Studies in Systems, Decision and Control

Volume 361

Series Editor Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland The series “Studies in Systems, Decision and Control” (SSDC) covers both new developments and advances, as well as the state of the art, in the various areas of broadly perceived systems, decision making and control–quickly, up to date and with a high quality. The intent is to cover the theory, applications, and perspectives on the state of the art and future developments relevant to systems, decision making, control, complex processes and related areas, as embedded in the ﬁelds of engineering, computer science, physics, economics, social and life sciences, as well as the paradigms and methodologies behind them. The series contains monographs, textbooks, lecture notes and edited volumes in systems, decision making and control spanning the areas of Cyber-Physical Systems, Autonomous Systems, Sensor Networks, Control Systems, Energy Systems, Automotive Systems, Biological Systems, Vehicular Networking and Connected Vehicles, Aerospace Systems, Automation, Manufacturing, Smart Grids, Nonlinear Systems, Power Systems, Robotics, Social Systems, Economic Systems and other. Of particular value to both the contributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide distribution and exposure which enable both a wide and rapid dissemination of research output. Indexed by SCOPUS, DBLP, WTI Frankfurt eG, zbMATH, SCImago. All books published in the series are submitted for consideration in Web of Science.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13304 Nina Dobrinkova · Georgi Gadzhev Editors

Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks Selected Papers from the 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster RISKs (EnviroRISKs) Editors Nina Dobrinkova Georgi Gadzhev Institute of Information National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Communication Technologies and Geography Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IICT-BAS) (NIGGG-BAS) Soﬁa, Bulgaria Soﬁa, Bulgaria

ISSN 2198-4182 ISSN 2198-4190 (electronic) Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ISBN 978-3-030-70189-5 ISBN 978-3-030-70190-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70190-1

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Organization

The 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks (ENVIRORISKs 2020) was held as an online participation event between 29 and 30 September 2020 Soﬁa, Bulgaria.

Conference Co-chairs

Kostadin Ganev, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Bulgaria) Nina Dobrinkova, Institute of Information and Communication Technologies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Bulgaria) Georgi Gadzhev, National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy, and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Bulgaria) Nikolay Miloshev, National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy, and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Bulgaria) Petya Trifonova, National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy, and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Bulgaria) Stelian Dimitrov, Soﬁa University (Bulgaria)

Program Committee

Alexander Arakelyan, American University in Armenia, Armenia Artemi Cerdà, University of Valencia, Spain Anna Ganeva, Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Aleksandar Petrovski, University “Goce Delcev” Stip and Military Academy “General Mihailo Apostolski” Skopje, North Macedonia Bojko Berov, Geological Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Chuck Bushey, International Association of Wildland Fire, USA

v vi Organization

Christos Dimopoulos, European University Cyprus, Cyprus Constantin Ionescu, National Institute for Research and Development for Earth Physics, Romania Dimitrios Melas, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Dimcho Solakov, National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Evangelos Katsaros, European University Cyprus, Cyprus George Boustras, European University Cyprus, Cyprus George Drakatos, National Observatory of Athens, Greece Georgios Eftychidis, Centre for Security Studies—KEMEA, Greece Geert Seynaeve, European Society for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Belgium Hrachya Astsatryan, Institute for Informatics and Automation Problems, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, Armenia Harald Pauli, Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments, Austria Hristo Chervenkov, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria Horst Schwichtenberg, Fraunhofer SCAI, Germany Ilias Gkotsis, Centre for Security Studies—KEMEA, Greece Ivan Georgiev, National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy, and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Jesús Rodrigo-Comino, University of Valencia, Spain, and Trier University, Germany Kristalina Stoykova, Geological Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Nikolai Dobrev, Geological Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Reneta Dimitrova, Soﬁa University and National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy, and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Roberto San Jose, Technical University of Madrid, Spain Snejana Moncheva, Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Stefan Florin Balan, National Institute for Research and Development for Earth Physics, Romania Tania Marinova, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria Todor Gurov, Institute of Information and Communication Technologies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Velichka Milousheva, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria Viacheslav Berman, Institute of Hydromechanics at National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine Yancho Todorov, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Finland Preface

Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks topics are challenging fields that scientific world is trying to address as much as it can. Earthquakes, floods, fires, droughts, blizzards, dust storms, natural releases of toxic gases and liquids, diseases, and other environmental variations affect hundreds of millions of people each year. Many disaster events are triggered by human activities. Examples that affect the envi- ronment and natural biodiversity are activities such as adding contaminants to air and water, changing land use, reducing and fragmenting the habitat of some species, introducing non-native species, and changing natural fluxes and cycles of energy and materials. The challenges associated with environmental protection today are multi- faceted and affected by many interacting factors. Usually, they cover various, often large, spatial scales, unfold on long temporal scales, and have global implications (e.g. carbon dynamics, nutrient cycles, and ocean acidification). Dealing with these problems will require systems thinking and integrating multidisciplinary science. Actions in these directions are taken more and more in the recent years by political bodies, NGOs, and scientific groups trying to find sustainable solutions for the future generations. Every point of view matters when it comes to our global home—The Planet Earth. This volume is a result of discussions done during the International Conference on “Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks”, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2020, held as online participation event in the period 29–30 September 2020. The participants have agreed that the relevance of the conference topic and quality of the contributions have clearly suggested that a more comprehensive collection of extended contributions devoted to the area would be very welcome and would certainly bring value to a wider public in the field of Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks. The topics covered by this volume are: Air pollution, climate and health, natural hazards and risks, water

vii viii Preface resources, human activities and management and informatics, remote sensing, high performance computing and GIS for environmental monitoring and management.

