IP 56 ! ! ! ! "#$%&'!()$*+ ",-.!/01! -23!45'6 ! 37$8$%)$&!9:+ ";<- ! <7=#=%'>+ 2%#>=8? ! !
Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems
! ! ! !
! /
IP 56 ! !
Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Ecosystems
Information paper submitted by ASOC to the XXXI ATCM, Kiev, 2-14 June 2008 ATCM item 13 and CEP item 9a
Summary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
1. Introduction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
->=*')$!E?'%#$!=8!%H!>H%#$7!'%!=88F$!>=*=)$&!)H!)?$!&$@$>HA$&!'%&!*H7$!AHAF>')$&!A'7)8!HI!)?$!GH7>&M!(%! "%)'7E)=E'1!%H)!H%>:!)?$!EH*A>$L=)=$8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!'7$!9$=%#!8)F&=$&!9F)!)?$!=*A'E)8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$! '7$!'>8H!9$EH*=%#!*'%=I$8)M!>!$L=8)!=%!?HG!)?$!EH*A>$L!A?:8=E'>!'%&!9=H>H#=E'>! 8:8)$*8!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!G=>>!=%)$7'E)!'8!)?$!2'7)?!EH%)=%F$8!)H!G'7*V!'%&!=%&$$&1!*'%:!HI!)?$!AH88=9>$! 8H>F)=H%8!)H!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!%$$&!)H!9$!'&&7$88$&!')!'!#>H9'>!>$@$>M!eHG$@$71!)?$!-H%8F>)')=@$!3'7)=$8!)H!)?$! "%)'7E)=E!,7$'):!?'@$!EH**=))$&!)?$*8$>@$8!)H!A7H@=&$!EH*A7$?$%8=@$!A7H)$E)=H%!)H!)?$!"%)'7E)=E! $%@=7H%*$%)!'%&!=)8!&$A$%&$%)!$EH8:8)$*8!F%&$7!)?$!2%@=7H%*$%)'>!37H)HEH>M!!,?$7$IH7$1!'%&!9'8$&!H%!)?$! A7$E'F)=H%'7:!A7=%E=A>$1!-H%8F>)')=@$!3'7)=$8!8?HF>&!7$EH#%=Q$!)?$!'&@$78$!=*A'E)8!HI!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!H%! "%)'7E)=E'!'%&!)?$!;HF)?$7%!
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Mitigation efforts
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Adaptation strategies
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2. Impacts of Climate Change on the Antarctic Terrestrial Ecosystem
! ` IP 56 ! A. Native species
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B. Alien species
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<@$7!7$E$%)!&$E'&$81!)?$!&=@$78=):!'%&!=%)$%8=):!HI!?F*'%!'E)=@=)=$8!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!?'@$!=%E7$'8$&M!;E=$%)=8)81! )HF7=8)8!'%&!8FAAH7)!A$78H%%$>!'77=@$!9:!8?=A!'%&!9:!'=7M!D=)?HF)!$II$E)=@$!PF'7'%)=%$!*$'8F7$81!'>=$%! H7#'%=8*8!EHF>&!9$!)7'%8AH7)$&!I7H*!'>>!;HF)?$7%!e$*=8A?$7$!EH%)=%$%)8!)H!"%)'7E)=E'!9:!'=7!G=)?=%!'!0O4!?! A$7=H&M!;E=$%)=8)8!'%&!)HF7=8)8!'7$!&=8A7HAH7)=H%')$>:!'))7'E)$&!)H!8=)$8!HI!?=#?!\!*$&=F*!9=H&=@$78=):M!;=)$8! G?$7$!)?$!)GH!8A$E=$8!HI!%')=@$!I>HG$7=%#!A>'%)8!HEEF7!H%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!'7$!>=K$>:!)H!9$!)?H8$!*H8)! ')!7=8K!HI!=%)7H&FE)=H%8M!h7$')$7!%F*9$78!HI!8?=A8!'%&!)HF7=8)8!G=>>!>$'&!)H!#7$')$7!E?'%E$8!HI!=%)7H&FE)=H%8M! ;=)$8!HI!?=#?!AHAF>'7=):!'7$!%H)!EH%8=8)$%)!H@$7!)=*$1!*$'%=%#!)?')!)?$!AH)$%)='>!IH7!?F*'%!=*A'E)!=8!%H)! EH%)'=%$&!)H!'!%F*9$7!HI!8A$E=I=E!8=)$8M!,?$!7'%#$!HI!)HF7=8)!'E)=@=)=$8!=8!$LA'%&=%#1!=%E>F&=%#!*H@$*$%)! )?7HF#?!>'7#$7!'7$'8!H7!@=8=)8!)H!*H7$!=8>'%&81!7$8F>)=%#!=%!'%!=%E7$'8$!=%!)?$!E?'%E$8!HI!8A7$'&=%#!'>=$%! 8A$E=$8!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6M!!
