IP 56 ! ! ! ! "#$%&'!()$*+ ",-.!/01! -23!45'6 ! 37$8$%)$&!9:+ ";<- ! <7=#=%'>+ 2%#>=8? ! !

Impacts of Change on Ecosystems

! ! ! !

! /

IP 56 ! !

Impacts of on Antarctic Ecosystems

Information paper submitted by ASOC to the XXXI ATCM, Kiev, 2-14 June 2008 ATCM item 13 and CEP item 9a

Summary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

1. Introduction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`V!aFEK>HG!$)!'>M!UCCW6M!,?$!'9F%&'%E$!'%&!&=8)7=9F)=H%!HI!)?$!)GH!H%>:! 8A$E=$8!HI!%')=@$!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)8!?'@$!'>8H!=%E7$'8$&1!>=K$>:!'8!'!7$8F>)!HI!=%E7$'8=%#!8F**$7!)$*A$7')F7$8! 5THG9$7)!'%&!;*=)?1!/44`6M!-?'%#$8!=%!)?$!A?$%H>H#:!HI!8$'9=7&8!=%!2'8)!"%)'7E)=E'!?'@$!9$$%!H98$7@$&! 5]'797'F&!'%&!D$=*$78K=7E?1!UCCY6M!;FEE$88IF>!=%@'8=H%8!HI!%H%O=%&=#$%HF8!8A$E=$8!)H!8F9O"%)'7E)=E!=8>'%&8! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /!";<-+!,?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!->=*')$!-?'%#$M!",-.!bbc(((!(3!/C`V!",-.!bb(b!(3!YUV!",-.!bbb!(3![U!Z$@M!/V!;-"Z+!;)')$! HI!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!;HF)?$7%!=*')$!;:8)$*!5;";<-;6!",-.!bbb!(3!BV!SH7G':+!->=*')$!-?'%#$8M!",-.!bbb!D3! U[M! U!D'7*=%#!7')$!HI!c$7%'&8K:!\!T'7'&':!d!CMBY!-!A$7!&$E'&$!H@$7!A'8)!BC!:$'78!5,F7%$7!$)!'>M1!UCCB6V!Z')$!HI!#>H9'>!G'7*=%#!d! CM/0!-!A$7!&$E'&$!H@$7!>'8)!BC!:$'78!5(3--1!UCCW'6! ! 0 IP 56 ! ?'@$!9$$%!=&$%)=I=$&!'8!'!>=K$>:!EH%8$PF$%E$!HI!)?$!EH%)=%F=%#!)7$%&!HI!=%E7$'8=%#!?F*'%!'E)=@=)=$8!'%&! =%E7$'8=%#!)$*A$7')F7$8!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6M!

->=*')$!E?'%#$!=8!%H!>H%#$7!'%!=88F$!>=*=)$&!)H!)?$!&$@$>HA$&!'%&!*H7$!AHAF>')$&!A'7)8!HI!)?$!GH7>&M!(%! "%)'7E)=E'1!%H)!H%>:!)?$!EH*A>$L=)=$8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'7$!9$=%#!8)F&=$&!9F)!)?$!=*A'E)8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$! '7$!'>8H!9$EH*=%#!*'%=I$8)M!>!$L=8)!=%!?HG!)?$!EH*A>$L!A?:8=E'>!'%&!9=H>H#=E'>! 8:8)$*8!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!G=>>!=%)$7'E)!'8!)?$!2'7)?!EH%)=%F$8!)H!G'7*V!'%&!=%&$$&1!*'%:!HI!)?$!AH88=9>$! 8H>F)=H%8!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!%$$&!)H!9$!'&&7$88$&!')!'!#>H9'>!>$@$>M!eHG$@$71!)?$!-H%8F>)')=@$!3'7)=$8!)H!)?$! "%)'7E)=E!,7$'):!?'@$!EH**=))$&!)?$*8$>@$8!)H!A7H@=&$!EH*A7$?$%8=@$!A7H)$E)=H%!)H!)?$!"%)'7E)=E! $%@=7H%*$%)!'%&!=)8!&$A$%&$%)!$EH8:8)$*8!F%&$7!)?$!2%@=7H%*$%)'>!37H)HEH>M!!,?$7$IH7$1!'%&!9'8$&!H%!)?$! A7$E'F)=H%'7:!A7=%E=A>$1!-H%8F>)')=@$!3'7)=$8!8?HF>&!7$EH#%=Q$!)?$!'&@$78$!=*A'E)8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!H%! "%)'7E)=E'!'%&!)?$!;HF)?$7%!=*')$!E?'%#$!*=)=#')=H%!'%&!'&'A)')=H%!$IIH7)8M!

