Monthly Food Security Update for : March 22, 2002

A joint report by FEWS NET and the National Nutritional Center for Nutrition and Food Technology (CNNTA)

Summary

In the context of food security monitoring, FEWS NET and the National Center for Nutrition and Food Technology (CNNTA) organized a small-scale anthropometric survey from February 27 through March 12 in the eastern Sahelian zone, visiting Rural , Arada, Kalait, Iriba, Guereda, Tiné and Bahai sub-prefectures. Preliminary results indicated that the rate of global acute malnutrition, calculated as a percent of the median, was less than 5 percent in about half of the survey villages (results from other villages are still expected). On the basis of these results, the overall food situation is considered good in the survey areas.

Cereal availability and accessibility are good in most departments of the country. However, accessibility remains difficult for households in , and Tibesti Departments (known as BET) in the far northern part of the country that do not produce cereals. These departments get their food supplies from neighboring Biltine and Ouaddai Departments. Nonetheless, transportation to and from the BET is difficult due to the rugged condition of desert roads.

Current off-season farming activities include tending market gardens and harvesting produce, and harvesting berbéré (off-season, flood-irrigated sorghum) in the berbéré producing zones of Mayo Boneye, Mayo Dalla, and Departments where the crop harvests are reasonably good.

Irrigated wheat in the modern sector polders of Lake Chad is nearing maturity while some wheat is already being harvested in the traditional polders.

Cereal prices in Abéché were more stable throughout March than February, but prices rose in Sarh, Moundou and N’djamena. Due to their limited resources, low-income households and civil servants are having difficulties buying high-cost cereals.

1. Food Availability

1.1. Update on Off-Season Agriculture

Most off-season agricultural activities at this time include tending and harvesting vegetable garden crops and harvesting berbéré (flood-irrigated sorghum) in the production zones of Mayo Boneye, Mayo Dalla, Dar Silla and Salamat Departments.

The berbéré harvest that got underway last month in Salamat Department is still going on; according to all information sources, crops are good. Grain-eating birds, considered by farmers in the department as dangerous pests, appeared late. These birds have caused only localized damage and will have a negligible impact on yields.

Irrigated wheat in the modern sector polders on Lake Chad is nearing maturity while irrigated wheat in the traditional polders is ready for harvest or being harvested.

1.2. Nutritional Monitoring in the Eastern Sahelian Zone

1.2.1. Results of a Nutrition Survey

The joint FEWS NET/CNNTA mission has identified several factors that cause malnutrition in children of less than 5 years old in the eastern Sahelian zone. These factors include: a) poor breast-feeding; b) abrupt weaning; c) taboos on certain foods; d) limited education levels of mothers; e) the lack of elementary training for public health agents; f) inadequate anthropometrical equipment that prevent health facilities from monitoring children under 5 and detecting malnutrition.

The survey used two-stage cluster sampling of children from 6-59 months old. The sample size was 110 children. The weight/height ratio, expressed as a percent of the median, was used to determine the rate of acute malnutrition; the presence of edema was also considered.

The brachial tube circumference was also calculated. The rate of global acute malnutrition calculated as percentage of the median was about 5% in almost half of the villages surveyed (the result of other villages are still expected); this relatively low rate appears to corroborate the recent good harvest and cereal availability for children in farmer as well as agropastoral households in those localities.

More detail information on this survey will be provided in the next FEWS NET Monthly Update.

1.2.2. Food Security Conditions

Generally speaking, food security situation in the visited zones is good. According to the National Office for Rural Development (ONDR), produced a cereal surplus of 2,592 metric tons (MT). However, Biltine and Iriba Rural show production deficits (Table 1).

Figure 1 shows that cereals are available in sufficient quantity in the ONDR subsector. However, market prices seem to be high compared to the purchasing power of low-income people. Table 1: Biltine Sub-Sector Cereals Balance, 2001/02

Sub- Population in Food needs in Cereal production Difference (in prefecture 2001 Cereals (in MT) in tons 2001/02 MT) Biltine 63,200 9,840 7,850 -1,630 Am-Zoer 34,540 5,181 6,480 +1,299 Guereda 70,215 10,532 18,725 +8,193 Arada 2,830 ,425 1,124 +699 Iriba Rural 42,858 6,429 460 -5,969 Total 213,643 32,047 34,639 +2,595 Source: ONDR/Biltine sub-sector

The 5,969-MT deficit in Iriba Rural sub-prefecture is the highest, but given the composition of the population (mostly herders and some farmer-herders), good pastures and crop production in the neighboring sub-prefecture of Guereda, the deficit will be more or less covered by normal cereal flows.