"!G'7*$7!E>=*')$!G=>>!IF7)?$7!$%?'%E$!'>=$%!=%@'8=H%!'8!'>=$%!8A$E=$8!G=>>!9$!'9>$!)H!$8)'9>=8?!)?$*8$>@$8! *H7$!$'8=>:!=%!"%)'7E)=E'!H%E$!)?$:!'77=@$M!R%&$7!*H8)!)?7$')!'7$!7$>')=@$>:!*=>&$7!'7$'8!G=)?!=%E7$'8$&! ?F*'%!@=8=)')=H%!'%&!)?$!*H8)!&7'*')=E!E?'%#$8!=%!$%@=7H%*$%)'>!EH%&=)=H%8M!;HF)?!h$H7#='1!G=)?!E>=*')$! G'7*=%#1!#>'E='>!7$)7$')!f!=)8$>I!'!EH%8$PF$%E$!HI!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#!O!'%&!'!>'7#$!'%&!=%E7$'8=%#!%F*9$7!HI! @=8=)H781!F%&HF9)$&>:!8)'%&8!HF)!'8!)?$!*H8)!)?7$')$%$&!'7$'!5T7$%H)!$)!'>M1!UCCB6M!TF7)?$7*H7$1!8>HG!
! B IP 56 ! 7$A7H&FE)=H%!7')$8!&F7=%#!7'A=&!E>=*')$!E?'%#$!*':!>=*=)!)?$!AH88=9>$!7$>HE')=H%!HI!%')=@$!8A$E=$8!5(3--1! UCCW96M!
3. Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Marine Ecosystems
]=H>H#=E'>!=*A'E)8!'7$!*H8)!>=K$>:!)H!9$!$@=&$%)!=%!'7$'8!G?$7$!)?$!G$')?$7!A'))$7%8!'7$!E?'%#=%#!*H8)! &7'*')=E'>>:1!=M$M!)?$!ZH88!;$'!'%&!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!7$#=H%8M!(%!)?$!%H7)?G$8)$7%!D$&&$>>!'%&! 8HF)?$7%!]$>>=%#8?'F8$%!8$'8!5aH*'EK!$)!'>M1!UCC061!8F7I'E$!'=7!)$*A$7')F7$!7$EH7&81!7$@$'>!'!G'7*=%#!=%! G=%)$7!HI!BfY!-!H@$7!)?$!A'8)!BC!:$'781!'!G'7*=%#!7')$!)?')!$LE$$&8!'%:!H)?$7!H98$7@$&!#>H9'>>:!5c'F#?'%!$)! '>M!UCC0V!aFEK>HG1!UCCW6M!<%!)?$!H)?$7!?'%&1!EHH>=%#!=8!HEEF77=%#!=%!)?$!ZH88!;$'\G$8)$7%!3'E=I=E!8$E)H7!HI! )?$!EH%)=%$%)M!
A. Antarctic Peninsula: fastest warming on Earth
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B. Observed changes: big and small, shallow and deep
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! W IP 56 ! C. Future scenarios
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(%!'&&=)=H%1!7$#=H%'>!G'7*=%#!E'%!?'@$!8F9)>$!$II$E)8!H%!)?$!IHH&!G$9!'8!'!G?H>$M!,?$7$!=8!=%E7$'8=%#! $@=&$%E$!)?')!)?$!%$)GH7K!HI!*'%:!G$'K!=%)$7'E)=H%8!A>':!'%!=*AH7)'%)!7H>$!=%!8)'9=>=Q=%#!EH**F%=)=$8! 5]$7>HG1!/4446!'%&!'>8H!)?')!)?$!&$#7$$!HI!H*%=@H7:!$L$7)8!'!8)7H%#!$II$E)!H%!$EH8:8)$*!IF%E)=H%=%#!'%&! 8)'9=>=):!5]7F%H!'%&!
