Monthly food security report for Chad: November 25, 2002 SUMMARY Kanem, Lac and Western Logone Prefectures are having chronic grain deficits at harvest time. The outlook for Kanem (Moussoro, Mao and Nokou) and Western Logone is even bleaker, and the risk of a famine is inescapable unless appropriate measures are taken between now and the end of the first quarter of 2003. Lac, Eastern Logone and Middle Chari are moderately food insecure, with shortfalls of 68 kg, 51 kg and 48 kg, respectively, per household member and will also require some type of intervention to get through this year's lean period. Mayo-Kebbi and Tandjilé are showing small deficits (4 to 5 kg per capita) which could be offset by non-grain production (legumes, tubers and income from cotton and groundnut crops). Most gauging stations show rainfall deficits for the 2002-03 season. Grain production is projected at 1,123,460 MT, which 15 percent less than last year's figure and 4 percent below the average annual production figure of the five-year period from 1997 to 2001. According to the grain balance sheet, per capita annual grain availability is 132 kg, which does not meet the country's grain requirement of 159 kg, according to the official consumption standard for Chad. Millet prices are falling in Eastern Logone and Middle Chari, but grain flows into Western Logone are in danger of being cut off as a result of the brewing war between Chad and the Central African Republic. The rise in millet prices on the two main markets in the country's Sahelian zone reflects an unmet demand. In planning its response to the looming food crisis in a number of prefectures around the country, the National Food Security Agency (ONASA) has recently issued a call for bids to procure 4,250 MT of grain with oil project bonus monies and national government budget funds. This is a mitigating measure and should be adequate if combined with a proper contingency plan. 1 1. Atmospheric and weather conditions According to the DREM (the Office of Water Resources and Meteorological Services), the second dekad of November was marked by strong high pressure activity over the Azores and Asia, while high pressures over Saint Helen weakened, causing the Intertropical Front (ITF) to retreat southwards to lower latitudes, hovering at around 10 and 11 degrees north latitude, between Fianga and Gozbeida, reducing visibility and blanketing areas north of the front with a dry haze. Increasingly strong high pressures and a dry haze signal the beginning of the dry season in Chad. And since dry season crops (berbéré or flood-recession sorghum crops) can thrive on residual water in the soil, they do not need rain water for their growing cycle to get off to a good start. By the third week of November, the ITF was positioned at between 8 and 10 degrees north latitude, between Kélo and Haraze Mangueigne. During the last week of the month, the front was expected to continue moving southwards, positioning itself between 8 and 9 degrees north latitude, between Pala and Sarh. In general, meteorological conditions during the fourth week of November were expected to be marked by strong high pressure activity over the Azores and Asia, with the dissipation of all rainstorm activity and a persistent dry haze blanketing most of the country. 2. Projected grain production for 2002-03 The late onset of the rains at the beginning of the crop year had worried the Chadian government as well as the donor community and nongovernmental organizations. Despite regular rainfall into mid-October, the size of the area under crops and the volume of grain production are both down from last year’s levels as a result of inadequate rainfall and an irregular pattern of precipitation. According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (DSA), current estimates put grain production at 1,123,460 MT for the current growing season still in progress in farming areas of the country. Table 1 presents a geographical breakdown of this production figure. The main grain crops grown in the country's Sahelian zone are sorghum, berbéré or flood-recession sorghum, millet and, to a lesser extent, maize. The main grain crops in the Sudanian zone are rice, sorghum and maize. The Sahelian zone accounted for 61 percent of the projected nationwide grain production figure for 2002-03. However, there are also large geographic disparities in crop production within the same zone, with Kanem, for example, accounting for a mere 1 percent of nationwide mixed grain production, compared with a 16 percent share for Chari-Baguirmi. 