Chad Monthly Food Security Update, January 2006
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ALERT LEVEL: CHAD NO ALERT WATCH Monthly Food Security Update WARNING January 2006 EMERGENCY CONTENTS SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS Summary and implications .............1 Seasonal calendar..........................1 In general, the food situation is becoming alarming, with 759,677 residents of food- Current hazard summary................1 insecure areas, including 248,390 refugees, experiencing food access problems. Refugee Food availability..............................2 camps are having problems with the pre-positioning of food supplies and are facing cuts in General conditions in refugee CSB rations, with the future supply of provisions to certain camps uncertain at best. Host areas and host communities...........4 communities in Ouaddaï, Wadi-Fira and Moyen Chari and residents of other at-risk areas Food access ...................................5 (Kanem, Tandjilé and East Logone) that are already experiencing shortages and market distortions in the wake of disruptions in trade flows can expect palpable food supply and food access problems as early as March. The numerous military actions in refugee settlement areas and the abduction by rebels of the prefect of Guereda, along with three other government officials, in broad daylight have humanitarian organizations worried. In the wake of the raising of the security level, the UNHCR and WFP have temporarily recalled 150 and 11 field workers, respectively, from area refugee camps. Continuing tension along the country‘s border with Sudan has disrupted traditional trade flows that normally stabilize conditions on grain markets, creating a food access problem for residents of Ouaddaï and Wadi Fira, who depend on neighboring Sudan for staple food products such as oil, sugar, tea, salt, millet and sorghum. An examination of conditions on the grain market shows an across-the-board hike in prices, which is somewhat of an anomaly so early in the post-harvest period, while terms of trade for sheep/grain which, up until this point, have been working to the advantage of producers/herders could turn around after the holiday period, particularly after the first of March, as the lean period looms nearer. SEASONAL CALENDAR CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY Security problems Military tension in both border areas housing the country’s refugee population is still running high. Repeated attacks by unruly armed gangs along the country’s border with the Central African Republic have led to population movements on both sides of the border. On the country’s eastern border, combatants are strengthening their positions and thefts and shake-downs by unruly armed gangs are intensifying. There are reports of incursions and abductions of government officials by rebel groups in refugee areas. As a result, the UNHCR and WFP have temporarily cut their field staffs by 161 workers in high-risk refugee camps, with the UNHCR recalling 150 field workers and the WFP pulling out another 11 workers. Disruption of grain markets in border areas Growing security concerns engendered by the presence of unruly armed gangs and routine controls in settlement areas for the country’s refugee population are interfering with travel and the movement of commodities. This has disrupted traditional flows of grain transfers and trade in already grain-short areas, triggering atypical hikes in grain prices on the CHAD: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE JANUARY 2006 Abéché market unusually early in the post-harvest period. Infestation of berbéré crops by grain-eating birds The short-lived respite from attacks of rainfed grain crops by grain-eating birds was followed by relatively severe infestations of flood recession crops in general and berbéré, or flood-irrigated sorghum crops in particular, which could undermine previous optimistic forecasts for these crops, undercutting nationwide grain production. DOMESTIC FOOD AVAILABILITY Figure 1. Difference between net per capita grain production in each prefecture and the Food situation official consumption standard of 159 kg/person/year (October 2005-September 2006) 1557 As of early 2006, the food 1600 situation is still relatively good, except in certain refugee camps 1400 and at-risk areas such as areas 1200 along the country’s border with Sudan. At 1,632,430 metric tons 1000 (MT), net grain availability 800 exceeds nationwide grain needs calculated at 1,274,388 MT. The 600 Sahelian zone is showing a net surplus of 117 kg per person per 400 167 year. Paradoxically, it is the 200 117 54 76 59 45 Sudanian zone which is showing -10 a deficit of -24 kg. Furthermore, 0 -24 -32 -24 according to our talks with -57 -38 -74 -72 government officials and heads -200 -116 of specialized departments and Lac Batha Guéra Biltine agencies, the food outlook is Kanem Tandjilé Salamat optimistic and, for now, they are Ouaddaï Mayo Kebbi Mayo ruling out any possibility of a Chari Moyen TOTAL TCHAD TOTAL S/T Rég. Sahel S/T