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Climate Change and Biodiversity

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Climate Change and Biodiversity OMM PNUE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY IPCC Technical Paper V IN T E R G O V E R N M E N T AL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP Climate Change and Biodiversity Edited by Habiba Gitay Avelino Suárez Robert T. Watson Australian National University Ministry of Science, Technology, The World Bank and Environment (Cuba) David Jon Dokken University Corporation for Atmospheric Research This is a Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change prepared in response to a request from the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. The material herein has undergone expert and government review, but has not been considered by the Panel for possible acceptance or approval. April 2002 This paper was prepared under the auspices of the IPCC Chair, Dr. Robert T. Watson, and administered by the IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit. © 2002, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISBN: 92-9169-104-7 Contents Preface . .v Executive Summary . .1 1. Background and Genesis of the Request for the Technical Paper . .3 2. In t ro d u c t i o n . .3 2. 1 . Definition of Biodiversity in the Context of this Paper . .3 2. 2 . Importance of Biodiversity . .3 2. 3 . Pressures on Biodiversity from Human Ac t i v i t i e s . .3 2. 4 . IPCC Definitions of Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation . .4 3. Observed Changes in Climate . .4 3. 1 . Observed Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Ae r o s o l s . .4 3. 2 . Observed Changes in Earth’s Surface Temperature and Precipitation . .5 3. 3 . Observed Changes in Snow Cover, Sea and River Ice, Glaciers, and Sea Level . .6 3. 4 . Observed Changes in Climate Var i a b i l i t y . .7 3. 5 . Observed Changes in Extreme Climatic Events . .7 4. Pr ojected Changes in Climate . .7 4. 1 . Projected Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Ae r o s o l s . .9 4. 2 . Projected Changes in Earth’s Surface Temperature and Precipitation . .10 4. 3 . Projected Changes in Climate Variability and Extreme Climatic Events . .11 4. 4 . Projected Changes in Snow Cover, Sea and River Ice, Glaciers, and Sea Level . .11 5. Observed Changes in Ter r estrial and Marine Ecosystems Associated with Climate Change . .11 5. 1 . Observed Changes in Terrestrial (including Freshwater) Species Distributions, Population Sizes, and Community Composition . .11 5. 2 . Observed Changes in Coastal and Marine Systems . .13 6. Pr ojected Impacts of Changes in Mean Climate and Extreme Climatic Events on Ter r estrial (including Aquatic) and Marine Ecosystems . .14 6. 1 . Modeling Approaches Used for Projecting Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and the Biodiversity within Th e m . .15 6. 2 . Projected Impacts on the Biodiversity of Terrestrial and Freshwater Systems . .16 6. 2 . 1 . Projected Impacts on Individuals, Populations, Species, and Ecosystems . .16 6. 2 . 2 . Biodiversity and Changes in Productivity . .19 6. 3 . Projected Impacts on Biodiversity of Coastal and Marine Ecosystems . .20 6. 3 . 1 . Projected Impacts on Ecosystems in Coastal Regions . .20 6. 3 . 2 . Projected Impacts on Marine Ecosystems . .21 6. 4 . Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Coastal, and Marine) . .22 6. 5 . Impacts of Changes in Biodiversity on Regional and Global Climate . .23 6. 6 . Projected Impacts on Traditional and Indigenous Peoples . .23 6. 7 . Regional Impacts . .24 7. Potential Impacts on Biodiversity of Activities Undertaken to Mitigate Climate Change . .35 7. 1 . Potential Impact of Af forestation, Reforestation, and Avoided Deforestation on Biodiversity . .35 7. 1 . 1 . Potential Impacts of Reducing Deforestation on Biodiversity . .36 7. 1 . 2 . Potential Impacts of Af forestation and Reforestation on Biodiversity . .36 iv Contents 7. 2 . Potential Impacts on Biodiversity of Land Management for Climate Mitigation Purposes . .37 7. 2 . 1 . Potential Impacts of Ag r o f o r e s t r y . .37 7. 2 . 2 . Potential Impacts of Forest Management . .37 7. 2 . 3 . Potential Impacts of Agriculture Sector Mitigation Ac t i v i t i e s . .37 7. 2 . 4 . Potential Impacts of Grassland and Grazing Land Management . .37 7. 3 . Potential Impacts of Changing Energy Technologies on Biodiversity . .37 7. 3 . 1 . Ef ficient Wood Stoves and Biogas for Cooking and their Potential Impacts on Biodiversity . .37 7. 3 . 2 . Potential Impacts of Increased Use of Biomass Energy . .38 7. 3 . 3 . Potential Impacts of Hydropower . .39 7. 3 . 4 . Potential Impacts of Win d p o w e r . .40 7. 3 . 5 . Potential Impacts of Solar Power . .40 7. 3 . 6 . Potential Impacts of Carbon Storage . .40 7. 4 . Potential Impacts of Biological Uptake in Oceans . .41 8. Adaptation Activities and Biodiversity . .41 8. 1 . Potential Adaptation Options to Alleviate Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity . .41 8. 2 . Consequences of Adaptation Activities on Ecosystems and Biodiversity . .42 8. 3 . Sy n e r gies between Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity and Climate Change . .43 9. Ap p r oaches that can be Used to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Activities on Biodiversity and OtherAspects of Sustainable Development . .43 10 . Identified Information and Assessment Gaps . .44 Ac k n o w l e d g m e n t s . .45 Ap p e n d i c e s A. List of Relevant Literature Related to Biodiversity and Climate Change Published since 1999–2000 . .47 B. Glossary of Ter m s . ..
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