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EXPERT/GOVERNMENT REVIEW IPCC Technical Paper Do Not Cite Or Quote 1 Climate Change and Biodiversity IPCC Technical Paper On EXPERT/GOVERNMENT REVIEW IPCC Technical Paper 1 IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and Biodiversity 2 Requested by UN Convention on Biological Diversity 3 4 Co-Chairs: 5 Habiba Gitay (Australia), Avelino Suárez (Cuba), and Robert Watson (USA) 6 7 Lead Authors: 8 Oleg Anisimov (Russia), F.S. Chapin (USA), Rex Victor Cruz (Philippines), Max Finlayson (Australia), William 9 Hohenstein (USA), Gregory Insarov (Russia), Zbigniew Kundzewicz (Poland), Rik Leemans (The Netherlands), 10 Chris Magadza (Zimbabwe), Leonard Nurse (Barbados), Ian Noble (Australia), Jeff Price (USA), N.H. Ravindranath 11 (India), Terry Root (USA), Bob Scholes (South Africa), Alicia Villamizar (Venuezuela), and Xu Rumei (China) 12 13 Contributors: 14 Osvaldo Canziani (Argentina), David Griggs (UK), and Michael Prather (USA) 15 16 17 CONTENTS 18 19 Executive Summary 20 21 1. Background and Genesis of the Request for the Technical Paper 22 23 2. Introduction 24 2.1. Definition of Biodiversity in the Context of this Paper 25 2.2. Importance of Biodiversity in Meeting Human Needs 26 2.3. Pressures on Biodiversity from Human Activities 27 2.4. IPCC Definitions of Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation 28 29 3. Observed Changes in Climate 30 3.1. Observed Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 31 3.2. Observed Changes in Earth’s Surface Temperature and Precipitation 32 3.3. Observed Changes in Climate Variability 33 3.4. Observed Changes in Extreme Climatic Events 34 3.5. Observed Changes in Snow Cover, Sea and River Ice, Glaciers, and Sea Level 35 36 4. Projected Changes in Climate 37 4.1. Projected Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 38 4.2. Projected Changes in Earth’s Surface Temperature and Precipitation 39 4.3. Projected Changes in Climate Variability and Extreme Climatic Events 40 4.4. Projected Changes in Snow Cover, Sea and River Ice, Glaciers, and Sea Level 41 42 5. Observed Changes in Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems associated with Climate Change 43 5.1. Observed Changes in Terrestrial (including Aquatic) Species Distributions, Population Sizes, and 44 Community Composition 45 5.2. Observed Changes in Coastal and Marine Systems 46 47 6. Projected Impacts of Changes in Mean Climate and Extreme Climatic Events on Terrestrial (including 48 Aquatic) and Marine Ecosystems 49 6.1. Modeling Approaches Used for Projecting Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity 50 6.2. Projected Impacts on the Biodiversity of Terrestrial Systems 51 6.2.1. Impacts on Individuals, Populations, and Species Level 52 6.2.2. Ecosystem Responses and Biodiversity Maintenance 53 6.2.3. Biodiversity and Changes in Productivity 54 6.3. Projected Impacts on Biodiversity of Coastal and Marine Systems 55 6.3.1. Projected Impacts on Ecosystems in Coastal Regions 56 6.3.2. Projected Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Do Not Cite or Quote 1 Climate Change and Biodiversity EXPERT/GOVERNMENT REVIEW IPCC Technical Paper 1 6.4. Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Coastal, and Marine) 2 6.5. Impacts of Changes in Biodiversity on Regional and Global Climate 3 6.6. Projected Impacts on Traditional and Indigenous Peoples 4 6.7. Regional Impacts 5 6 7. Mitigation Options for Climate Change and their Potential Impacts on Biodiversity 7 7.1. Potential Impact of Afforestation, Reforestation, and Avoided Deforestation on Biodiversity 8 7.1.1. Potential Impacts of Reducing Deforestation on Biodiversity 9 7.1.2. Potential Impacts of Afforestation and Reforestation on Biodiversity 10 7.2. Potential Impacts of Land-Use Change and Land Management on Biodiversity 11 7.2.1. Potential Impacts of Agroforestry 12 7.2.2. Potential Impacts of Forest Management 13 7.2.3. Potential Impacts of Agriculture Sector Mitigation Activities 14 7.2.4. Potential Impacts of Grassland Management 15 7.3. Potential Impacts of Changing Energy Technologies and Geo-Engineering on Biodiversity 16 7.3.1. Efficient Wood Stoves and Biogas for Cooking and their Potential Impacts on Biodiversity 17 7.3.2. Potential Impacts of Increasing Biomass Energy 18 7.3.3. Potential Impacts of Hydropower 19 7.3.4. Potential Impacts of Windpower 20 7.3.5. Potential Impacts of Biological Uptake in Oceans 21 22 8. Consequences of Adaptation Options 23 8.1. Planning for Conservation under Present and Projected Climate Change 24 8.2. Effect of Adaptation Option for Climate Change on Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biological 25 Diversity 26 8.3. Impacts of Actions to Conserve and Sustainably Use Biological Diversity on Climate Change 27 28 9. Approaches, such as Sustainable Development, can be used to Assess the Impacts of Adaptation and 29 Mitigation Activities on Biodiversity 30 31 10. Identified Information and Assessment Gaps 32 33 Appendix 1: List of Relevant Literature Related to Biodiversity and Climate Change 34 Published since 1999–2000 35 36 37 Executive Summary 38 39 Human activities have and are causing a loss in biodiversity through land cover change, diversion of water to 40 intensively managed ecosystems and urban systems, soil and water degradation, habitat fragmentation, selective 41 exploitation or destruction of species and the introduction of exotic species. 