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Mitigation efforts

" (88F$!'!Z$8H>F)=H%!H7!H)?$7!'AA7HA7=')$!=%8)7F*$%)!'EK%HG>$&#=%#!)?$!'&@$78$!=*A'E)8!HI!E>=*')$! E?'%#$!H%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!;HF)?$7%!$&#=%#!)H!)'K$!8)$A8!9H)?!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!')! )?$!#>H9'>!>$@$>!)H!'@H=&!&'%#$7HF8!E>=*')$!E?'%#$M! " 28)'9>=8?!'!*'%&')H7:!H9>=#')=H%!)H!7$EH7&!)?$!#7$$%?HF8$!#'8!$*=88=H%8!I7H*!8)')=H%81!I=$>&!E'*A81! '=7E7'I)!'%&!@$88$>8!HI!'>>!):A$8!f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g:H)H!37H)HEH>1!'%&!AF)!=)!=%)H!HA$7')=H%!9:!UCC4M!

Adaptation strategies

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hF=&$>=%$8!TH7!]'>>'8)!D')$7!2LE?'%#$!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E! ,7$'):!"7$'M! " R7#$!--".iZ!.$*9$78!)H!)'K$!IF>>!'EEHF%)!H%!'!A7$E'F)=H%'7:!9'8=81!HI!)?$!AH)$%)='>!=*A'E)!HI! E>=*')$!E?'%#$!H%!)?$!*'7=%$!$EH8:8)$*!G?$%!)'K=%#!*'%'#$*$%)!'%&!EH%8$7@')=H%!&$E=8=H%8!H@$7! "%)'7E)=E!*'7=%$!>=@=%#!7$8HF7E$8M! " Z$EH#%=Q$!)?$!%$$&!IH7!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'&'A)')=H%!8)7')$#=$81!=%E>F&=%#!)?$!@'>F$!)?')!'!%$)GH7K!HI! .'7=%$!37H)$E)$&!"7$'8!E'%!97=%#!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'&'A)')=H%M!!

2. Impacts of Climate Change on the Antarctic Terrestrial Ecosystem

! ` IP 56 ! A. Native

,?$!*H8)!G=&$>:!PFH)$&!$L'*A>$!HI!'!7'A=&!7$8AH%8$!)H!7$E$%)!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!)$77$8)7='>! $EH8:8)$*!7$>')$8!)H!AHAF>')=H%8!HI!)?$!H%>:!)GH!%')=@$!"%)'7E)=E!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)81!"%)'7E)=E!?'=7!#7'88 5Deschampsia Antarctica6 '%&!"%)'7E)=E!A$'7>GH7)!!5Colobanthus quitensis6!5THG9$7)!'%&!;*=)?1!/44`V! h7H9$!$)!'>M1!/44WV!-H%@$:1!UCCY6M!]H)?!8A$E=$8!#7HG!H%!)?$!G$8)$7%!EH'8)!HI!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!iH%#O )$7*!8)F&=$8!?'@$!8?HG%!)?')!8H*$!AHAF>')=H%8!?'@$!=%E7$'8$&!9:!H%$!)H!)GH!H7&$78!HI!*'#%=)F&$!=%!'8!>=))>$! '8!0C!:$'78M!<)?$7!AHAF>')=H%8!?'@$!EH>H%=Q$&!%$G!'7$'8!HI!=E$OI7$$!#7HF%&!=%!)?$!@=E=%=):!HI!$L=8)=%#! 8A$E=*$%81!'>)?HF#?!)?$7$!=8!%H!H@$7'>>!=%E7$'8$!=%!)?$!8A$E=$8J!7'%#$8M!,?$8$!=%E7$'8$8!?'@$!9$$%!'))7=9F)$&! )H!G'7*$7!8F**$7!)$*A$7')F7$8!)?')1!=%!)F7%1!$%?'%E$&!8$$&!*')F7')=H%1!#$7*=%')=H%!'%&!8$$&>=%#!8F7@=@'>! 5-H%@$:1!UCCY6M!

