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Nagacorp Beneficiary from Increased Chinese Investment in Cambodia

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Nagacorp Beneficiary from Increased Chinese Investment in Cambodia Equity Research February 5, 2018 NagaCorp Beneficiary from increased Chinese investment in Cambodia Investment Focus Maintain BUY Action Ticker 03918.HK We reiterate our BUY rating on NagaCorp (3918.HK) and raise our CICC investment rating BUY target price by 35.6% to HK$8, implying 21.2% upside room from the Last close HK$6.60 current price. CICC target HK$8.00 52wk price range HK$6.69~3.18 Reasoning Market cap (bn) HK$29 VIP business could benefit from Chinese investment in Cambodia. Daily value (mn) HK$23.86 Shares outstanding (mn) 4,341 China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Cambodia on January 10–11 and Free float (%) 100 signed 19 agreements regarding future economic partnerships. We Daily volume (mn sh) 3.77 believe the increase in Mainland investment in Cambodia could be Business sector Gaming beneficial to Naga’s VIP business as 1) Chinese business owners will visit Phnom Penh more frequently; and 2) more Chinese expatriates 03918.HK HSI will relocate to Cambodia. 160 From our channel checks, junkets have noticed an increase of Chinese 140 patrons making trips to Phnom Penh. We believe one of Macau’s 120 largest junkets could begin fixed junket room operations at Naga 2 100 as early as late 1Q18. (%) Value Relative 80 NagaCorp will report FY2017 results on February 6. We expect EBITDA 60 Feb-2017 May-2017 Aug-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 and net profit to be US$336mn and US$252mn, respectively 12% and 15% ahead of Bloomberg consensus. (US$ mn) 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Earnings forecast and valuation Revenue 532 815 1,324 1,468 We lift our FY18e revenue, EBTIDA and net profit projections by 25%, (+/-) 5.5% 53.3% 62.4% 10.9% 22% and 34% on 1) lower than expected cannibalization of Net profit 184 258 379 436 (+/-) 6.7% 39.8% 47.2% 14.9% NagaWorld’s operations post Naga 2’s opening; 2) revised gaming tax assumption (8% to 5%); and 3) stronger ramp up of Naga 2’s EPS 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.10 operations. BPS 0.48 0.32 0.37 0.42 DPS 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 Our target price of HK$8.00 for NagaCorp is based on SOTP valuation CPS 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.11 of: 1) 8x 2018e EV/EBITDA on NagaWorld; 2) 9x 2019e EV/EBITDA on P/E 12.1 14.3 9.7 8.4 Naga 2 as it fully ramps up, discounted by a WACC of 10%, and 3) P/B 1.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 adding the net cash balance at end-2018e. EV/EBITDA 7.9 10.1 6.5 5.4 Dividend yield 2.7% 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% Risks ROAA 18.3% 18.8% 23.9% 23.9% Uncertainty in timing and magnitude of gaming tax; slower than ROAE 19.0% 19.4% 25.1% 25.2% expected ramp up of Naga 2 operations. Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Shengyong GOH Kai QIAN Analyst Analyst [email protected] [email protected] SAC Reg. No.: S0080117120050 SAC Reg. No.: S0080513050004 SFC CE Ref: BEF674 SFC CE Ref: AZA933 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: February 5, 2018 Financial summary Financial statement (USD mn) 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Financial ratios 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Income statement Growth ability Revenue 532 815 1,324 1,468 Revenue 5.5% 53.3% 62.4% 10.9% COGS -165 -331 -613 -675 Operating profit 10.4% 36.5% 63.5% 14.3% Selling expenses 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 12.1% 33.6% 52.1% 13.0% Administrative expenses -53 -67 -88 -95 Net profit 6.7% 39.8% 47.2% 14.9% Other ops income (expense) -112 -141 -170 -181 Profitability Operating profit 202 276 452 517 Gross margin 69.0% 59.4% 53.7% 54.0% Finance costs 0 0 0 0 Operating margin 38.1% 33.9% 34.2% 35.2% Other income (expense) 6 6 6 6 EBITDA margin 48.2% 42.0% 39.3% 40.0% Profit before income tax 208 282 458 522 Net margin 34.6% 31.6% 28.6% 29.7% Income tax -24 -25 -79 -87 Liquidity Minority interest 0 0 0 0 Current ratio 7.18 5.61 5.33 6.86 Net profit 184 258 379 436 Quick ratio 7.18 5.61 5.33 6.86 EBITDA 256 342 520 588 Cash ratio 5.32 3.62 3.35 4.88 Recurrent net income 184 258 379 436 Liabilities / assets 3.1% 3.9% 5.4% 5.3% Balance sheet Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash Cash and bank balances 211 205 308 499 Return Trade and bill receivables 73 111 181 200 RoA 18.3% 