative approach to its VIP business, with low maximum bets and limited credit terms. The company revamped its VIP strategy after fundraising in 2013 helped strengthen its balance sheet. First, it has introduced a revenue-sharing program for junkets that effectively increases their commission from 1.7% to 2%, much higher than the 1.25% in Macau. The new junket incentives should help bring in more serious, higher rolling gamers, particularly Chinese VIP players. This market is currently under-represented at NagaCorp, reflected in 90% of 1H14 rollings coming from Southeast Asia. The company is close to signing agreements with eight Macau junket operators, pending compliance checks with internal policies. Once these agreements are in place, the company’s new VIP initiatives should start bearing fruit in 2015. Figure 3: NagaCorp’s VIP segment vs. Macau VIP segment Macau NagaCorp NagaCorp old US$ commission revenue sharing commission Comments model model model Rollings 100 100 100 Gross gaming revenue (GGR) @ win rate of 2.85% 2.85 2.85 2.85 Theoretical win rate for VIP business Macau: 1.25% cap on VIP rollings Junket commission 1.25 2.00 1.70 NagaCorp: 70% of net win/revenue new initiatives; 1.7% of rollings under old scheme Casino profit before gaming 1.60 0.86 1.15 NagaCorp shares more profit with junkets tax Gaming tax 1.11 0.04 0.04 39% of revenue for Macau and 1.5% for NagaCorp Casino profit 0.49 0.81 1.11 Assumes no operating costs, such as F&B Junkets have more incentive to bring in currently Junket sharing of GGR (%) 43.8 70.0 59.6 underserved higher-quality players Sources: Company and CER Second, maximum bet per hand for VIPs has been increased from US$24k to US$200k, which should increase the pool and help mitigate volatility in the win rate. The theoretical win rate for VIP business is 2.85%, but NagaCorp recorded win rates of only 2.3-2.5% over FY09-12 with a rebound to 2.9% in FY13 and 3.6% in 1H14. Furthermore, although gross gaming revenue shifting towards VIP will increase commission costs and lower blended margin, the effect on the bottom line could be offset by a significant increase in volume.
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