42 43 Changes in climate exert an additional pressure and have already affected biodiversity. The atmospheric 44 concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased during the 20th century due to human activities, primarily the 45 combustion of fossil fuels and land-use and land-cover changes. This has contributed to changes in the Earth’s 46 climate; land and ocean surface temperatures have warmed, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation have 47 changed, sea level has risen, and during the last 20 years, the frequency and intensity of El Nino events has 48 increased. These changes, particularly the warmer temperatures, have affected the timing of reproduction or 49 migration events (phenology), the length of the growing season, species distributions and population sizes, and the 50 frequency of pest and disease outbreaks, with some coastal, high latitude/altitude ecosystems being the most 51 sensitive to changes in climatic factors. 52 53 Climate change is projected to affect all aspects of biodiversity but the projections have to take all human 54 activities (past, present and future) into account. The Earth’s mean surface temperature is projected to warm 1.4 to 55 5.8°C during the 21st century, with land areas warming more than the oceans, and the high latitudes warming more 56 than the tropics. The associated increase in sea level is projected to be 0.09 to 0.88m. In general, precipitation is Do Not Cite or Quote 2 Climate Change and Biodiversity EXPERT/GOVERNMENT REVIEW IPCC Technical Paper 1 projected to increase in high latitude and equatorial areas and decrease in subtropics, with an increase in heavy 2 precipitation events. Climate change is projected to affect individuals, populations, species distributions and 3 ecosystem composition and function both directly (for example through increases in temperature, changes in 4 precipitation and in the case of marine systems changes in sea level etc) and indirectly (for example through climate 5 changing the intensity and frequency of disturbances such as wildfires). The impacts of climate change will depend 6 on other significant processes such as habitat loss and fragmentation (or reconnection in the case of freshwater 7 bodies) and the introduction of exotic species. No realistic projection of the future state of the earth’s ecosystems 8 can be made without taking into account human land-use patterns; past, present and future, which will greatly affect 9 the ability of organisms to adapt to climate change via migration. 10 11 The general response of species to climate change is that the habitats of many species will move further poleward 12 or higher than their current location. Thus the composition of most current ecosystems is likely to change as 13 species that make up an ecosystem are unlikely to shift together. Species will be affected differently by climate 14 change; they will migrate at different rates through fragmented landscapes and ecosystems dominated by long-lived 15 species (e.g. long-lived trees) will often be slow to show evidence of change. 16 17 The risk of extinction will increase for many species, especially those that are already at risk due to factors such 18 as low population numbers, restricted or patchy habitats, and limited climatic ranges. Ecosystems that may be 19 most threatened by climate change include coral reefs, mangroves and other coastal wetlands, remnant ecosystems, 20 some ecosystems with restricted distribution and high latitude/high altitude ecosystems. 21 22 Loss of biodiversity does not necessarily imply loss of productivity, however, greater loss may pose serious threats 23 to the function of ecosystems including carbon storage. 24 25 Large-scale changes in vegetation as a response to climate change could further affect global and regional 26 climate through changes in the uptake and release of greenhouse gases and changes in albedo. 27 28 Climate mitigation options can either benefit or have adverse impact on biodiversity. Land-use, land-use change 29 and forestry projects (afforestation, deforestation, avoided deforestation, and improved forest, cropland and grazing 30 land management practices) and enhanced use of renewable energy technologies (hydropower, windpower and 31 biofuels) could have potential positive or negative impacts on biodiversity. The environmental and social impacts of 32 such projects could be assessed, and the risks of negative impacts can be reduced, through the application of sound 33 environmental and social impact assessment methodologies, selection criteria, appropriate management and the 34 involvement of local communities. Avoided deforestation projects in threatened/vulnerable forests that contain 35 assemblages of species that are unusually rich, globally rare, or unique to that region can provide greatest 36 biodiversity co-benefits with the avoidance of carbon emissions.
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