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

2%?'%E$&!)$*A$7')F7$!F%&$7!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!*':1!I=78)>:1!=%E7$'8$!)?$!#$7*=%')=H%!7')$!HI!%')=@$!A>'%)8M! eHG$@$71!E?'%#$8!=%!)$*A$7')F7$!'%&!G')$7!'@'=>'9=>=):!'7$!'>8H!$LA$E)$&!)H!'II$E)!8$$&!HF)AF)!'%&!I$7)=>=):! '%&!8$$&>=%#!8F7@=@'>1!*'K=%#!)?$!EH*9=%$&!EH%8$PF$%E$8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!H%!)?$!EH>H%=Q')=H%!8FEE$88!HI! =%&=@=&F'>!8A$E=$8!?'7&!)H!A7$&=E)!5e$%%=H%!$)!'>M1!UCCY6M!<%!8F9'%)'7E)=E!.'EPF'7=$!(8>'%&1!D?=%'*!'%&! -HA8H%!5UCCY6!?'@$!7$AH7)$&!7$E$%)!'%&!EH%8=&$7'9>$!&$E7$'8$8!=%!)?$!HEEF77$%E$!HI!)?$!9H##:!*=7$!*H88! 5Sphagnum falcatulum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

B. Alien species

()!=8!E>$'7!I7H*!)7'%8A>'%)!$LA$7=*$%)8!E'77=$&!HF)!&F7=%#!)?$!/4YC8!52&G'7&8!'%&!h7$$%$1!/4W0V!2&G'7&81! /4[C61!'%&!I7H*!)?$!*'%:!'EE=&$%)'>!=%)7H&FE)=H%8!)H!8F9O"%)'7E)=E!=8>'%&8!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6!)?')!*'%:! %H%O"%)'7E)=E!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)8!'7$!E'A'9>$!HI!$8)'9>=8?*$%)!=I!)?$!A7H9>$*8!HI!&=8A$78'>!E'%!9$!H@$7EH*$! 5-H%@$:!'%&!;*=)?1!UCCY6M!;H*$!HI!)?$8$!8A$E=$8!'7$!=%@'8=@$1!'%&!?'@$!7'A=&>:!HEEFA=$&!'7$'8!G?$7$! =%&=#$%HF8!A>'%)!EH**F%=)=$8!?'@$!9$$%!7$*H@$&!9:!@$7)$97')$!'E)=@=):1!A'7)=EF>'7>:!#7'Q=%#!9:!=%)7H&FE$&! 7$=%&$$7!5-H%@$:!'%&!;*=)?1!UCCY6M!!