! [ IP 56 ! 4. References
"=%>$:1!aMhM1!->'7K$1!2MaM1!"77=#H1!gM1!T7'8$71!DMZM1!g')H1!"M1!]'7)H%1!gMXM!'%&!3MZM!D=>8H%M!UCCBM!a$E'&'>O 8E'>$!E?'%#$8!=%!)?$!E>=*')$!'%&!9=H)'!HI!)?$!3'E=I=E!8$E)H7!HI!)?$!;HF)?$7%!
! 4 IP 56 ! 2&G'7&81!XM"M!/4[CM!"%!$LA$7=*$%)'>!=%)7H&FE)=H%!HI!@'8EF>'7!A>'%)8!I7H*!;HF)?!h$H7#='!)H!)?$!*'7=)=*$! "%)'7E)=EM!]7=)=8?!"%)'7E)=E!;F7@$:!]F>>$)=%1!`41!W0!f[CM! ! 2&G'7&81!XM"M!'%&!aM.M1!h7$$%$M!/4W0M!,?$!8F7@=@'>!HI!T'>K>'%&8!(8>'%&!)7'%8A>'%)8!')!;HF)?!h$H7#='!'%&! ;=#%:!(8>'%&1!;HF)?!<7K%$:!(8>'%&8M!]7=)=8?!"%)'7E)=E!;F7@$:!]F>>$)=%1!00O0`1!00!f`BM! ! 2*8>=$1!;MaM!'%&!DM3M!3'))$78H%M!UCCWM!"97FA)!7$E$%)!8?=I)!=%!!/0-!'%&!!/BS!@'>F$8!=%!"&_>=$!A$%#F=%! $##8?$>>!=%!"%)'7E)=E'M!37HE$$&=%#8!HI!)?$!S')=H%'>!"E'&$*:!HI!;E=$%E$81!/C`5U[61!//YYYO//YY4M! ! 2*8>=$1!;aM!UCC/M!Z'&=HE'79H%!&')$8!I7H*!'9'%&H%$&!A$%#F=%!EH>H%=$8!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'!7$#=H%M! "%)'7E)!;E=$%E$1!/01!U[4fU4BM! ! TH7E'&'!XM1!,7')?'%1!3MSM1!Z$=&1!gM1!.F7A?:1!2MXM!'%&!XM3M!-7HL'>>M!UCCYM!-H%)7'8)=%#!AHAF>')=H%!E?'%#$8!=%! 8:*A')7=E!A$%#F=%!8A$E=$8!G=)?!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#M!h>H9'>!-?'%#$!]=H>H#:1!/U1!`//O`U0M! ! TH7E'&'1!XM1!,7')?'%1!3MSM1!Z$=&1!gM!'%&!2MXM!.F7A?:M!UCCBM!,?$!$II$E)8!HI!#>H9'>!E>=*')$!@'7='9=>=):!=%!AFA! A7H&FE)=H%!HI!"%)'7E)=E!IF7!8$'>8M!2EH>H#:1![Y1!U`C[OU`/WM! ! THG9$7)1!XM"M1!'%&!ZM(MiM!;*=)?M!/44`M!Z'A=&!AHAF>')=H%!=%E7$'8$8!=%!%')=@$!@'8EF>'7!A>'%)8!=%!)?$!"7#$%)=%$! (8>'%&81!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!"7E)=E!'%&!">A=%$!Z$8$'7E?!1!UY1!U4COU4YM! ! T7'8$71!DM!ZM!'%&!2M!2M!eHI*'%%M!UCC0M!!"!A7$&')H7r8!A$78A$E)=@$!H%!E'F8'>!>=%K8!9$)G$$%!E>=*')$!E?'%#$1! A?:8=E'>!IH7E=%#!'%&!$EH8:8)$*!7$8AH%8$M!.'7=%$!2EH>H#:!37H#7$88!;$7=$81!UYB1!!/O/BM! ! T7$%H)1!pM1!-?HG%1!;MiM1!D?=%'*1!XM1!;$>K=7K1!3M1!-H%@$:1!3M1!;KH)%=EK=1!.M!'%&!aM!]$7#8)7H*M!UCCBM! ]=H>H#=E'>!=%@'8=H%8!=%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E+!$L)$%)1!=*A'E)8!'%&!=*A>=E')=H%8M!]=H>H#=E'>!Z$@=$G81![C1!`BOWUM! ! T7$%H)1!pM1!-H%@$:1!3M1!i$9HF@=$71!.M1!-?HG%1!;MiM1!D?=%'*1!XM!;$>K=7KM1!3M.M1!;KH)%=EK=1!.M1!s!]$7#8)7H*1! aM.M!5=%!A7$886M!]=H>H#=E'>!=%@'8=H%8+!'%!$%@=7H%*$%)'>!=88F$!IH7!"%)'7E)=E'!'%&!)?$!8F9O"%)'7E)=EM!">=$%8!=%! "%)'7E)=E'M!DH7K8?HA!37HE$$&=%#81!h')$G':!"%)'7E)=E'1!-?7=8)E?F7E?1!S$G!^$'>'%&M! ! hH%1!