Soﬁa, Bulgaria Nina Dobrinkova January 2021 Georgi Gadzhev Editors of Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks ENVIRORISKs 2020 Contents

Air Pollution, Climate and Health Effects of Satellite Data Assimilation in Air Quality Modelling in Bulgaria ...... 3 Dimiter Syrakov, Maria Prodanova, and Emilia Georgieva Degree-Days and Agro-meteorological Indices in CMIP5 RCP8.5 Future Climate—Results for Central and Southeast Europe ...... 19 Hristo Chervenkov, Georgi Gadzhev, Vladimir Ivanov, and Kostadin Ganev Assessment of the Joint Quantiles of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Future Climate Projections over Europe ...... 31 Hristo Chervenkov, Georgi Gadzhev, Vladimir Ivanov, and Kostadin Ganev Coastal Boundary-Layer Characteristic During Night Time Using a Long-Term Acoustic Remote Sensing Data ...... 43 Damyan Barantiev and Ekaterina Batchvarova Climatological Study of Extreme Wind Events in a Coastal Area ...... 59 Damyan Barantiev, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Hristina Kirova, and Orlin Gueorguiev Anthropogenic and Solar Inﬂuence on Temperature over Bulgaria ..... 75 Yavor Chapanov Chemical Characteristics of Precipitation and Cloud Water at High Elevation Site in Bulgaria ...... 91 Elena Hristova, Blagorodka Veleva, Krum Velchev, and Emilia Georgieva Performance of Operational Chemical Transport Models for Particulate Matter Concentrations in Bulgaria ...... 107 Hristina Kirova, Nadya Neykova, and Emilia Georgieva

ix x Contents

Study of the Extreme Thermal Conditions for the Sofia Region—Preliminary Results ...... 123 Vladimir Ivanov and Reneta Dimitrova Interaction Between Particulate Matter Characteristics and Atmospheric Boundary Height Over Sofia Based on Case Studies ...... 139 Plamen Savov, Nikolay Kolev, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Hristina Kirova, and Maria Kolarova The Seasonal Recurrence of Air Quality Index for the Period 2008–2019 Over the Territory of Sofia City ...... 161 Georgi Gadzhev Modelling of the Seasonal Sulphur and Nitrogen Depositions over the Balkan Peninsula by CMAQ and EMEP-MSC-W ...... 171 Georgi Gadzhev and Vladimir Ivanov The Use of LES CFD Urban Models and Mesoscale Air Quality Models for Urban Air Quality Simulations ...... 185 R. San Jose, J. L. Pérez, and R. M. Gonzalez-Barras Urban Heat Island and Future Projections: A Study in Thessaloniki, Greece ...... 201 Stavros Keppas, Daphne Parliari, Serafeim Kontos, Anastasia Poupkou, Sofia Papadogiannaki, Paraskevi Tzoumaka, Apostolos Kelessis, and Melas Dimitrios Chemical Characteristics of Flue Gas Particulates: An Experimental Investigation ...... 213 Tsvetelina Petrova, Iliyana Naydenova, Ricardo Ferreira, Yordanka Karakirova, and Mário Costa

Natural Hazards and Risks Spatial Variation of Precursory Seismic Quiescence Observed Before Earthquake from 01.04.2010 in the Region of Crete ...... 231 Emil Oynakov, Dimcho Solakov, Irena Aleksandrova, and Yordan Milkov Earthquake Ground Motion Scenarios for the City of Ruse ...... 243 Dimcho Solakov, Stela Simeonova, Plamena Raykova, Boyko Rangelov, and Constantin Ionescu Precipitation Chemistry in Bulgaria During Saharan Dust Outbreaks ...... 263 Emilia Georgieva, Elena Hristova, and Blagorodka Veleva Contents xi

Modelling a Composite Tsunami Scenario for Karpathos Island (Aegean Sea) ...... 279 Lyuba Dimova, Reneta Raykova, Gianluca Pagnoni, Alberto Armigliato, and Stefano Tinti Seismic Scenario and People Exposure for Blagoevgrad Region, Bulgaria ...... 293 Petya Trifonova, Dimcho Solakov, Stela Simeonova, Metodi Metodiev, and Stefan Florin Balan

Informatics, Remote Sensing, High Performance Computing and GIS for Environmental Monitoring and Management Forecasting the Propagation of HF Radio Waves Over Bulgaria ...... 309 Rumiana Bojilova and Plamen Mukhtarov Wildﬁre Risk Reduction Based on Landscape Management ...... 325 Nina Dobrinkova, Carlos Trindade, Craig Hope, Chuck Bushey, Alexander Held, Ciaran Nugent, Georgios Eftychidis, Adrián Cardil, George Boustras, and Evangelos Katsaros Numerical Weather Prediction for the Bulgarian Antarctic Base Area and Sensitivity to the SST Variable ...... 339 Boriana Chtirkova, Elisaveta Peneva, and Gergana Georgieva

Water Resources, Human Activities and Management Value Eco-Innovation as a Basis for Clean Production Through Ecodesign in the Bulgarian Food Industry ...... 359 Silviya Topleva, Tsvetko Prokopov, and Donka Taneva Porewater Nutrient and Oxygen Proﬁles and Sediment-Water Interface Fluxes Under Extreme Organic Loading in Different Sedimentary Habitats in Sozopol Bay (SW Black Sea): A Laboratory Experiment ...... 371 Stefania Klayn, Dimitar Berov, and Ventzislav Karamﬁlov Remote Sensing and Modelling of the Mopang Oil Pollution Near the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast ...... 383 Irina Gancheva and Elisaveta Peneva