<@$7!7$E$%)!&$E'&$81!)?$!&=@$78=):!'%&!=%)$%8=):!HI!?F*'%!'E)=@=)=$8!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!?'@$!=%E7$'8$&M!;E=$%)=8)81! )HF7=8)8!'%&!8FAAH7)!A$78H%%$>!'77=@$!9:!8?=A!'%&!9:!'=7M!D=)?HF)!$II$E)=@$!PF'7'%)=%$!*$'8F7$81!'>=$%! H7#'%=8*8!EHF>&!9$!)7'%8AH7)$&!I7H*!'>>!;HF)?$7%!e$*=8A?$7$!EH%)=%$%)8!)H!"%)'7E)=E'!9:!'=7!G=)?=%!'!0O4!?! A$7=H&M!;E=$%)=8)8!'%&!)HF7=8)8!'7$!&=8A7HAH7)=H%')$>:!'))7'E)$&!)H!8=)$8!HI!?=#?!\!*$&=F*!9=H&=@$78=):M!;=)$8! G?$7$!)?$!)GH!8A$E=$8!HI!%')=@$!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)8!HEEF7!H%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!'7$!>=K$>:!)H!9$!)?H8$!*H8)! ')!7=8K!HI!=%)7H&FE)=H%8M!h7$')$7!%F*9$78!HI!8?=A8!'%&!)HF7=8)8!G=>>!>$'&!)H!#7$')$7!E?'%E$8!HI!=%)7H&FE)=H%8M! ;=)$8!HI!?=#?!AHAF>'7=):!'7$!%H)!EH%8=8)$%)!H@$7!)=*$1!*$'%=%#!)?')!)?$!AH)$%)='>!IH7!?F*'%!=*A'E)!=8!%H)! EH%)'=%$&!)H!'!%F*9$7!HI!8A$E=I=E!8=)$8M!,?$!7'%#$!HI!)HF7=8)!'E)=@=)=$8!=8!$LA'%&=%#1!=%E>F&=%#!*H@$*$%)! )?7HF#?!>'7#$7!'7$'8!H7!@=8=)8!)H!*H7$!=8>'%&81!7$8F>)=%#!=%!'%!=%E7$'8$!=%!)?$!E?'%E$8!HI!8A7$'&=%#!'>=$%! 8A$E=$8!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6M!!

"!G'7*$7!E>=*')$!G=>>!IF7)?$7!$%?'%E$!'>=$%!=%@'8=H%!'8!'>=$%!8A$E=$8!G=>>!9$!'9>$!)H!$8)'9>=8?!)?$*8$>@$8! *H7$!$'8=>:!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!H%E$!)?$:!'77=@$M!R%&$7!*H8)!)?7$')!'7$!7$>')=@$>:!*=>&$7!'7$'8!G=)?!=%E7$'8$&! ?F*'%!@=8=)')=H%!'%&!)?$!*H8)!&7'*')=E!E?'%#$8!=%!$%@=7H%*$%)'>!EH%&=)=H%8M!;HF)?!h$H7#='1!G=)?!E>=*')$! G'7*=%#1!#>'E='>!7$)7$')!f!=)8$>I!'!EH%8$PF$%E$!HI!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#!O!'%&!'!>'7#$!'%&!=%E7$'8=%#!%F*9$7!HI! @=8=)H781!F%&HF9)$&>:!8)'%&8!HF)!'8!)?$!*H8)!)?7$')$%$&!'7$'!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6M!TF7)?$7*H7$1!8>HG!

! B IP 56 ! 7$A7H&FE)=H%!7')$8!&F7=%#!7'A=&!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!*':!>=*=)!)?$!AH88=9>$!7$>HE')=H%!HI!%')=@$!8A$E=$8!5(3--1! UCCW96M!

3. Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Marine Ecosystems

]=H>H#=E'>!=*A'E)8!'7$!*H8)!>=K$>:!)H!9$!$@=&$%)!=%!'7$'8!G?$7$!)?$!G$')?$7!A'))$7%8!'7$!E?'%#=%#!*H8)! &7'*')=E'>>:1!=M$M!)?$!ZH88!;$'!'%&!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!7$#=H%8M!(%!)?$!%H7)?G$8)$7%!D$&&$>>!'%&! 8HF)?$7%!]$>>=%#8?'F8$%!8$'8!5aH*'EK!$)!'>M1!UCC061!8F7I'E$!'=7!)$*A$7')F7$!7$EH7&81!7$@$'>!'!G'7*=%#!=%! G=%)$7!HI!BfY!-!H@$7!)?$!A'8)!BC!:$'781!'!G'7*=%#!7')$!)?')!$LE$$&8!'%:!H)?$7!H98$7@$&!#>H9'>>:!5c'F#?'%!$)! '>M!UCC0V!aFEK>HG1!UCCW6M!<%!)?$!H)?$7!?'%&1!EHH>=%#!=8!HEEF77=%#!=%!)?$!ZH88!;$'\G$8)$7%!3'E=I=E!8$E)H7!HI! )?$!EH%)=%$%)M!

A. : fastest warming on Earth

">H%#!)?$!D$8)$7%!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'1!8$'!=E$!$L)$%)!?'8!&$E7$'8$&!9:!`Cj!H@$7!)?$!UYO:$'7!A$7=H&!I7H*! /4W4!)H!UCC`!5aFEK>HG!$)!'>M1!UCCWV!;)'**$7NH?%!$)!'>M1!UCC[6M!,?$!'&@'%E$!HI!8$'!=E$!%HG!HEEF78!>')$7!'%&! )?$!7$)7$')!HEEF78!$'7>=$71!7$8F>)=%#!=%!'!&$E7$'8$!HI!'AA7HL=*')$>:!)?7$$!*H%)?8!=%!)?$!G=%)$7!8$'!=E$!A$7=H&! 58$$!'>8H!3'7K=%8H%1!UCCU6M!"=7!)$*A$7')F7$!?'8!7=8$%!G$>>!'9H@$!I7$$Q=%#!IH7!*FE?!HI!)?$!:$'7!'%&!=%!8H*$! :$'781!)?$!7$#=H%!?'@$!9$$%!EH*A>$)$>:!I7$$!HI!8$'!=E$M!D?$7$!'@$7'#$!'%%F'>!)$*A$7')F7$8!?'@$!7=8$%!'9H@$! OY!-1!=E$!8?$>@$8!?'@$!9$#F%!)H!&=8=%)$#7')$!5c'F#?'%!'%&!aH'K$1!/44Y61!8?HG%!*H8)!#7'A?=E'>>:!9:!)?$! i'78$%!]!'%&!D=>K=%8!=E$!8?$>@$8M!

