CHAD Food Security Outlook Update February 2015 Atypical sharp rise in maize prices in the Lake Chad Region affecting poor households KEY MESSAGES Most likely estimated food security outcomes for February – March 2015 Harvests of off-season crops (flood-recession sorghum and market garden crops) are just getting underway in Sila, Guera, Batha, Mayo Kebbi, Chari Baguirmi, and Moyen Chari. These crops are bolstering the food stocks of very poor and poor households in areas with below-average rainfed crop production for 2014. Market supply is at average levels, but cereal prices in Sarh, Moundou, and Kélo are approximately 30 percent above average. In the Sahelian zone, price are also above average in N’Djamena, Abéché, and Bol, with the steepest increase is in the price of maize in Bol (81 percent). Livestock exports have been particularly limited by ongoing insecurity in Nigeria. In Kanem, Bahr el-Ghazel, Guera, and Sila, poor and very poor households’ cereal food stocks are low, limiting their food consumption. As a result, these households will face Source: FEWS NET Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes in Most likely estimated food security outcomes for February and March. Without assistance, poor households April – June 2015 in Lake Chad region would likely be at least one phase worse. The atypical rise in staple food prices triggered by the large presence of refugees and returnees from Nigeria will make poor households in the Lake Chad area incapable of protecting their livelihoods and barely enable them to meet their food needs, creating Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security conditions for this group of households. CURRENT SITUATION Crop-farming conditions: The main farming activities at this time are harvests of berbéré (flood-recession sorghum) and market garden crops. The berbéré harvest is already underway in Guera and scheduled to begin by early March in Salamat. Based on the good crop development during the past season, production should be Source: FEWS NET These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes average to slightly above-average in Salamat and Batha. However, in for emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily Melfi Department in Guera, high night-time temperatures and reflect chronic food insecurity. currently below-average vegetation growth results in well below- average production (near 50 percent). Harvests have been underway since the second week of February in Mayo Kebbi, where crop yields should be average. Pastoral conditions: Pasture levels in the Sudanian zone are lower than at the same time last year due to an overabundance of animals. Livestock are grazing on pasture, supplemented by supplies of crop residue, new grass growth following earlier FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or the United www.fews.net/chad States Government. CHAD Food Security Outlook Update February 2015 than usual brush fires, and vegetation on the banks of waterways. Pastoralists from the Central African Republic are putting pressure on the meager supply of available pastures and watering holes, which have been further reduced by the influx of transhumant herds from the Sahelian zone. In general, pasture in the Sahelian zone is currently in adequate condition. Cereal markets and prices: Cereal markets are adequately stocked with supplies of millet, sorghum, and maize, but there is limited availability of locally grown rice with this year’s below-average rice production in Mont-Illi and Kabbia Departments. Cereal supplies are below average on western markets (in Hadjer Lamis, Kanem, Lac, and BEG) due to below-average production and long-distance trade flows extending into Salamat, Kerfi, and the South (Benoye). The situation is even more serious in the Lake Chad region along the border with Nigeria, where prices are up sharply. Maize prices on the Bol market are 81 percent above the five-year average and 50 percent higher than in February 2014. Cereal prices are also on the rise in the Sudanian zone, particularly in Sarh, where sorghum prices are up by 33 percent and millet prices by 15 percent. Sorghum prices in Moundou and Kélo are above the five-year average by 26 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Livestock markets and prices: Trading in livestock between Chad and neighboring countries has declined significantly and become dangerous with the incursions by Boko Haram into border areas of the subregion (Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad). Supplies of livestock, particularly cattle, are high across the country as a whole. Population movements: With the attacks by Boko Haram, the Lake Chad Region has been reporting large-scale population movements (15,000 people) into the area from Nigeria since the beginning of the year to escape the insecurity in that country. However, there are also reports of the displacement of many Chadian households from islands along the Nigerian border to neighboring areas. Current food security situation: In general, harvests of berbéré and market garden crops and wage income from paid labor are creating generally good food security conditions. Certain poor households in flood-recession farming areas (Salamat, Guera, and East and West Mayo-Kebbi) have started to rebuild their food stocks and are also able to meet their food needs resulting in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Returnees from the Central African Republic in the Sudanian zone will be able to meet their food and nonfood needs with the help of food assistance and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity. Food consumption by households in the Kanem, BEG, and southern Guera areas of the Sahelian zone has been reduced by the premature depletion of their food stocks and the deterioration in terms of trade for livestock/cereals with the sharp decline in livestock prices, translating into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. Poor households in the Lake Chad area have below-average food consumption and are barely meeting their basic food thanks to assistance, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity outcomes. UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS The current situation has not affected the assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely scenario for the period from January through June 2015. A full discussion of the scenario can be found in the Food Security Outlook for January through June 2015. PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 2015 As usual, food stocks in the Kanem, Barh-El-Gazal, and Guera regions will be depleted by April. Poor households in these areas will engage in less essential nonfood spending than usual and, thus, will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) between April and June. ABOUT THIS REPORT The food security update is a monthly report on current conditions and changes in the projected food security outlook for this country. It updates FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook. Learn more here. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 .