Monthly food security report for : November 25, 2002

SUMMARY , and Western Logone Prefectures are having chronic grain deficits at harvest time. The outlook for Kanem (Moussoro, Mao and Nokou) and Western Logone is even bleaker, and the risk of a famine is inescapable unless appropriate measures are taken between now and the end of the first quarter of 2003. Lac, Eastern Logone and Middle Chari are moderately food insecure, with shortfalls of 68 kg, 51 kg and 48 kg, respectively, per household member and will also require some type of intervention to get through this year's lean period. Mayo-Kebbi and Tandjilé are showing small deficits (4 to 5 kg per capita) which could be offset by non-grain production (legumes, tubers and income from cotton and groundnut crops).

Most gauging stations show rainfall deficits for the 2002-03 season. Grain production is projected at 1,123,460 MT, which 15 percent less than last year's figure and 4 percent below the average annual production figure of the five-year period from 1997 to 2001.

According to the grain balance sheet, per capita annual grain availability is 132 kg, which does not meet the country's grain requirement of 159 kg, according to the official consumption standard for Chad.

Millet prices are falling in Eastern Logone and Middle Chari, but grain flows into Western Logone are in danger of being cut off as a result of the brewing war between Chad and the Central African Republic. The rise in millet prices on the two main markets in the country's Sahelian zone reflects an unmet demand.

In planning its response to the looming food crisis in a number of prefectures around the country, the National Food Security Agency (ONASA) has recently issued a call for bids to procure 4,250 MT of grain with oil project bonus monies and national government budget funds. This is a mitigating measure and should be adequate if combined with a proper contingency plan.

1 1. Atmospheric and weather conditions

According to the DREM (the Office of Water Resources and Meteorological Services), the second dekad of November was marked by strong high pressure activity over the Azores and Asia, while high pressures over Saint Helen weakened, causing the Intertropical Front (ITF) to retreat southwards to lower latitudes, hovering at around 10 and 11 degrees north latitude, between Fianga and Gozbeida, reducing visibility and blanketing areas north of the front with a dry haze. Increasingly strong high pressures and a dry haze signal the beginning of the dry season in Chad. And since dry season crops (berbéré or flood-recession sorghum crops) can thrive on residual water in the soil, they do not need rain water for their growing cycle to get off to a good start.

By the third week of November, the ITF was positioned at between 8 and 10 degrees north latitude, between Kélo and Haraze Mangueigne.

During the last week of the month, the front was expected to continue moving southwards, positioning itself between 8 and 9 degrees north latitude, between Pala and Sarh. In general, meteorological conditions during the fourth week of November were expected to be marked by strong high pressure activity over the Azores and Asia, with the dissipation of all rainstorm activity and a persistent dry haze blanketing most of the country.

2. Projected grain production for 2002-03

The late onset of the rains at the beginning of the crop year had worried the Chadian government as well as the donor community and nongovernmental organizations. Despite regular rainfall into mid-October, the size of the area under crops and the volume of grain production are both down from last year’s levels as a result of inadequate rainfall and an irregular pattern of precipitation.

According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (DSA), current estimates put grain production at 1,123,460 MT for the current growing season still in progress in farming areas of the country. Table 1 presents a geographical breakdown of this production figure.

The main grain crops grown in the country's Sahelian zone are sorghum, berbéré or flood-recession sorghum, millet and, to a lesser extent, maize. The main grain crops in the Sudanian zone are rice, sorghum and maize. The Sahelian zone accounted for 61 percent of the projected nationwide grain production figure for 2002-03. However, there are also large geographic disparities in crop production within the same zone, with Kanem, for example, accounting for a mere 1 percent of nationwide mixed grain production, compared with a 16 percent share for Chari-Baguirmi.