2 Table 1: Projected grain production for the 2002-03 growing season (output in MT) Pearl millet % Sorghum % Maize % Rice % Batha 51,250 15% 30,624 7% 0 0% 0 0% BET 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Biltine 31,723 9% 5,424 1% 0 0% 0 0% Chari Baguirmi 66,200 19% 88,953 19% 8,400 12% 846 1% Guéra 13,250 4% 34,100 7% 1,397 2% 540 1% Kanem 2,490 1% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Lac 5,053 1% 0 0% 20,143 28% 0 0% Ouaddaï 78,561 22% 57,911 12% 0 0% 3,619 4% Salamat 5,460 2% 27,000 6% 8,800 12% 1,800 2% Subtotal Sahelian zone 253,987 72% 244,012 53% 38,740 54% 6,805 8% Mayo Kebbi 8,823 3% 98,260 21% 10,000 14% 35,000 39% Tandjilé 20,750 6% 35,000 8% 7,590 11% 24,320 27% Western Logone 6,240 2% 16,320 4% 2,100 3% 5,278 6% Eastern Logone 15,250 4% 24,975 5% 5,016 7% 14,778 16% Middle Chari 45,456 13% 44,928 10% 8,712 12% 4,121 5% Subtotal Sudanian zone 96,519 28% 219,483 47% 33,418 46% 83,497 92% CHAD 350,906 100% 463,495 100% 72,158 100% 90,302 100% Share of each grain 31% 41% 6% 8% Bérbéré % Wheat % Fonio Total % Batha 5,000 4% 0 0% 0 0% 86,874 8% BET 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Biltine 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 37,147 3% Chari Baguirmi 12,000 8% 0 0% 0 0% 176,399 16% Guéra 16,750 12% 0 0% 0 0% 66,037 6% Kanem 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2,490 0% Lac 0 0% 4,000 100% 0 0% 29,196 3% Ouaddaï 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 140,091 12% Salamat 100,000 70% 0 0% 0 0% 143,060 13% Subtotal Sahelian zone 133,750 94% 4,000 100% 0 0% 681,294 61% Mayo Kebbi 8,000 6% 0 0% 0 0% 160,083 14% Tandjilé 900 1% 0 0% 0 0% 88,560 8% Western Logone 0 0% 0 0% 350 100% 30,288 3% Eastern Logone 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 60,019 5% Middle Chari 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 103,217 9% Subtotal Sudanian zone 8,900 6% 0 0% 350 100% 442,167 39% CHAD 142,650 100% 4,000 100% 350 100% 1,123,460 100% Share of each grain 13% 0% 0% 100% Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (DSA) Despite these differences and thanks to a highly developed and well organized grain market, the country's less productive prefectures should be able to rely on intra-country transfers to boost their grain availability and meet consumption needs. Grain production is much more consistent in Salamat, which is a sparsely populated prefecture seemingly protected by its relative isolation from the pressure created by grain traders. Moreover, yields from flood-recession sorghum or berbéré crops reaching maturity in the month of March go a long way towards regularizing food supplies and easing conditions during the lean period. 3 Figure 1 shows that per capita production for 2002-03 is 15 percent less than last year and 4 percent below the average for the five previous crop years. Figure 1: Per capita production for 2002-03 compared with last year and the average for the five previous years 700 Ave.1996/97-2001/02 Total 2001-02 Per capita production 2002-03 600 500 400 Kg par capita par Kg 300 200 100 0 Batha Biltine Ch. Bag Guera Kanem Lac Ouaddai Salamat M-Kebbi Tandjile W Log. E Log. Mid Chari Prefectures The 15 percent decline in production from last year’s level is attributable to the late onset of the rains and ensuing rainfall deficits. The late start of the rainy season delayed planting activities, in turn, preventing farmers from weeding areas planted in crops and, as a result, reducing the size of areas sown with grain crops by 13 percent compared with the previous growing season’s level. Fonio production is down by 64 percent, berbéré or flood-recession sorghum production by 22 percent, millet production by 17 percent, sorghum production by 12 percent and maize production by 2 percent. In contrast, rice and wheat production are up by 6 and 12 percent, respectively, in line with expansions of 19 and 7 percent in area under cultivation of the respective crops. Bilateral cooperation programs between Chad and Taiwan included the framing of a three year land development plan designed to expand the area planted in rice in the Bongor border-irrigated rice growing area. The plan called for the addition of 700 hectares of rice fields in 2002, 700 hectares in 2003 and another 600 hectares in 2004. As contemplated in the development plan, Taiwan expanded the area planted in rice by 700 hectares in time for this growing season.