(%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!7$#=H%1!AHAF>')=H%8!HI!"&_>=$!A$%#F=%8!5Pygoscelis adeliae6!?'@$!&7HAA$&!9:!YBj! H@$7!)?$!A'8)!UB!:$'78M!"%)'7E)=E!K7=>>!5Euphausia superba6!'%&!8=>@$7I=8?!5Pleuragramma antarcticum6!f "&_>=$!A$%#F=%8J!A7=*'7:!IHH&!8HF7E$!&F7=%#!8F**$7f!?'@$!9$$%!&$E7$'8=%#!5")K=%8H%!$)!'>M!UCC`V!2*8>=$! '%&!3'))$78H%!UCCW6M!D'7*$7!)$*A$7')F7$8!'>8H!?'@$!'>>HG$&!)?$!')*H8A?$7$!)H!?H>&!*H7$!*H=8)F7$1!)?F8! 97=%#=%#!*H7$!8%HG!'%&!?$%E$!'!7$&FE$&!>'%&!'7$'!H%!G?=E?!"&_>=$!A$%#F=%8!E'%!%$8)!5aFEK>HG!$)!'>M1! UCCW6M!.$'%G?=>$1!)?$!HA$%OG')$7!EHF8=%8!HI!)?$!"&_>=$8!O!)?$!E?=%8)7'A!5Pygoscelis antarctica61!'%&!#$%)HH! 5Pygoscelis papua6!A$%#F=%8!f!?'@$!=%@'&$&!)?=8!7$#=H%!'8!)?$!8$'!=E$!&=8'AA$'78M!,?$8$!)GH!8A$E=$8!'7$!%H)! 'II$E)$&!9:!)?$!=%E7$'8$&!8%HGI'>>!8=%E$!)?$:!97$$&!*FE?!>')$71!H%E$!'%:!I'>>$%!8%HG!?'8!*$>)$&!5a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rctocephalus gazella6!AHAF>')=H%81!'%!=E$O'@H=&=%#!8A$E=$81!'%&!AH88=9>$!&$E7$'8$8!=%!)?$!A'EKO=E$!8$'>81! $8A$E='>>:!E7'9$')$7!5Lobodon carcinophagus6!5aFEK>HG!$)!'>M1!UCCWV!;=%=II!$)!'>M1!=%!A7$886M!")K=%8H%!$)!'>M! 5UCC`6!?'@$!8?HG%!)?')!'!8=#%=I=E'%)!&$E7$'8$!=%!"%)'7E)=E!K7=>>!'9F%&'%E$!=%!)?=8!7$#=H%!EH77$>')$8!G$>>!G=)?! &$E>=%=%#!8$'!=E$M!! ! ]7$$&=%#!8FEE$88!HI!8$@$7'>!8A$E=$8!?'8!9$$%!>=%K$&!)H!$%@=7H%*$%)'>!@'7='9>$8!8FE?!'8!8$'!8F7I'E$! )$*A$7')F7$!'%&!8$'!=E$!EH@$7M!T7'8$7!'%&!eHI*'%%!5UCC06!&$*H%8)7')$&!'!&=7$E)1!E'F8'>!7$>')=H%8?=A! 9$)G$$%!@'7='9=>=):!=%!=E$!EH@$71!K7=>>!7$E7F=)*$%)1!A7$:!'@'=>'9=>=):!'%&!A7$&')H7!IH7'#=%#!$EH>H#:M!i$'A$7!$)! '>M!5UCCY6!8?HG$&!)?')!)?$!E'>@=%#!8FEE$88!HI!8HF)?$7%!7=#?)!G?'>$8!5Eubalaena australis6!97$$&=%#!=%! "7#$%)=%'!=8!7$>')$&!)H!8$'!8F7I'E$!)$*A$7')F7$8!')!;HF)?!h$H7#='1!A7H9'9>:!)?$=7!*'NH7!I$$&=%#!#7HF%&!=%!)?$! 8HF)?G$8)!")>'%)=EM!3HH7!E'>@=%#!HF)AF)!IH>>HG$&!:$'78!G=)?!G'7*!)$*A$7')F7$!'%H*'>=$81!'%&!9$))$7!E'>@=%#! HF)AF)!IH>>HG$&!:$'78!G=)?!EH>&!)$*A$7')F7$!'%H*'>=$8M!,7')?'%!$)!'>M!5UCCY6!'%&!TH7E'&'!$)!'>M!5UCCB6! 8?HG$&!)?')!8)7H%#!>=%K8!$L=8)!9$)G$$%!)?$!97$$&=%#!A$7IH7*'%E$!HI!"%)'7E)=E!IF7!8$'>8!')!;HF)?!h$H7#='!'%&! 8$'!8F7I'E$!)$*A$7')F7$8!&F7=%#!)?$!A7$E$&=%#!G=%)$7!A$7=H&M!!

