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Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems

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Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems IP 56 ! ! ! ! "#$%&'!()$*+ ",-.!/01! -23!45'6 ! 37$8$%)$&!9:+ ";<- ! <7=#=%'>+ 2%#>=8? ! ! Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems ! ! ! ! ! / IP 56 ! ! Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems Information paper submitted by ASOC to the XXXI ATCM, Kiev, 2-14 June 2008 ATCM item 13 and CEP item 9a Summary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ntroduction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`V!aFEK>HG!$)!'>M!UCCW6M!,?$!'9F%&'%E$!'%&!&=8)7=9F)=H%!HI!)?$!)GH!H%>:! 8A$E=$8!HI!%')=@$!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)8!?'@$!'>8H!=%E7$'8$&1!>=K$>:!'8!'!7$8F>)!HI!=%E7$'8=%#!8F**$7!)$*A$7')F7$8! 5THG9$7)!'%&!;*=)?1!/44`6M!-?'%#$8!=%!)?$!A?$%H>H#:!HI!8$'9=7&8!=%!2'8)!"%)'7E)=E'!?'@$!9$$%!H98$7@$&! 5]'797'F&!'%&!D$=*$78K=7E?1!UCCY6M!;FEE$88IF>!=%@'8=H%8!HI!%H%O=%&=#$%HF8!8A$E=$8!)H!8F9O"%)'7E)=E!=8>'%&8! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /!";<-+!,?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!->=*')$!-?'%#$M!",-.!bbc(((!(3!/C`V!",-.!bb(b!(3!YUV!",-.!bbb!(3![U!Z$@M!/V!;-"Z+!;)')$! HI!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!'%&!;HF)?$7%!<E$'%!->=*')$!;:8)$*!5;";<-;6!",-.!bbb!(3!BV!SH7G':+!->=*')$!-?'%#$8M!",-.!bbb!D3! U[M! U!D'7*=%#!7')$!HI!c$7%'&8K:!\!T'7'&':!d!CMBY!-!A$7!&$E'&$!H@$7!A'8)!BC!:$'78!5,F7%$7!$)!'>M1!UCCB6V!Z')$!HI!#>H9'>!G'7*=%#!d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eHG$@$71!)?$!-H%8F>)')=@$!3'7)=$8!)H!)?$! "%)'7E)=E!,7$'):!?'@$!EH**=))$&!)?$*8$>@$8!)H!A7H@=&$!EH*A7$?$%8=@$!A7H)$E)=H%!)H!)?$!"%)'7E)=E! $%@=7H%*$%)!'%&!=)8!&$A$%&$%)!$EH8:8)$*8!F%&$7!)?$!2%@=7H%*$%)'>!37H)HEH>M!!,?$7$IH7$1!'%&!9'8$&!H%!)?$! 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" (%=)=')$!'&&=)=H%'>!8)$A8!)H!7$&FE$!)?$!#7$$%?HF8$!#'8!$*=88=H%8!I7H*!)?$8$!8HF7E$8!)?7HF#?!$%$7#:! $II=E=$%E:1!EH%8$7@')=H%!'%&!7$%$G'9>$!$%$7#:!=%=)=')=@$8!')!$'E?!8)')=H%!'%&!I=$>&!E'*A1!'%&!)?7HF#?! H)?$7!'AA7H'E?$8!IH7!H)?$7!8HF7E$8M!! " 28)'9>=8?!'!IH7*'>!A7H#7'*!)H!HIIO8$)!#7$$%?HF8$!#'8!$*=88=H%8!I7H*!'>>!8)')=H%81!@$88$>8!'%&!'=7E7'I)81! #=@$%!)?')!)?H8$!'7$!%H)!EH@$7$&!9:!)?$!g:H)H!37H)HEH>1!'%&!AF)!=)!=%)H!HA$7')=H%!9:!UCC4M! Adaptation strategies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hF=&$>=%$8!TH7!]'>>'8)!D')$7!2LE?'%#$!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E! ,7$'):!"7$'M! " R7#$!--".iZ!.$*9$78!)H!)'K$!IF>>!'EEHF%)!H%!'!A7$E'F)=H%'7:!9'8=81!HI!)?$!AH)$%)='>!=*A'E)!HI! E>=*')$!E?'%#$!H%!)?$!*'7=%$!$EH8:8)$*!G?$%!)'K=%#!*'%'#$*$%)!'%&!EH%8$7@')=H%!&$E=8=H%8!H@$7! "%)'7E)=E!*'7=%$!>=@=%#!7$8HF7E$8M! " Z$EH#%=Q$!)?$!%$$&!IH7!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'&'A)')=H%!8)7')$#=$81!=%E>F&=%#!)?$!@'>F$!)?')!'!%$)GH7K!HI! .'7=%$!37H)$E)$&!"7$'8!E'%!97=%#!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'&'A)')=H%M!! 2. Impacts of Climate Change on the Antarctic Terrestrial Ecosystem ! ` IP 56 ! A. Native species ,?$!*H8)!G=&$>:!PFH)$&!$L'*A>$!HI!'!7'A=&!7$8AH%8$!)H!7$E$%)!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!)$77$8)7='>! $EH8:8)$*!7$>')$8!)H!AHAF>')=H%8!HI!)?$!H%>:!)GH!%')=@$!"%)'7E)=E!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)81!"%)'7E)=E!?'=7!#7'88 5Deschampsia Antarctica6 '%&!"%)'7E)=E!A$'7>GH7)!!5Colobanthus quitensis6!5THG9$7)!'%&!;*=)?1!/44`V! h7H9$!$)!'>M1!/44WV!-H%@$:1!UCCY6M!]H)?!8A$E=$8!#7HG!H%!)?$!G$8)$7%!EH'8)!HI!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!iH%#O )$7*!8)F&=$8!?'@$!8?HG%!)?')!8H*$!AHAF>')=H%8!?'@$!=%E7$'8$&!9:!H%$!)H!)GH!H7&$78!HI!*'#%=)F&$!=%!'8!>=))>$! '8!0C!:$'78M!<)?$7!AHAF>')=H%8!?'@$!EH>H%=Q$&!%$G!'7$'8!HI!=E$OI7$$!#7HF%&!=%!)?$!@=E=%=):!HI!$L=8)=%#! 8A$E=*$%81!'>)?HF#?!)?$7$!=8!%H!H@$7'>>!=%E7$'8$!=%!)?$!8A$E=$8J!7'%#$8M!,?$8$!=%E7$'8$8!?'@$!9$$%!'))7=9F)$&! )H!G'7*$7!8F**$7!)$*A$7')F7$8!)?')1!=%!)F7%1!$%?'%E$&!8$$&!*')F7')=H%1!#$7*=%')=H%!'%&!8$$&>=%#!8F7@=@'>! 5-H%@$:1!UCCY6M! 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