! /C IP 56 ! X$%HF@7=$71!;M1!eM!D$=*$78K=7E?1!-M!]'797'F&1!pMOeM!3'7K1!'%&!]M!-'Q$>>$8M!UCCB'M!2@=&$%E$!HI!'!8?=I)!=%!)?$! E:E>=E=):!HI!"%)'7E)=E!8$'9=7&!&:%'*=E8!>=%K$&!)H!E>=*')$M!37HE$$&=%#8!HI!)?$!ZH:'>!;HE=$):!]1!UWU1![[WO[4BM! !! X$%HF@7=$71!;M1!]'797'F&1!-M!'%&!eM!D$=*$78K=7E?M!UCCB9M!iH%#O)$7*!EH%)7'8)$&!7$8AH%8$8!)H!E>=*')$!HI!)GH! "%)'7E)=E!8$'9=7&!8A$E=$8M!2EH>H#:1![Y5//61!U[[4OU4C0M! ! gHEK1!gOeM!/44UM!"%)'7E)=E!I=8?!'%&!I=8?$7=$8M!-'*97=$!R%=@$78=):!37$881!-'*97=$!'%&!S$G!pH7KM! ! i$'A$71!ZM1!-HHK$1!XM1!,7')?'%1!3M1!Z$=&1!gM1!ZHG%)7$$1!cM!'%&!ZM!3':%$M!UCCYM!h>H9'>!E>=*')$!&7=@$8! 8HF)?$7%!7=#?)!G?'>$!52F9'>'$%'!'F8)7'>=86!AHAF>')=H%!&:%'*=E8M!]=H>H#:!>$))$781!U5U61!U[4OU4UM! ! 3'F>:1!aM1!-?7=8)='%8$%1!cM1!a'>8#''7&1!XM1!T7H$8$71!ZM!'%&!TM!,H77$8!X7M!/44[M!T=8?=%#!&HG%!*'7=%$!IHH&! G$98M!;E=$%E$1!UW41![YCO[Y0M!! ! 3'F>:1!aM1!'%&!.MiM!3'>H*'7$8M!UCCBM!T=8?=%#!&HG%!*'7=%$!IHH&!G$98+!=)!=8!I'7!*H7$!A$7@'8=@$!)?'%!G$! )?HF#?)M!]F>>$)=%!HI!.'7=%$!;E=$%E$1!WY1/4WOU//M!! ! ! 3'7K=%8H%1!-MiM!UCCUM!,7$%&8!=%!)?$!>$%#)?!HI!)?$!;HF)?$7%!
! // IP 56 ! c'F#?'%1!aMhM1!.'78?'>>1!hMXM1!-H%%H>>$:1!DM.M1!3'7K=%8H%1!-M1!.F>@'%$:1!ZM1!eHH%1!aM"M1!g=%#1!XM-M1! 3F&8$:!-MXM!'%&!XM!,F7%$7M!UCC0M!Z$E$%)!7'A=&!7$#=H%'>!E>=*')$!G'7*=%#!H%!)?$!"%)'7E)=E!3$%=%8F>'M!->=*')=E! -?'%#$1!YC1!U`0OUW`M!! ! D$=*$78K=7E?1!eM1!(%E?'F8)=1!3M1!hF=%$)1!-M!'%&!-M!]'797'F&M!UCC0M!,7$%&8!=%!9=7&!'%&!8$'>!AHAF>')=H%8!'8! =%&=E')H78!HI!'!8:8)$*!8?=I)!=%!)?$!;HF)?$7%!
!
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