Rég. Chari-Baguirmi famine, though they did confirm Oriental Logone S/T Rég. Soudan S/T Rég. allegations of localized food Occidental Logone security problems, particularly in food-short areas such as host areas for the refugee population in which the negative impact of ongoing conflicts, particularly along the country’s eastern border with Sudan, continues to seriously undermine the grain access of vulnerable population groups. The current upward trend in grain prices on the Abéché market, where a kilogram of pearl millet is already going for 145 CFAF though it is still early in the post-harvest period, compared with 120 CFAF/kg in December and 160 CFAF/kg in January of last year, could heighten household food insecurity, particularly in the case of poor and average households in food-short areas whose purchasing power will only get weaker as the lean period looms nearer. Accordingly, food access will need to be monitored especially closely in these parts of the country. Figure 1 compares per capita grain production for 2005/06 in each prefecture against the per capita grain requirement of 159 kg. Point zero (0) on the y-axis represents the official consumption standard of 159 kg per person, or the point at which the two figures (production and needs) meet. The other figures represent the difference between per capita production and the official standard or, in other words, the surplus or deficit. Salamat has the highest per capita grain availability, followed by Batha. Kanem, Ouaddaï, East and West Logone, Moyen Chari and Tandjilé prefectures are all showing very low per capita grain production figures for the 2005/06 growing season, with grain availability well below their respective needs. Looking at Figure 1, we see that the prefectures with net grain deficits in the country’s Sahelian zone (Kanem, Ouaddaï and Biltine) lie within different livelihood zones. 2 CHAD: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE JANUARY 2006 In the case of Ouaddaï and Biltine prefectures in the livelihood zone classified as a Ouaddai “rainfed grain-farming area,” expected grain surpluses in Batha and, more importantly, in Salamat, could help offset the overall deficit for the Sahelian zone with assurances of a Abeche regular flow of trade. However, security conditions in both areas (military conflicts, thefts Adre by highway robbers, etc.) are making grain transfers between surplus and deficit areas that much more difficult, which could partially explain the current upward trend in grain 4 prices on the Abéché market (see the price analysis). Am-Dam Goz-Beida As far as purchasing power is concerned, the main source of income for poor and, thus, more vulnerable, households in both these areas (Ouaddaï and Biltine) is employment 0 100 200 as paid labor in the fields of wealthier households or in the city. However, reductions in Kilometers the size of areas planted in grain crops mean the use of very little paid labor in the 4 Rainfed grain-farming area countryside, while the current nationwide economic depression offers few opportunities for lucrative urban employment. In the case of Kanem, long associated with a structural grain deficit and lying in the Kanem livelihood zone classified as a “transhumant pastoral area,” herding is a source of food and income. Thus, good conditions in stock-raising areas, reflected in the weights of fattened Nokou animals and, as a result, in the availability of milk and meat and in terms of trade which, 8 until now, have been working to the advantage of pastoralists, are facilitating grain Moussoro access, allowing for the purchasing of extra grain crops to meet food needs. This grain Mao access will dissipate as we get closer to the lean period, when the physical performance of animal herds (milk and meat production) weakens and grain prices 0100200 strengthen, leading to a deterioration in terms of trade for local herders. Kilometers Breaking down the overall grain shortage in the Sudanian zone, according to Figure 1, 8 Transhumant pastoral area East Logone and Moyen Chari prefectures have large grain deficits of -74 and -72 kg /person/year, respectively, followed by Tandjilé (-38 kg/person/year) and, to a lesser extent, West Logone (-32 kg/person/year). Flooding and the slow recession of floodwaters in lowland areas affected grain yields, while the announcement of a rise in the price of cotton to 190 CFAF (from 170 CFAF for the 2003/04 growing season) could be a contributing factor in the reduction in the size of areas planted in grain and the resulting expansion in cotton farming activities observed in East Logone (-42 percent) and Tandjilé (-16 percent) prefectures. Thus, there are particularly serious concerns over future grain availability in the country’s Sudanian zone in the face of the ridiculously small expected surplus in Mayo Kebbi prefecture which, by itself, cannot possibly meet the large grain requirement for this entire area for any length of time. There is an increasingly palpable threat of food insecurity problems in the Sudanian zone the closer we get to the lean period.