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Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: a Multidisciplinary Review

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Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: a Multidisciplinary Review Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Review Chris Eastaugh B Eng. (hons), Grad Cert Nat Res St., Research Student, MSc EF Programme, University of Joensuu IUFRO Secretariat, Vienna February 2008 International Union of Forest Research Organizations IUFRO Occasional Paper No. 21 ISSN 1024-414X International Union of Forest Research Organizations Union Internationale des Instituts de Recherche Forestière Unión Internacional de Organizaciones de Investigación Forestal Internationaler Verband Forstlicher Forschungsanstalten International Union of Forest Research Organizations Union Internationale des Instituts de Recherches Forestières Unión Internacional de Organizaciones de Investigación Forestal Internationaler Verband Forstlicher Forschungsanstalten IUFRO Occasional Paper No. 21 ISSN 1024-414X Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Review Chris Eastaugh B Eng. (hons), Grad Cert Nat Res St., Research Student, MSc EF programme, University of Joensuu, The following material has been submitted to the International Union of Forest Research Organisations for publication. Before citing this document, please contact IUFRO for updated details on the paper’s status. IUFRO Secretariat, Vienna February 2008 IUFRO Headquarters, Vienna, Austria, 2008 Copyright by IUFRO and the author Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Review Chris Eastaugh B Eng. (hons), Grad Cert Nat Res St., Research Student, MSc EF programme, University of Joensuu, IUFRO Secretariat, Vienna. February 2008 The following material has been submitted to the International Union of Forest Research Organisations for publication. Before citing this document, please contact IUFRO for updated details on the paper’s status. ABSTRACT Forests around the world are widely expected to face significant pressures from climate change over the coming century. Although the magnitudes of the projected temperature rises and precipitation changes are still uncertain, modelling based on mean figures shows that ecological, economic and social disruptions are likely. Ecological effects range from phenological changes and extensions of growing seasons to widespread forest structural changes, species migrations and extinctions. Warmer climates are overall expected to have a positive influence on the wood products industries, although some regions are predicted to benefit more than others and some may be disadvantaged. The social effects of climate change are highly uncertain, and projects to strengthen community resilience and reduce vulnerability are recommended. Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Review IUFRO Occasional Paper 21 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................2 2. CLIMATOLOGY, CLIMATE MODELLING AND SCENARIOS ...........................................3 2.1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................3 2.2. ENSO ....................................................................................................................................4 2.3. Vegetation effects on climate................................................................................................4 2.4. Climate models......................................................................................................................5 2.5. Local extreme events.............................................................................................................5 3. METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS TO ASSESS IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES ......6 3.1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................6 3.2. Vegetation classification schemes.........................................................................................6 3.3. Vegetation models.................................................................................................................6 4. IMPACTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS...................................................................................8 4.1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................8 4.2. Predicted impacts ..................................................................................................................8 4.3. Past and current observations..............................................................................................14 5. ECONOMIC IMPACTS ............................................................................................................21 5.1. Background .........................................................................................................................21 5.2. Dynamic modelling of the US timber market .....................................................................21 5.3. Regional Studies..................................................................................................................22 5.4. Global Studies .....................................................................................................................23 5.5. Market-driven adaptation ....................................................................................................28 6. SOCIAL IMPACTS ...................................................................................................................29 6.1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................29 6.2. Dependency, Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation...............................................................29 6.3. Impacts and Risks................................................................................................................31 7. TRADITIONAL FOREST KNOWLEDGE ..............................................................................37 7.1. Responses to Climate Variability........................................................................................37 7.2. Knowledge sources .............................................................................................................38 7.3. Knowledge transfer .............................................................................................................38 8. INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN FORESTS AND OTHER SYSTEMS/SECTORS..............39 8.1. Resource competition..........................................................................................................39 8.2. Synergies .............................................................................................................................39 8.3. Policy effects.......................................................................................................................40 9. INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY FRAMEWORKS ...............................................................41 9.1 Institutional Frameworks......................................................................................................41 9.2. Science/Policy Interface and Project Design ......................................................................43 9.3. Policy...................................................................................................................................43 10. GLOSSARY.............................................................................................................................47 11. REFERENCES.........................................................................................................................51 1 Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Review IUFRO Occasional Paper 21 1. INTRODUCTION Over the past decade several major reports have been produced that deal with the possible threats to forest environments in different parts of the world (WCMC, 1999; USDA, 2000; SilviStrat, 2005; IPCC, 2007b). This review will briefly summarise the pertinent points of these reports, and provide further details and references more closely aligned with the topic ‘Adaptations of Forests to Climate Change’. The work also builds on earlier reviews by Kräuchi (1993), Winnett (1998), Joyce and Nielson (eds, 2000), Hyvönen et al. (2007), Clark (2007), Kleine and Roberts (2007) and Sohngen et al. (2007) and extracts forest-specific material from Parmesan and Galbraith (2004), TROFCCA (2005) and Parmesan (2006). This paper will also extend prior reviews by combining the physical science review with discussion of economic and social impacts. Headings in this document are chosen to align with the areas of specialisation listed in the document “Selection Criteria and Process” of the Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change. This Expert Panel is currently (January 2008) being assembled by the International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO) in the framework of the Collaborative Partnership on Forests’ Joint Initiative on Science and Technology. Multidisciplinary reviews are rare, probably due to the impossibility of doing full justice to all the topics of discussion, and to the differences in basic assumptions and language used in different fields (Dewulf et al., 2007). This review does not present itself as a definitive review of each discipline, but is rather a roundup of each, intended to give a grounding to experts from other fields and stimulate cross-disciplinary discussion.
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