2 Table 1: Projected grain production for the 2002-03 growing season (output in MT) Pearl millet % Sorghum % Maize % Rice % 51,250 15% 30,624 7% 0 0% 0 0% BET 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 31,723 9% 5,424 1% 0 0% 0 0% Chari Baguirmi 66,200 19% 88,953 19% 8,400 12% 846 1% Guéra 13,250 4% 34,100 7% 1,397 2% 540 1% Kanem 2,490 1% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Lac 5,053 1% 0 0% 20,143 28% 0 0% Ouaddaï 78,561 22% 57,911 12% 0 0% 3,619 4% 5,460 2% 27,000 6% 8,800 12% 1,800 2% Subtotal Sahelian zone 253,987 72% 244,012 53% 38,740 54% 6,805 8% Mayo Kebbi 8,823 3% 98,260 21% 10,000 14% 35,000 39% Tandjilé 20,750 6% 35,000 8% 7,590 11% 24,320 27% Western Logone 6,240 2% 16,320 4% 2,100 3% 5,278 6% Eastern Logone 15,250 4% 24,975 5% 5,016 7% 14,778 16% Middle Chari 45,456 13% 44,928 10% 8,712 12% 4,121 5% Subtotal Sudanian zone 96,519 28% 219,483 47% 33,418 46% 83,497 92% CHAD 350,906 100% 463,495 100% 72,158 100% 90,302 100% Share of each grain 31% 41% 6% 8%

Bérbéré % Wheat % Fonio Total % Batha 5,000 4% 0 0% 0 0% 86,874 8% BET 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Biltine 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 37,147 3% Chari Baguirmi 12,000 8% 0 0% 0 0% 176,399 16% Guéra 16,750 12% 0 0% 0 0% 66,037 6% Kanem 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2,490 0% Lac 0 0% 4,000 100% 0 0% 29,196 3% Ouaddaï 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 140,091 12% Salamat 100,000 70% 0 0% 0 0% 143,060 13% Subtotal Sahelian zone 133,750 94% 4,000 100% 0 0% 681,294 61% Mayo Kebbi 8,000 6% 0 0% 0 0% 160,083 14% Tandjilé 900 1% 0 0% 0 0% 88,560 8% Western Logone 0 0% 0 0% 350 100% 30,288 3% Eastern Logone 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 60,019 5% Middle Chari 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 103,217 9% Subtotal Sudanian zone 8,900 6% 0 0% 350 100% 442,167 39% CHAD 142,650 100% 4,000 100% 350 100% 1,123,460 100% Share of each grain 13% 0% 0% 100% Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (DSA)

Despite these differences and thanks to a highly developed and well organized grain market, the country's less productive prefectures should be able to rely on intra-country transfers to boost their grain availability and meet consumption needs. Grain production is much more consistent in Salamat, which is a sparsely populated prefecture seemingly protected by its relative isolation from the pressure created by grain traders. Moreover, yields from flood-recession sorghum or berbéré crops reaching maturity in the month of March go a long way towards regularizing food supplies and easing conditions during the lean period.

3 Figure 1 shows that per capita production for 2002-03 is 15 percent less than last year and 4 percent below the average for the five previous crop years.

Figure 1: Per capita production for 2002-03 compared with last year and the average for the five previous years

700 Ave.1996/97-2001/02 Total 2001-02 Per capita production 2002-03 600

500

400

Kg par capita par Kg 300

200

100

0 Batha Biltine Ch. Bag Guera Kanem Lac Ouaddai Salamat M-Kebbi Tandjile W Log. E Log. Mid Chari Prefectures

The 15 percent decline in production from last year’s level is attributable to the late onset of the rains and ensuing rainfall deficits. The late start of the rainy season delayed planting activities, in turn, preventing farmers from weeding areas planted in crops and, as a result, reducing the size of areas sown with grain crops by 13 percent compared with the previous growing season’s level. Fonio production is down by 64 percent, berbéré or flood-recession sorghum production by 22 percent, millet production by 17 percent, sorghum production by 12 percent and maize production by 2 percent. In contrast, rice and wheat production are up by 6 and 12 percent, respectively, in line with expansions of 19 and 7 percent in area under cultivation of the respective crops.

Bilateral cooperation programs between Chad and Taiwan included the framing of a three year land development plan designed to expand the area planted in rice in the Bongor border-irrigated rice growing area. The plan called for the addition of 700 hectares of rice fields in 2002, 700 hectares in 2003 and another 600 hectares in 2004. As contemplated in the development plan, Taiwan expanded the area planted in rice by 700 hectares in time for this growing season. The expansion in the size of the area under wheat is a result of the receding of floodwaters from large tracts of land, leaving an extensive flood-irrigated area for the farming of wheat crops in traditional polders.