18.8% 23.9% 23.9% Inventories 0 0 0 0 RoE 19.0% 19.4% 25.1% 25.2% Other current assets 1 1 1 1 Per-share data Total current assets 285 318 490 701 EPS (USD) 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.10 Fixed assets and CIP 904 1,039 1,131 1,144 BPS (USD) 0.48 0.32 0.37 0.42 Intangible assets and others 102 98 93 89 DPS (USD) 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 Total non-current assets 1,006 1,137 1,224 1,232 Cash flow per share (USD) 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.11 Total assets 1,291 1,455 1,715 1,933 Valuation Short-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 P/E 12.1 14.3 9.7 8.4 Trade and bill payables 37 57 92 102 P/B 1.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 Other current liabilities 3 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA 7.9 10.1 6.5 5.4 Total current liabilities 40 57 92 102 Dividend yield 2.7% 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 Total non-current liabilities 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities 40 57 92 102 Share capital 31 31 31 31 Retained profit 1,220 1,367 1,592 1,800 Equity 1,251 1,398 1,623 1,831 Total liabilities & equity 1,291 1,455 1,715 1,933 Cash flow statement Pretax profit 208 282 458 522 Depreciation & amortization 48 60 63 66 Change in working capital -31 -19 -34 -10 Others -24 -27 -79 -87 Cash flow from operations 202 296 408 491 Capital expenditure -137 -191 -150 -73 Others 1 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing -136 -191 -150 -73 Equity financing 120 0 0 0 Bank borrowings 0 0 0 0 Others -118 -110 -155 -227 Cash flow from financing 2 -110 -155 -227 Foreign exchange gain (loss) 0 0 0 0 Net changes in cash 68 -6 103 190 Source: Company data, CICC Research Company description NagaCorp Limited is a leisure and tourism company with casino operations, with the company founder Dr. Chen as its substantial shareholder. It operates the largest integrated gaming and entertainment hotel complex in Cambodia – NagaWorld, which is the only licensed casino in the capital city of Phnom Penh. The license is valid for 70 years from 2 Jan 1995 and is exclusive within a designated area until 2035. NagaCorp had reported EBITDA margin of 48% in 2016 and held 241 gaming tables and 1,648 gaming machines as at the end of 2016.Located right next to NagaWorld, the company opened NagaCity Walk in August 2016, which offers duty-free shopping operated by China Duty Free Group ("CDFG"). Naga2 is undergoing fit-out and is expected to be operational in 2017. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: February 5, 2018 Naga to benefit from increased Chinese investment in Cambodia Naga 2017e results to top Bloomberg expectations (FY2017 results on February 6) NagaCorp is expected to report FY2017 results on February 6. We project gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2H17e and 2017e will show 72% and 42% YoY growth, driven by 1) robust growth within the VIP segment and 2) the opening of Naga 2. We project NagaCorp’s EBITDA and net profit to grow 50% & 72% YoY to US$155mn & US$101mn in 2H17e. Figure 1: CICCe vs. Consensus NagaCorp: CICC vs. consensus ------------2017E-------------- ------------2018E-------------- ------------2019E-------------- CICC est. Consensus Delta CICC est. Consensus Delta CICC est. Consensus Delta (US$mn) (US$mn) (%) (US$mn) (US$mn) (%) (US$mn) (US$mn) (%) Gross revenue 804 749 7 1,256 1,014 24 1,391 1,137 22 EBITDA 336 300 12 476 400 19 536 461 16 Net profits 252 219 15 323 276 17 369 315 17 EPS (US$) 0.058 0.052 12 0.074 0.061 22 0.085 0.070 21 EBITDA margin on gross revenue (%) 41.8 40.0 37.9 39.4 38.5 40.5 Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research VIP business could continue thriving in 2018 with increased Chinese investment in Cambodia In October 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Cambodia and met with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Both countries signed a number of investment agreements covering areas such as agriculture, oceanic industries, energy, telecommunication and infrastructure. Xi pledged to urge Chinese investment in building high-speed train lines and an airport in Siem Reap province, which could be a basis for further investment from China. We believe that an increase in Chinese investment in Cambodia could have fueled the growth in VIP business for Naga in 2017e (VIP GGR could grow 80% YoY in 2017e) as 1) business owners visited Phnom Penh more frequently and 2) more Chinese relocated to Cambodia.
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