Guereda sub-prefecture, which is considered as structurally in deficit and has a pastoralist- dominated population, has an excess of 699 MT. According to the local ONDR office, the 2001/02 agricultural season was the best in 2 or 3 years. This good season was due to good rainfall (over 200 mm) and only minor localized damage caused by millet stalk borers.

According to the Guereda ONDR sub-sector, the agricultural season was good and the population will be able to manage the hungry season easily. In addition to rainfed agriculture, a number of households have taken up market gardening. Others travel to neighboring Sudan to find temporary jobs. As the joint mission was going through Guereda, farmers continued to thresh their finger millet, another indication of a good agricultural season.

In Am-Zoer, production was good, but the market demand for cereals by Biltine, Tiné (a village bordering Sudan) and Bahaï in Ennedi Department is likely to reduce supplies and affect the food security of the resident population during the hungry season. In spite of the Ministry of Interior’s decision to ban cereal exports, wholesalers and transporters routinely supply cereals to Tiné before transferring them to Sudan. This flow is sometimes halted, according to the administrative authorities in Tiné. The majority of the population has no other source of income but agriculture and has to sell part of the crop in order to satisfy its needs.

1.3. Pasture Conditions and Bush Fires

The good rainfall of the 2001/02 season regenerated forage crops (especially grasses) in most of the country. However, sufficient water for animals is a problem in the Sahelian zone. This explains the involuntary migration of animals to areas of high cattle concentration. The FEWS NET/CNNTA joint mission was able to observe the gathering of groups of large and small ruminants around some livestock wells in some localities.

In addition to water scarcity, there is the problem of bush fires, especially during the dry season. Those fires destroy large grasslands that constitute reserves of pasture for animals in hard times as well as goods belonging to farm households (houses, cattle and crops).

The joint mission also witnessed a gigantic fire in Guéra Department (Mongo) on the night of March 11-12 around the Baro mountain administrative post 25 kilometers from Mongo. This fire caused the destruction of dried grass on several hectares of land, depriving cattle of food and forcing them to move elsewhere to find their means of sustenance. This on-the-spot observation has been confirmed by satellite images by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) and by the Terra Satellite. The dots on Map 1 represent bush fires in Chad on March 11.

Map 1: Satellite Image of Bush Fires in Chad: March 11, 2002

Source: Terra satellite/NASA: Bush fires in Chad on 03/11/02

In addition to the bush fire observed near Mongo, Figure 1 shows fires to the north-west of Melfi in Guéra Department, in western Bousso in and especially in the central and eastern part of the Sudanian zone (Barh Koh Department, southern Logon Oriental, near Kyabé in Iro Department and Salamat Department).

Bush fires are mainly observed along the border with the , where many Chadian herders are found in the dry season looking for pasture and water.

The most frequent causes of this phenomenon, according to eye-witnesses, are: • Camp fires (near herders’ camps) that are not well extinguished by herders, hunters or other transhumants; • Fires meant to clear the land for agricultural purposes; • Arson (due to revenge or conflict between herders and farmers); • Fires due to negligence in the use of matches and cigarettes; • Fires used as means of hunting. In general, most bush fires are the result of human carelessness and maliciousness. The immediate consequences of bush fires are a slow but gradual destruction of the ecosystem.

In order to fight against bush fires the best approach would be to sensitize public opinion to the damage caused by this scourge. Another approach would consist of establishing anti-bush fire committees in most of vulnerable departments, providing them with light fire-fighting equipment, as well as providing the water and forest fire brigades with adequate equipment such as radios and water tankers to extinguish fires. Both approaches complement each other and are necessary at the same time.

1.4. Livestock Conditions

Livestock conditions were generally good in the zones visited by the joint FEWS NET/CNNTA mission. The number of veterinary posts in those zones and limited technical means do not allow the supervision of the cattle in this vast area. For example, in Assongha Department on the border with Sudan and part of the cattle quarantine line, no vaccinations have taken place since the bovine plague vaccine campaign in March 2001 in Kado and a part of Guergué sub- prefectures. Animals in Assongha remain exposed to common illnesses.

Elsewhere, no major cattle health problems have been observed during the dry season as they encounter the usual hardships of seasonal transhumance.