4 3. Current food situation and outlook for food shortage areas

In general, the food situation in the Sahelian zone is still satisfactory, except in Kanem prefecture, which faces chronic food problems. There, the possibility of a famine in the wake of this year's poor growing season and the rather alarming condition of grazing lands cannot be ruled out. In the Sudanian zone, Western Logone (an area with a structural deficit) has a chronic food security problem and local residents are facing difficulties in the wake of this year's poor growing season. Elsewhere, conditions are better than at this time last year, when flooding caused serious problems for the local population. According to the DPA (the Bureau of Crop Production), the situation in Department requires immediate attention, as local residents are dealing with a food crisis by living off wild plant foods. FEWS Net is currently attempting to confirm this new situation and should have the information it needs in the next few days.

Figure 2 compares per capita grain production for 2002-03, by prefecture, against the 159 kg consumption requirement. The zero (0) on the Y-axis denotes the official per capita consumption standard of 159 kg and indicates a zero variance between production and the 159 kg standard. The other figures along the Y-axis represent the difference between per capita production and the official consumption standard, with the positive figures reflecting a surplus and the negative figures denoting a deficit.

Per capita food availability is highest in Salamat, followed by Batha. Prefectures in the western part of the country (Kanem and Lac) and in the far south (Western and Eastern Logone) produce comparatively small volumes of grain per capita and grain availability in these areas is well below consumption needs. Kanem and Lac prefectures are in a Sahelo-Saharan zone, where millet crops grown in interdune areas are highly susceptible to climatic risks.

According to Figure 2, Kanem has a chronic food deficit. Its food economy is heavily dependent on pastoralism and remittances from family members who have left the area for income earning opportunities in Nigeria, Cameroon and N’Djamena. According to the DSA, these émigrés are typically merchants who send cash remittances back home to Kanem as part of their family's survival strategy. Most vendors of second-hand goods, radio sets and cola drinks in N’Djamena are from Kanem.

5 Figure 2: Trends in per capita production, by prefecture, compared with the official consumption standard of 159 kg per person per year (1997/98 - 2002/03) 500

450 2002-03 400 350 Average 300 250 200 150

100 50

Production per capita (kg) capita per Production 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Batha Biltine Ch. Bag Guera Kanem Lac Ouaddai Salamat M-Kebbi Tandjile W. Log. E. Log. Mid Chari Prefectures Source: DSA (Bureau of Agricultural Statistics)

Even with this help, Kanem (Moussoro, Mao and Nokou) could be facing a full-fledged famine unless appropriate measures are taken between now and the end of the first quarter of 2003. Both Kanem and Western Logone are, indeed, at risk of facing an actual famine. The findings in this report are based on: 1) observations by the members of four field missions; 2) production statistics; and 3) the report was the subject of a discussion paper and presentation, eliciting feedback from the director of the Bureau of Crop Production (DPA), the Director General of the Ministry of Agriculture, the director of the National Food Security Agency (ONASA), Mr. Ali Ibrahim Salah with the National Rural Development Agency (ONDR), the Director General of SODELAC, Mr. Abdallah Adam, also with SODELAC, and the Multidisciplinary Technical Group (GTP). Pastoralists began moving south in search of pasture land and watering holes at the end of August. Thus, there is less availability of milk and meat (as noted by the members of a DPA field mission to Kanem and, more specifically, by the French adviser, Mr. Marc). There are no figures available as yet, which provides all the more reason to conduct a baseline survey in Kanem. Milk production and livestock prices are key indicators of the state of the food economy in Kanem and, as such, should be closely monitored. This year, according to the DPA, grasses reaching as high as 50-70 cm in past years are yellowing and currently measure only 20 to 30 cm in length.