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! Y IP 56 ! 97$$&=%#!A$7IH7*'%E$M!iH%#$7O)$7*!8)F&=$8!'7$!8)=>>!%$$&$&!=%!H7&$7!)H!IF>>:!F%&$78)'%&!?HG!)?$!A?:8=E'>! $%@=7H%*$%)!'II$E)8!K7=>>!AHAF>')=H%!&:%'*=E8!'%&!FAA$7!)7HA?=E!>$@$>8!5,7')?'%!$)!'>M1!UCCW6M!! eF*'%! $L)7'E)=H%! HI! 9=H>H#=E'>! 7$8HF7E$8! A7$8$%)8! '! EH%IHF%&=%#! I'E)H7! =%! )?$! =&$%)=I=E')=H%! HI! E>=*')$! E?'%#$! 7$8AH%8$M! e'7@$8)=%#! ?'8! ?'&! @'7=HF8! =*A'E)8! FAH%! )?$! ;HF)?$7%! '7>:! )?')! HI! )?$! ;EH)='\"%)'7E)=E! 3$%=%8F>'! 7$#=H%1! =M$M! >H88! '%&! I'=>F7$! )H! 7$EH@$7! HI! G?'>$8! '%&! #7HF%&! I=8?! &F7=%#! )?$! /4YC8O$'7>:! /4WC8! 5]'>>'%E$! $)! '>M! UCCYV! g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