2. Food Accessibility

2.1. Market Prices

Cereal prices on the markets monitored by FEWS NET were stable between February and March, with the exception of finger millet whose price rose. For instance, the price of remained unchanged on the Abeché market (120 CFA/kg). In contrast, the price of millet rose slightly in N’djamena, Moundou (3%) and Sarh (4%) (Figure 1).

In Moundou millet prices increased 3.5% between January and February and 3% between February and March. This increase, as pointed out in previous reports, is explained by the decrease in the unemployment rate, improvement of purchasing power of the Moundou population and demand from migrants looking for work with the oil project. Moundou is also among the departments affected by the November flood, leading to lower supplies. Cereal production for the 2001/02 season (430,000 MT) was 16% below normal (509,000 MT); these price increases are also in part caused by speculation by cereal wholesalers.

Compared to last year at the same period, prices are 2% - 38% lower on the four main markets, but compared to the average of the first quarter of the last six years, they increased 9% - 30% in three of the four markets; prices in Abéché decreased slightly by 2%. This decrease was due to the good harvest and the ability of the wholesalers to adjust cereal flows according to market signals. Cereals are generally accessible. Good crops coupled with good pasture have strengthened the purchasing power of the rural population buying and selling cereals. But in the visited zones, such as Biltine, Iriba, Arada, and Kalaït, delays in salary payments might make it increasingly harder for civil servants to afford to buy cereals.

Figure 1: Average Millet Prices on Chad's Four Largest Markets, January 2001 to March 2002 400

300

200 FCFA/KG

100

0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 02 Feb Mar 01 Abeche 280 310 320 314 340 260 279 192 120 120 140 120 120 Moundou 210 220 180 194 365 210 210 190 220 128 140 145 150 Sarh 170 220 190 190 210 197 200 192 230 120 145 140 145 N'Djaména 260 260 260 247 260 240 233 180 200 150 150 155 160 FEWS NET Chad Source: SIM The highest prices of millet were observed in Faya in Borkou Department (200 CFA/kg) and in northern Department (240 CFA/kg). The lowest market price was observed in Goz- Beida, Kerfi and Tissi in (90 CFA/kg). Berbéré sold for 90 CFA/kg in Am-timan in Salamat Department. As this price is within reach of the rural and urban population, its continued stability or even slight increase would insure food accessibility until the hungry season (soudure).

2.2. Terms of Trade

The average price of millet (100 kg bag) on the N’djamena market increased by 3% between February and March but remains 63% lower than the price in March 2001. On the other hand, the average price of a sheep dramatically dropped from prices in the last three months (see Figure 2). In spite of the price decreases, of 5% between January and March and 25% between February and March, March prices remained higher than the 2001 hungry season price when many pastoralists and farmers had to sell their cattle in order to purchase millet. The 25% decrease in sheep price between February and March is due to the end of Tabaski (Idd al-Adha). This decrease in sheep prices is also due to the government’s measures preventing cattle exports. The dumping of Sudanese sheep on the local market is another factor. Despite these decreases, prices have not fallen to their lowest level because of the return of pilgrims from the haj in Mecca. According to custom, the return of each pilgrim should be celebrated by the purchase and slaughter of at least one sheep.

Figure 2: Terms of Trade Sheep/Millet for N’djamena. July 2001 to March 2002

35,000 200 Price per Sheep 30,000 Price per 100 kg of Millet 175 kg of Millet per Sheep 150 25,000 125 20,000 100

15,000 Sheep

Francs CFA 75 10,000

50 per Millet of Kilograms

5,000 25

0 - Jul 01 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 02 Feb Mar FEWS NET/ Chad Source: La Société des Abattoirs and SIM

Sheep/millet terms of trade were less favorable to sheep sellers in March than during December 2001 through February 2002. Thus, a sheep seller could exchange his sheep for 125 kg of millet (or about a 100 kg bag and a quarter) compared to 161 kg of millet in February and 133 kg in January. Although the sheep/millet terms of trade improved in N’djamena in favor of millet-selling farmers compared to the period of July through November 2001, they have dropped in March to the detriment of sheep-selling herders.

This decrease in sheep prices was foreseeable because people have just emerged from the end of the year and Tabaski celebrations. However, the April legislative elections may cause the price of sheep to rise again; during this electoral event sheep purchases increase to satisfy the followers of various political parties and the marabouts (religious leaders) who sometimes influence voters.