Local residents could run out of grain by mid-February of next year. The government of Chad could use its own security stock consisting of 20,000 MT of grain (including the imminent 4,250 MT procurement) for distributions of free food aid or subsidized grain sales. The ONDR explains the grain deficit in Western Logone as a product of inadequate rainfall and resulting pockets of drought. The concentration, irregularity and

6 uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space threw off planting schedules. In general, the area has not gotten enough rain, with rainfall totals at most gauging stations way down from last year (we are still waiting for the latest bulletin from the DREM (the Office of Water Resources and Meteorological Services), which is scheduled to come out this week). The late start of this year's rainy season, in turn, impacted on the progress of the growing season, throwing off the crop calendar, causing crops to wither, creating pockets of drought which, in turn, were responsible for sightings of crop predators in a number of fields, and reducing the size of the area planted in grain crops. The per capita shortfall in Western Logone is also attributable to the area's high population density and the slump in the price of cotton, discouraging local farmers from planting cotton crops. A number of farmers abandoned their fields to work as day laborers on the oil project.

Lac, Eastern Logone and Middle Chari are moderately food-insecure, with food deficits of 68 kg, 51 kg and 48 kg, respectively, per household member. Mayo-Kebbi and Tandjilé are reporting deficits of 5 and 4 kg, which could be offset by non-grain production (legumes, tubers and income from cotton and groundnut crops). Residents of Eastern Logone and Middle Chari will require some form of assistance to make it through this year's lean period.

Since cotton is the backbone of the food economy in the country's Sudanian zone, delays in payments for this year's cotton crops could create a lasting food security problem before the beginning of the lean period. According to the DPA, many farmers in Western Logone are beginning to expand the size of their rice fields, cutting down on the acreage planted in cotton. And since the Sudanian zone produces 46 percent of all maize, compared with other grain crops (Table 1), farmers could rotate maize and cotton crops, with the resulting maize used in manufacturing feedcakes and in expanding livestock raising activities. The value added associated with meat production could be used as a building block in the formulation of a strategy for freeing the food economy from its dependence on cotton.

The DPA has identified a number of at-risk areas. In the Sahelian zone, the departments presenting a high risk of food insecurity problems are Kanem, Bahr El Ghazal, Hadjer Lamis, West Batha, and, to a lesser extent, Salamat, Guéra, Biltine, East Batha, Ouaddaï and Sila, with potential pockets of short-term food security problems. In the Sudanian zone, all rice-growing areas throughout Mayo Boneye, East Tandjilé and the northern reaches of Eastern Logone are at risk of experiencing famine conditions. Departments requiring close monitoring include Kabia, Mayo Dala, the rice- growing area of Western Logone, Lac Iro and the southern part of Eastern Logone.

Certain departments classified as at-risk areas by the DPA are not regarded as such by FEWS Net based on its own analyses. In its opinion, at least for the time being, Batha, Salamat, Guera and Ouaddaï Departments, for example, do not appear to be affected by food insecurity problems.

7 4. Projected grain balance sheet for 2002-03

Gross production is estimated at 1,123,460 MT, compared with an estimated aggregate human consumption figure of 1,262,444 MT based on the official consumption standard for Chad. Apparent grain availability is 1,047,995 MT, or 132 kg per capita, with an estimated net deficit of 241,919 MT. The results of the 2002-03 crop year, for which the country is showing an aggregate grain deficit of 241,919 MT according to its projected grain balance sheet (Table 2), underscore the continuing importance of grain transfers and of subsidized grain sales and/or handouts of free food aid by the ONASA (the National Food Security Agency).

Table 2: Projected grain balance sheet for 2002-03 (Unit: MT) ITEMS RICE WHEAT MILLET/SORGHUM TOTAL MAIZE/OTHER Population as of 04/30/2003 7 939 900 I - AVAILABILITY 51 666 5 440 892 825 949 931 Gross production 90 302 4 000 1 029 159 1 123 461 Available production 49 666 3 400 874 785 927 851 Opening stocks 2 000 2 040 18 040 22 080 . On-farm 0 0 0 0 . Other 2 000 2 040 18 040 22 080 II – NEEDS 1 289 944,1 Consumption standard 11,2 9,2 138,6 159 (kg/person/year) 88 926,9 73 047,1 1 100 470,1 1 262 444,1 Total human consumption 2 500 2 000 23 000 27 500 Closing stocks 0 0 5 000 5 000 . On-farm 2 500 2 000 18 000 22 500 . Other III – SURPLUS(+) / DEFICIT(-) -39 760,9 -69 607,1 -230 645,1 -340 013,1 IV – NET IMPORTS/EXPORTS 24 300 65 000 8 764 98 064 . Projected grain imports 24 000 65 000 2 000 91 000 . Anticipated aid 300 - 6 764 7 064 . Projected exports - - - - V – NET SURPLUS(+)/DEFICIT(-) -15 450,9 -4 607,1 -221 881,1 -241 919,1 APPARENT AVAILABILITY 75 966,0 70 440,0 901 589,0 1 047 995,0 APPARENT PER CAPITA 9,6 8,9 113,6 132,1 AVAILABILITY (kg) Source: DSA (Bureau of Agricultural Statistics)