B. Observed changes: big and small, shallow and deep

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! [ IP 56 ! 4. References

"=%>$:1!aMhM1!->'7K$1!2MaM1!"77=#H1!gM1!T7'8$71!DMZM1!g')H1!"M1!]'7)H%1!gMXM!'%&!3MZM!D=>8H%M!UCCBM!a$E'&'>O 8E'>$!E?'%#$8!=%!)?$!E>=*')$!'%&!9=H)'!HI!)?$!3'E=I=E!8$E)H7!HI!)?$!;HF)?$7%!1!cM1!3'K?H*H@1!2M!'%&!3M!ZH)?$7:M!UCC`M!iH%#O)$7*!&$E>=%$!=%!K7=>>!8)HEK!'%&!=%E7$'8$! =%!8'>A8!G=)?=%!)?$!;HF)?$7%!>'%E$1!iM1!3=)*'%1!ZMiM1!e$G=))1!ZM3M1!;=%=II1!aM]M1!,7=@$>A=$E$1!DM^M1!->'A?'*1!3MXM!'%&!ZMiM!]7HG%$>>1! X7M!UCCYM!,?$!7$*H@'>!HI!>'7#$!G?'>$8!I7H*!)?$!;HF)?$7%!H%#O)$7*!$EH8:8)$*!$II$E)8m! (%+!28)$81!XM"M1!a$*'8)$71!aM3M1!aH'K1!aMTM!D=>>='*81!,M2M!'%&!ZMiM!]7HG%$>>1!X7M!5$&8M6!D?'>$81!G?'>=%#!'%&! HE$'%!$EH8:8)$*8M!R%=@$78=):!HI!-'>=IH7%='!37$881!]$7K$>$:1!AAM!U/BOU0CM! ! ]'797'F&1!-M!'%&!eM!D$=*$78K=7E?M!UCCYM!"%)'7E)=E!9=7&8!97$$&!>')$7!=%!7$8AH%8$!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$M! 37HE$$&=%#8!HI!)?$!S')=H%'>!"E'&$*:!HI!;E=$%E$1/C01!5/Y61!YU`[OYUB/! ! ]'797'F&1!-M!'%&!eM!D$=*$78K=7E?M!UCC/M!2*A$7H7!A$%#F=%8!'%&!E>=*')$!E?'%#$M!S')F7$1!//1!/[0f/[YM! ! ]'7%$81!aMgM"M1!D$991!gM!'%&!gM!i=%8$M!UCCYM!;>HG!#7HG)?!HI!"%)'7E)=E!97:HQH'%8!=%E7$'8$8!H@$7!UC!:$'78! '%&!=8!'%H*'>HF8>:!?=#?!=%!UCC0M!.'7=%$!2EH>H#:!37H#7$88!;$7=$81!0/`1!/[WO/4BM! ! ]$7>HG1!2MiM!/444M!;)7H%#!$II$E)8!HI!G$'K!=%)$7'E)=H%8!=%!$EH>H#=E'>!EH**F%=)=$8M!S')F7$1!04[1!00CO00`M! ! ]7F%H1!XMTM!'%&!.M(M!H#:!i$))$781![1!/C`[O/CBYM! ! ->'7K$1!"M1!.F7A?:1!2M!XM1!.$7$&=)?1!.M!3M1!g=%#1!XM!-M1!3$EK1!iM!;M1!]'7%$81!aM!gM!"M!'%&!ZM-M1!;*=)?M!UCCWM! ->=*')$!E?'%#$!'%&!)?$!*'7=%$!$EH8:8)$*!HI!)?$!G$8)$7%!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!3?=>H8HA?=E'>!,7'%8'E)=H%8!HI! )?$!ZH:'>!;HE=$):!]1!0YU1!/`4f/YYM!! ! -H%@$:1!3M!UCCYM!"%)'7E)=E!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'%&!=)8!=%I>F$%E$8!H%!)$77$8)7='>!$EH8:8)$*8M!(%+!]$7#8)7H*1!aM1! -H%@$:1!3M!'%&!"MeMiM!eF=8K$8!5$&8M6M!,7$%&8!=%!"%)'7E)=E!,$77$8)7='>!'%&!i=*%$)=E!2EH8:8)$*8M!"%)'7E)=E'! '8!'!#>H9'>!=%&=E')H7M!;A7=%#$71!aH7&7$E?)1!,?$!S$)?$7>'%&81!AAM!UB0OUWUM! ! -H%@$:1!3M!UCC/M!,$77$8)7='>!$EH8:8)$*!7$8AH%8$!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$8!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=EM!(%+!D'>)$71!hMZM1! ]F7#'1!-M"M!'%&!2&G'7&81!3MXM!5$&8M6!nT=%#$7A7=%)8o!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!f!'&'A)$&!9$?'@=HF7!'%&!8?=I)=%#! 7'%#$8M!g>FG$71!S$G!pH7K1!AAM!/WO`UM! ! -H%@$:1!3M!'%&!ZM(MiM!;*=)?M!UCCYM!Z$8AH%8$8!HI!)$77$8)7='>!"%)'7E)=E!$EH8:8)$*8!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$M!3>'%)! 2EH>H#:1!/[U1!/f/CM! ! -7HL'>>1!XM3M1!,7')?'%1!3M!SM!'%&!2MXM!.F7A?:M!UCCUM!2%@=7H%*$%)'>!E?'%#$!'%&!"%)'7E)=E!8$'9=7&! AHAF>')=H%8M!;E=$%E$1!U4W1!/B/CO/B/`M! ! a':)H%1!3MgM!/4[4M!(%)$7&$E'&'>!@'7=')=H%!=%!'%!"%)'7E)=E!8AH%#$!'%&!=)8!A7$&')H78!I7H*!HE$'%H#7'A?=E! E>=*')$!8?=I)8M!S')F7$1!U`B1!/`[`O/`[YM! ! aH*'EK1!2M1!i$@$%)$71!"M1!]F7%$))1!"M1!]=%&8E?'&>$71!ZM1!-H%@$:1!3M!'%&!.M!g=79:M!UCC0M!"%)'7E)=E! 3$%=%8F>'!E>=*')$!@'7='9=>=):+!?=8)H7=E'>!'%&!A'>$H$%@=7H%*$%)'>!A$78A$E)=@$8M!D'8?=%#)H%1!a-+!"*$7=E'%! h$HA?:8=E'>!R%=H%M! ! aFEK>HG1!eMDM1!]'K$71!gM1!.'7)=%8H%1!aMhM1!qF$)=%1!iM]M1!ZH881!ZM.M1!;*=)?1!ZM-M1!;)'**$7NH?%1!;M2M1! c$7%$)1!.M!'%&!DM!T7'8$7M!UCCWM!.'7=%$!A$>'#=E!$EH8:8)$*8+!)?$!D$8)!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!3?=>H8HA?=E'>! ,7'%8'E)=H%8!HI!)?$!ZH:'>!;HE=$):!]1!0YU1!YWf4`M! !

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