5. Examination of Food Prices and Availability

5.1. Pearl millet prices

There has been a steady deterioration in market conditions in N’Djaména and Abéché since the beginning of the year. Even so, millet prices are still unusually high. By mid- November, average millet prices were already up from the previous month on both markets in the country's Sahelian zone (Figure 3). Prices did not come down with this year's harvest as they normally do. November prices for millet on the Abéché market were up 15 percent from the previous month, 25 percent from the same time last year

8 and 30 percent from the average price of millet five years ago. This price escalation is a result of heavy demand from the B.E.T. prefecture. The war between the government and MDJT rebels of the MDJT (Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad) has cut off grain (rice) flows between Chad and Libya. The hike in millet prices on the Abéché market could have a damaging effect on the budgets of urban households and farm families forced to purchase millet supplies. Without baseline data on sources of household income in the country's different food economy zones, it is hard to follow how an aberrant hike in millet prices in Abéché affects food access at the household level and to understand the implications of this price swing for household income.

Figure 3: Millet prices in N'Djaména, Abéché, Moundou and Sarh, November 2002 - November 2002 260 Abéché Moundou Sarh N'Djaména 240

220

200

180 CFA/kg

160

140

120

100 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 Mar 02 Apr 02 May 02 Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02 Nov 02 FEWS NET/Chad Source: SIM

The price of millet on markets in N’Djaména rose 7 percent from October and was up considerably from the same time last year, reaching 235 CFA francs/kg in November of this year, compared with 200 CFA francs/kg in November 2001. It was also up from the average price of millet five years ago (163 CFA francs/kg).

In general, the escalation in millet prices is a result of season-wide rainfall deficits in Ouaddaï and Chari-Baguirmi and, more specifically, a product of poor harvests in certain parts of the country's Sahelian zone and the added cost of shipping grain from high-production areas to areas plagued by production shortfalls.

Of the four markets tracked by FEWS NET, the Abéché market in Ouaddaï prefecture had the lowest prices for millet (150 CFA francs/kg). The N’Djamena market in Chari Baguirmi showed the highest prices (235 CFA francs/kg). The hike in November prices on both these market is attributable to the bleak prospects for maize crops in the wake of the poor rainy season in the Lac and Kanem regions and a harvest forecast for

9 rainfed and off-season maize crops which puts production at 87,820 MT, which is below the average production figure for the last three years.

5.2. Terms of trade for millet/sheep on the N’Djaména market

The average price of a sheep on the N’Djaména market jumped 3 percent between October and November, from 17,500 CFA francs, up to 18,000 CFA francs. This small boost in sheep prices is due in large part to the earlier-than-usual departure of pastoralists for grazing lands in the south. It is also partly attributable to preparations for the month-long celebration of Ramadan. The average cost of a sheep is down 7.7 percent from the same time last year (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Terms of trade for sheep/millet on the N'Djaména market, November 2001 to November 2002 30000 180

160 25000 140

20000 120

100 15000 80

CFA Francs 10000 60

40 sheep per millet of Kg 5000 20

0 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 02 Aug Sep Oct Nov 01 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 Prcie of sheep Price of millet (100 kg) Source: FEWS Net Tchad Kg of millet per sheep

A sheep is still selling for the equivalent of about 80 kg of millet (18,000 CFAF/225 CFAF per kg of millet), showing no change from the month of October when it was also at 80 kg. There was no change in the purchasing power of pastoralists and their families, despite the 2 percent dip in millet prices. (THE ONLY AVAILABLE DATA ON SHEEP PRICES IS FOR MARKETS IN THE NATION'S CAPITAL CITY OF N’DJAMENA.)

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